How Many is Enough? (Points not Pints!)

[bornablade]

Win all our home games. Don't lose away. We'll be fine.

 

[de g.]

Oh dear - the only team that 91 points would have been enough for was Ipswich, and that wouldn't have changed the outcome because they were second anyway.

So the only way that the outcome (second place) could have been changed by a team getting 91 or more is by a team (other than Ipswich) getting more than 96 - because by assumption Ipswich already had 96 in the same way that everyone is accepting that Leeds already had 90.

Nobody is arguing against the fact that historically this was a statistical first - but the current season is an exact parallel, suggesting that last season was the first of a changed future, and so as far as predicting the future perhaps "history is bunk"!

UTB & FTP!

The discussion is about how many points is necessary to secure second place. Which, assuming a lesser goal difference, means we need to finish one point better than third. If, say, Leeds were to have got 97 points, it would have changed the whole nature of the table; teams that played Ipswich with nothing to play for would have had more at stake for example.

91 may not be enough, I concede. Unlikely, but possible. The chances of 97 necessary are vanishingly small - the only time a team has got 96 and failed to go up (22-23 Owls), they had 62 points after 30 games. Sunderland and Burnley have/had 58.

 

[UddersBlade]

I still think it will be 93pts for 2nd- which is still pretty high historically. That 2pt deduction could really hurt us.

 

[N20 Blade]

We're trying to gel players. The other 3 aren't.
I think we'll finish 4th.

That's a valid concern. Good news is that there was a precedent set in August by us, and we gelled new players very quickly and successfully. Let's hope lightening strikes twice.

 

[gavtheblade]

94

 

[CaptainMorgans]

Not disagreeing with anything but you are always pessimistic about us. I have little knowledge about our new signings apart from BBD also I have little knowledge of Burnley's and Sunderland's signings (dont think Leeds have signed anyone in this window?)

Leeds haven't signed anyone, but I don't think they really needed to.

I'm not particularly pesimistic this season, I just don't see the trend changing significantly from what we're already seeing.

Since seeing Leeds beat us fairly convincingly at ER, I've kept an eye on them and watched a number of their games.
I think they're a much better than any other side in the league, despite the league table not reflecting that.

Ben Bloom summed it up well in his chat with YorkBlade . They're at the front of the pack, coasting along.
We're just behind them, but it always feels like we're straining to keep up.

I don't think Burnley or Sunderland are much better (if at all) than us.
As I suggested, it'll be close between the 3 of us for 2nd.

Appreciate the above view doesn't make me optimistic. But I don't think it makes me pesimistic either.

 

[JayGreen17]

Still say 93 points to be certain