Compared with last season...
- Thread starter grafikhaus
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I thought we were - we definitely favourites v Palace, Wolves and Burnley. Not sure about last season.
Interestingly, we were the higher placed of the two teams in wach of the finals.
Highbury_Blade
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No there isn't. 99 problems is 100% of the problems jaz-z faces. Bitches aren't a problem to him
DJ Jazzy Jeff?
Kenilworth
Fuck The Falccid Franchise.
Fair shout, but if pedantry calls then the song has bitch in the singular not the plural - so stick that in yer pie hole.
Ollessendro
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The graph looks pretty positive at the moment. I for one am really peased that we are sitting in 3rd and are unbeaten. I also think that less than 90 points will be needed this year. I do not think that there are any stand out teams this term. There are big question marks over whether Tranmere and Stevenage can sustain things and there is clearly not much difference between the likes of us, Crawley, Swindon, County and MK Dons. I think this means we'll have a tighter division and a lower points total for 2nd place. My analysis early showed a range from 79 to 90, with a median, mode ane mean of around 83. I think tha the team finishing 2nd will have a points tally closer to this than last years 90.
However despite all the above we need to be cautious making any judgements at the moment. The trend line could be misleading. Before Christmas we have Swindon (A), MK Dons (A), Stevenage (H), Tranmere (H) and Crwley (A). There is also potentially tricky ties away at Brentford and Carlisle in there too. In fact, looking at the fixture list from now until Chrimbo it is awful. If we are in a similar position to what we are now by Christmas then I will be ecstatic and really start to believe.
However despite all the above we need to be cautious making any judgements at the moment. The trend line could be misleading. Before Christmas we have Swindon (A), MK Dons (A), Stevenage (H), Tranmere (H) and Crwley (A). There is also potentially tricky ties away at Brentford and Carlisle in there too. In fact, looking at the fixture list from now until Chrimbo it is awful. If we are in a similar position to what we are now by Christmas then I will be ecstatic and really start to believe.
grafikhaus
Kraft durch Freude
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- #128
Must admit, feared the worst when I heard Kitson was out but good stuff, Blades. Match 15, still unbeaten, joint top with a declining Tranmere. Harry awesome. (The vertical lines are the games, the spaces between the lines are the spaces between games. Geddit?)
blade too long
we go again
plus trend has gone to 96 points
grafikhaus
Kraft durch Freude
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Kenilworth
Fuck The Falccid Franchise.
Looks like 92 to me - Should have got that at least last season.
Suspect it will be enough this season but what a division full if utter shite it is
Suspect it will be enough this season but what a division full if utter shite it is
PeterNdlovu081
COCK PISS PARTRIDGE
After 15 games last season...
1. Charlton 34
2. Huddersfield 31
3. Sheffield Wednesday 29
4. Sheffield United 28
1. Charlton 34
2. Huddersfield 31
3. Sheffield Wednesday 29
4. Sheffield United 28
That looks wrong again.
Using my incredibly complicated formula:
31/15 x 46 = 95.1
Thus we are on course to get 95 points noyt 92 as your graph suggests.
grafikhaus
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You are, of course, correct. Having realised that Excel can't cope with the vagaries of a United season and having given up on the various types of trend lines, I've resorted to your simple formula:
Highbury_Blade
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can't believe i didn't spot this the other night (That'll be the whisky's fault
), but after busting open that spreadsheet that you sent me the other night, the trendline is for season 11/12, not 12/13
Kenilworth
Fuck The Falccid Franchise.
can't believe i didn't spot this the other night (That'll be the whisky's fault
Ah, give him a break! -
You can see the sort of toilet roll he uses - probably can't sit still for the itchy piles it creates.
You are quite right though HB - tut tut for such a schoolboy error Graffers (not sure you warrant that moniker now though mate)
super_pig
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course we can.. we are the blades.. get up with the program
grafikhaus
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Ollessendro
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Was somebody doing another analysis of this vs last season? I seem to remember something. Another forum member did something that might show a truer picture. By that I mean comparing the results from this term vs theresults from last term in the same matches (replacing relegated teams with promoted ones and vice versa). It might actually not be that insightful, as 2 of the relegated teams are not doing very well and two of the promotion teams are facied for at leadt the play offs.
I was looking at the table yesterday and we have played only 2 of the top 6 and 4 of the top 10. Those games all come between now and Christmas. If the trend line is 83 points or above by Chrimbo I will be dead chuffed.
I was looking at the table yesterday and we have played only 2 of the top 6 and 4 of the top 10. Those games all come between now and Christmas. If the trend line is 83 points or above by Chrimbo I will be dead chuffed.
Selly
Ask me about Updog...
yes, me!
Last Season Oppo 12-13 Points Change Oppo
AUG 18 Shrewsbury (H) 2.50 3 0.50
AUG 21 Coventry (A) 1.00 1 0.00
AUG 25 Colchester (A) 1.00 1 0.00
SEP 1 Bournemouth (H) 3.00 3 0.00
SEP 8 Scunthorpe (A) 1.00 1 0.00
SEP 15 Bury (H) 3.00 1 -2.00
SEP 18 Doncaster (H) 0.33 1 0.67
SEP 22 Yeovil (A) 3.00 3 0.00
SEP 29 Notts County (H) 3.00 1 -2.00
OCT 2 Hartlepool (A) 3.00 3 0.00
OCT 6 Leyton Orient (A) 1.00 3 2.00
OCT 13 Oldham (H) 0.00 1 1.00
OCT 20 Preston (A) 3.00 3 0.00
OCT 23 Walsall (H) 3.00 3 0.00
OCT 27 Portsmouth (H) 0.33 3 2.67
Total = we are 2.83 points up on the equivalent games from last season
The next 5 games
NOV 6 Swindon (A) 1.75
NOV 10 MK Dons (A) 0.00
NOV 17 Stevenage (H) 1.00
NOV 20 Crewe (H) 2.50
NOV 24 Brentford (A) 3.00
Last Season Oppo 12-13 Points Change Oppo
AUG 18 Shrewsbury (H) 2.50 3 0.50
AUG 21 Coventry (A) 1.00 1 0.00
AUG 25 Colchester (A) 1.00 1 0.00
SEP 1 Bournemouth (H) 3.00 3 0.00
SEP 8 Scunthorpe (A) 1.00 1 0.00
SEP 15 Bury (H) 3.00 1 -2.00
SEP 18 Doncaster (H) 0.33 1 0.67
SEP 22 Yeovil (A) 3.00 3 0.00
SEP 29 Notts County (H) 3.00 1 -2.00
OCT 2 Hartlepool (A) 3.00 3 0.00
OCT 6 Leyton Orient (A) 1.00 3 2.00
OCT 13 Oldham (H) 0.00 1 1.00
OCT 20 Preston (A) 3.00 3 0.00
OCT 23 Walsall (H) 3.00 3 0.00
OCT 27 Portsmouth (H) 0.33 3 2.67
Total = we are 2.83 points up on the equivalent games from last season
The next 5 games
NOV 6 Swindon (A) 1.75
NOV 10 MK Dons (A) 0.00
NOV 17 Stevenage (H) 1.00
NOV 20 Crewe (H) 2.50
NOV 24 Brentford (A) 3.00
Ollessendro
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With both sets of analysis, we can say conclusively that we have had not only a better start to the season than last year, but are also doing better in resulting fixtures (if not one and the same!?). Still, some tough fixtures lie ahead so let's see how we get on.
Thanks Selly Oak (though I do not understand some of the numbers, e;g; 1.75, 2 etc. Surely it should just be 0, 1 and 3? Apart from the difference).
Thanks Selly Oak (though I do not understand some of the numbers, e;g; 1.75, 2 etc. Surely it should just be 0, 1 and 3? Apart from the difference).
Balham
S24SU Seer
Jumping into SellyOakBlade 's place
We didn't play the sides relegated from last season's Championship (Pompey, Doncaster & Coventry) so SellyOak has taken the points we got from the games against the three promoted sides as last season's scores.
Home: we got 1 point from 3 games (D v Wendy, L v Huddersfield, L v Charlton) hence 0.33 ppg
Away: we got 3 points from 3 games (W v Huddersfield, L v Wendy, L v Charlton) hence 1 ppg
Similarly, the results against the sides relegated to League 2 have been put against the sides promoted from there. Home: we got 10 points from 4 games (W v Rochdale, W v Wycombe, W v Chesterfield, D v Exeter) hence 2.50ppg
Away: we got 7 points from 4 games (W v Rochdale, W v Chesterfield, D v Exeter, L v Wycombe) hence 1.75ppg
Thus by drawing with Doncaster we got 1 point: 0.67pts more than we averaged against the promoted sides last season and the same logic applies to the 2.67pt increase the win against Portsmouth gave.
NB - it's when you look at it like this that you realise (again) just how shit we were against the top teams last season.
Ollessendro
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Thanks Balham Blade. Makes sense now. I was thinking that he would have put relegation/promotion teams in order (for example Swindon as winners of the 4th swap with Wycome who finished 4th bottom, Udders plays offs swap with Donny bottom etc) but I can see the way you have explained/Selly Oak is doing is better.
Selly
Ask me about Updog...
Is the right answer.
An alternative way of looking at it would be to front load the equivaent games, so rather than giving 0.33 PPG against the sides that came down, we allocate 1pt to teh first game, and 0 pts to teh others
For the Home games against relegated teams we'd allocate 3 pts to the first 3 games this season, and 1 to the last.
This would tend to understae our performance against teh average, but we would at least have round numbers to work with. If we did this, we'd still be 2 points ahead of the same games from last season...
grafikhaus
Kraft durch Freude
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- #147
Right, the unbeaten run goes on and we're on course for 92 points. Well done, Blades.
Selly
Ask me about Updog...
And with a point today, a net loss of 0.75 points against last seasons tally, we are now at
+2.08
Against the same games last season, with an excellent opportunity to better last season again on Saturday...
grafikhaus
Kraft durch Freude
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- #149
True, but the MKD game is game 17 - a game we lost last season. However, after that we won a straight 6 on the bounce so it's unlikely we'll be ahead of last season after that little lot. Unless we find a striker.
Selly
Ask me about Updog...
On an equivalent number of games you may be correct (we are currently 3 points up on the position we were at after 16 games last season)
However on the equivalent games against the same opposition (averaging the return against promoted and relegated teams) we are 2.08 point up against last season. And the games to the end of the year are as follows:
NOV 10 MK Dons (A) 0.00
NOV 17 Stevenage (H) 1.00
NOV 20 Crewe (H) R 2.50
NOV 24 Brentford (A) 3.00
DEC 8 Carlisle (A) 0.00
DEC 15 Tranmere (H) 1.00
DEC 22 Crawley (A) R 1.75
DEC 26 Scunthorpe (H) 3.00
DEC 29 Hartlepool (H) 3.00
I dont think a return of 15.25 points from those games is beyond us.
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