Compared with last season...

[Ollessendro]

I was going to take a look at the league table after 19 games last season, but the new "improved" website appears to have removed the capabiolity to view the Table as it was after any given fixture for reasons that escape me...

I did some pointless geeky analysis earlier, see the 2nd tab in the spreadsheet attached. You can see that last season Charlton and the Pigs had higher points than Tranmere and we have (Huddersfield were 3rd with 38 and this season MK Dons have 33 points in 3rd) suggesting a lower points tally is on the cards this term.

Of the 20 seasons since the league went to 3 points for a win, in the third tier, the team in 1st after 19 games have gone on to win it in the majority of cases (12 out of 20) and get automatic promotion in 14/20 cases. However, that leaves 6 times that the leaders at this stage have fluffed it.

(Perhaps worrying for us?!) The teams in 2nd at this stage have only gone on to get promoted 7 out of 20 times. But a quarter of the time 2nd have gone on to actually win the league.

Half of the time teams in 3rd (5) and 4th (5) have gone on to take an automatic spot. There's some interesting one's in there too. Look at Bolton in 91/92, lying down in 14th with only 26 points and 9 points behind 2nd. Yet they went on to get 90 points that season. Other teams have come from low positions or points tallies to get automatic promotion too.

 

[kingston RAWW]

I was going to take a look at the league table after 19 games last season, but the new "improved" website appears to have removed the capabiolity to view the Table as it was after any given fixture for reasons that escape me...

Try footstats.co.uk where you can view any league table at any stage in any season.

 

[moDtheGod]

Probably not clicking that link, to be honest. It doesn't sound safe for work.

 

[Darren]

View attachment 5434

Probably not clicking that link, to be honest. It doesn't sound safe for work.

Yes, historical league one anal.... Ched and Gary Madine in footage they would really you didn't see?

 

[oldblade]

I did some pointless geeky analysis earlier, see the 2nd tab in the spreadsheet attached. You can see that last season Charlton and the Pigs had higher points than Tranmere and we have (Huddersfield were 3rd with 38 and this season MK Dons have 33 points in 3rd) suggesting a lower points tally is on the cards this term.

Of the 20 seasons since the league went to 3 points for a win, in the third tier, the team in 1st after 19 games have gone on to win it in the majority of cases (12 out of 20) and get automatic promotion in 14/20 cases. However, that leaves 6 times that the leaders at this stage have fluffed it.

(Perhaps worrying for us?!) The teams in 2nd at this stage have only gone on to get promoted 7 out of 20 times. But a quarter of the time 2nd have gone on to actually win the league.

Half of the time teams in 3rd (5) and 4th (5) have gone on to take an automatic spot. There's some interesting one's in there too. Look at Bolton in 91/92, lying down in 14th with only 26 points and 9 points behind 2nd. Yet they went on to get 90 points that season. Other teams have come from low positions or points tallies to get automatic promotion too.

The three point win started in 1981-2 season, so your analysis is 10 seasons short!

 

[Ollessendro]

The three point win started in 1981-2 season, so your analysis is 10 seasons short!

Ok, fair do's. My analysis is since the old division 2 started (since the Premiership started really).

 

[Ollessendro]

The three point win started in 1981-2 season, so your analysis is 10 seasons short!

Just for you owd-ers.

There's been 31 seasons since the 3 points system came in for the 81/82 seasons. In those seasons:
- 20 times out of the 31 the team in 1st go on to win it (or 23 out of 31 they've gone on to get automatic promotion).
- Only 9 times out of the 31 has the team in 2nd gone on to finish in the top 2 (though on 5 occassions they have gone on to win the league).
- In fact the team in 3rd has gone on to get promoted more times (10 out of the 31) and win the league on two occassions.
- Teams can win it from anywhere mind (looking at Burnley in 81/82) and there's plenty of other seasons when teams have come from a fair few points behind to go up.

 

[Ollessendro]

Missed the edit time .......

The range of points to get promoted has been from 73 right up to 91. But the mean, median and mode is 84. That's the magic number*.

Current projected points tallies:
- Tranmere: 90
- us: 87
- MK Dons/Donny/Stevenage: 80

The magic number will be more than enough to get promoted this year.

* The magic number for winning the title is 87 (that is the mean/median/mode of points needed to win the league from the 31 seasons - number ranges between 80 and 95).

 

[Kenilworth]

No doubt we will find a way to feck it up again though, eh?

 

[raul]

Right. having racked my brains, consulted Darren's post #133, removed my shoes and socks etc., I reckon the formula is:

Current points ÷ Match number x 46 (i.e. total matches in season)

Therefore, we're now on 35 points after yesterdays match (Match 18), thus:

35 ÷ 18 x 46 = 89.4444444 etc.

I may be wrong. It's been known to happen...

That's Numberwang!

 

[Selly]

That's Numberwang!

Erm, no it isn`t, its clearly WangerNum....

 

[oldblade]

Missed the edit time .......

The range of points to get promoted has been from 73 right up to 91. But the mean, median and mode is 84. That's the magic number*.

Current projected points tallies:
- Tranmere: 90
- us: 87
- MK Dons/Donny/Stevenage: 80

The magic number will be more than enough to get promoted this year.

* The magic number for winning the title is 87 (that is the mean/median/mode of points needed the league from the 31 seasons - number ranges between 80 and 95).

Didn't we try all this projection stuff last season? I seem to remember a thread showing how our form was going and our likely points tally. It consistently showed we were going to get automatic promotion. We all know how accurate a prdeiction that turned out to be!

 

[Ollessendro]

Didn't we try all this projection stuff last season? I seem to remember a thread showing how our form was going and our likely points tally. It consistently showed we were going to get automatic promotion. We all know how accurate a prdeiction that turned out to be!

This analysis just shows that last season was a bit of a freak season. An outlier in statistical terms. In every other season since the 3 points system came in we would have got easily promoted. I am arguing that history suggests it will be lower this season and that 84 points will be enough for promotion. However, the beauty of football means that we could end up with another season like last (albeit unlikely). You only have to look at some of the teams positions after 19 matches and then their position at the end of the season to see things can change a lot (e. g. Oxford on 43 points and did not go up or Cambridge on 28 and went on to win it).

 

[BladeFisher]

Didn't we try all this projection stuff last season? I seem to remember a thread showing how our form was going and our likely points tally. It consistently showed we were going to get automatic promotion. We all know how accurate a prdeiction that turned out to be!

Yes I did one, but was holding off till after Christmas as doing it so early is probably not that accurrate. However, despite much abuse it predicted that Wednesday would get 2nd, so not sure it was inaccurrate, just that people wanted (as usual) to rubbish it.

 

[KenMcnaughtsNuts]

True, but the MKD game is game 17 - a game we lost last season. However, after that we won a straight 6 on the bounce so it's unlikely we'll be ahead of last season after that little lot. Unless we find a striker.

a striker, 2 midfielders and a defence.

 

[grafikhaus]

I'm afraid the reading just gets worse. Game 20:

 

[Ollessendro]

Yes I did one, but was holding off till after Christmas as doing it so early is probably not that accurrate. However, despite much abuse it predicted that Wednesday would get 2nd, so not sure it was inaccurrate, just that people wanted (as usual) to rubbish it.

At this stage last season Wednesday were 2nd (http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2011-2012/table/2011-12-10) and therefore projected to finish 2nd. Which they did. So rubbishing what we've been looking at as an indicator is just daft. Of course it is not a given, because there would have been stages in the latter half of last season where we were set to finish above the pigs (projection wise).

Last Season Oppo 12-13 Points Change Oppo Running Total
AUG 18 Shrewsbury (H) R 2.50 3 0.50 0.50
AUG 21 Coventry (A) P 1.00 1 0.00 0.50
AUG 25 Colchester (A) 1.00 1 0.00 0.50
SEP 1 Bournemouth (H) 3.00 3 0.00 0.50
SEP 8 Scunthorpe (A) 1.00 1 0.00 0.50
SEP 15 Bury (H) 3.00 1 -2.00 -1.50
SEP 18 Doncaster (H) P 0.33 1 0.67 -0.83
SEP 22 Yeovil (A) 3.00 3 0.00 -0.83
SEP 29 Notts County (H) 3.00 1 -2.00 -2.83
OCT 2 Hartlepool (A) 3.00 3 0.00 -2.83
OCT 6 Leyton Orient (A) 1.00 3 2.00 -0.83
OCT 13 Oldham (H) 0.00 1 1.00 0.17
OCT 20 Preston (A) 3.00 3 0.00 0.17
OCT 23 Walsall (H) 3.00 3 0.00 0.17
OCT 27 Portsmouth (H) P 0.33 3 2.67 2.83
NOV 6 Swindon (A) R 1.75 1 -0.75 2.08
NOV 10 MK Dons (A) 0.00 0 0.00 2.08
NOV 17 Stevenage (H) 1.00 3 2.00 4.08
NOV 20 Crewe (H) R 2.50 1 -1.50 2.58

2.58 points up on last season now

NOV 24 Brentford (A) 3.00
DEC 8 Carlisle (A) 0.00
DEC 15 Tranmere (H) 1.00
DEC 22 Crawley (A) R 1.75
DEC 26 Scunthorpe (H) 3.00
DEC 29 Hartlepool (H) 3.00

4 points from the next 2 games wil be a very decent return...

The defeat at Griffin Park, after the win last season, means that we are -0.42 down on last season. However we have a good opportunity to get back on track with our next league game away at Carlisle. Any kind of result there and we are back to doing better than last season (where we of course lost at Brunton Park).

Us, Donny and MK Dons all set to finish on 83 points, with Tranmere set to get 90. A lot will change before then mind. Tranmere are stuttering a bit (as are we) whilst MK Dons are on fire (and Donny too). I reckon MK Dons will go up and then hopefully we will join them.

 

[Kenilworth]

This analysis just shows that last season was a bit of a freak season. An outlier in statistical terms. In every other season since the 3 points system came in we would have got easily promoted. I am arguing that history suggests it will be lower this season and that 84 points will be enough for promotion. However, the beauty of football means that we could end up with another season like last (albeit unlikely). You only have to look at some of the teams positions after 19 matches and then their position at the end of the season to see things can change a lot (e. g. Oxford on 43 points and did not go up or Cambridge on 28 and went on to win it).

What if looking back at previous seasons, when there wasn't so much of a disparity between all sides in a division, is not a good predictor of how the tally of points will add up?

What if last season is now typical of the lop sided division where a few teams dominate and pick up many more points that would have been needed before to gain automatic promotion?

It could be that the only way to get out of this hell hole is by stowing away on HMS Pisstheleague. After all - if more teams the size of Leeds, us, Pigs, Forest, Norwich, Southampton, Coventry, Portsmouth, Coventry etc make the sojourn into third division bobbar, whose to say that 90+ points wont be required every season?

 

[Ollessendro]

What if looking back at previous seasons, when there wasn't so much of a disparity between all sides in a division, is not a good predictor of how the tally of points will add up?

What if last season is now typical of the lop sided division where a few teams dominate and pick up many more points that would have been needed before to gain automatic promotion?

It could be that the only way to get out of this hell hole is by stowing away on HMS Pisstheleague. After all - if more teams the size of Leeds, us, Pigs, Forest, Norwich, Southampton, Coventry, Portsmouth, Coventry etc make the sojourn into third division bobbar, whose to say that 90+ points wont be required every season?

Kenny, the last 5 seasons would suggest that is the trend. Since 2006/7 then 88 points have been needed to get up and we've seen 2 or 3 (even 4) teams tend dominate the division. However, as you have pointed out, there's been some big teams down there: Norwich, Saints, Leeds, Leicester, Swansea and the massive SWFC. The fact that so many teams are bunched around each other (4 points seperate 2nd from 8th and all the top 7 arew a couple of good results from being 1st) suggests it will be closer this year and that the points score will be lower.

But the beauty of football is that you can never tell. Tranmere might go on and run away with it. MK Dons and Donny might carry on their runs and get 90 plus. We could do something similar. But the league being so tight and the teams around us having lost 3, 4 or 5 games out of the 20 suggests anyone can beat anyone. You have been to plenty of games this season. Who would you say the stand out teams are?

It will be interesting to see how it works out. I think we could agree on one thing though; getting 90+ plus points would ensure that we have a great chance that we would go up and we would have less to worry about. Storming the league like Charlton, Brighton, Leicester and Norwich have done in recent years would be nice and save us having to worry if 82/83/84 points would be enough.

 

[grafikhaus]

Game 21. One of those season-winners for us (?) and back on track. Pigs lost as well. Ah, diddums. Great stuff, Blades! Must say, today has given me almost as much pleasure as Max Clifford getting arrested.

 

[Ollessendro]

As we lost way up there in the North West last year, that puts us on +2.58 for the equivalent games last season.

 

[blade too long]

Game 21. One of those season-winners for us (?) and back on track. Pigs lost as well. Ah, diddums. Great stuff, Blades! Must say, today has given me almost as much pleasure as Max Clifford getting arrested.

View attachment 5448

we will be first team to go up with 85.4 points

 

[Selly]

At this stage last season Wednesday were 2nd (http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2011-2012/table/2011-12-10) and therefore projected to finish 2nd. Which they did. So rubbishing what we've been looking at as an indicator is just daft. Of course it is not a given, because there would have been stages in the latter half of last season where we were set to finish above the pigs (projection wise).



The defeat at Griffin Park, after the win last season, means that we are -0.42 down on last season. However we have a good opportunity to get back on track with our next league game away at Carlisle. Any kind of result there and we are back to doing better than last season (where we of course lost at Brunton Park).

Us, Donny and MK Dons all set to finish on 83 points, with Tranmere set to get 90. A lot will change before then mind. Tranmere are stuttering a bit (as are we) whilst MK Dons are on fire (and Donny too). I reckon MK Dons will go up and then hopefully we will join them.

And we are back to +2.58 points ahead of last season....


EDIT: just like Ollessendro said...

 

[blade too long]

if we had got draws at brentford , mk and carlisle we wouldnt have moaned , good away points , so yesterdays win got us the 3 points that would have accrued

 

[anglian blade]

if we had got draws at brentford , mk and carlisle we wouldnt have moaned , good away points , so yesterdays win got us the 3 points that would have accrued

Except if we had drawn all three Brentford and MK Dons would be two more points and two more places below us than they are - so I would have much preferred that.

 

[grafikhaus]

On a similar statistics-based note, the pigs have now got just 15 points from the first 21 games. To get to the 'safe' 50 points to avoid relegation, they'll need to average almost 1.5 points per game over their last 25 fixtures - very difficult as they don't play Peterborough every week.

Jones in.

 

[JohnDenver]

To get to the 'safe' 50 points to avoid relegation, they'll need to average almost 1.5 points per game over their last 25 fixtures

That sounds quite easy in abstract. But after last season's Dave Jones miracle, surely they're due their very own Micky Adams.

 

[Darren]

That sounds quite easy in abstract. But after last season's Dave Jones miracle, surely they're due their very own Micky Adams.

Put it this way, in 25 games, they need to win 10 draw 5 and lose 10 - i.e. consistently acheive mid table form for the rest of the season. Not so easy, for a team that is one of the poorest in the division.

 

[Ollessendro]

That sounds quite easy in abstract. But after last season's Dave Jones miracle, surely they're due their very own Micky Adams.

Never mind, their own Micky Adams. How about THE Micky Adams. He would have them bottom and relegated with 10+ games to spare. Ale house for Wednesday!!? Love it

 

[IOM Blade]

Put it this way, in 25 games, they need to win 10 draw 5 and lose 10 - i.e. consistently acheive mid table form for the rest of the season. Not so easy, for a team that is one of the poorest in the division.

Aye, but a lowly 41 would have been enough for safety in the Championship last year.....