5th round fixture

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No matter the odds ,we all know its going to happen, giving them much needed exposure and publicity. It's going to happen and it'll be at the rust bucket live on tv.
 

MobileBlade said:
And I'm telling you your wrong 😃 . Its only a 1 in 15 chance if either of us is the first ball out of the bag (as it used to be drawn).
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Actually I was wrong earlier. There are fifteen teams or pairs of teams that we could possibly draw. We have an equal probability of playing any of them, so it's one in 15, or 14/1.
 
MobileBlade said:
And I'm telling you your wrong 😃 . Its only a 1 in 15 chance if either of us is the first ball out of the bag (as it used to be drawn).
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The odds before any balls have been drawn (i.e right now) are 15/1. These odds would then shorten after each successive pair of balls have been drawn out, if neither team has been drawn out.
 
Cheets said:
Actually I was wrong earlier. There are fifteen teams or pairs of teams that we could possibly draw. We have an equal probability of playing any of them, so it's one in 15, or 14/1.
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I was wrong actually. Its much greater than 1 in 48 but I can't be arsed to work it out.

Basically there are 16 balls in the bag. We therefore have a 1 in 16 chance of coming out first. There is then a 1 in 15 chance of the pigs coming out second. If neither drawn it then becomes 1 in 14 of one of us next and so on. Therefore the odds of us both coming out against each other are much much greater.
 
MobileBlade said:
I was wrong actually. Its much greater than 1 in 48 but I can't be arsed to work it out.

Basically there are 16 balls in the bag. We therefore have a 1 in 16 chance of coming out first. There is then a 1 in 15 chance of the pigs coming out second. If neither drawn it then becomes 1 in 14 of one of us next and so on. Therefore the odds of us both coming out against each other are much much greater.
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Doesn't matter whether our ball is drawn out first, second or seventh. Before a ball is drawn, the chances of us drawing a particular club or pair of clubs is one in fifteen.
 
Corazon said:
The odds before any balls have been drawn (i.e right now) are 15/1. These odds would then shorten after each successive pair of balls have been drawn out, if neither team has been drawn out.
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It's one in fifteen, so it's actually 14 to one (contrary to my earlier post).
 
Cheets said:
Doesn't matter whether our ball is drawn out first, second or seventh. Before a ball is drawn, the chances of us drawing a particular club or pair of clubs is one in fifteen.
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Did you do algebra at school? The probability of such an event happening is based on the outcome of the first event. So the chances of us being first two out of the bag are 1/16 x 1/15 = 2/240 or 1/120. You then add to the next two, ie 1/14x1/13 and so on to reach the probability of the event happening when dependant on the first event. How do you think bookies make their money?!!
 
MobileBlade said:
Did you do algebra at school? The probability of such an event happening is based on the outcome of the first event. So the chances of us being first two out of the bag are 1/16 x 1/15 = 2/240 or 1/120. You then add to the next two, ie 1/14x1/13 and so on to reach the probability of the event happening when dependant on the first event. How do you think bookies make their money?!!
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So what are the chances ?
 
MobileBlade said:
Did you do algebra at school? The probability of such an event happening is based on the outcome of the first event. So the chances of us being first two out of the bag are 1/16 x 1/15 = 2/240 or 1/120. You then add to the next two, ie 1/14x1/13 and so on to reach the probability of the event happening when dependant on the first event. How do you think bookies make their money?!!
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The bookies make their money by giving odds that are not mathematically accurate. i.e. They factor in a profit margin.
 
Rob86 said:
So what are the chances ?
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Can't be arsed to work it out. I was knocking out the memory cells to remember the formula. I used to support a bookmaker in my job and one of their guys once explained it to me. They use similar algarithms to how quickly you can place a bet based on your previous betting history.
 

Corazon said:
You say the odds of us being drawn together are "much greater than 1 in 48". How can that possibly be right when there are only 15 other teams in the hat? Just think about it ….
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Because you are reliant on one of us being drawn first and then the other being drawn immediately afterwards. There are two events but the second one is reliant on the first. So as I explained the probability of us being droawn first is 1 in 16. The probability of Wednesday being drawn second is 1 in 15. The 2nd event is dependant on the 1st event so the probability of us being drawn first two out of the hat is therefore 1 in 120. If this event didn't happen you would have similar probabilities until just 2 balls left in the bag. You add all these probabilities together and you get the chances of us being drawn against each other. If I had laptop on would do a spreadsheet to show you.

Request a bet off one of the bookies on us being first two out of hat. They'll give you odds of about 80/1. Most people will think thats crazy as only 16 clubs in hat so good chance. Most people will lose their money.
 
MobileBlade said:
Did you do algebra at school? The probability of such an event happening is based on the outcome of the first event. So the chances of us being first two out of the bag are 1/16 x 1/15 = 2/240 or 1/120. You then add to the next two, ie 1/14x1/13 and so on to reach the probability of the event happening when dependant on the first event. How do you think bookies make their money?!!
Click to expand...

You’re nearly right Steve except it’s half of what you said here because the order that we are drawn doesn’t matter. Your odds here are for us to be drawn against them at home. There are equal odds for us at the Sty - ie first ball in the first pair out can be us or them 1/8 etc for each pair drawn. It’s nCr rather than nPr to a statistician.
 
ucandomagic said:
You’re nearly right Steve except it’s half of what you said here because the order that we are drawn doesn’t matter. Your odds here are for us to be drawn against them at home. There are equal odds for us at the Sty - ie fist ball out can be us or them 1/8. It’s nCr rather than nPr to a statistician.
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That is true. So it become 1/8 x 1/15 so 1/60. The bookies will give you 40/1 on us being first two out. Years since I did algebra! Can you do the calculation on us being drawn together?

Edit - we do want a home draw!
 
MobileBlade said:
That is true. So it become 1/8 x 1/15 so 1/60. The bookies will give you 40/1 on us being first two out. Years since I did algebra! Can you do the calculation on us being drawn together?
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You’re getting there, stats is right now but your maths is wrong! 1/16x1/15 is 1/240 and 1/8x1/15 is 1/120! For later balls it becomes more difficult because you have to subtract the probability that one of us has already been drawn.
 
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MobileBlade said:
That is true. So it become 1/8 x 1/15 so 1/60. The bookies will give you 40/1 on us being first two out. Years since I did algebra! Can you do the calculation on us being drawn together?

Edit - we do want a home draw!
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It's 1 in 14 - apart from us, there are 15 other teams/balls in the hat and we have to be drawn against one of them!
 

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