The play-offs contenders run in:

[Eric Cartman]

Let me first state before being accused of getting carried away or overconfident, Millwall have done excellently to get to 6th and after so many games are there on merit. 3 points is 3 points regardless of who it comes against.

A lot has been made of their unbeaten run (P16 W11 D5) since losing to Norwich on January 1st so I just wanted to dissect some of the underlying details to seek causes for optimism for Saturday!

The unbeaten run is an unbeaten league run. They were knocked out of the FA Cup 1-0 by League One Rochdale who currently occupy one of the League One relegation slots.
The average current placing of the teams faced in this run is between 15th and 16th.
The average current placing of the teams beaten in this run is between 17th to 18th.

Bristol in 8th and Brentford in 10th, both home wins, are the exceptions in that all the other victories are against teams currently in the bottom half, placed 14th to 24th.
They have only faced 2 teams in the top 7 during this run and drew both, at home to Cardiff and Derby.

Their highest placed away victory was a 4-3 thriller in January against 14th placed Leeds. Leeds were down to 10 men after 37 minutes.
Their away record against other teams in the top half reads P9 W0 D5 L4. They still have to go to Boro and ourselves away to complete the away set.

Their remaining home games are against the teams currently lying 2nd and 4th. The highest placed team they have beaten at home is 7th. Their home record vs the rest of the top 6 is P3 W0 D3 L0.

Damn lies and statistics of course and I'm not going to tempt fate by drawing any conclusions or assumptions but some food for thought nonetheless.

UTB

So they’re both due a loss - and due a win away against a top half side?
Could be interesting on Saturday

 

[thehet]

Anyone know why Boro vs Millwall is a 17:30 Kick off on the final day??

 

[bladesman3]

You can have a crack at predicting here: http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/ would be interested in what others come up with, being honest as I can I have it as:

1

Wolverhampton Wanderers 46 32 8 6 87:36 51 104
2

Fulham FC 46 26 13 7 80:42 38 91
3

Cardiff City 46 27 10 9 69:39 30 91
4

Aston Villa 46 25 11 10 72:43 29 86
5

Derby County 46 20 16 10 66:44 22 76
6

Middlesbrough FC 46 22 10 14 66:45 21 76
7

Sheffield United 46 22 9 15 62:51 11 75

That would really piss me off totally...one/2 points,.when I think how many we have chucked away

 

[Silent Blade]

Anyone know why Boro vs Millwall is a 17:30 Kick off on the final day??

That is on 28th April. The final day is 6th May, Millwall home to Villa

 

[FMBlade1]

UPDATE:

5th Middlesbrough: Points 69 GD 18

Derby A
Millwall H
Ipswich A


6th Millwall: Points 69 GD 15

Fulham H
Middlesbrough A
Aston Villa H

7th Derby County: Points 68 GD 18

Middlesbrough H
Cardiff H
Villa A
Barnsley H

8th Preston: Points 66 GD 9

Norwich H
Sheffield United A
Burton H

9th Sheffield United: Points 66 GD 8

Birmingham A
Preston H
Bristol City A

---

If you can bear it you can have another go at predicting here:

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

Preston have a glorious chance with two easy home games, Middlesbrough are in the driving seat and Millwall have really it tough from now on. Derby have crashed as I predicted, which leaves two spots up for grabs.

Its not ideal but not over either, if we win our next three games we have a very good chance of making it though unlikely.

Least we have something to play for!

 

[andy m]

UPDATE:

5th Middlesbrough: Points 69 GD 18

Derby A
Millwall H
Ipswich A


6th Millwall: Points 69 GD 15

Fulham H
Middlesbrough A
Aston Villa H

7th Derby County: Points 68 GD 18

Middlesbrough H
Cardiff H
Villa A
Barnsley H

8th Preston: Points 66 GD 9

Norwich H
Sheffield United A
Burton H

9th Sheffield United: Points 65 GD 8

Birmingham A
Preston H
Bristol City A

Some fan. Can't even get our points total right

 

[robbiez666]

UPDATE:

5th Middlesbrough: Points 69 GD 18

Derby A
Millwall H
Ipswich A


6th Millwall: Points 69 GD 15

Fulham H
Middlesbrough A
Aston Villa H

7th Derby County: Points 68 GD 18

Middlesbrough H
Cardiff H
Villa A
Barnsley H

8th Preston: Points 66 GD 9

Norwich H
Sheffield United A
Burton H

9th Sheffield United: Points 66 GD 8

Birmingham A
Preston H
Bristol City A

---

If you can bear it you can have another go at predicting here:

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

Preston have a glorious chance with two easy home games, Middlesbrough are in the driving seat and Millwall have really it tough from now on. Derby have crashed as I predicted, which leaves two spots up for grabs.

Its not ideal but not over either, if we win our next three games we have a very good chance of making it though unlikely.

Least we have something to play for!

I wouldn't rule Brentford out. If they can scrape a draw tonight they have the easiest run-in:

QPR H
Barnsley A
Hull H

There's every chance of 9 points there.

 

[Shoes_On]

I still believe

 

[awblade]

Just done the predictor with us winning next 2 and drawing with bristol city. Finishing 73 points and in the playoffs. The matches between teams battling for the playoffs is going to make next few weeks very very interesting

 

[TomHeffernan]

I've just done the predictor and had us on 73 points and missing out to Derby in 6th on goal difference. I've got a feeling goal difference is really going to kill us

 

[Dellas Cowboys]

I wouldn't rule Brentford out. If they can scrape a draw tonight they have the easiest run-in:

QPR H
Barnsley A
Hull H

There's every chance of 9 points there.

Yes I think they have a better chance than many currently above them.

 

[Champagneblade]

7 points - wins vs Brum, Preston and draw vs Bristol may well be just enough.

If we consistently can’t pick up wins away at bottom teams we are not good enough to go up anyway.

I think the importance of not losing yesterday is understated.

It’s quite conceivable that Millwall can go unbeaten the rest of the season and not win again. In fact their form against the type of opposition they play would suggest just that. That leaves them on 72 points.

Win the next two and not losing vs Bristol could be enough.

Next game has to be must win!

 

[metalblade]

If we win every game I see us still one point behind Boro who have two away games they should win, any two wins for Boro will put them out of our reach due to goal difference anyway. I very much doubt we will make the play off's now it would take an incredible sequence of results for it to happen.

 

[Woodwardfan]

Remaining 4 fixtures each together with my predicitions:

Derby v Burton .Away. 3 points, Boro Home 1 point, Cardiff H. 0 Barnsley H. 3 - 68 plus 7 = 75 points total.
Boro v B.City H 3, Derby A. 1, Millwall H. 3, Ipswich A. 3 - 66 plus 10 = 76 points
B.City v Boro A. 0, Hull H. 3, Forest A. 3. Us .H. 1 - 65 + 7 = 72 points.
Preston QPR .A. 1, Norwich H. 3, Us A. 0, Burton.H. 3 - 63 + 7 =70 points
Brentford. Fulham A. 1, QPR. H. 3, Barnsley A. 3, Hull H. 3 - 10 + 64= 74 points.
Millwall. Us A. 0, Fulham /H. 1, Boro A. 0, Villa H. 0.- 68 +1 = 69 points.
US v Millwall.H. 3, Brum A. 3, Preston H. 3, B.City A. 1 - 10 + 65 = 75 points.

The bad news is we miss out on Goal difference as ours is awful.

The good news is my record on Predictions this season is 38% correct

Result today compared with my forecasts above:

Derby minus 3 therefore now forecast at 72 points; Boro correct so 76 points ; BCity correct so 72 points; Preston plus 2 so 72 pointsl Brentford correct so 74 points, Millwall plus 1 so 70 points, US minus 2 so 73 points.

So it's Boro and Brentford with us in 7th place just missing out.

Above from another thread. How the picture changes day by day!!

Looking on here above, the consistent conclusion is us in 7th just missing out

 

[FMBlade1]

Millwall lost tonight so win tomorrow and we draw level with an easier run in.....






Arghh I can't take the hope and heartbreak again ahahahhahaha

 

[blade.i.am]

It's the goal difference that kills me