Points Required For Survival

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metalblade said:
Isn't it time this tread was closed to further replies we were safe weeks ago when we reached 36pts ffs. It wasn't the case then but recent results now have the bottom five teams averaging less than a point per game. Carry this form on and best placed Bournemouth finish the season on 37pts, even 36pts will see one team safe as a lot were saying at the start of the season. It really is a pointless pass time trying to work out scenario's where we could still be relegated it could drive you to madness, it is not going to happen as it wasn't going to happen weeks ago.
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gordoncharles said:
My hope is that when all 38 games have been played, those posters who have been earnestly discussing this will re-visit this thread and realise how completely ridiculous it was.

Thereby saving the board from similar waste-of-time discussions next season.
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You pair of killjoys! :)
 

gordoncharles said:
My hope is that when all 38 games have been played, those posters who have been earnestly discussing this will re-visit this thread and realise how completely ridiculous it was.

Thereby saving the board from similar waste-of-time discussions next season.
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Sorry but this board contains posts of people doing mock ups of kits they like and swapping Panini cards, I find most of that boring as shit but I don’t post on their threads telling them so because that would be boorish.
It’s just maths, no one is saying we’re going down.
 
blade too long said:
there are flaws in your maths

we are safe now as the bottom 4 wont get within 18 points of 56
unless they are allowed to play barcelona psg bayern and juventus in their stead
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That's right , teams below have to win , and we've had our destiny in our hands all season
 
BushBlade said:
Sorry but this board contains posts of people doing mock ups of kits they like and swapping Panini cards, I find most of that boring as shit but I don’t post on their threads telling them so because that would be boorish.
It’s just maths, no one is saying we’re going down.
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I find your attitude telling me that I'm boorish, somewhat boorish
 
Punk Blade said:
This thread is about how many points are required for guaranteed survival in the Premier League which applies to all teams in the league, not just Sheffield United.
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In that case it’s in the wrong forum, it should be in Other Football and Sport

😂😂😂
 
gordoncharles said:
My hope is that when all 38 games have been played, those posters who have been earnestly discussing this will re-visit this thread and realise how completely ridiculous it was.

Thereby saving the board from similar waste-of-time discussions next season.
Click to expand...
You're completely and utterly and totally and fully misunderstanding the thread.
Nobody at all, not one, is even half thinking we might go down.
It is a maths / theoretical brainteaser type thing, to work out the points that could IN THEORY (never, ever , ever, ever at all in practice) see us or any other team relegated.
If you don't like mental puzzle type things, then that's fine too. This isn't a thread that would interest you in the slightest. There's hundreds of other threads to read and post on.
 
gordoncharles said:
My hope is that when all 38 games have been played, those posters who have been earnestly discussing this will re-visit this thread and realise how completely ridiculous it was.

Thereby saving the board from similar waste-of-time discussions next season.
Click to expand...
Your reckless complacency is quite frankly unbelievable
 
Required points per game: 3.36

Made me laugh.

Remember, Norwich's style of football, unlike ours, is ready made for the Prem.
 
Punk Blade said:
I now have it down to 55 points. Man City are also guaranteed top flight football next season; Leicester will soon follow. Here is a mathematically possible final table, with points required to hit the current target of 55.

View attachment 72368
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Reading back your method from the first post. You are saying let the bottom 2 lose everything. All other games result in a winner. Don't you have to make those games be won by the lower placed team to make it worse case? ie if you were in a relegation scrap you'd be wanting the teams below you (and the one/s feasibly catchable above) to lose.
You might have already adjusted your method, and I missed the post...
I'm sure there's still some error because of so many teams still being on 55. For example, we are on 55 rqd, Palace on 54 rqd, despite us currently having 7 points more already?
 

PokerBlade said:
Remember, Norwich's style of football, unlike ours, is ready made for the Prem.
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Yes, when we had Roygbiv 's 'View From' at the start of the season, didn't they all go Bolton (L1 2017) on us?
"I'd rather be in our position than Sheff Utd's"

I would imagine that when they come staight back up next season (100% nailed on) they will have consolidated, rebuilt and will probably go on to win the PL.

Probably.....
 
I should coco said:
Yes, when we had Roygbiv 's 'View From' at the start of the season, didn't they all go Bolton (L1 2017) on us?
"I'd rather be in our position than Sheff Utd's"

I would imagine that when they come staight back up next season (100% nailed on) they will have consolidated, rebuilt and will probably go on to win the PL.

Probably.....
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roysviewfrom.com

Neutral Fans Views On The Blades Win Against Palace — The View From

NORWICH FANS “to me they look like a championship team playing in the prem” “I think Sheff had no problem picking up points against frankly rubbish bottom half Champo teams but raising their level against prem teams every week will be too much.” “if you look at the summer signings Sheffield does...
roysviewfrom.com roysviewfrom.com
 
Jeeez, can't believe the amount of pessimists on here who don't think we are safe yet! Some people just love to take a dour view of life! We are safe. End of thread.

:)
 
Greasy Chap Butty said:
Reading back your method from the first post. You are saying let the bottom 2 lose everything. All other games result in a winner. Don't you have to make those games be won by the lower placed team to make it worse case? ie if you were in a relegation scrap you'd be wanting the teams below you (and the one/s feasibly catchable above) to lose.
You might have already adjusted your method, and I missed the post...
I'm sure there's still some error because of so many teams still being on 55. For example, we are on 55 rqd, Palace on 54 rqd, despite us currently having 7 points more already?
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I’m trying to answer the question of how many points are required to guarantee finishing above 18th, which is basically an exercise in finding the highest possible total for the 18th placed team in the final table. It’s not looking for ‘worst case’ as that would need to be from the point of view of a particular club, but this is the highest possible for 18th as applied across the league.

If the bottom two teams take points off those 18th to (currently) 3rd, then there are fewer points in the pool for those in 3rd to 18th. Let’s say for instance that Norwich still have to play 3rd-10th and Watford still have to play 11th-18th. If they win all those games and get another 24 points each, Norwich would have 46, Watford 55, and the others would be reduced to 51-53, which suggests you would only have to beat 51 to guarantee survival. I’ve produced a set of results that would have 18th on 54 points, so leaving the bottom two behind (and having those already safe also lose their games) to maximise the points available to the rest results in the highest possible total for 18th.

55 and 54 points that you pick out aren't required, they are just the total on this version of the league table, but the results could be cut to have different teams in that 54-56 range. Everyone from 3rd to 18th currently needs 55 to be certain, based on the league table as it stands. For Watford it will also be 55 as we could just swap them out for West Ham.

Norwich are interesting. The most they can get is 51, however their target is probably lower as to reach it they’ll have to take points off everyone else. I haven’t worked it out, so whether it’s as low as 51 I don’t know. I might look at this next to track ‘safe’ from the top, and ‘out of their hands’ from the bottom.
 
Punk Blade said:
I’m trying to answer the question of how many points are required to guarantee finishing above 18th, which is basically an exercise in finding the highest possible total for the 18th placed team in the final table. It’s not looking for ‘worst case’ as that would need to be from the point of view of a particular club, but this is the highest possible for 18th as applied across the league.
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What was the figure at the start of the season? Am I right that it is just:

Bottom two teams lose every game.
All other 18 teams win each of their home games and lose every away game, except the ones against the bottom two.
So, (19 x 3) + (2 x 3) = 63

In which case, it's amazing that it doesn't come down that much. Nearly three quarters of the way through and it's only dropped by 8.
 
Geordie Blade said:
What was the figure at the start of the season? Am I right that it is just:

Bottom two teams lose every game.
All other 18 teams win each of their home games and lose every away game, except the ones against the bottom two.
So, (19 x 3) + (2 x 3) = 63

In which case, it's amazing that it doesn't come down that much. Nearly three quarters of the way through and it's only dropped by 8.
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Given your credentials as revealed when debating probability theory I’m flattered you’re asking me!

I agree, 18 teams each win 21 games all finishing on 63. I’ve been adding a point to guarantee finishing above 18th, so 64 before a ball is kicked and, as you say, quite remarkable how slowly it moves down.
 
8lade said:
Ok I've just wasted the best part of an hour to discover the safe line before a ball is kicked is 64 pts (or 63 and superior GD) and this slowly falls as games are played.
I've calculated the safe line is now 54 pts but there is still a margin of error which you can't remove without looking at each individual fixture.
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Geordie Blade said:
What was the figure at the start of the season? Am I right that it is just:

Bottom two teams lose every game.
All other 18 teams win each of their home games and lose every away game, except the ones against the bottom two.
So, (19 x 3) + (2 x 3) = 63

In which case, it's amazing that it doesn't come down that much. Nearly three quarters of the way through and it's only dropped by 8.
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I reached that figure by working out total points available deducting 6, which is the bottom 2 playing each other and dividing the remainder equally between the remaining 18 teams. I've gone through a number of different ways of working out a safe number but ironically the number comes out at around 40-45 each time! And of course there is a margin of error with all these methods. The only accurate method is to look at the remaining fixtures and work out the results which would result in the highest possible points score for 3rd bottom which (obviously) will not always remain the same team when you start working out the points.

I will be intrigued if anybody comes up with an accurate predictor.
 
Punk Blade said:
I now have it down to 55 points. Man City are also guaranteed top flight football next season; Leicester will soon follow. Here is a mathematically possible final table, with points required to hit the current target of 55.

View attachment 72368
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I've done a quick sanity check on this and I'm sure it's not 54 points.
Here's my check. For us to go down on 54 points needs all those below us to get that points tally.
Ive worked out how many wins each team below us would need to get, so they were on 54 points. Then added up how many total wins that comes to.
Its 82 wins all together. Now there are 11 teams below us and 11 games left. Thats 121 games left for the teams below us. Obviously the maximum number of wins is only half that, as only one team can win. So that is only 60 available wins. Not the 82 wins that would be needed to get them all on 54.
So the maximum theoretical must be well below 54.
 
Greasy Chap Butty said:
I've done a quick sanity check on this and I'm sure it's not 54 points.
Here's my check. For us to go down on 54 points needs all those below us to get that points tally.
Ive worked out how many wins each team below us would need to get, so they were on 54 points. Then added up how many total wins that comes to.
Its 82 wins all together. Now there are 11 teams below us and 11 games left. Thats 121 games left for the teams below us. Obviously the maximum number of wins is only half that, as only one team can win. So that is only 60 available wins. Not the 82 wins that would be needed to get them all on 54.
So the maximum theoretical must be well below 54.
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20 teams in prem so 13 teams below us not 11.that will throw your calculations out abit
 
finlaytheblade said:
20 teams in prem so 13 teams below us not 11.that will throw your calculations out abit
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In fact, the teams above do need to be considered too. 19 teams and 11 games is 209 games. Allowing 105 wins.
So the 54 points spread between all 11 below us is feasible after all.
 
Teams relegated from a 20 team PL with 40 + points:

Sunderland 1996-7 40 points
Bolton 1997-8 40 points
West Ham 2002-3 42 points
 

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