Southampton is a must win

[Deadbat]

2PPG is needed. I believe we can do it. Enough other teams have been showing that they can’t sustain that.

We’ll see. As I said, I put in the effort to sit down and work out everyone’s 10-game form and project that over the rest of the season, precisely because of the traffic between us and 6th, to see where it landed. I’m going to give more weight to that than people’s personal opinion. I think that’s fair, and certainly inline with my style.

Have a nice evening. Or a shit one. Whichever makes you happiest.

Ok, I'll do some projections to back up my personal opinion.

Firstly, why did you pick just the last 10 games? A cynic would suggest it skews it in our favour of making it, as thats when our good run started?

I think a better and more accurate way to predict or see where we might end up, would be to look at the last 20 games ppg/form. Gives a longer sample size and also fits with the fact we have exactly 20 games left.

So if we replicate what we did over last 20, with next 20, where might we be. Course we could get more but could get less points. This also removes the dire Selles games.

I have got us averaging 1.6 over this time. That would put us on 64. Nearly every season last 10 years - last one was a rare exception as only 68- you need 70+ for the playoffs, so we'd still be short.

Being on 32 points now, we are going to have to get 38-40 pts from the last 20 games, averaging 2 points per game. Essentially it's 11 or 12 wins and 5 or 6 draws. from 20 games. We can basically only afford to lose 3 games, maybe 4. There are 14 teams above us from 3rd to 16th. This is a lot of teams to overtake.

If we lose 2 out of next 3 which sadly I think may happen due to some tough games (can see a point or win at Soton but not sure we get anything from two after that) then we would have to only lose 1 out of final 17.

Whichever way you square it, it's very unlikely rarher than more than possible, based on what we have already done this season.

 

[Cappy]

Ok, I'll do some projections to back up my personal opinion.

Firstly, why did you pick just the last 10 games? A cynic would suggest it skews it in our favour of making it, as thats when our good run started?

I think a better and more accurate way to predict or see where we might end up, would be to look at the last 20 games ppg/form. Gives a longer sample size and also fits with the fact we have exactly 20 games left.

So if we replicate what we did over last 20, with next 20, where might we be. Course we could get more but could get less points. This also removes the dire Selles games.

I have got us averaging 1.6 over this time. That would put us on 64. Nearly every season last 10 years - last one was a rare exception as only 68- you need 70+ for the playoffs, so we'd still be short.

Being on 32 points now, we are going to have to get 38-40 pts from the last 20 games, averaging 2 points per game. Essentially it's 11 or 12 wins and 5 or 6 draws. from 20 games. We can basically only afford to lose 3 games, maybe 4. There are 14 teams above us from 3rd to 16th. This is a lot of teams to overtake.

If we lose 2 out of next 3 which sadly I think may happen due to some tough games (can see a point or win at Soton but not sure we get anything from two after that) then we would have to only lose 1 out of final 17.

Whichever way you square it, it's very unlikely rarher than more than possible, based on what we have already done this season.

We are very different people Deadbat. You’re a self-confessed negative person. On topics such as these we are very unlikely to ever agree. So I will leave it just answering your question,,,

I chose 10 games for a few reasons. Firstly it is a very commonly provided longer form snapshot used by most websites showing form tables. They use 5/6/10 most commonly.

Second, I felt it did indeed better represent the “new” 25/26 sheff United. We were playing more like a Chris Wilder side in that period than we were before. It also included the stupid losses to wba and Wrexham. A cynic could say you want to include Wilder’s early games as it helps back up your negative outlook

By the way, if I’d chosen 11 instead of 10, we’d have been clear at the top of the ppg table instead of joint top. But 10 is a common standard. Sometimes, going forward, the 10 game form table (extrapolated over the season) may not paint a great picture, but at that moment it did, and made me realise that those saying we can’t make it probably hadn’t actually looked into it objectively, and instead were focusing on two recent daft losses.

As mentioned elsewhere, I continue to be energized by positivity as opposed to energized by negativity. I find it a great way to live. We can’t individually influence the outcome for sheff utd, but that mindset doesn’t half have a great impact on your life and of those around you.

Onwards into a new week of positive thinking

 

[Frank the tank]

 

[mattbianco1]

I think a better and more accurate way to predict or see where we might end up, would be to look at the last 20 games ppg/form. Gives a longer sample size and also fits with the fact we have exactly 20 games left.

So if we replicate what we did over last 20, with next 20, where might we be.

Well, the last 20 games, we are still a top 6 team:


If all the teams in that screenshot gained the same points haul over the last 20 the league would finish like this:

1- Coventry 97
2- Ipswich 85
3- Middlesbrough 81
4- Millwall 81
5- Hull 80
6- Watford 77
7- Preston 74
8- Wrexham72
9- Derby 70
10- Stoke 69
11- Bristol City 68
12- QPR 67
13- Blades 64
14- Southampton 59

So we would gain 4 places and be 10points off the POs. Over 20 games we are at 1.6 PPG.
As Cappy has suggested though, the last 10 games (current form), we are 1.9PPG. Carry that on and we finish on 70pts.

We also still have to play 14 of the 16 teams above us.

 

[Broomhall Blade]

Fair play for doing the research.

I'd offer that it's likely that at least one or two other teams will go on a run similar to our recent one and unlikely a side, with our defensive limitations, will be able to sustain it...
but until it's mathematically impossible I hope Wilder & the lads continue to go for it, so no issues from me Cappy . Enjoy your posts.

The top three will stay there Coventry, Middlesbrough and Ipswich.
Hull, Millwall and Preston are all win one, draw one lose one teams.
I can't see anybody below them going on a run except us possibly.
Saturday's lose was a kick in the balls but it was more down too a Twat than us playing badly, also losing two players for 3 games is not good, but we didn't really lose any ground on 6 placed Preston 11 points behind with a game in hand beat Oxford and its 8.
All still too play for in my view hopefully they don't scale back the January recruitment.
Oh and no way on earth will be in a relegation scrap.
I know the S6 mob are the most delusional fan base on the planet but we must be the most pessimistic.

 

[Balham]

Well, the last 20 games, we are still a top 6 team:
View attachment 229285

If all the teams in that screenshot gained the same points haul over the last 20 the league would finish like this:

1- Coventry 97
2- Ipswich 85
3- Middlesbrough 81
4- Millwall 81
5- Hull 80
6- Watford 77
7- Preston 74
8- Wrexham72
9- Derby 70
10- Stoke 69
11- Bristol City 68
12- QPR 67
13- Blades 64
14- Southampton 59

So we would gain 4 places and be 10points off the POs. Over 20 games we are at 1.6 PPG.
As Cappy has suggested though, the last 10 games (current form), we are 1.9PPG. Carry that on and we finish on 70pts.

We also still have to play 14 of the 16 teams above us.

I know that a lot on here don't trust the stats but there's a clear shift after the Southampton home game. Before then, we were level at best on the xGs in each match. After that, there are two (Coventry and West Brom) where we deserved to lose.

The first column is actual result; the first xR is based on rounded xGs: taking the game at home to QPR. 1.3 rounds to 1; 0.5 rounds to 1 so 1-1 is the statistical result. The second is based on the rounded difference; again, taking the QPR match, 1.3-0.5 = 0.8 which rounds to +1, statistically a match we should have won. I know that this doesn't take into account the match itself: Leicester away a prime example as we were 2-0 up after 7 minutes so didn't need to force the issue, resulting in us creating fewer chances and a desperate opposition creating more but overall it's a good indicator of where we are.



The outcome in terms of the points we should have accrued is pretty similar:


My gut instinct is that if we can keep Bamford fit and make an astute signing or two, we can go on a proper charge for the last 20 matches.

 

[Jan Age]

We won’t go down we won’t go up. Owners should already be planning for the end of season….

Talking to new coaches, and targeting players within budget based on that.

They should also be talking to wilder about what his new role will look like.

 

[Champagneblade]

2PPG is needed. I believe we can do it. Enough other teams have been showing that they can’t sustain that.

We’ll see. As I said, I put in the effort to sit down and work out everyone’s 10-game form and project that over the rest of the season, precisely because of the traffic between us and 6th, to see where it landed. I’m going to give more weight to that than people’s personal opinion. I think that’s fair, and certainly inline with my style.

Have a nice evening. Or a shit one. Whichever makes you happiest.

I suppose the interesting thing would be to look at the projection and see how that has changed with the actual results?

I also think we can make it but dropping points, regardless of circumstances away at Charlton means we have to pull a couple of biggies out of the bag.

 

[mattbianco1]

Here are the projections if all teams continue their 20 game form, and also their 10 game form. We miss out on both, but certainly both look much more acceptable finishes.

 

[AdamSufc1997]

Mid table this season. Probably explains why we only signed one player so far. No one will come here unless they just want game time .

 

[mattbianco1]

Mid table this season. Probably explains why we only signed one player so far. No one will come here unless they just want game time .

Well that theory is fully flawed.

This time last season we were in the top 2 and hadn't signed any players in January yet.

20th Jan - Brereton-Diaz
23rd Jan - Cannon
27th Jan - Choudhury
29th Jan - Clarke
3rd Feb - Holding

 

[Uganda Blade]

To make playoffs, I think it’s a must win, per my points, plus encouraging the board to continue with whatever their most optimistic of transfer plans is for January

Your comment that ‘we ain’t making playoffs’ is just your usual negatively-tinged view on things. It’s still more than possible at this stage. I made a data-driven post recently that showed if everyone in the league completed the rest of the season continuing their last 10 form, we finished in 6th. So, I’m not buying into your gloomy outlook.

Save me a bit of time, please Cappy: can you point me at the post you refer to?
Thanks.

 

[Roygbiv]

I think we're all struggling to accept that we're in the middle of a nothing season because it's the first time in about 20 years where its happened. Don't blame people for looking up and trying to add more excitement to the games but top 10 is a more realistic aim.

It's a big opportunity missed because at least 2 of the play off teams will be the worst in living memory but it's our own fault by having zero plan in the summer beyond sacking Wilder

 

[UddersBlade]

Spot on - that COH - royally screwed up by sacking Wilder last summer. This is a very weak top end Championship this season - next season will be a lot harder with Wolves, Burnley & West Ham coming down.

 

[Cappy]

Save me a bit of time, please Cappy: can you point me at the post you refer to?
Thanks.

Oh yeah so I will do the legwork for you. Don’t you worry mate. You sit back and enjoy your pint

Post in thread '14pts away from autos, 11 pts away from play-offs.'
https://www.s24su.com/forum/threads...1-pts-away-from-play-offs.105704/post-6147502

 

[Bladesman]

Champions League is still possible though?

 

[Uganda Blade]

Thank you very much you funny fucker . The legwork is appreciated.
FWIW we've had an Internet blackout the past five days (still no social media or messaging apps), so I'm playing catchup. Either that or I'm a lazy twat.

 

[joe casey]

We won’t go down we won’t go up. Owners should already be planning for the end of season….

Talking to new coaches, and targeting players within budget based on that.

They should also be talking to wilder about what his new role will look like.

The only person I'd trust to talk to new coaches/managers would be Wilder himself - the owners clearly haven't got a clue as proved in the summer.

 

[71Blade]

I think we're all struggling to accept that we're in the middle of a nothing season because it's the first time in about 20 years where its happened. Don't blame people for looking up and trying to add more excitement to the games but top 10 is a more realistic aim.

It's a big opportunity missed because at least 2 of the play off teams will be the worst in living memory but it's our own fault by having zero plan in the summer beyond sacking Wilder

The damage done highlights no quick fix id love an honest chat with Chris regards the mess he picked up also how many players are wasted and who he would bomb out aside of the two loan returns. Chong Ogbene to name 2, its a shit show without the injuries and ill discipline this just adds a further level of woe. Id take top 10 now

 

[ben1987]

Next Few get a bit harder now unless Tanganags appeal is successful.

We might end up with McGuiness and Mee as a back two again for a few games depending on Bindon

 

[Bladedog]

Next Few get a bit harder now unless Tanganags appeal is successful.

We might end up with McGuiness and Mee as a back two again for a few games depending on Bindon

And don't forget the three game week..so there'll be plenty of chopping and changing ..so brooks and seriki likely to be benched for less effective players.