Points Required For Survival

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BladeByChoice said:
Software developer since 1997, started way back using COBOL and Fortran.

But we are not anywhere close to software development yet.

Basic software design. First get the algorithm down using pen and paper, napkin back of a fag packet, anything, before writing a line of code. Then you know the best language to translate the algorithm into a working application.

My current algorithm is:

Start with the club we are interested in (in this case Sheffield United).
Play out their remaining fixtures having them lose every game.
Resort the table.
Play out the remaining fixtures of the bottom club, having them win every game.
Resort the table.
Repeat this process until all the remaining fixtures for the season have been played out.

The resulting table for this process for match week 26 is in my post #89

To get the final result look at the team in 17th and calculate 46-39+1 = 8

I know this isn’t right yet because if I start with 18th place (the highest position to be relegated) I get different numbers. Sometimes higher and sometimes lower, so its not consistent.

If you can improve on this, please do, thanks.
Click to expand...

Factor in Wilder?
 

Punk Blade said:
I’m trying to answer the question of how many points are required to guarantee finishing above 18th, which is basically an exercise in finding the highest possible total for the 18th placed team in the final table. It’s not looking for ‘worst case’ as that would need to be from the point of view of a particular club, but this is the highest possible for 18th as applied across the league.

If the bottom two teams take points off those 18th to (currently) 3rd, then there are fewer points in the pool for those in 3rd to 18th. Let’s say for instance that Norwich still have to play 3rd-10th and Watford still have to play 11th-18th. If they win all those games and get another 24 points each, Norwich would have 46, Watford 55, and the others would be reduced to 51-53, which suggests you would only have to beat 51 to guarantee survival. I’ve produced a set of results that would have 18th on 54 points, so leaving the bottom two behind (and having those already safe also lose their games) to maximise the points available to the rest results in the highest possible total for 18th.

55 and 54 points that you pick out aren't required, they are just the total on this version of the league table, but the results could be cut to have different teams in that 54-56 range. Everyone from 3rd to 18th currently needs 55 to be certain, based on the league table as it stands. For Watford it will also be 55 as we could just swap them out for West Ham.

Norwich are interesting. The most they can get is 51, however their target is probably lower as to reach it they’ll have to take points off everyone else. I haven’t worked it out, so whether it’s as low as 51 I don’t know. I might look at this next to track ‘safe’ from the top, and ‘out of their hands’ from the bottom.
Click to expand...
What complicating any theory are drawn games. As any drawn games both teams take a point and throw one point away

380 games can produce between 760 points and 1140 points. So there's 420 points difference in final points outcomes
 
BladeByChoice said:
Software developer since 1997, started way back using COBOL and Fortran.
Click to expand...

Gosh - that takes me back.

Did those on the Sheffield Poly IBM 360 mainframe in Pond Hill (74-78) !!

80 column cards and all that.............The golf simulator was the first "game" I ever played on a computer.
 
After tonight's result I now have 52 as the highest possible total for 18th, therefore 53 is the taget for guaranteed survival. Leicester's 4-0 thumping of Villa takes them to 53 and they become the third team to be mathematically safe from the drop. We need 10 points from 10 games to be certain as it stands.

Looking at how close 15th-19th are, considering there are games remaining between them and that most of them can only just get to the current target, I can see the number starting to drop sharply each game week now.
 
Okay then clever clogs,how many points do we need to get 4th/5th (Man City appeal pending) to qualify for Champions League football next season??
It works both ways this smart arsed calculations your doing.
So figure that out for us.
 
This thread is ace, you’re making me want to write a spreadsheet to figure this stuff out for us!
 
Fulwood Blade said:
Gosh - that takes me back.

Did those on the Sheffield Poly IBM 360 mainframe in Pond Hill (74-78) !!

80 column cards and all that.............The golf simulator was the first "game" I ever played on a computer.
Click to expand...
I also programmed with paper tape on the Elliot 803 mainframe they had as part of the first computer programming TOPS course that ran from Richmond College In 1974. I suddenly feel old
 
Seth Rollins said:
Okay then clever clogs,how many points do we need to get 4th/5th (Man City appeal pending) to qualify for Champions League football next season??
It works both ways this smart arsed calculations your doing.
So figure that out for us.
Click to expand...
The good news is that someone will work this out quite quickly as it looks pretty straight forward.

The bad news is that you won't like the answer. Not at the moment anyway

Edit - Looks like 70 needed assuming we beat Leicester, Chelsea and man u
 
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blade67 said:
The good news is that someone will work this out quite quickly as it looks pretty straight forward.

The bad news is that you won't like the answer. Not at the moment anyway

Edit - Looks like 70 needed assuming we beat Leicester, Chelsea and man u
Click to expand...
think 5th and a cl spot is there for 65 points
 
blade too long said:
think 5th and a cl spot is there for 65 points
Click to expand...

Bloody hell! That would be some form to finish! It's less than that for me... To get 65 points we have to win 7 draw 1 and lose just 2 out of the remaining 10 fixtures.
Think you've over estimated.
 

burtonstreetblade said:
I also programmed with paper tape on the Elliot 803 mainframe they had as part of the first computer programming TOPS course that ran from Richmond College In 1974. I suddenly feel old
Click to expand...
When I visited Bletchley I also went to the computing museum next door. When I walked through the door my first thought was "shit I have used nearly all those machines. "
 
blade too long said:
1
Man City		38+7298
2
Liverpool		38+6797
3
Chelsea		38+2472
4
Spurs		38+2871
5
Arsenal		38+2270
6
Man Utd		38+1166
7
Wolves		38+157
8
Everton		38+854
well last season 7th was 57 points for wolves to get a europa spot and even 8th could get one this season
Click to expand...

Oh sorry I thought you guys had been using Maths to work all this out.
For Man U to get to 65 points they'd have to average 2.22 points per game compared to the 1.55 points per game they've averaged up to this point. It's possible but it's quite a jump and doesn't offer much room for set back.
 
burtonstreetblade said:
I also programmed with paper tape on the Elliot 803 mainframe they had as part of the first computer programming TOPS course that ran from Richmond College In 1974. I suddenly feel old
Click to expand...
25 years after that I did my first PLC code in dos on Mitsubishi machine PLC. It was only possible to view one line of code at a time.
 
burtonstreetblade said:
I also programmed with paper tape on the Elliot 803 mainframe they had as part of the first computer programming TOPS course that ran from Richmond College In 1974. I suddenly feel old
Click to expand...

Oh yes - paper tape. My first job in industry was programming electro/mechanical machines called COMPUTYPERS.

For the youngsters - a paper tape was approx 2cm wide and as long as it needed to be - depending on the program.

Across the 2cm there was between 0 and 8 holes punched in it - each representing 1 character, numeral or control code. On some "kit", the length of paper tape was joined to form a loop and put in a cartridge and then attached to the kit. The program kept going round and round and the kit acted on the program. The kit came from Nijmegan in Holland - about £3K each (late 70's).

Best thing about going to Nijmegan was you had to fly into Schipol, and then kill a few hours in Amsterdam before catching the train..............and although I never did, the "cost" then was 10 gilders (approx, 4 gilders to the pound) - quite a place even then.

I too feel old !

UTB
 
blade too long said:
think 5th and a cl spot is there for 65 points
Click to expand...
I'm really not sure if you have understood the point of this thread at all.

We are talking about mathematical certainty, not what you or I think might happen.

70 points is based on how many points we need to finish 5th given the worst case scenario, just like 50 odd points is needed to stay up. In my worst case scenario we beat the teams above us because If they beat us, mathematically we can't catch them.
 
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good news is Spurs aren't going to nick our place by gong through the rear exit! (Winning Champions league).
 
blade67 said:
I'm really not sure if you have understood the point of this thread at all.

We are talking about mathematical certainty, not what you or I think might happen.

70 points is based on how many points we need to finish 5th given the worst case scenario, just like 50 odd points is needed to stay up. In my worst case scenario we beat the teams above us because If they beat us, mathematically we can't catch them.
Click to expand...
Wasn't pulled out of the air
Think 65 could get 5th . There's loads of head to heads which could lose 2 games ie 6 points and still be in contention . All clubs 5th to 8th are around 5 points adrift of totals aftèr 29 games last season and 3 finished around 70
 
blade too long said:
Wasn't pulled out of the air
Think 65 could get 5th . There's loads of head to heads which could lose 2 games ie 6 points and still be in contention . All clubs 5th to 8th are around 5 points adrift of totals aftèr 29 games last season and 3 finished around 70
Click to expand...
The thread is not, "How many points do you think it will take to finish..." this thread is about maths.

It started as "what is the amount of points we need to 'mathematically' stay up, and it's a much bigger number than you would think.

Someone asked the question what do we need to mathematically finish 4th or 5th. The answer at the moment is 70 points to finish 5th and 73 to finish 4th

You may be right that in fact we will need less (in fact you will be right that it will take less) but that is a different thread that you might start yourself if you want 👍
 
the definitive way to settle this would be for some script whizz kid to write a program that went through the remaining fixtures with every possible outcome for every game left and work ot the lowest we could possibly finish - ie have us lose every game 5-0 and play that out against every scenario for all the other games
 
great to see this thread back to the first page. With the pace of games coming so fast I'd expect the numbers to move quite quickly.
 

As there was no change at the end of the last complete match week (Wednesday night), I was going to wait for Monday night’s game before an update!

But yes, I had dusted off the spreadsheet and put Wednesday‘s results in 😉
 
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