I had a chat with Gemini and we're not making the playoffs.

[ATL Recs]

Cappy's graphs and calculations on the other thread suggest the playoffs are possible if we continue our form over the past few games.

Let’s hope we are playing against 10 most weeks and S6 level then

 

[ChipButtyBlade]

Castor n Pollux thread.

 

[WestYorksBlade]

Gemini can swivel on it

 

[HVR]

Can't really know for sure, but I feel that the Championship is more evenly spread - in terms of points - this season than the last. So where the top 6 had more points, and the bottom 6 had less, this season seems a lot closer regarding the points difference, such as between 5th and 19th place - 15 points last season - 10 points this season.

Perhaps it's because Norwich, Southampton and Sheffield United got off to such a poor start, and Sheffield Wednesday have only won one game. We are also closer at 18th than a team in our position last season.

What is the same though, is is the number of teams. There's 12 teams between 5th and 18th - just like last season, and that is the hardest task - overtaking those 12 teams. However, if we discount us, and the points we gave away, and perhaps those in the Play Offs have gained an advantage by poor starts by the better teams, and they crumble as the season goes on. So, it's not a case of a poor team trying to catch up up with better ones, it's more like can we get a run together - taking points off those above us and get into the play offs.

Although to add - Coventry last season after 22 games were in 17th on 24pts and finished in 5th on 69pts.

I think it's possible.

 

[scouseblade]

I read this as 'I had a chat with a gemini'. As a Gemini hi

 

[SharpAsAblade]

That’s it then season wasted. Nowt to salvage, I mean if Gemini has said we can’t get playoffs it must be impossible.

 

[Ned the Donkey]

I cut out my own intestines examine and to interpret them for a sign.

I am now on my way to A&E.

I cut up a few tea bags and read the tea leaves. I am also on the way to A&E after being hit over the head with a rolling pin by the Mrs for making a mess in the kitchen.

 

[HVR]

We almost certainly wouldn't need 74 or 75 points to make the play offs. In the last 6 seasons - since Covid, when the football league structure shifted - the team finishing 7th has received 70, 70, 70, 68, 70 and 66 points. Even in the 10 seasons before that, the mean average was only 71.8 points with one major outlier: 2015, when Wolves finished outside the play offs on 78 points.

Millwall currently occupy the final play off spot on 35 points (and a negative goal difference!). That's pretty much par for the course in the post Covid years and extrapolates to 73 points over the course of the season. However, in three of the past four seasons, the team finishing 6th had a worse points per game than the team in 6th at Christmas.

Long story short: if we can get to 72 points - taking 46 points from our last 24 matches - I'd be amazed if we didn't finish in the top 6. Our current 6- and 8-match form put us well on course to do that so really it's over to the players and coaching staff to keep the momentum. We've a far deeper squad than most of the sides between us and the very top of the division which helps too.

I think that is a major point to factor in. Can Hull City, Preston, Millwall, QPR, Stoke and Bristol (4th-9th currently) maintain their initial good start for the rest of the season? Even Coventry, Middlesbrough and Ipswich - it gets very tense and tough in the last 15 games. I definitively think there's at least 2 spots available in the Play Offs.

That 6- and 8-match form is what we should be aiming for (I know it's easy to say on a forum - win more games!) But if we could play like we have been doing - press, attacking, full on - and win, then blow up on the odd match and lose - it's better than draw, win, draw win keep it safe. If we are going to mount a challenge, we should expect one or two lacklustre performances within that winning period, as the players get tired.

Plus, we may have a few extra additions in January - on our game, we are the best team in the Championship.