Compared with last season...

[Ollessendro]

After Match 11 and we're ahead!

View attachment 5318

Good work grafikhaus. Keep the analysis up! Be really interesting to see how this progresses.

I have heard a few people saying that the league is competitive this year and many saying it is shit. The big question will how many points we need to get to go up. It is way too early for this, but I had 30 mins spare on my lunch break and thought I'd pull out the points of the top 3 from the last 20 years:

we all know last season
2010-2011: Brighton 95, Southampton 92 - 3rd Udders 87
09-2010: Norwich 95, Leeds 86 - Milwall 85
08-09: Leicester 97, Peterborugh 89 - MK Dons 87
07-08: Swansea 92, Forrest 82 - Donny 80
06-07: Scunny 91, Bristol C 85 - Blackpool 83
05-06: Southend 82, Colchester 79 - Brentford 76
04-05: Luton 98, Hull 86 - Tranmere 79
03-04: Plymouth 90, QPR 83 - Bristol C 82
02-03: Wigan 100), Crewe 86 - Bristol C 83
01-02: Brighton 90, Reading 84 - Brentford 83
00-01: Milwall 91, Rotherham 93 - Reading 86
99-00: PNE 95, Burnley 88 - Gillingham 85
98-99: Fulham 101, Walsall 87 - Man City 82
97-98: Watford 88, Bristol C 85 - Grimsby 72
96-97: Bury 84, Stockport 82 - Luton 78
95-96: Swindon 96, Oxford 83 - Blackpool 82
94-95: Brm 89, Brentford 85 - Crewe 83
93-94: Reading 89, Port Vale 88 - Plymouth 85

So looking at the 3rd place teams and the points needed to get promotion:
- Range 76-90
Mean average = 82.5
Median = 83
Mode = 83

83 is the magic number!

Let's hope we are looking at a 04-05 or 05-06! Even an 07-08. The last few years the points have been quite high, but I think in each of the last few years there have been some good sides. I am not sure that is the case for this season.

Looking at it from a historical perspective suggests that getting in the mid 80's will get you up. Our current form would leave us just short (shown by grafikaus analysis) but would take us up if the points score is a lower one (like in 5 of the last 19).

 

[Bath Blade]

Good work grafikhaus. Keep the analysis up! Be really interesting to see how this progresses.

I have heard a few people saying that the league is competitive this year and many saying it is shit. The big question will how many points we need to get to go up. It is way too early for this, but I had 30 mins spare on my lunch break and thought I'd pull out the points of the top 3 from the last 20 years:

we all know last season
2010-2011: Brighton 95, Southampton 92 - 3rd Udders 87
09-2010: Norwich 95, Leeds 86 - Milwall 85
08-09: Leicester 97, Peterborugh 89 - MK Dons 87
07-08: Swansea 92, Forrest 82 - Donny 80
06-07: Scunny 91, Bristol C 85 - Blackpool 83
05-06: Southend 82, Colchester 79 - Brentford 76
04-05: Luton 98, Hull 86 - Tranmere 79
03-04: Plymouth 90, QPR 83 - Bristol C 82
02-03: Wigan 100), Crewe 86 - Bristol C 83
01-02: Brighton 90, Reading 84 - Brentford 83
00-01: Milwall 91, Rotherham 93 - Reading 86
99-00: PNE 95, Burnley 88 - Gillingham 85
98-99: Fulham 101, Walsall 87 - Man City 82
97-98: Watford 88, Bristol C 85 - Grimsby 72
96-97: Bury 84, Stockport 82 - Luton 78
95-96: Swindon 96, Oxford 83 - Blackpool 82
94-95: Brm 89, Brentford 85 - Crewe 83
93-94: Reading 89, Port Vale 88 - Plymouth 85

So looking at the 3rd place teams and the points needed to get promotion:
- Range 76-90
Mean average = 82.5
Median = 83
Mode = 83

83 is the magic number!

Let's hope we are looking at a 04-05 or 05-06! Even an 07-08. The last few years the points have been quite high, but I think in each of the last few years there have been some good sides. I am not sure that is the case for this season.

Looking at it from a historical perspective suggests that getting in the mid 80's will get you up. Our current form would leave us just short (shown by grafikaus analysis) but would take us up if the points score is a lower one (like in 5 of the last 19).

So taking the trend of the last five years, the division is clearly getting incrementally stronger each year, suggesting 95+ points will be required for automatic promotion this year, and about 92 will be required for third.

 

[Ollessendro]

So taking the trend of the last five years, the division is clearly getting incrementally stronger each year, suggesting 95+ points will be required for automatic promotion this year, and about 92 will be required for third.

You clearly cannot have watched any third tier games this season!?!

 

[Highbury_Blade]

So taking the trend of the last five years, the division is clearly getting incrementally stronger each year, suggesting 95+ points will be required for automatic promotion this year, and about 92 will be required for third.

You clearly cannot have watched any third tier games this season!?!

You could argue that the high scores in recent seasons means the division is actually becoming weaker, with a couple of teams able to dominate.

 

[Hartley Hare]

I say fellas, what catches my eye is how many current premier league teams are in that list. Eight by my quick count.

Amazing.

 

[Trigger Blade]

I say fellas, what catches my eye is how many current premier league teams are in that list. Eight by my quick count.

Amazing.

There's also about nine that are either League 2 or lower, which, as they were getting promoted in the season in question, is even more amazing, they've dropped at least two leagues since going up.......

 

[BladeFisher]

Don't forget G, predicting the future, based on the past, is like driving your car blindfold looking out the backwindow.

Since when? Have you some new mathematical theory, spill the beans!

 

[Ollessendro]

You could argue that the high scores in recent seasons means the division is actually becoming weaker, with a couple of teams able to dominate.

My comment to Bath was tongue in cheek, but you are right Highbury. It could be argued that there is an upwards trend and that we are looking at another bit total this year. Certainly if you took Tranmere and Stevenage's predicted points, from their results so far, then you might have some big points tallies. It could also be argued that in the last few seasons we had some very good teams down there (Saints, Brighton and Udders one year, Us, Pigs, Charlton and Udders another, Norwich and Leeds the year before) and without any stand out teams we are due another mid 2000's points tally. My opinion is that things with level out a bit and we'll end up with a lower points tally this year, however that could be a mixture of wishful thinking and speculation.

I popped the stats up ust to show from a historical point of view. I am not saying at all that if we get 83 points then we'll go up. I found the stats interesting and thought they might create a bit of debate. For me it gives me a bit of confidence that we could potentially scoe less points than last year and still get comfortably promoted.

 

[Highbury_Blade]

Hey Ollessendro, I did some mildly pointless excel work yesterday looking at the minimum points for promotion (Via Automatic), and the minimum points to avoid relegation, the theory being that the more competitive a league is, the lower the difference between the two figures would be. In the last four seasons, the trend is that the difference between those two figures is getting larger, indicating a less competitive league.


Of course it depends on what your definition of a strong league is. 'More competitive' isn't necessarily analogous to 'Stronger'.

 

[blade too long]

It all depends on the number of drawn matches
every drawn game means 1 point disappears
if every team draws 10 average , points totals are higher
draw 15 , they are all 5 points less, theres been a lot of draws so far

 

[Ollessendro]

Hey Ollessendro, I did some mildly pointless excel work yesterday looking at the minimum points for promotion (Via Automatic), and the minimum points to avoid relegation, the theory being that the more competitive a league is, the lower the difference between the two figures would be. In the last four seasons, the trend is that the difference between those two figures is getting larger, indicating a less competitive league.


Of course it depends on what your definition of a strong league is. 'More competitive' isn't necessarily analogous to 'Stronger'.

Interesting stuff. Looking at the last 4 years the trend clearly shows that a high tally should be expected. However, should we just ignore the previous years. Can we just ignore 04-05, 05-06 and 07-08? If you widen your sample size, then you'll quickly see that the trend disappears. In 07-08 Swansea and Forrest, the promoted teams, were the top 2 at this stage*****

I think from an anecdotal point of view it is difficult to tell whether the division is 'more competitive' or 'stonger' (in that a few teams are much better than anyone else). I think last year from ealry on it was evident that Charlton, SWFC, SUFC, Udders and MK Dons were miles better than the rest of the league. Of course I have hindsightwith me now, but the table at this stage last year pretty much reflects that*

The year before Brighton were leading at this stage, but Saints were nowhere** and the year before Norwich were nowhere, but Leeds were top***. In 08-09 Leicester were looking good, but Posh were a bit off the pace ****. So in a nut shell it is not conclusive.

In another thread (table starting to take shape) I said I thought we are starting to seem that there are a few teams that are much better than most. SUFC are in this bracket, MK Dons too. I think that Swindon, Stevenage and possibly Tranmere could be included in this (though there are question marks over these teams).


* http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2011-2012/table/2011-10-01
**http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2010-2011/table/2010-10-09
*** http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2010-2011/table/2010-10-09
**** http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2008-2009/table/2008-10-18
***** http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2007-2008/table/2007-10-15

 

[blade too long]

there 12games each week 46 times so 552 games per season
all games drawn = 1104 points ranging all games results = 1656 points
generally falls between 1350 and 1475 points shared between 24 clubs
so theres quite some scope for variation, dependant on the number of games getting positive results
win more and you go up though is still the best pointer

 

[Patrick Suffaux]

Historical data might be interesting for the stattos amongst us but it proves nothing really. There are too many variables in football.

 

[Ollessendro]

Historical data might be interesting for the stattos amongst us but it proves nothing really. There are too many variables in football.

Whilst I agree that are many variables affecting football, to say historical data shows nowt is pure codswallop. What I have pulled out shows a clear range where points to get promoted falls in. Looking at recent trends shows that we might need to get a high points this year. But then looking back a bit further suggests we might be ok with a mid 90's points tally. At this stage I agree Pat, that it all speculative. But it is quite clear that history gives an indication of what will happen. Personally I think it is really fascinating too. In 5 of the last 18 season a tally of 90 points would have won us the league! It shows that we were pretty damn unlucky, as in every other season we would have been promoted with last seasons points tally. I also think it is interesting look at some of the promoted teams and the success stories (Norwich, Wigan, Fulham, Reading, QPR, Southampton and Swansea) but also the one's worse off (Rotherham, Luton, Port Vale, Stockport, Oxford and Plymouth).

 

[Hartley Hare]

Since when? Have you some new mathematical theory, spill the beans!

My comment, was a reflection on the shortcomings of linear regression as a model to extrapolate data.

I am just a simple fella, my math knowledge doesn't extend much beyond Tom and the two beans problem which still baffles me.

HH.

 

[Darren]

It's all about probability isn't it?

Prior to last season, since the paly offs came in in their present format in 1988-89 there had been, prior to last season, 44 times when there were 2 autoamtic promotion places available in a given division of 24 teams (i.e. all 2nd and 3rd tier seasons except 94-95 when there was only one automatic place), so that amounts to 88 teams promoted. In that period only once (Sunderland in the 2nd tier in 97-98) had 90 points not been enough for an automatic place.

You could tehrefore have said, at the start of last season, that if we got 90 points there was an 87/88 chance - i.e a 98.9% chance - that we would get promoted. We would all have said "I like those odds". Unfortunately, as got the 1.1% chance...

 

[Patrick Suffaux]

Whilst I agree that are many variables affecting football, to say historical data shows nowt is pure codswallop. What I have pulled out shows a clear range where points to get promoted falls in. Looking at recent trends shows that we might need to get a high points this year. But then looking back a bit further suggests we might be ok with a mid 90's points tally. At this stage I agree Pat, that it all speculative. But it is quite clear that history gives an indication of what will happen. Personally I think it is really fascinating too. In 5 of the last 18 season a tally of 90 points would have won us the league! It shows that we were pretty damn unlucky, as in every other season we would have been promoted with last seasons points tally. I also think it is interesting look at some of the promoted teams and the success stories (Norwich, Wigan, Fulham, Reading, QPR, Southampton and Swansea) but also the one's worse off (Rotherham, Luton, Port Vale, Stockport, Oxford and Plymouth).

Still think it doesn't prove a lot, though I do find it interesting to read. Like yourself I am a bit of statto when it comes to football and enjoy discussing these things even though I like being objective about it

Anything can happen over a 46 game season and last season disproved the reliability of historical data. Like Darren says, it's a probability thing (at best). It doesn't have any conclusive meaning and as shown last season there is nothing to suggest that two or more teams can't get 90 points, even if it hasn't happened often.

For the record I dont view our failure to go up last season with 90 points as unlucky. Two teams were better than us over 46 games. Perhaps it would have been enough any other year but I could just as easily argue that with the same team we might not have got 90 points another year. A weaker division with fewer strong rivals may not have driven us to get that many points (may not have kept us on our toes as much). This is another variable that is imponderable.

 

[Kenilworth]

I still think it's folly to expect Tranny to fail. They have been in the 2nd tier of English football before on a meagre budget so why not this year with Ronnie Moore showing, once again, he has the experience to manage and motivate a group of young lads? The fact is, if they do not falter then there is going to be a high points total required for whoever finishes 2nd this season. What are the odds that we reach 90 points again, finish outside the top two and fail again in the play offs (probably no need to calculate the last part of that equation - it's surely a given)?

Unthinkable? - It's SUFC remember?

 

[dublin 10 blade]

This is a ''topic''that has vile tendency's all over it.
While I think we will get promoted, i'm not going to give it the big un, you win bugger all in October. The teams in this league have to be beaten and we have to earn that right, not like the vile would have all and sundry believe tinpot clubs,blah,blah,blah. Also while I'm delighted by their problems both on and off the pitch by reading this and other sites I will spend no further time discussing them. Also think we'll win satdi[sorry for the no show B.B] and we could be second at that stage,behind Toytowns ex manager.

 

[dublin 10 blade]

ah well im not letting tranmere piddle on my parade. doesnt matter anyway. 2nd place is as good as 1st. let em run away with it as long as they keep beating everybody else at the top.

its raining 3 points
hallelujah
its raining 3 points
ohhh yeah!

lets be honest, who thought we'd get 6 points from the 2 away games?

Ahem,I did and predicted a 3-1 and 2-0 win for the Blades, Orient been the 2-nil'er rest my case my lord[think we'll win on satdi an all]

 

[Ollessendro]

Still think it doesn't prove a lot, though I do find it interesting to read. Like yourself I am a bit of statto when it comes to football and enjoy discussing these things even though I like being objective about it

Anything can happen over a 46 game season and last season disproved the reliability of historical data. Like Darren says, it's a probability thing (at best). It doesn't have any conclusive meaning and as shown last season there is nothing to suggest that two or more teams can't get 90 points, even if it hasn't happened often.

For the record I dont view our failure to go up last season with 90 points as unlucky. Two teams were better than us over 46 games. Perhaps it would have been enough any other year but I could just as easily argue that with the same team we might not have got 90 points another year. A weaker division with fewer strong rivals may not have driven us to get that many points (may not have kept us on our toes as much). This is another variable that is imponderable.

The historical data suggests that last season was a one off. Or two off if you count what happened to Sunderland. The stats/facts/history gives you a good indication of what is likely to happen in the future. Care to wager that the points to get promoted will be above 90 or below 76? I think not. I am happy to stick my neck out on the statistics and say that I think the points tally will be around 83 (between 80 and 86 to be safe). I'll wager anyone on that who wants to.

To say that we were not unlucky last season is absolutely ridiculous. To lose your star striker with 3 games to go was desperately unlucky. To equal the points highest points tally ever to not get promoted was unlucky. To lose in the play off finals on pens was unlucky. That is before you look at the teams. My opinion is that Wednesday were not better than us last season. They just got a hefty dose of luck at the end of the season. Rochdale missing a last minute penalty in Jones first game, Antonio's late winner when we played MK Dons and Brentford battering them but not winning in the penultiamte game. That is not even taking into consideration BT's last minute chances against MK Dons and Stevenage, the whole back 4 being out away at Walsall, imploding at Oldham etc. I find it bizare that people can look back at the events of the season and say that United should not have gone up and got what we deserved.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

It's all about probability isn't it?

Prior to last season, since the paly offs came in in their present format in 1988-89 there had been, prior to last season, 44 times when there were 2 autoamtic promotion places available in a given division of 24 teams (i.e. all 2nd and 3rd tier seasons except 94-95 when there was only one automatic place), so that amounts to 88 teams promoted. In that period only once (Sunderland in the 2nd tier in 97-98) had 90 points not been enough for an automatic place.

You could tehrefore have said, at the start of last season, that if we got 90 points there was an 87/88 chance - i.e a 98.9% chance - that we would get promoted. We would all have said "I like those odds". Unfortunately, as got the 1.1% chance...

Cracking stuff Darren. I've never thought of it like that.

I'm still a bit pissed off that we conceded at Exeter with the last kick of the season and blew the chance to eclipse Sunderland's record.

 

[blade too long]

It's all about probability isn't it?

Probably

 

[Patrick Suffaux]

The historical data suggests that last season was a one off. Or two off if you count what happened to Sunderland. The stats/facts/history gives you a good indication of what is likely to happen in the future. Care to wager that the points to get promoted will be above 90 or below 76? I think not. I am happy to stick my neck out on the statistics and say that I think the points tally will be around 83 (between 80 and 86 to be safe). I'll wager anyone on that who wants to.

To say that we were not unlucky last season is absolutely ridiculous. To lose your star striker with 3 games to go was desperately unlucky. To equal the points highest points tally ever to not get promoted was unlucky. To lose in the play off finals on pens was unlucky. That is before you look at the teams. My opinion is that Wednesday were not better than us last season. They just got a hefty dose of luck at the end of the season. Rochdale missing a last minute penalty in Jones first game, Antonio's late winner when we played MK Dons and Brentford battering them but not winning in the penultiamte game. That is not even taking into consideration BT's last minute chances against MK Dons and Stevenage, the whole back 4 being out away at Walsall, imploding at Oldham etc. I find it bizare that people can look back at the events of the season and say that United should not have gone up and got what we deserved.

Yes perhaps it was a one or two off and yes there is every chance you will be in the ball park with that figure but there are no guarantees. This season could be a "three off" and there is nothing to suggest it cant be. Unless of course you have statistics to show it definately happens only once every x amount of years? I'm not a betting man so I'll pass on the wager. Although based on current results it would actually be worthwhile for me.....

Tranmere are currently averaging 2.45 pts per game (Projected total = 112.9)
Stevenage are currently averaging 2.09 pts per game (Projected total = 96.1)
Blades are currently averaging 1.90 pts per game (Projected total = 87.4)

I dont expect the top two to keep up that form personally but there is nothing to firmly suggest that they cant or at least get relatively close to it. Just like I can't say you're prediction will be wrong. It wouldn't surprise me at all if your predictions were closer than the above.....you would hope so for United's sake! This is just another example of how you can use numbers to back up any argument. Are we to ignore current form in favour of historical data?

I can understand this argument for being unlucky in the sense that we lost our best player at a crucial time but your argument to me was that we were unlucky due to missing out on a record number of points. The top two got more, end of. It might look unlucky to a statistician but if its not enough points its not enough points. If your argument is more centred around the loss of a key player than perhaps we were unlucky yes. I could just as easily argue that we shouldn't have left ourselves vulnerable to the circumstances and planned ahead better. Not relying on one player to carry us over the line when he might not be there for the run in.

 

[Darren]

Tranmere are currently averaging 2.45 pts per game (Projected total = 112.9)
Stevenage are currently averaging 2.09 pts per game (Projected total = 96.1)
Blades are currently averaging 1.90 pts per game (Projected total = 87.4)

I dont expect the top two to keep up that form personally but there is nothing to firmly suggest that they cant or at least get relatively close to it. .

Except that no-one has ever got near 112 points.

 

[Patrick Suffaux]

Except that no-one has ever got near 112 points.

Haha indeed and you wouldn't expect Tranmere to but at the rate they're going at who's to say they cant get 90+?

They might not but I've got the numbers there to show they can.

That magic word of probability again Darren!

 

[Pinchy]

Haha indeed and you wouldn't expect Tranmere to but at the rate they're going at who's to say they cant get 90+?

They might not but I've got the numbers there to show they can.

That magic word of probability again Darren!

I've got £100 says they won't!!

 

[Revolution]

I'm still a bit pissed off that we conceded at Exeter with the last kick of the season and blew the chance to eclipse Sunderland's record.

I'm not pissed off about it, but it would have been a very United thing to do, which would fit nicely with our record playoff final defeats, our final day relegations and going down with a positive goal difference...

 

[Ollessendro]

Yes perhaps it was a one or two off and yes there is every chance you will be in the ball park with that figure but there are no guarantees. This season could be a "three off" and there is nothing to suggest it cant be. Unless of course you have statistics to show it definately happens only once every x amount of years? I'm not a betting man so I'll pass on the wager. Although based on current results it would actually be worthwhile for me.....

Tranmere are currently averaging 2.45 pts per game (Projected total = 112.9)
Stevenage are currently averaging 2.09 pts per game (Projected total = 96.1)
Blades are currently averaging 1.90 pts per game (Projected total = 87.4)

I dont expect the top two to keep up that form personally but there is nothing to firmly suggest that they cant or at least get relatively close to it. Just like I can't say you're prediction will be wrong. It wouldn't surprise me at all if your predictions were closer than the above.....you would hope so for United's sake! This is just another example of how you can use numbers to back up any argument. Are we to ignore current form in favour of historical data?

I can understand this argument for being unlucky in the sense that we lost our best player at a crucial time but your argument to me was that we were unlucky due to missing out on a record number of points. The top two got more, end of. It might look unlucky to a statistician but if its not enough points its not enough points. If your argument is more centred around the loss of a key player than perhaps we were unlucky yes. I could just as easily argue that we shouldn't have left ourselves vulnerable to the circumstances and planned ahead better. Not relying on one player to carry us over the line when he might not be there for the run in.

It has happened twice in 44 years. So there is your statistic: once every 22 years. You'll not be able to find anything that says it will definately happen every X years. You should know as a stato that you would need an infinite sample to do that. You can only guarantee 50/50 on a coin toss if you do it an infinite number of times.

I would never say current form should be discounted, but indeed I have got something to show that it is not a great predictor of end of season finishing. I've just taken the last 8 years (since it became League One) and shown the top 2 and then any other significant teams (* champions, ** 2nd).

Last seasons top 2 after 11 games: Charlton* 27, MK Dons 22 (4th Pigs** 22)
2010/11 Brighton* 22, Carlisle 19 (13th Southampton** 15)
2009/10 Leeds** 27, Charlton 24 (7th Norwich* 16)
2008/9 Scunthorpe 25, Leicester 23*, (8th Peterborough** 18)
2007/2008 Swansea* 20, Tranmere 20, (4th Forrest** 19)
2006/2007 Forrest 22, Tranmere 21, (3rd Bristol C** 21, 9th Scunny* 16)
2005/2006 Swansea 23, Southend* 23, (14th Colchester** 14)
2004/2005 Luton Town* 29, Brentford 22, (5th Hull** 19)

Not in any of those 8 seasons have the top 2 after 11 games been the top 2 at the end of the season. However, on 5 of those occassions the leaders after 11 games have gone up (4 times as 1st and once as 2nd). Also 2nd place in after 11 games have gone on to become Champs twice. A team in 7th one year (Norwich) went on to win the league at a canter and a team sat 14th at this stage also went up automatically.

Of the 16 teams in the top 2 at this stage after 11 games, 7 of them have got promoted*.

We'll have to agree to disagree about the league table last year. I am a bit bored of having the league table lies argument over and over. You see it in black and white. Whereas I see there being grey areas (randomness/luck). You obviously must believe that every team gets exactly what they deserve at the end of every single game. On the Evans thing though .... we did bring in a replacement. Will Hoskins. He did his groin and was sent back to his parent club a few games before Ched's trial. Unlucky? imo yes!



* I realise you include the Pigs (level on points with 3rd), Forrest 1 point behind 3rd in 07/08) and Bristol C (level in points with 3rd in 06/07) as 'in form' teams and say it sways towards if you were doing well after 11 games then you are in with a good chance of getting promoted. However that is dicounting the teams in 2nd in all of those years that did not go up.

 

[Ollessendro]

oops - double post