Pathway to the Playoffs

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Derbys just won Ben Brereton Diaz and Brewster scored , were starting with Campbell, Cannon and Chong , Davies in net

Still on ?? 😂
 



If we keep the same team for next season, with a few additions? Just depends what our owner's are willing to do. However, while ever it's still mathematically possible, I can keep winding my Owl's mates up at work that we'll be in the Premier League and they'll be in League One, so we need to keep the dream alive for as long as possible. Plus, it delays me paying one of them I had a bet with at the start of the season £20, so come on Wilder! Keep going!
 
Win your homes and draw your aways….

So we lost two to Boro and Coventry but we’ve clawed 4 of those 6 lost points back via wins against Portsmouth and QPR.

A full week’s rest to work on Adam Davies’ decision making.

Some interesting fixtures. Wrexham’s last two are Coventry and Boro.

Hull’s next two are Ipswich and Millwall.

At least the away games we have to play are ones we could genuinely do with, to leapfrog teams. We’ve no more Coventry, Boro, Ipswich or Millwall to play unlike a good few of the others.
 
Champagneblade said:
Win your homes and draw your aways….

So we lost two to Boro and Coventry but we’ve clawed 4 of those 6 lost points back via wins against Portsmouth and QPR.

A full week’s rest to work on Adam Davies’ decision making.

Some interesting fixtures. Wrexham’s last two are Coventry and Boro.

Hull’s next two are Ipswich and Millwall.

At least the away games we have to play are ones we could genuinely do with, to leapfrog teams. We’ve no more Coventry, Boro, Ipswich or Millwall to play unlike a good few of the others.
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Our problem this season is we haven't drawn the aways. We've lost 17 games, only WBA and Wednesday have lost more, yet only drawn 3 all season. If we'd have managed to turn 7 of those 17 into draws we'd be right in the hunt.
 
Champagneblade said:
Win your homes and draw your aways….

So we lost two to Boro and Coventry but we’ve clawed 4 of those 6 lost points back via wins against Portsmouth and QPR.

A full week’s rest to work on Adam Davies’ decision making.

Some interesting fixtures. Wrexham’s last two are Coventry and Boro.

Hull’s next two are Ipswich and Millwall.

At least the away games we have to play are ones we could genuinely do with, to leapfrog teams. We’ve no more Coventry, Boro, Ipswich or Millwall to play unlike a good few of the others.
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i cant believe wrexham have Coventry and Boro as last two matches , they might be both up by then and be on the beach , i bet cov will be !!
 
If we don't go up it could be a blessing - apart from the money obviously. We're not strong enough to survive the PL at the moment and even if we spend all the PL money on new players we'd have little chance. It would be another season of VAR, sky-high prices, daft KO times and losing every week.

Where we are now is fine for me. Winning more than losing, good days out, no VAR, more Saturday 3pm kick offs, match tickets easy to get hold of and generally costing between 30-40 quid. Meanwhile we can sit back and watch our neighbours sink into oblivion.
 
Dkc said:
If we don't go up it could be a blessing - apart from the money obviously. We're not strong enough to survive the PL at the moment and even if we spend all the PL money on new players we'd have little chance. It would be another season of VAR, sky-high prices, daft KO times and losing every week.

Where we are now is fine for me. Winning more than losing, good days out, no VAR, more Saturday 3pm kick offs, match tickets easy to get hold of and generally costing between 30-40 quid. Meanwhile we can sit back and watch our neighbours sink into oblivion.
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Cap at £30 for away tickets still in place. Agree with rest.
 
Dkc said:
If we don't go up it could be a blessing - apart from the money obviously. We're not strong enough to survive the PL at the moment and even if we spend all the PL money on new players we'd have little chance. It would be another season of VAR, sky-high prices, daft KO times and losing every week.

Where we are now is fine for me. Winning more than losing, good days out, no VAR, more Saturday 3pm kick offs, match tickets easy to get hold of and generally costing between 30-40 quid. Meanwhile we can sit back and watch our neighbours sink into oblivion.
Click to expand...
There's no blessing in the fact we don't have parachute or premier league money for the first time since 2019 no matter how people try to spin it. It's significant
 



Updated:

6W1D (2.7pts/Game) - 19pts (+0.6pts)
Home: Oxford (W), Wednesday (W), WBA, Swansea, Hull, Blackburn, PNE

3W2D (2.2pts/Game) - 11pts (-5.8pts)
Home: Boro (L), Ipswich (W), Coventry (L), Wrexham
Away: Charlton (L)

2W2L (1.5pts/Game) - 6pts (-0.5pts)
Away: Millwall (D), Norwich, Bristol, Derby

2W3L (1.2pts/Game) - 6pts (+2.4pts)
Away: Southampton (L), Portsmouth (W), QPR (W), Birmingham, Watford


Based on Months and fixture strength that looks like this:

Jan: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
CHA (A), SOU (A), IPS (H), MIL (A)
Jan: 4pts from 4 games (1pt/game - 1W1D2L) -3pts

Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2.0pts/Game - 4W2L)
OXF (H), MID (H), POR (A), SHW (H), COV (H), QPR (A)
Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2pt/game - 4W2L) - On Track

March: 8pts from 4 games (2.0pts/Game - 2W2D)
WBA (H), NOR (A), BIR (A), WRE (H)

April/May: 15pts from 7 games (2.14pts/Game - 5W2L)
SWA (H), BRI (A), HUL (H), WAT (A), BLA (H), PNE (H), DER (A)

We are about 3pts off track on the plan to make it to 74pts. Doesn't sound like a lot, but its not going to be easy to make it up, it was already a stretch to get there. I give us a 19% chance of getting to 74pts. But moreover, I don't think that will be enough. Hull fluked there way to 6pts, and probably have too many points on the board now to finish below 75, even though they are not playing particularly well. Wrexham keep getting wins, and we need them to stop doing that soon to have any chance. Then there is Southampton who have good players, and are kicking on. So with all that said, I think the standard is going to be high 70s. Things can change in a 3 game week, but we are now relying on getting results away at Norwich and Birmingham, which I don't think is likely. We need a 10-12pt March to stay in the race.
 
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No points for Brum last night.

Boro keeping the pressure on Coventry so they can both beat Wrexham in the final two matches of the season!
 
I just have a hunch we win the last 8 games.

In both Wilders promotion seasons, he put the foot down for the run-in.

Here's League 1 in 2016-17 we won the final 7 games and were unbeaten in the last 17.

In the 2018-19 Championship season we were unbeaten in the last 7 and had just 1 defeat in the final 18 games.

Here are our final 8 games after we've played WBA (h) and the 2 tough away days at Brum and Norwich...

  1. Wrexham (h)
  2. Swansea (h)
  3. Bristol C (a)
  4. Hull (h)
  5. Watford (a)
  6. Blackburn (h)
  7. Preston (h)
  8. Derby (a)
 
mattbianco1 said:
Pigs for the unlikely draw at Derby on Saturday !??!?
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Derby are relatively awful at home. They're 8th in the overall table but 17th in the home table (6-6-6) having played more than 5 of the 7 below them. It's only very recent form - namely beating Blackburn and Swansea in their last two home fixtures - that stops them being bottom 3.

It's a pity Wednesday are irredeemably shite really. I'd back Oxford to get a point at Derby but this Wednesday team is bottom of L1 level.
 
mattbianco1 said:
Pigs for the unlikely draw at Derby on Saturday !??!?
Click to expand...
If we get enough points to put ourselves in with a chance of making the playoffs, we won't need to worry about what Derby or anyone below them are doing.

The 3 teams that matter are, Hull, Wrexham, and Southampton.
 
Hull lost to Ipswich last night.

It also keeps the pressure on Boro and Coventry who both face Wrexham in the final two games of the season.

Hull’s next two games are Millwall at home and Wrexham away.

Wrexham play Chelsea next and hopefully pick up lots of injuries and suspensions. Then Hull and then they have the Sheepshagger derby against Swansea.

Hopefully it all starts to unravel for them.
 
If Wrexham keep winning we need to pick up nine points at home to West Brom then away at Norwich and Birmingham. Just can't see that happening with our first choice keeper out (and Hamer likely to be suspended). We should have enough to beat West Brom at home but six points from two tough away games after that is very unlikely,
 
SUFCScorecard said:
If we get enough points to put ourselves in with a chance of making the playoffs, we won't need to worry about what Derby or anyone below them are doing.

The 3 teams that matter are, Hull, Wrexham, and Southampton.
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This is like reading the Norwich forum
 



ATL Recs said:
This is like reading the Norwich forum
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To be clear I don't think we will. But, the point is, we are going to have to go on such an incredible run (which we likely won't), that the teams a few points ahead of us are unlikely to be the concern. It is the teams 5, 9 and 12 points ahead of us who will have to drop enough points for us to catch them, which I also don't think they will.
 
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