The play-offs contenders run in:

[SB_90]

I had ago on the predictor & with everyone playing everyone. Its going to be ridiculously close. Although i hax it finishing below hope im wrong because i wouldnt be able to take the stress. As we would go into last game level on points with Bristol city & millwall.

Their more chance of predicting the lottery than the final day

 

[Ranmoorblade]

I've got it that O'Connell's disallowed goal at Boro costs us 6th place - that sounds entirely plausible. Interesting that Barnsley are at Derby on the last day, "We're Barns-a-lee, we're keeping you down"?

1

Wolverhampton Wanderers 46 31 9 6 87:40 47 102
2

Cardiff City 46 28 9 9 69:38 31 93
3

Fulham FC 46 26 13 7 83:45 38 91
4

Aston Villa 46 25 10 11 71:43 28 85
5

Derby County 46 20 16 10 66:44 22 76
6

Middlesbrough FC 46 22 10 14 63:42 21 76
7

Sheffield United 46 22 9 15 63:52 11 75
8

Brentford FC 46 20 14 12 67:52 15 74
9

Millwall FC 46 19 14 13 58:46 12 71
10

Bristol City 46 18 15 13 61:51 10 69

If we get to 75 points we'll be in the playoffs.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

Let me first state before being accused of getting carried away or overconfident, Millwall have done excellently to get to 6th and after so many games are there on merit. 3 points is 3 points regardless of who it comes against.

A lot has been made of their unbeaten run (P16 W11 D5) since losing to Norwich on January 1st so I just wanted to dissect some of the underlying details to seek causes for optimism for Saturday!

The unbeaten run is an unbeaten league run. They were knocked out of the FA Cup 1-0 by League One Rochdale who currently occupy one of the League One relegation slots.
The average current placing of the teams faced in this run is between 15th and 16th.
The average current placing of the teams beaten in this run is between 17th to 18th.

Bristol in 8th and Brentford in 10th, both home wins, are the exceptions in that all the other victories are against teams currently in the bottom half, placed 14th to 24th.
They have only faced 2 teams in the top 7 during this run and drew both, at home to Cardiff and Derby.

Their highest placed away victory was a 4-3 thriller in January against 14th placed Leeds. Leeds were down to 10 men after 37 minutes.
Their away record against other teams in the top half reads P9 W0 D5 L4. They still have to go to Boro and ourselves away to complete the away set.

Their remaining home games are against the teams currently lying 2nd and 4th. The highest placed team they have beaten at home is 7th. Their home record vs the rest of the top 6 is P3 W0 D3 L0.

Damn lies and statistics of course and I'm not going to tempt fate by drawing any conclusions or assumptions but some food for thought nonetheless.

UTB

Thanks for that, very interesting. Having seen what their last four games are, I did think to myself that their recent form was probably helped by a lack of having to play top placed teams. Nevertheless, the run will have given them a lot of confidence.

 

[Dec]

Our away record vs. the top half of the table is worse though (P10 W0 D4 L6), which doesn't bode well for our final game of the season.

 

[norfolkblade88]

I’ve got it as

5th Derby 78
6th Boro 76
7th Blades 72
8th PNE 72
9th Milwall72
10th Brentford 70
11th Bristol City 69

Interesting times- who would have thought we had a chance at this stage.

 

[Stretch]

This is my optimistic take on predictions. I have us beating Millwall, Brum and Brizzle but losing to Preston at home. As you will see lots of inconsistency within the chasing pack, hence 4 points separating 6th from 11h .

Not sure how likely this is but it looks nice on paper and also we get to have another go at the mouth and his team of shithouses after they crushingly miss out on goal difference.

Oh and Barnsley go down as well

# Team M. W. D. L. Goals Dif. Pt.
1

Wolverhampton Wanderers 46 31 8 7 89:39 50 101
2

Fulham FC 46 26 12 8 84:48 36 90
3

Cardiff City 46 27 9 10 71:39 32 90
4

Aston Villa 46 25 10 11 72:42 30 85
5

Brentford FC 46 20 14 12 66:51 15 74
6

Sheffield United 46 22 8 16 66:54 12 74
7

Middlesbrough FC 46 21 10 15 64:45 19 73
8

Derby County 46 19 16 11 65:47 18 73
9

Preston North End 46 19 16 11 59:47 12 73
10

Millwall FC 46 19 14 13 58:46 12 71
11

Bristol City 46 18 16 12 66:55 11 70
12

Norwich City 46 14 16 16 50:58 -8 58

 

[snootyfenooty]

This is my optimistic take on predictions. I have us beating Millwall, Brum and Brizzle but losing to Preston at home. As you will see lots of inconsistency within the chasing pack, hence 4 points separating 6th from 11h .

Not sure how likely this is but it looks nice on paper and also we get to have another go at the mouth and his team of shithouses after they crushingly miss out on goal difference.

Oh and Barnsley go down as well

# Team M. W. D. L. Goals Dif. Pt.
1

Wolverhampton Wanderers 46 31 8 7 89:39 50 101
2

Fulham FC 46 26 12 8 84:48 36 90
3

Cardiff City 46 27 9 10 71:39 32 90
4

Aston Villa 46 25 10 11 72:42 30 85
5

Brentford FC 46 20 14 12 66:51 15 74
6

Sheffield United 46 22 8 16 66:54 12 74
7

Middlesbrough FC 46 21 10 15 64:45 19 73
8

Derby County 46 19 16 11 65:47 18 73
9

Preston North End 46 19 16 11 59:47 12 73
10

Millwall FC 46 19 14 13 58:46 12 71
11

Bristol City 46 18 16 12 66:55 11 70
12

Norwich City 46 14 16 16 50:58 -8 58

That's pretty much as I see it. Derby are the ones most likely to default given the games they have to play and their history of bottling it. Brentford are the likely candidates for the traditional last minute rush for a slot. I would however like to see the Blades in 5th, if only to match my pre-season prediction, meaning I can be even more smug than I usually am.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

That's pretty much as I see it. Derby are the ones most likely to default given the games they have to play and their history of bottling it. Brentford are the likely candidates for the traditional last minute rush for a slot. I would however like to see the Blades in 5th, if only to match my pre-season prediction, meaning I can be even more smug than I usually am.

Surely not possible. I mean the smug bit, not 5th.

 

[Houston_Blade]

We win our 4 remaining games, we're in the play offs. This will go down to the last game of the season by the looks of it.

How do you work that out? If we win our remaining games and Millwall lose to us and win the rest of theirs their goal difference could be better than ours. Similarly Boro could win all of theirs and we’d miss out.

 

[Danny_Blade]

I think Fulham will beat Cardiff to 2nd and Millwall will snatch 6th but my predictions say otherwise! Blades only miss out by a point but way down in 11th (GD poor though compared with the others) thats how tight it ends up!

# Team M. W. D. L. Goals Dif. Pt.

1

Wolverhampton Wanderers 46 32 8 6 89:41 48 104

2

Cardiff City 46 28 9 9 72:39 33 93

3

Fulham FC 46 25 14 7 80:43 37 89

4

Aston Villa 46 25 11 10 72:43 29 86

5

Derby County 46 20 16 10 69:48 21 76

6

Middlesbrough FC 46 20 12 14 65:46 19 72

7

Millwall FC 46 18 18 10 59:44 15 72

8

Brentford FC 46 19 15 12 64:50 14 72

9

Preston North End 46 19 15 12 57:46 11 72

10

Bristol City 46 18 17 11 63:51 12 71

11

Sheffield United 46 20 11 15 61:52 9 71

 

[wizadry]

How do you work that out? If we win our remaining games and Millwall lose to us and win the rest of theirs their goal difference could be better than ours. Similarly Boro could win all of theirs and we’d miss out.

Millwall play Boro and Boro play Derby so if all your permatations workout we should be in the playoffs, not mathematically I know but I think like NC that if we win all our games we’ll get in.

 

[Houston_Blade]

Millwall play Boro and Boro play Derby so if all your permatations workout we should be in the playoffs, not mathematically I know but I think like NC that if we win all our games we’ll get in.

Derby can lose to Boro and win the rest and still finish above us though. It's not as simple as if we win the lot we're in. We won't win the lot anyway, we'll get a max 10 points from 4 games. Based on recent form is could be a lot lower.

 

[wizadry]

Derby can lose to Boro and win the rest and still finish above us though. It's not as simple as if we win the lot we're in. We won't win the lot anyway, we'll get a max 10 points from 4 games. Based on recent form is could be a lot lower.

I accept that but I’m not saying it’s mathematical that if we win all our games we’re definitely in the playoffs and I don’t think NC is, what I’m saying is that I personally think that if we win all our games that will see us in the playoffs, just my prediction mate as I think the others will fuck up on more than one occasion.

The problem with the above being, as you quite rightly say is us making sure we win all our games first, I think we’ll do it.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

We win our 4 remaining games, we're in the play offs. This will go down to the last game of the season by the looks of it.

Didn't you say on another thread that you didn't think we would win another game all season?

 

[Nicolaus_Copernicus]

Didn't you say on another thread that you didn't think we would win another game all season?

Yes, I've had a change of heart after last night's result. I'm now convinced we'll make the play offs, unless we lose on Saturday, then i'm back being negative again.

 

[Houston_Blade]

I accept that but I’m not saying it’s mathematical that if we win all our games we’re definitely in the playoffs and I don’t think NC is, what I’m saying is that I personally think that if we win all our games that will see us in the playoffs, just my prediction mate as I think the others will fuck up on more than one occasion.

The problem with the above being, as you quite rightly say is us making sure we win all our games first, I think we’ll do it.

My binary mind is being tested today, we’ve had a thread about it being in our hands when it obviously isn’t and one confounding mathematics, I’m going to sit in a dark room and rock in the corner for a bit.

I hope you’re right on winning all the games, I really don’t see it happening, we are too inconsistent.

 

[Nicolaus_Copernicus]

Yes, I've had a change of heart after last night's result. I'm now convinced we'll make the play offs, unless we lose on Saturday, then i'm back being negative again.

I'll be honest, after the kick in the balls v Cardiff and the result at Barnsley, I didn't think we would have anything left in the tank (mentally & physically) so to speak. The 1st half performance last night was excellent. The 2nd half less so, but that was understandable and I thought we were going to replicate our mistakes v Cardiff. I appreciate i'd written us off (perhaps unfairly), but we're still in it by the skin of our teeth. Winning the next 4 is a big ask, but it's doable, and hopefully the footballing gods give us something. Saturday is going to be a reyt humdinger.

 

[Nicolaus_Copernicus]

I accept that but I’m not saying it’s mathematical that if we win all our games we’re definitely in the playoffs and I don’t think NC is, what I’m saying is that I personally think that if we win all our games that will see us in the playoffs, just my prediction mate as I think the others will fuck up on more than one occasion.

The problem with the above being, as you quite rightly say is us making sure we win all our games first, I think we’ll do it.

Although not mathematical guaranteeing them a place, in my humble opinion any team achieving at least 77 points will feature in the play offs (definitely 6th place, possibly even 5th). Obviously, if we win our last 4 remaining games we would achieve this tally. Rather than arguing the toss over it now, let's just see where a final tally of 77 points gets a team at season's end (whether it be us or not).

 

[Hamburg Blade]

I'll be honest, after the kick in the balls v Cardiff and the result at Barnsley, I didn't think we would have anything left in the tank (mentally & physically) so to speak. The 1st half performance last night was excellent. The 2nd half less so, but that was understandable and I thought we were going to replicate our mistakes v Cardiff. I appreciate i'd written us off (perhaps unfairly), but we're still in it by the skin of our teeth. Winning the next 4 is a big ask, but it's doable, and hopefully the footballing gods give us something. Saturday is going to be a reyt humdinger.

You've robbed me of my "told you so" post at the end of the season.

 

[Nicolaus_Copernicus]

You've robbed me of my "told you so" post at the end of the season.

If (and probably when) I get proven wrong, I expected it to be shouted at me in extra large font!

 

[Nicolaus_Copernicus]

for at least a week.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

If (and probably when) I get proven wrong, I expected it to be shouted at me in extra large font!

You can rely on me.

 

[FMBlade1]

Derby lost tonight, so they are now three points above us with a game in hand:

Burton A
Middlesbrough H
Cardiff H
Villa A
Barnsley H

Every little helps!

 

[1980]

Let me first state before being accused of getting carried away or overconfident, Millwall have done excellently to get to 6th and after so many games are there on merit. 3 points is 3 points regardless of who it comes against.

A lot has been made of their unbeaten run (P16 W11 D5) since losing to Norwich on January 1st so I just wanted to dissect some of the underlying details to seek causes for optimism for Saturday!

The unbeaten run is an unbeaten league run. They were knocked out of the FA Cup 1-0 by League One Rochdale who currently occupy one of the League One relegation slots.
The average current placing of the teams faced in this run is between 15th and 16th.
The average current placing of the teams beaten in this run is between 17th to 18th.

Bristol in 8th and Brentford in 10th, both home wins, are the exceptions in that all the other victories are against teams currently in the bottom half, placed 14th to 24th.
They have only faced 2 teams in the top 7 during this run and drew both, at home to Cardiff and Derby.

Their highest placed away victory was a 4-3 thriller in January against 14th placed Leeds. Leeds were down to 10 men after 37 minutes.
Their away record against other teams in the top half reads P9 W0 D5 L4. They still have to go to Boro and ourselves away to complete the away set.

Their remaining home games are against the teams currently lying 2nd and 4th. The highest placed team they have beaten at home is 7th. Their home record vs the rest of the top 6 is P3 W0 D3 L0.

Damn lies and statistics of course and I'm not going to tempt fate by drawing any conclusions or assumptions but some food for thought nonetheless.

UTB

That highlighted bit is the key bit in that. Football is not like other sports & I found it sad that we have adopted this American obsession with statistics - which are far more suited to their sports.

Another way of looking at it is this... we are in form, the last four fixtures are against Sheffield United (who we beat 3-1 at home), home to Fulham (who we lost to 1-0 to a dubious penalty), Middlesbrough away (who we beat 2-1 quite comfortably) and Aston Villa at home (who we drew 0-0 with, but really should have won). So, there's no reason to fear any of these sides at all in my opinion. You're trying to imply that we've somehow been very lucky to face a load of teams who simply rolled over for us.

 

[Champagneblade]

I'll be honest, after the kick in the balls v Cardiff and the result at Barnsley, I didn't think we would have anything left in the tank (mentally & physically) so to speak. The 1st half performance last night was excellent. The 2nd half less so, but that was understandable and I thought we were going to replicate our mistakes v Cardiff. I appreciate i'd written us off (perhaps unfairly), but we're still in it by the skin of our teeth. Winning the next 4 is a big ask, but it's doable, and hopefully the footballing gods give us something. Saturday is going to be a reyt humdinger.

Skin of our teeth indeed!

I think the point as well is that at least for the run in, whilst winning 4 straight is a big ask, there isn't a game we go into with any fear at all. The margin for error is just very low. It's not as if we play Wolves and Fulham who both were a class above.

Millwall - played poor at their gaff, but finished about 20 points above them last year and our home record stands quite well. Their away record doesn't against the higher ranked teams.
Birmingham - played them once and drew, but were by far the better team and should have won. If not for a worldy from them, probably would have.
Preston - beaten them once at home already and the last home game of the season will have added flavour.
Bristol - lost to them at home but that doesn't tell the story. We were a class apart, another worldy from them, we hit the woodwork, what must be a record 4 times and were it not for the sending off it looked like us winning was the only outcome. But for some slightly kamikaze substitutions we may still have got a point.

Plenty of reasons to be cheerful. Just slowly, slowly catchy monkey. Concentrate on Millwall and put pressure on all the others with an early win. Hopefully the extra 30 minutes in bed will mean we are not as asleep as we were vs Barnsley

 

[Patrick Suffaux]

Had a go at this. We finish 7th, going into the final day a point off Derby and Boro but draw at Bristol City and finish 3 points off.

Cardiff go up automatically by a point, Birmingham, Sunderland and Burton go down. Barnsley stay up on goal difference.

 

[wizadry]

That highlighted bit is the key bit in that. Football is not like other sports & I found it sad that we have adopted this American obsession with statistics - which are far more suited to their sports.

Another way of looking at it is this... we are in form, the last four fixtures are against Sheffield United (who we beat 3-1 at home), home to Fulham (who we lost to 1-0 to a dubious penalty), Middlesbrough away (who we beat 2-1 quite comfortably) and Aston Villa at home (who we drew 0-0 with, but really should have won). So, there's no reason to fear any of these sides at all in my opinion. You're trying to imply that we've somehow been very lucky to face a load of teams who simply rolled over for us.

He isn’t mate, he’s just trying to take the positives out of playing a team who are in great form.

We’ve won one on the bounce so you’ve fucked it.

 

[I should coco]

would be interested in what others come up with, being honest as I can I have it as:

1

Wolverhampton Wanderers 46 32 8 6 86:37 49 104
2

Cardiff City 45 27 9 9 70:37 33 90
3

Fulham FC 46 25 14 7 78:43 35 89
4

Aston Villa 46 24 12 10 71:42 29 84
5

Derby County 45 20 16 9 67:42 25 76
6

Sheffield United 46 21 10 15 63:53 10 73
7

Middlesbrough FC 46 20 12 14 63:44 19 72

I said we'd beat Millwall and Preston and draw at Brum and Brizzle.

As a minor bonus, i also have the dingles going down.

 

[Champagneblade]

That highlighted bit is the key bit in that. Football is not like other sports & I found it sad that we have adopted this American obsession with statistics - which are far more suited to their sports.

Another way of looking at it is this... we are in form, the last four fixtures are against Sheffield United (who we beat 3-1 at home), home to Fulham (who we lost to 1-0 to a dubious penalty), Middlesbrough away (who we beat 2-1 quite comfortably) and Aston Villa at home (who we drew 0-0 with, but really should have won). So, there's no reason to fear any of these sides at all in my opinion. You're trying to imply that we've somehow been very lucky to face a load of teams who simply rolled over for us.

Agree. This is a Sheffield United Board, of course I am looking for reasons to be optimistic for the Blades! Our home record, your away record, whether we get a good night's sleep, if you have hot water in your team's hotel - anything

I've been very careful not to imply teams rolled over for you. Anyone can beat anyone at this level. The results you have attained suggest that you have achieved a high level of consistency. The question is can you push that consistency to achieve against those in contention for promotion.

The challenge for us is that whilst we have beaten the likes of Derby, Wolves and Boro, and been the better side and not won vs Villa and Cardiff we are susceptible to the occasional stinking performance like against Barnsley, yourselves away, Preston away to name but three.

To put it very crassly, I'd say our best is better than your best given you haven't beaten a top 6 team and we have. I'd also say our worst is far worse than yours given the three matches where we didn't turn up and were abject in. But I'd also say your best happens more frequently than ours, especially on current form.

All in all it makes for an intriguing match. Though I can't imagine Lee Gregory will be trying much given he's a Blade

 

[DaveBassettsgoneonholiday]

If we are going to miss out on the play offs I'd like it to be by not less than 3 points because you know who'll start piping up if it isn't ........