5th round fixture

[Cheets]

I failed my statistics A level many years ago but even I know that you're completely wrong.

If we're first out of the hat it's 1 chance in 15 but if we're not it becomes a cumulative equation until we are drawn.

No idea how to work it out though, that's why I failed the A level

If neither us nor Wednesday are drawn out first, the probability of us playing them gradually increases, so if neither have been drawn by the time the last game is drawn, the probability is 100%.

 

[Cheets]

I was asking about the odds of an all Sheffield game after Liverpool were drawn out first and before the second team was drawn.

14/1, or 1 in 15.

 

[MobileBlade]

But those events aren’t mutually exclusive so that doesn’t work. You only multiply when they are. United could be drawn in ANY of the sixteen positions in the draw, therefore United getting drawn out in any position is irrelevant to the odds. We know they will be drawn somewhere, it’s a certainty. The key is whether Wendy are drawn in the position opposite us. That’s a 1 in 15 shot, hence for every 1 time it happens, it doesn’t 14 times. Therefore it’s 1:14 or 14-1.

They can't come out anywhere in the draw though. They have to come out successively and as stated in my previous reply 1st and 2nd or 3rd and 4th or 5th and 6th etc. For them to come out 3rd and 4th they cannot come out 1st or 2nd so you have the odds of that not happening as well. ucandomagic did the odds.

 

[Sean Thornton]

14/1, or 1 in 15.

Isn't that discounting the chance of either Sheffield team being drawn out second?

 

[Cheets]

Isn't that discounting the chance of either Sheffield team being drawn out second?

We know that Liverpool will be drawn out at some stage, so in effect them being drawn out first doesn't change anything. If a Sheffield team is drawn against Liverpool, then obviously the probability of a Sheffield derby drops to zero, whereas if a non-Sheffield team is drawn, then there are two fewer teams left in the hat so we'd have a one in 13 chance of drawing Wednesday, or 12/1.

 

[DronnieBlade]

Wednesday at home.

Please, pretty please and with hundreds and thousands sprinkled on top .

UTB

 

[blade too long]

I was unaware there has to be a result on the night as there is extra time and penalties and no replays from the 5th round onwards from this season
Could sneak through on pens v man city and liverpool at home

 

[Sean Thornton]

We know that Liverpool will be drawn out at some stage, so in effect them being drawn out first doesn't change anything. If a Sheffield team is drawn against Liverpool, then obviously the probability of a Sheffield derby drops to zero, whereas if a non-Sheffield team is drawn, then there are two fewer teams left in the hat so we'd have a one in 13 chance of drawing Wednesday, or 12/1.

I don't know if l'm explaining myself properly, l'm asking why the odds on an all Sheffield tie don't change each time another team is drawn out first. I may be wrong but l'm saying because either local club can be drawn second, at that moment, the odds of them being drawn successively- to face each other - necessarily change. And will do every time both are still in the draw and a different team is pulled from the hat first.

 

[Cheets]

Isn't that discounting the chance of either Sheffield team being drawn out second?

The odds will never change after each gon

Isn't that discounting the chance of either Sheffield team being drawn out second?

I don't know if l'm explaining myself properly, l'm asking why the odds on an all Sheffield tie don't change each time another team is drawn out first. I may be wrong but l'm saying because either local club can be drawn second, at that moment, the odds of them being drawn successively- to face each other - necessarily change. And will do every time both are still in the draw and a different team is pulled from the hat first.

The odds on a Sheffield derby will never change after a home team is drawn out, they will only change after the away team is drawn out, so we are aware of another complete tie.

 

[Sean Thornton]

The odds will never change after each gon

The odds on a Sheffield derby will never change after a home team is drawn out, they will only change after the away team is drawn out, so we are aware of another complete tie.

So the possibility of a Sheffield team being drawn second against Liverpool doesn't affect the odds on a derby subsequently? Don't see it, sorry.

The likelihood of an all Sheffield game AFTER the first team is drawn is lessened simply because of the possibility either could be drawn second.

 

[Corazon]

Found this on line in a paper published by the Royal Statistical Society.

"The BBC website recently published a feature using the FA Cup draw to highlight basic calculations in probability. As an example, in a round with 32 teams, the probability of any two teams being drawn to play each other is 1/31."

 

[Cheets]

So the possibility of a Sheffield team being drawn second against Liverpool doesn't affect the odds on a derby subsequently? Don't see it, sorry.

The probability of Liverpool drawing a Sheffield side is 2 in 15. This remains the same even if they are drawn out first. The probability of the Sheffield sides drawing each other remains 1 in 15. Each individual team's chances of drawing Liverpool is still one in 15. For the purposes of this exercise, teams who drew in round 4, eg Southampton and Spurs, count as one team.

 

[LoughboroBlade]

In answer to the OP amidst the stats chat:

This season's Emirates FA Cup fifth round will take place in midweek during the week commencing Monday 2 March, with any ties that are level after 90 minutes progressing to extra time and, if necessary, penalties to determine a winner on the night.

Also, we’re ball number 8: http://www.thefa.com/news/2020/jan/24/emirates-fa-cup-fifth-round-draw-details-240120

 

[jt64]

Are people still debating what is a very obvious 14/1 shot of us drawing the Pigs?

 

[Sean Thornton]

The probability of Liverpool drawing a Sheffield side is 2 in 15. This remains the same even if they are drawn out first. The probability of the Sheffield sides drawing each other remains 1 in 15. Each individual team's chances of drawing Liverpool is still one in 15. For the purposes of this exercise, teams who drew in round 4, eg Southampton and Spurs, count as one team.

If, in any part of the draw, either Sheffield team is drawn first, l agree. However, when another team is drawn first because of the possibility of a Sheffield club being drawn against them, the odds on a subsequent Derby tie must lengthen. That must be the case. They could be drawn successively at that point but the discussion is about being drawn together.

If you placed a bet at 14/1 on an all Sheffield tie being drawn out and Liverpool were drawn out first, would you still take the same odds at that point?

 

[Ginger Gnome]

The probability of Liverpool drawing a Sheffield side is 2 in 15. This remains the same even if they are drawn out first. The probability of the Sheffield sides drawing each other remains 1 in 15. Each individual team's chances of drawing Liverpool is still one in 15. For the purposes of this exercise, teams who drew in round 4, eg Southampton and Spurs, count as one team.

Stop using the word probability and you'll be less wrong. Liverpool have a 2 in 15 possibility of drawing a Sheffield side. Probability is an entirely different thing.

 

[jt64]

If you placed a bet at 14/1 on an all Sheffield tie being drawn out and Liverpool were drawn out first, would you still take the same odds at that point?

Well, 2 out of 15 times I lose instantly, and in the remaining 13 out of 15 times we draw the Pork once in every thirteen tries. Which is, er, 14/1

 

[Sean Thornton]

Well, 2 out of 15 times I lose instantly, and in the remaining 13 out of 15 times we draw the Pork once in every thirteen tries. Which is, er, 14/1

So do you believe the odds are still 14/1 in the example I gave?

 

[Cheets]

If, in any part of the draw, either Sheffield team is drawn first, l agree. However, when another team is drawn first because of the possibility of a Sheffield club being drawn against them, the odds on a subsequent Derby tie must lengthen. That must be the case. They could be drawn successively at that point but the discussion is about being drawn together.

If you placed a bet at 14/1 on an all Sheffield tie being drawn out and Liverpool were drawn out first, would you still take the same odds at that point?

Yes. Remember, home and away doesn't come into it, it's purely about the possibility of a Sheffield derby. At the moment, we have no idea who anyone will be drawn against. If Liverpool are drawn out first, we will still have no idea who anyone will be drawn against. Obviously that all changes once the away team is drawn.

 

[Cheets]

Stop using the word probability and you'll be less wrong. Liverpool have a 2 in 15 possibility of drawing a Sheffield side. Probability is an entirely different thing.

The maths discipline is known as the law of probability, not the law of possibility.

 

[Sean Thornton]

Yes. Remember, home and away doesn't come into it, it's purely about the possibility of a Sheffield derby. At the moment, we have no idea who anyone will be drawn against. If Liverpool are drawn out first, we will still have no idea who anyone will be drawn against. Obviously that all changes once the away team is drawn.

If Liverpool are drawn first, the possibility of a derby is affected by the fact that either Sheffield team can be drawn next. That's clearly not the same odds as if we were drawn first.

 

[Cheets]

If Liverpool are drawn first, the possibility of a derby is affected by the fact that either Sheffield team can be drawn next. That's clearly not the same odds as if we were drawn first.

It's exactly the same odds whoever is drawn first. Each team will definitely be drawn at some point whether it's first ball or sixteenth ball. It's who they are playing that affects the odds.

 

[Sean Thornton]

It's exactly the same odds whoever is drawn first. Each team will definitely be drawn at some point whether it's first ball or sixteenth ball. It's who they are playing that affects the odds.

The odds in question are nothing to do with who plays who. I originally asked why the odds on a derby game wouldn't be longer if Liverpool were drawn first. (Home and away doesn't come into it). With one team drawn, and a chance either local side could be drawn second, the odds change the instant another team is drawn first. If we were drawn first, there's clearly a difference. The odds/chances/possibility has to change with the scenario.

 

[blade too long]

If, in any part of the draw, either Sheffield team is drawn first, l agree. However, when another team is drawn first because of the possibility of a Sheffield club being drawn against them, the odds on a subsequent Derby tie must lengthen. That must be the case. They could be drawn successively at that point but the discussion is about being drawn together.

If you placed a bet at 14/1 on an all Sheffield tie being drawn out and Liverpool were drawn out first, would you still take the same odds at that point?

Only 16 teams in the 5th round
8 in the 6th. Someone said odds were 31s. That's for 4th round
If 14 are drawn out and both sheffield teams are still in the pot the odds must plummet

 

[Cheets]

Only 16 teams in the 5th round
8 in the 6th. Someone said odds were 31s. That's for 4th round
If 14 are drawn out and both sheffield teams are still in the pot the odds must plummet

If 14 are drawn out and neither Sheffield team has yet been drawn then the likelihood of a Sheffield derby is 100%.

 

[Blackestnite]

 

[Bath Blade]

Mick who sits next to me on the Kop shares the same birthday as me. What were the chances of that happening before our randomly purchased season tickets sat us next to each other in 2006?

Given that you have a birthday, regardless of when it is, and Mick’s birthday is random, it’s 1 in 365, or 364 to 1 (or 1 in 365.25 if you’re taking leap years into account).

I’ve enjoyed this thread (and the overall poor understanding of statistics and probability)!

 

[anglian blade]

That BBC link doesnt seem to work so perhaps a simple example with show the reasoning.

Suppose both Sheffield teams get to the semi-final with say Man City and Liverpool. There are 6 possible combinations of matches SU v SW, SU v MC, SU v L, SW v MC, SW v L , L v MC. There are 2 semi finals So the chances are 1 in 6 times two matches equals 1 in 3

Relating this to the round with 16 teams, there are 240 possible combinations and 8 matches so the odds are 8/240 or 1 in 15

 

[Ginger Gnome]

The maths discipline is known as the law of probability, not the law of possibility.

And you're getting the maths discipline completely wrong so stop using the word when you clearly have no clue what you're talking about.

 

[idleurchin]

I’d like Leicester at home again.

Think we learned a lot from the last game and it’d be interesting to see how we’d do against them now.

Deffo need Didz back against them.

Id partner him with Billy. Great hold up and link play when they play together.

Allows our midfield to get involved higher up the pitch.

I still think we play better when they play together (and are in form).