The 92 point myth

[NAnstonblade]

All I've read pretty much everywhere since it was announced that Wilder has gone/was going is that the owners are mad to sack him because he got us to 92 points last season. The new manager allegedly won't get us to 92 points again as only Wilder could achieve this.

I'm going to call b/s on this myth.

We were inconsistent all season and (play offs aside), we only put in a decent performance over 90 minutes in a handful of matches. In the remainder we were either good half/bad half or poor altogther. We ground out results and relied heavily on luck. It wasn't good management or tactical nuance that won a lot of these games, it was luck. That luck ran out towards the end of the season.

In the last ten games of the season we won four, drew two and lost four. We only won two of our last seven league matches.

Wilder showed no sign of changing his methods.

To say we won't get 92 points again is arguably accurate as the odds are that Wilder himself wouldn't get 92 points again. There is no way that we could play another entire season again in this manner and expect to fluke our way to results through luck again. It's a miracle that we got that amount playing the way we did last season.

"But Wilder would change the way we play next season."

Really? Then why didn't he last season?

"He didn't have the players he needed to suit his tactics."

Then change the tactics to suit what you have and he had January to address this where he was backed by the owners, but he didn't.

I'm sick to death of reading about the 92 points without people acknowledging the poor form at the end of the season and the poor performances all season.

I can handle not getting to 92 points again next season if it means no more disjointed, inconsistent performances and no more square pegs in round holes. We have a far better chance of going up and staying up by playing well than we do by grinding out undeserved results playing crap football with central midfielders and strikers on the wings.

Other fans will only see the final league table and think we're mad. They didn't watch the crap football that we had to watch to get there. Just like some of our fans are judging Selles on results only. They don't tell the whole story and don't entirely define a manager.

Wilder wasn't "sacked" because he didn't get us promoted. He was "sacked" because of everything else.

If you're going to keep quoting 92 points then at least be honest and acknowledge how we got to 92 points and the poor performances and negative tactics throughout the season getting there that continued all the way to the last game of the season.

Good post I agree with you

 

[The Bohemian]

I'm not saying all of it was luck, but there were a lot of games which we won that we shouldn't have and didn't deserve to. Luck played a part in the final outcome. We ground out more results than Leeds or Burnley had to and made a lot of games very difficult for ourselves. That was my main point. If we played the same way next season as we did last season then I highly doubt we'd equal that tally and would fall short.

The data, which our new owners love, supports your point that Leeds (by far the highest budget) and Burnley (next highest budget) had far better goal difference than the Blades. So probably ground out less results. We had the third highest budget and were well ahead of every other club on points and goal difference. So ground out less results than every other team. That’s not “luck” that’s running to form.

 

[Bartleby]

You have to give people time to grieve. A fair amount of the fanbase felt a truly special connection with Wilder and feel that has been unnecessarily taken away from them. I'll be surprised if things are still this raw in August. Obviously you'll still get people who won't trust the board because they got rid of Wilder but that happened with The Prince and it didn't effect us.

In a few weeks people will have calmed down but you need to give it time. I imagine Selles will get a great reception at the first home game as despite how it seems at times, 99% of fans want him to do well and the 1% don't simply because they think it means there is a chance that Wilder might come back

I'm grieving more about that playoff final than I am about this.

 

[alcoblade]

The gamble: making sense of the Chris Wilder sacking

Ben Meakin weighs up the risks, rewards, and reasoning behind a bold decision by new ownership—and why he's ready to roll the dice on a new era at Bramall Lane.

open.substack.com

A bit of balance on the subject, the Wilderites won’t like it, Blades fans will be able to read it with an open mind.

Makes a point about Wilder working with people he knows all the time, and seemingly misses the point that Selles has just brought two of his men in.

It happens in football.

 

[Greg.]

 

[alcoblade]

Have a read of this. I think he's nailed it.

The gamble: making sense of the Chris Wilder sacking

Ben Meakin weighs up the risks, rewards, and reasoning behind a bold decision by new ownership—and why he's ready to roll the dice on a new era at Bramall Lane.

www.thepinch.uk

My thoughts are that the majority of fans against the new appointment are from the older generation (no offence intended).
Football has moved on, and it's moved on very quickly in the past 5-10years.

There's a lot of our fanbase who think football is still played with fast wingers down the flanks to whip balls into a target man - "gerrit forrard!".
How many times do you hear groans in the crowd when after 3 or 4 passes into midfield, it eventually comes back to the GK to try and start again. It's all about the press now, and how to beat that press whether going through it, or over it.

Gone are the days of an Overmars, Giggs or Beckham type winger. The best "wingers" these days are Salah, Foden, Grealish etc. these aren't "wingers" as we used to know them, but they play out wide, where wingers used to play. But they don't hug the line like days of old, they drift all over the place. They're hybrid players that operate out wide, as an attacking midfielder and even as strikers.

That's just a couple of examples as to how the game has evolved on the pitch... off the pitch it's evolved too. It's data driven. The United buzzword for this is "AI". This has scared the shit out of our older fans - "what's wrong wi sendin a bluddy scout to gu an watch um?"

When they say AI, they mean data driven transfers. They'll input key stats into the system and tweak it to suit the type of player they need.
Do people think that the Leicester scouts just randomly turned up at a Le Havre game and luckily stumbled across Mahrez? Did Brentford just randomly bump into Mbuemo in the Troyes town centre? Brighton have picked up Barco, Mac Allister and Buonanotte as youngsters from Argentina. They won't have scouts just sat watching games over there hoping to find a gem - they'll gather the data then visit when it seems worthwhile.

I think the fans who are dead against this shift are more scared than disappointed. It's outside their comfort zone. As the article above states - are there any other clubs so reliant on having staff who "get the club"? Maybe it's that mentality that's held us back all these years

¡Vamos, hagámoslo!

My Blades Wattsapp mates group has about 30 members - all the younger lads (20-30) wanted Wilder to stay, and are gutted to a man. The older end (me included) are much more critical of Wilder, though the two who dislike him the most didn't want him sacked.

It's only a small sample, I'd accept.

 

[mattbianco1]

My Blades Wattsapp mates group has about 30 members - all the younger lads (20-30) wanted Wilder to stay, and are gutted to a man. The older end (me included) are much more critical of Wilder, though the two who dislike him the most didn't want him sacked.

It's only a small sample, I'd accept.

See mines the opposite.
It seems to be the >60s that feel it was the wrong decision. One of which has totally written Selles off as a result. Even gone so far in saying that his interview was monotone and rehearsed

Some people get too attached and don't like change.

I like Wilder. He's given us some fantastic seasons (and also a couple of terrible ones). He'll always be a legend for me.
I think Wilder would have got us promoted next season, but I also don't think he's the right person to keep us in the PL

 

[alcoblade]

See mines the opposite.
It seems to be the >60s that feel it was the wrong decision. One of which has totally written Selles off as a result. Even gone so far in saying that his interview was monotone and rehearsed

Some people get too attached and don't like change.

I like Wilder. He's given us some fantastic seasons (and also a couple of terrible ones). He'll always be a legend for me.
I think Wilder would have got us promoted next season, but I also don't think he's the right person to keep us in the PL

I agree with all the above. My only point of difference is that it's probably impossible to find a manager to keep us in the premier league, given finance and the state of modern football. I think we'll actually go backwards if we worry too much about that.

 

[Houston_Blade]

Makes a point about Wilder working with people he knows all the time, and seemingly misses the point that Selles has just brought two of his men in.

It happens in football.

Danny Wilson and Frank Barlow did the same

 

[alcoblade]

Danny Wilson and Frank Barlow did the same

They just about all so it don't they?

 

[Houston_Blade]

They just about all so it don't they?

Ange and Monty are the new superpower

 

[Toronto Blade]

Regardless of what anyone thought of the performances, you don’t get 92 points in a season by luck. We got them by being one of the most effectives sides in the division - it wasn’t pretty, but it secured us our biggest points tally I think we’ve ever had in this division. That absolutely deserves recognition.

It’s perfectly reasonable for folk to question the decision to allow Wilder to leave after the season we’ve just had. Personally, I’m doubtful Selles will better last season but I’m always willing to get behind a new regime and am excited to see where we go.

One bad week killed the Blades chances where they lost 3 games in that important week

 

[alcoblade]

One bad week killed the Blades chances where they lost 3 games in that important week

If we'd won all three we still would've finished third.

 

[Toronto Blade]

If we'd won all three we still would've finished third.

True but I believe those 3 games broke the confidence

If we'd won all three we still would've finished third.

Not just the players confidence but also the owners confidence in Wilder

 

[Nick Jansky]

If we'd won all three we still would've finished third.

We would have been far better set for the Burnley game though, and Burnley and Leeds would have been feeling much more pressure.

 

[wak1889]

The disappointing thing was how our wheels fell off in the last 7 regular games. We rode our luck early on in the 1st play off game, if that shot had not hit the bar from Bristol City but went in, it could have been a different story. Bizarrely we had the opportunity to win the league and not get a single point from either Leeds or Burnley, wins against Oxford, Plymouth, Millwall and Blackburn would have seen us to 101 points. All 4 of those fixtures if you truly have Champions ability should have been won. 2 at home, 2 away too.

We would still have come 3rd on 99 knowing us

 

[jt64]

View attachment 213882

This shows how much these sorts of models seemingly underestimate, or ignore completely, the value of a good goalkeeper.

 

[Wizard]

Have a read of this. I think he's nailed it.

The gamble: making sense of the Chris Wilder sacking

Ben Meakin weighs up the risks, rewards, and reasoning behind a bold decision by new ownership—and why he's ready to roll the dice on a new era at Bramall Lane.

www.thepinch.uk

My thoughts are that the majority of fans against the new appointment are from the older generation (no offence intended).
Football has moved on, and it's moved on very quickly in the past 5-10years.

There's a lot of our fanbase who think football is still played with fast wingers down the flanks to whip balls into a target man - "gerrit forrard!".
How many times do you hear groans in the crowd when after 3 or 4 passes into midfield, it eventually comes back to the GK to try and start again. It's all about the press now, and how to beat that press whether going through it, or over it.

Gone are the days of an Overmars, Giggs or Beckham type winger. The best "wingers" these days are Salah, Foden, Grealish etc. these aren't "wingers" as we used to know them, but they play out wide, where wingers used to play. But they don't hug the line like days of old, they drift all over the place. They're hybrid players that operate out wide, as an attacking midfielder and even as strikers.

That's just a couple of examples as to how the game has evolved on the pitch... off the pitch it's evolved too. It's data driven. The United buzzword for this is "AI". This has scared the shit out of our older fans - "what's wrong wi sendin a bluddy scout to gu an watch um?"

When they say AI, they mean data driven transfers. They'll input key stats into the system and tweak it to suit the type of player they need.
Do people think that the Leicester scouts just randomly turned up at a Le Havre game and luckily stumbled across Mahrez? Did Brentford just randomly bump into Mbuemo in the Troyes town centre? Brighton have picked up Barco, Mac Allister and Buonanotte as youngsters from Argentina. They won't have scouts just sat watching games over there hoping to find a gem - they'll gather the data then visit when it seems worthwhile.

I think the fans who are dead against this shift are more scared than disappointed. It's outside their comfort zone. As the article above states - are there any other clubs so reliant on having staff who "get the club"? Maybe it's that mentality that's held us back all these years

¡Vamos, hagámoslo!

I'd take slight issue with pointing to the 6th best XG being lower than Wednesday. While true if you look at the XG table you'll notice that all the teams around/above us have far worse defensive numbers. Our xGD was 3rd best in the league and not far behind Burnley. So we finished very much in line with our numbers

Ultimately the 10 point gap was largely due to that terrible week of 3 losses in a row. Up until then we were very much keeping pace and after that the pressure was off the top 2 and we knew we couldn't catch them. I don't think that points gap really reflects a huge downturn in our performance level in the 2nd half of the season more than it does a really poor week of results towards the end. Similar to how Sunderland fans might argue the points gap wasn't a true reflection of the actual quality of both sides.