Southampton is a must win

[wf9-Danny]

Ok, I'll do some projections to back up my personal opinion.

Firstly, why did you pick just the last 10 games? A cynic would suggest it skews it in our favour of making it, as thats when our good run started?

I think a better and more accurate way to predict or see where we might end up, would be to look at the last 20 games ppg/form. Gives a longer sample size and also fits with the fact we have exactly 20 games left.

So if we replicate what we did over last 20, with next 20, where might we be. Course we could get more but could get less points. This also removes the dire Selles games.

I have got us averaging 1.6 over this time. That would put us on 64. Nearly every season last 10 years - last one was a rare exception as only 68- you need 70+ for the playoffs, so we'd still be short.

Being on 32 points now, we are going to have to get 38-40 pts from the last 20 games, averaging 2 points per game. Essentially it's 11 or 12 wins and 5 or 6 draws. from 20 games. We can basically only afford to lose 3 games, maybe 4. There are 14 teams above us from 3rd to 16th. This is a lot of teams to overtake.

This is easily doable, this league is rubbish.

We can and will do this.

 

[mattbianco1]

We’ve had some great results over the past month or so, but we’ve not shown the level of consistency to make the push we’d need to achieve anything this season

That's wrong. We are showing the consistency, we are just showing it too late.

We are in the top 6 for Form over the last 5, 10 & 20 games.

 

[Bladesman]

This is easily doable, this league is rubbish.

We can and will do this.

I'd be a smidge more optimistic if the Tanganga's appeal had been successful.

 

[jt64]

That's wrong. We are showing the consistency, we are just showing it too late.

We are in the top 6 for Form over the last 5, 10 & 20 games.

Form tables over the first two sample sizes you list are, unless adjusted for strength of schedule, completely irrelevant

 

[mattbianco1]

Form tables over the first two sample sizes you list are, unless adjusted for strength of schedule, completely irrelevant

We might aswell have lost them then if they don't matter 🫩

 

[jt64]

We might aswell have lost them then if they don't matter 🫩

My point is that if you are looking at a five game period where you have played Cov, Ipswich, Boro, Stoke and Brizzle and you are towards the bottom of the form table there is probably a reason for it and it is nothing to do with how you played. Same with the inverse and your opponents were the Pigs, Oxford, Norwich, Charlton and Swansea.

An accurate form table would take the points gained and compare it to the points projected by the market for each game at kick off but we can't have nice things

 

[KMC-1889]

I love how confident everyone is that we aren’t going down despite losing to some absolutely shite teams.

That 10 game run might be as good as it gets this season, if we go back to the form before that we’re definitely in the relegation run off.

5 points above the drop and 11 away from playoffs. Absolute delusion of Wendy levels to think we’re troubling top 6.

 

[radio]

I've been quite impressed how many of you are still looking at a Top 6 ending to the season , , I am usually more optimistic than most but not so this season, I was confident after Wembley v Sunderland that we would win The League , then came Summer I was worried with the managerial change , just didn't make sense , really pleased when Wilder came back but starting the season on P5 L5 was just staggeringly bad and have feared relegation ever since , to the extent that I still think that if Wilder keeps us up it will be a big achievement , granted, I took have looked at how many points we are off 6th (always hoping) but an indication of how bad things were is that we have been on a really good run and played good football ,scoring goals but are still only 5 points clear of a relegation position ,, with 3 games a week , one bad week could really see us back in real trouble ,, here's hoping we have a few good fortnights between now and May ,, so I can celebrate with you optimistic Blades but you should also join my celebration when we reach a position where it no longer mathematical possible to go down

 

[Ndiayewillalwaysloveyou]

I love how confident everyone is that we aren’t going down despite losing to some absolutely shite teams.

That 10 game run might be as good as it gets this season, if we go back to the form before that we’re definitely in the relegation run off.

5 points above the drop and 11 away from playoffs. Absolute delusion of Wendy levels to think we’re troubling top 6.

Game in hand and we absolutely beat Charlton on Saturday with 11 or 10 men. That's possibly 6 more points.

We looked quality until the sending offs. (Apart from the finishing)

 

[Ndiayewillalwaysloveyou]

Not in terms of starting but be interesting which 4 players may have to come into the squad Wednesday?

McCallum/Shackleton
Bindon/Zatterstrom
Tanganga/McGuiness
Soumare/Ogbene

Also could include Chong or One.

 

[CornwallBlade]

I love how confident everyone is that we aren’t going down despite losing to some absolutely shite teams.

That 10 game run might be as good as it gets this season, if we go back to the form before that we’re definitely in the relegation run off.

5 points above the drop and 11 away from playoffs. Absolute delusion of Wendy levels to think we’re troubling top 6.

Yes but I feel that we are playing a very different kind of football now compared to prior to the last 10. I’m sure someone can confirm this to be the case with xg stats etc. - or that I’m talking bollocks….

 

[BarcaBlade]

My main argument for making the play offs is simply that it's an obvious choice for the football gods to have some fun at our expense.

I'm sure they've got some grand season finale all worked out.

 

[Willglynning]

That's wrong. We are showing the consistency, we are just showing it too late.

We are in the top 6 for Form over the last 5, 10 & 20 games.

I stand by what I said, we are not showing the level of consistency that we’d need to mount a playoff push at this stage of the season for where we are in the table.

Whilst we might have just scraped into top 6 form for the past 5; two of the teams that we’d need to overtake have been in better form than us (and both Wrexham and Watford are just 3 and 2 points off the playoffs vs our 11 point gap).

Sure, we’re 2nd in form over 10 games, but in reality we’re only one point closer to 6th now than we were ten games ago.

We’ve got 11 points to make up- which could even be 12 by the time we play tomorrow.

I just don’t see it happening- especially given the current suspensions/injuries we have going into a pretty horrible run of fixtures and our recurring habit of being absolutely woeful every few games.

 

[Deadbat]

It was about your personality, not character and, hey, I’m just agreeing with your own self-analysis. You should be pleased.

What was this bit, by the way? I think you’re forgetting what you said


And no, Deadbat, I will decide how I respond. School’s out.

As will I, if I disagree with your post on a forum, which you seem to have taken great umbrage with. People will not always agree. You don't need to slander people's personality or character when disagreeing. My picture was in response to Silent but you omitted to mention his picture. Wonder why?

 

[Cappy]

As will I, if I disagree with your post on a forum, which you seem to have taken great umbrage with. People will not always agree. You don't need to slander people's personality or character when disagreeing. My picture was in response to Silent but you omitted to mention his picture. Wonder why?

Your condescending and patronising tones are very strong in many of your posts on this forum. I enjoy standing up to such …. I won’t say the word. Perhaps you’re not self aware, or more likely you’re just trying to gaslight, but sadly for you we aren’t all stupid.

Slander? you call yourself negative, then take objection to others calling you negative. Again, do you just not understand the word, or are you trying to gaslight?

Blocked. I’ve little time for clowns like you, and you’ve had more than enough.

 

[Willglynning]

Your condescending and patronising tones are very strong in many of your posts on this forum. I enjoy standing up to such …. I won’t say the word. Perhaps you’re not self aware, or more likely you’re just trying to gaslight, but sadly for you we aren’t all stupid.

Slander? you call yourself negative, then take objection to others calling you negative. Again, do you just not understand the word, or are you trying to gaslight?

Blocked. I’ve little time for clowns like you, and you’ve had more than enough.

Whether it was your initial intention or not, this has now completely devolved into an attack on how you’re perceiving his character.

It’s a bit of an OTT reaction to someone having a different opinion to you.

 

[Cappy]

Whether it was your initial intention or not, this has now completely devolved into an attack on how you’re perceiving his character.

It’s a bit of an OTT reaction to someone having a different opinion to you.

Personality, not character. They’re different. Don’t let him gaslight you.

It was never about his opinion. My day to day every day is dealing with differing opinions in critical matters. I love that world to be honest. But look at the first few lines of his first reply. His is the type of negativity that sucks the energy out of a conversation the moment he joins it. I find it tiresome. And I just needed to call it out.

And his gaslighting was pathetic and desperate. I tried to be specific in my OP and indeed the thread I referenced.

His condescending and patronising runs thick in a lot of his content in this forum when he is challenged. He won’t get away with it with me.

 

[KMC-1889]

Game in hand and we absolutely beat Charlton on Saturday with 11 or 10 men. That's possibly 6 more points.

We looked quality until the sending offs. (Apart from the finishing)

And if my auntie has wheels she’d be a bicycle.

We didn’t beat Charlton. They’ve taken six points from us this season. We got turned over by Wrexham and the worst West Brom team for years.

We’re more likely to lose more than we win for the rest of the season, we should be focusing on maintaining the gap from the drop and beating the teams around us.

 

[54yrblade]

I thought we'd finish 10 - 16th at the start of the season.

Nothing I've seen so far changes that.

We're in danger right now and not clear of the drop. That's the priority, avoid the bottom 3.

I dread to think of us in the play offs again and similarly of us somehow getting to the PL with our current set up and decision makers.

 

[ChipButtyBlade]

3-2 or 2-3 one way or the other.

 

[CPB]

We could do with Bindon being fit to start with. Went off with illness on Sat. You'd think he would be OK by now.
Otherwise it will be McGuinness won't it? Although he wasn't in the squad at all on Saturday.

Can't see Jairo playing. Soumare is out.

Will we see a Peck - Arblaster start?
You could chuck T.Davies in, Hamer in the middle or even Burrows.

I reckon it will be:

Cooper,
Seriki, Bindon, Mee, McCallum
Brooks, Peck, Arblaster, O'Hare/Hamer
Bamford, Cannon

Could see him starting Ing's for the old club side of things but Bamford and Cannon are looking like the best bet up front right now. Chance Bamford is rested I suppose.

 

[raul]

Personality, not character. They’re different. Don’t let him gaslight you.

It was never about his opinion. My day to day every day is dealing with differing opinions in critical matters. I love that world to be honest. But look at the first few lines of his first reply. His is the type of negativity that sucks the energy out of a conversation the moment he joins it. I find it tiresome. And I just needed to call it out.

And his gaslighting was pathetic and desperate. I tried to be specific in my OP and indeed the thread I referenced.

His condescending and patronising runs thick in a lot of his content in this forum when he is challenged. He won’t get away with it with me.

He will now you've put him on ignore Champ.

 

[Ndiayewillalwaysloveyou]

And if my auntie has wheels she’d be a bicycle.

We didn’t beat Charlton. They’ve taken six points from us this season. We got turned over by Wrexham and the worst West Brom team for years.

We’re more likely to lose more than we win for the rest of the season, we should be focusing on maintaining the gap from the drop and beating the teams around us.

Before the Oxford game (called off) we'd just won 3 outta 4 including easy wins again Birmingham and Leicester and a decent win at Stoke.

My point was that things were looking up before a match postponement and a match with 9 men...