Points Required For Survival

All advertisments are hidden for logged in members, why not log in/register?

Cassius Kray said:
That's exactly what it is. Punk Blade isn't saying we will need 56 points to stay up, only that at the moment 56 points is a good guess for the number of points needed to be certain.

As the matches go by, that total will go down and our points total will go up, until there comes a point when we are mathematically certain.

I think it's an interesting thing to track, although it'd different from saying "how many points will we need to stay up".
Click to expand...

Why doesn’t someone track what we need to win he league....we can have an update every week....will make interesting reading.
 

I’ve done some work on mathematical safety in the past, and its much more complex then it first appears, in fact it would make a good final year project for a Bsc student.

The first important point is, it’s a moving target, at start of the season every team is 63 points from safety but this number changes after each round of fixtures.

I was going to knock up an Excel spreadsheet to produce a table but it’s a bit much for VBA so I’m planning to write something in C# later this year.

Here’s what I’ve noted so far;

To work out a table at a given point in the season it must be built from the least favourable results for the team we are interested in, they must lose all their remaining games and the teams below must win all theirs. By entering the fixtures for the remainder of the season, following these rules we can produce a table to show with mathematical certainty, how many points a team requires to be safe.

With this in mind the table I came up with before the Bournemouth game (match week 25) left the Blades 12 points from mathematical safety.

I cannot stress enough (before all the arguments start) 4 games have been played since the so this number will have changed already.

Here’s the table.

PosTeamPlayedPoints
1​
Liverpool
38​
73​
2​
Bournemouth
38​
65​
3​
Aston Villa
38​
61​
4​
Watford
38​
59​
5​
Brighton
38​
59​
6​
Norwitch
38​
57​
7​
West Ham
38​
57​
8​
Crystal Palace
38​
57​
9​
Man City
38​
57​
10​
Everton
38​
54​
11​
Southamton
38​
52​
12​
Leicester
38​
52​
13​
Man Utd
38​
51​
14​
Chelsea
38​
50​
15​
Newcastle
38​
49​
16​
Arsenal
38​
49​
17​
Wolves
38​
47​
18​
Burnley
38​
46​
19​
Spurs
38​
46​
20​
Sheff Utd
38​
36​
 
Punk Blade said:
There has been some debate recently around the difference between being mathematically safe (can no longer finish in the bottom three regardless of remaining results) and being effectively safe (we have more points now than the 18th placed team will have in the final table). This led to a few posters asking what are the actual required points for survival based on the current league table. I had a go at answering this, but thought it may be of interest to have a separate thread and track the movement as the run-in unfolds.

The approach is to allow for the two teams with the lowest possible points total (currently Norwich and Watford) and any teams already safe (Liverpool) to lose to everyone else, and have most of the games between the other teams finish with a winner, to maximise the points pool for those teams. After filling out the remaining results it was possible to move the lowest points totals up slightly by factoring in a few draws.

At this stage, 2nd to 18th (and who they are in my table is irrelevant as they could just about be anyone) can be separated by just three points, from 58 in 2nd down to 12 teams on 55 points. It may be possible to have more teams on 56-58 and fewer on 55, but there aren't enough points left in the 56-58 bracket to redistribute to the group on 55 to bring 18th up to 56, so as of right now, 56 points is the golden number to be guaranteed Premier League football next season and only Liverpool have passed this mark already.

To keep our destiny entirely in our own hands, we need 17 points from the remaining 36 on offer, which works out at 1.42 points per game, slightly lower than our current PPG over the season to date of 1.5. Here's the full table:

View attachment 71281
Click to expand...
I think you must be an Actuary by profession. Or enjoy maths in your spare time. Good post too.😎
 
blade67 said:
I've never seen anyone try to do this before and with either 2 or 3 points available from each game depending on results it looks bloody hard to do from this far out, so kudos for giving it a go

Good to see the number fall as the season progresses and I'll happily toast the actual safety date when it arrives

Slow day in the office ?
Click to expand...

Are you for real? Assume you’re in the wind up or as you say slow day in the office ha ?
It reminds me of the scenario after we beat Ipswich last season.
There were actually people saying if we lose 8-0 to Stoke and Leeds their last match 5-0.....then they pinch the last spot.
Think they were being serious too.....worried we might not be promoted.
 
blade too long said:
try this stat , no club in the entire past of the premier league ie since 93 4 , has finished lower than 10th when being 5th with 12 games to go

not even with 3 points for a win in a 38 game season
Click to expand...

quite correct, but that's a stat based on data points not mathematical certainty, in my opinion we are safe now, but mathematically we are not.
 
Sheffsteel said:
Are you for real? Assume you’re in the wind up or as you say slow day in the office ha ?
It reminds me of the scenario after we beat Ipswich last season.
There were actually people saying if we lose 8-0 to Stoke and Leeds their last match 5-0.....then they pinch the last spot.
Think they were being serious too.....worried we might not be promoted.
Click to expand...
Care to explain why I'd be on the wind up?
 
latest odds on us going down from oddschecker

Sheffield U
251.00 to 0ne

251.00

251.00

501.00

751.00

751.00

501.00

301.00

400.00

and one at 1100.00

BladeByChoice said:
quite correct, but that's a stat based on data points not mathematical certainty, in my opinion we are safe now, but mathematically we are not.
Click to expand...
man city arent mathematically safe
they must be shitting themselves
 
WE sit on the verge of Europa Cup or even Champions League qualification (we can dream) and yet, some are still discussing the possibility of relegation. I've been optimistic all season and tipped top 10 in September I believe where we are now is an added bonus, let's just enjoy it taking points aside the bottom 3 are shitloads of goals behind us.

Next season is the real test keeping it going so we can win the league
 

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

You can fill this in with different permutations, then hit Calculate then the >> button to go to the next week, and repeat. Gives an idea of what is possible based on all this teams below us have to play each other stuff.

I gave it a go for a few minutes then thought why the fuck am I doing this?
 
Stevo said:
I've seen some major cock ups, self destruction and injustice in my nearly 30 years being a blade, but fuck me, if we go down I'll eat my shit
Click to expand...
Let me guess where you left it 🤫 UTB
 
093028D1-AAB7-4555-8893-D1F13BFD4D11.jpeg
Accidentally set up an amazing end to the season for the champions league and the relegation battle. Chelsea and wolves play out a 3-3 thriller on the final day.
 
Stevo said:
I've seen some major cock ups, self destruction and injustice in my nearly 30 years being a blade, but fuck me, if we go down I'll eat my shit
Click to expand...


Just cos I can...Would you like red or brown sauce with your meal sir?
:D

The thing is although some of those teams below us ( or even all of them) could in theory get the same points as Us..... They actually have to play each other in many of those games... and even to fuck Us up, the "powers that be" dont give 3 points to each side for shit n giggles.
 
Punk Blade said:
There has been some debate recently around the difference between being mathematically safe (can no longer finish in the bottom three regardless of remaining results) and being effectively safe (we have more points now than the 18th placed team will have in the final table). This led to a few posters asking what are the actual required points for survival based on the current league table. I had a go at answering this, but thought it may be of interest to have a separate thread and track the movement as the run-in unfolds.

The approach is to allow for the two teams with the lowest possible points total (currently Norwich and Watford) and any teams already safe (Liverpool) to lose to everyone else, and have most of the games between the other teams finish with a winner, to maximise the points pool for those teams. After filling out the remaining results it was possible to move the lowest points totals up slightly by factoring in a few draws.

At this stage, 2nd to 18th (and who they are in my table is irrelevant as they could just about be anyone) can be separated by just three points, from 58 in 2nd down to 12 teams on 55 points. It may be possible to have more teams on 56-58 and fewer on 55, but there aren't enough points left in the 56-58 bracket to redistribute to the group on 55 to bring 18th up to 56, so as of right now, 56 points is the golden number to be guaranteed Premier League football next season and only Liverpool have passed this mark already.

To keep our destiny entirely in our own hands, we need 17 points from the remaining 36 on offer, which works out at 1.42 points per game, slightly lower than our current PPG over the season to date of 1.5. Here's the full table:

View attachment 71281
Click to expand...

Norwich fans are in for a reight time if they pull it off. 😳
 
BladeByChoice said:
I’ve done some work on mathematical safety in the past, and its much more complex then it first appears, in fact it would make a good final year project for a Bsc student.

The first important point is, it’s a moving target, at start of the season every team is 63 points from safety but this number changes after each round of fixtures.

I was going to knock up an Excel spreadsheet to produce a table but it’s a bit much for VBA so I’m planning to write something in C# later this year.

Here’s what I’ve noted so far;

To work out a table at a given point in the season it must be built from the least favourable results for the team we are interested in, they must lose all their remaining games and the teams below must win all theirs. By entering the fixtures for the remainder of the season, following these rules we can produce a table to show with mathematical certainty, how many points a team requires to be safe.

With this in mind the table I came up with before the Bournemouth game (match week 25) left the Blades 12 points from mathematical safety.

I cannot stress enough (before all the arguments start) 4 games have been played since the so this number will have changed already.

Here’s the table.

PosTeamPlayedPoints
1​
Liverpool
38​
73​
2​
Bournemouth
38​
65​
3​
Aston Villa
38​
61​
4​
Watford
38​
59​
5​
Brighton
38​
59​
6​
Norwitch
38​
57​
7​
West Ham
38​
57​
8​
Crystal Palace
38​
57​
9​
Man City
38​
57​
10​
Everton
38​
54​
11​
Southamton
38​
52​
12​
Leicester
38​
52​
13​
Man Utd
38​
51​
14​
Chelsea
38​
50​
15​
Newcastle
38​
49​
16​
Arsenal
38​
49​
17​
Wolves
38​
47​
18​
Burnley
38​
46​
19​
Spurs
38​
46​
20​
Sheff Utd
38​
36​
Click to expand...

We're going down with the Spurs?

Gutted.
 
bypassblade said:
WE sit on the verge of Europa Cup or even Champions League qualification (we can dream) and yet, some are still discussing the possibility of relegation. I've been optimistic all season and tipped top 10 in September I believe where we are now is an added bonus, let's just enjoy it taking points aside the bottom 3 are shitloads of goals behind us.

Next season is the real test keeping it going so we can win the league
Click to expand...
I'm not sure anyone really thinks we aren't safe.

The OP is responding to the question posed by some on other threads about mathematical certainty. This must be really difficult to work out and a bit pointless, but it seems he's not the only one, as 2 or 3 have come to the same number of around 56 points - this week. It will have changed by next week.

Obviously, it won't need 56 points as the shit teams at the bottom will keep getting 1 point a game on average.

I'm interested to see when it actually becomes impossible
 
Stevo said:
I've seen some major cock ups, self destruction and injustice in my nearly 30 years being a blade, but fuck me, if we go down I'll eat my shit
Click to expand...
I will join you but if you don’t mind I’ll stick to the apple pie I bring for pudding.
 

1973Blade said:
I wonder if the Tottenham, Manchester United and Arsenal forums are having similar debates 😂
Click to expand...
I was wondering how low we'd have to go in the table for any other team's fans to be thinking relegation is a threat; I'd say Brighton
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

All advertisments are hidden for logged in members, why not log in/register?

All advertisments are hidden for logged in members, why not log in/register?

Back
Top Bottom