Compared with last season...

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SellyOakBlade said:
On an equivalent number of games you may be correct (we are currently 3 points up on the position we were at after 16 games last season)

However on the equivalent games against the same opposition (averaging the return against promoted and relegated teams) we are 2.08 point up against last season. And the games to the end of the year are as follows:

NOV 10 MK Dons (A) 0.00
NOV 17 Stevenage (H) 1.00
NOV 20 Crewe (H) R 2.50
NOV 24 Brentford (A) 3.00
DEC 8 Carlisle (A) 0.00
DEC 15 Tranmere (H) 1.00
DEC 22 Crawley (A) R 1.75
DEC 26 Scunthorpe (H) 3.00
DEC 29 Hartlepool (H) 3.00

I dont think a return of 15.25 points from those games is beyond us.
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I'd be disappointed with less than 15 from that lot
 

The kickers will be

january - 12.5points from 5 games
february - 11.08 from 5 games
march - 11.75 from 6 games

There isn`t a lot of room for slip ups in there, so the further ahead of last season we can get now, the better
 
I'd tek another 0-0 bore draw on Sat-di. I'd be ovver the moon if we nicked it 1 nowt!! :)
 
Ollessendro said:
I'd tek another 0-0 bore draw on Sat-di. I'd be ovver the moon if we nicked it 1 nowt!! :)
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you might be but theres plenty be moaning if we only dare win 1-0

we actually only needed 1 goal to make the goals for against exactly 2-1 in games as weve scored 19 and only conceded 10 sao 1-0 will give us symetry
if we can keep this ratio we will not be far off
see many complaints about not scoring , but to have only conceded 10 in 16 is praiseworthy

again the oldest adage in football is win your homes draw away to be a success
we have won 8 drawn 8 , which statistically is perfection
 
blade too long said:
you might be but theres plenty be moaning if we only dare win 1-0

we actually only needed 1 goal to make the goals for against exactly 2-1 in games as weve scored 19 and only conceded 10 sao 1-0 will give us symetry
if we can keep this ratio we will not be far off
see many complaints about not scoring , but to have only conceded 10 in 16 is praiseworthy

again the oldest adage in football is win your homes draw away to be a success
we have won 8 drawn 8 , which statistically is perfection
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Yeah but you still use your mobile in the bath
 
Not sure about the maths round here, but I can't be bothered to work it out myself, because it will make no difference.

Sorry.

HH
 
If we consider that last year we suffered from an inability to get results from the teams in and around us at the top then the set of results so far this season isn't making pretty reading either. Of the teams in the current top 9 we have played 4 games. Of the 12 points available from these games we have accrued only 3 - that's a 25% return or to put it another way 0.75 points per game which is a long way short of a target of 2 points per game on average required for promotion - which would give us 92 points.

If we have 16 games to cover from those sides around us and maintain an average 0.75 points per game as we have done from the first 4 of those ties we will get 12 points from a possible 48 - if we average 2 points per game from our other fixtures, of which there will be 30, it follows that out final points total will be 72. That's a fair number short of the target of 92 we may need for automatic and it's only just about scraping into play off positions.
 
84 might just be enough for 2nd this year Kenny. That said, I'd like to see us at least trying to beat the teams around us when we play them ......
 
Ollessendro said:
84 might just be enough for 2nd this year Kenny. That said, I'd like to see us at least trying to beat the teams around us when we play them ......
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Agree Olle - it's one thing going to Old Trafford or Villa Park and keeping things tight at the back so you minimise the goals against but it's another thing entirely going to the County Ground and Stadium MK doing the same. At one level you can understand it and getting a draw would seem like a victory but at this level I think we deserve more than to turn up and pay to watch the potential of one, possibly two goal bound efforts in 90 mins being the only cause for excitement. I thought football was more than that.
 
Sod 2nd, I want to see us grab this division by the balls and finish 1st.

This might be one of the few times in my life where I get to see us actually win a league.
 
y=points
x=matches
y=1.9845x-0.9085
y=1.9845x46-0.9085
y= 90.3785

Graf, I think your line of best fit is a little out. You can see this as you have more red above the line than below? I have total points at 90.3785.

HH
 

Right. having racked my brains, consulted Darren's post #133, removed my shoes and socks etc., I reckon the formula is:

Current points ÷ Match number x 46 (i.e. total matches in season)

Therefore, we're now on 35 points after yesterdays match (Match 18), thus:

35 ÷ 18 x 46 = 89.4444444 etc.

I may be wrong. It's been known to happen...
 
Graf, I can see that your formula is calculating a simple average. Fair enough.

In my calculation I used "linear regression" to determine a line of best fit to the data set (matches and points) which produces, shall we say a more sophisticated forecast.

Let's stick with your formula. If your interested in how I worked out my answer throw me a pm and I will find the excel web page guidance which I used to refresh my memory of how the maths all worked out.

Cheers mate. HH
 
Very positive result yesterday. Not only a cracking performance, but better result than last year. Where is SellyOakBlade and his alternative analysis. We obviously got the same result against MK Dons, but have a plus 2 from yesterday (as we obviously drew at home against Stevenage last season).
 
Ollessendro said:
Very positive result yesterday. Not only a cracking performance, but better result than last year. Where is SellyOakBlade and his alternative analysis. We obviously got the same result against MK Dons, but have a plus 2 from yesterday (as we obviously drew at home against Stevenage last season).
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Gained 2 points on last season yesterday, so we are now 4.08 points ahead of last season.

I'll post the full listing from work tomorrow, assuming I remember.

Suffice to say last season we took 5.5 points from the next 2, so anything less than 6 points sees us drop back again.
 
SellyOakBlade said:
Gained 2 points on last season yesterday, so we are now 4.08 points ahead of last season.

I'll post the full listing from work tomorrow, assuming I remember.

Suffice to say last season we took 5.5 points from the next 2, so anything less than 6 points sees us drop back again.
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here we go:

Last Season Oppo 12-13 Points Change Oppo
AUG 18 Shrewsbury (H) R 2.50 3 0.50
AUG 21 Coventry (A) P 1.00 1 0.00
AUG 25 Colchester (A) 1.00 1 0.00
SEP 1 Bournemouth (H) 3.00 3 0.00
SEP 8 Scunthorpe (A) 1.00 1 0.00
SEP 15 Bury (H) 3.00 1 -2.00
SEP 18 Doncaster (H) P 0.33 1 0.67
SEP 22 Yeovil (A) 3.00 3 0.00
SEP 29 Notts County (H) 3.00 1 -2.00
OCT 2 Hartlepool (A) 3.00 3 0.00
OCT 6 Leyton Orient (A) 1.00 3 2.00
OCT 13 Oldham (H) 0.00 1 1.00
OCT 20 Preston (A) 3.00 3 0.00
OCT 23 Walsall (H) 3.00 3 0.00
OCT 27 Portsmouth (H) P 0.33 3 2.67
NOV 6 Swindon (A) R 1.75 1 -0.75
NOV 10 MK Dons (A) 0.00 0 0.00
NOV 17 Stevenage (H) 1.00 3 2.00

Total +4.08

Upcoming games:

NOV 20 Crewe (H) R 2.50
NOV 24 Brentford (A) 3.00
DEC 8 Carlisle (A) 0.00
DEC 15 Tranmere (H) 1.00
DEC 22 Crawley (A) R 1.75
DEC 26 Scunthorpe (H) 3.00
DEC 29 Hartlepool (H) 3.00

14.25 points needed for parity before Year End, not an easy set of fixtures either.
 
Well Scunny and Hartlepool are far and away the worst teams in this division IMO, and both are home games. That's 6 points right there. Crewe should be another three points, I'd take draws against Tranmere and Carlisle (even though they don't look the same side as last year) and I really don't know what to make of Crawley. Brentford have found some form but I'd say they are beatable. I reckon 14 points is about par, personally.
 
moDtheGod said:
Well Scunny and Hartlepool are far and away the worst teams in this division IMO, and both are home games. That's 6 points right there. Crewe should be another three points, I'd take draws against Tranmere and Carlisle (even though they don't look the same side as last year) and I really don't know what to make of Crawley. Brentford have found some form but I'd say they are beatable. I reckon 14 points is about par, personally.
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Don`t disagree, it would still leave us 3.83 up on last season.

And I still think 90 points would win the title this season,
 
Ollessendro said:
Very positive result yesterday. Not only a cracking performance, but better result than last year. Where is SellyOakBlade and his alternative analysis. We obviously got the same result against MK Dons, but have a plus 2 from yesterday (as we obviously drew at home against Stevenage last season).
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Obviously ;)
 
Match 19 and closing in on last season's start. An incredible match (not the fantastic 3-3 draw that it might suggest) but well played Crewe - the best team at the Lane this season. Just shows that you've got to set up a team who can both play and 'mix it' to get out of this crap division.

19draw.gif
 
Last Season Oppo 12-13 Points Change Oppo Running Total
AUG 18 Shrewsbury (H) R 2.50 3 0.50 0.50
AUG 21 Coventry (A) P 1.00 1 0.00 0.50
AUG 25 Colchester (A) 1.00 1 0.00 0.50
SEP 1 Bournemouth (H) 3.00 3 0.00 0.50
SEP 8 Scunthorpe (A) 1.00 1 0.00 0.50
SEP 15 Bury (H) 3.00 1 -2.00 -1.50
SEP 18 Doncaster (H) P 0.33 1 0.67 -0.83
SEP 22 Yeovil (A) 3.00 3 0.00 -0.83
SEP 29 Notts County (H) 3.00 1 -2.00 -2.83
OCT 2 Hartlepool (A) 3.00 3 0.00 -2.83
OCT 6 Leyton Orient (A) 1.00 3 2.00 -0.83
OCT 13 Oldham (H) 0.00 1 1.00 0.17
OCT 20 Preston (A) 3.00 3 0.00 0.17
OCT 23 Walsall (H) 3.00 3 0.00 0.17
OCT 27 Portsmouth (H) P 0.33 3 2.67 2.83
NOV 6 Swindon (A) R 1.75 1 -0.75 2.08
NOV 10 MK Dons (A) 0.00 0 0.00 2.08
NOV 17 Stevenage (H) 1.00 3 2.00 4.08
NOV 20 Crewe (H) R 2.50 1 -1.50 2.58

2.58 points up on last season now

NOV 24 Brentford (A) 3.00
DEC 8 Carlisle (A) 0.00
DEC 15 Tranmere (H) 1.00
DEC 22 Crawley (A) R 1.75
DEC 26 Scunthorpe (H) 3.00
DEC 29 Hartlepool (H) 3.00

4 points from the next 2 games wil be a very decent return...
 
SellyOakBlade said:
I still think 90 points would win the title this season,
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I agree with that. The division is gash, but more importantly there are a lot of teams at the same level. For me there is little difference between Crawley, Swindon, Notts County, Donny, Brentford, Stevenage and MK Dons. All play off contenders, but none look good enough to win the league. Tranmere do on current form, but will it last. I have said before, that I think a low 80's will be enough for automatic promotion this term. If we get above 83 points we'll be top 2.
 

Ollessendro said:
I agree with that. The division is gash, but more importantly there are a lot of teams at the same level. For me there is little difference between Crawley, Swindon, Notts County, Donny, Brentford, Stevenage and MK Dons. All play off contenders, but none look good enough to win the league. Tranmere do on current form, but will it last. I have said before, that I think a low 80's will be enough for automatic promotion this term. If we get above 83 points we'll be top 2.
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I was going to take a look at the league table after 19 games last season, but the new "improved" website appears to have removed the capabiolity to view the Table as it was after any given fixture for reasons that escape me...
 
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