Mcburnie - Burnley

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Mouth of the South said:
If you can think of a better option DB then fair enough but the $1m question is who?
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Depends on the sale value to be honest.

A “target” striker would be the most obvious choice and might not come at great cost.

Jutkovic (sp) has always been good at that.

The lad at Sunderland was impressive the other night.

There would be a good few interesting options out there.

While McB has improved this last 2 games, the particularly low performance bar that he has climbed out of has completely frazzled the minds of those who regard yesterday as “superb”. Or words to that effect. It simply was not and this was qualified by the complete lack of “quality” he demonstrated in front of goal.

Slow to react. Slow to move his feet. Not great traits for a goal scorer where that first 2 yards are vital and generally make the difference !

A move could very well suit all parties. But we must have a replacement as I completely agree with you that we would be very short up there.

UTB
 

Mouth of the South said:
Really - a 34 year old who hasn't played since last season?

Tbh - I wouldn't have been again him being added to the ranks as I still feel Utd are a striker short, but not at the expense of McB surely
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For some reason, Grabban has a bit of a fan club on here. He's 35 during the season.... ridiculous.
 
It would be poor business to sell McBurnie right now. He’s said himself it’s the first time he’s felt fit in the past 2 years, and clearly looks that way with his performance on Saturday too

What will WBA offer any way? £2m? £3m? Is it really worth us being short in the striker dept and potentially missing out on promotion for a relative pittance?
 
Mouth of the South said:
Really - a 34 year old who hasn't played since last season?

Tbh - I wouldn't have been again him being added to the ranks as I still feel Utd are a striker short, but not at the expense of McB surely
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But McBurnie isn't a striker. I'd back Grabbon to score 10 x McB. He's scored the grand total of 7 in 3 years. I'd be happy to see him gone.
 
McBurnie under Heckingbottom is playing a totally different role to the one he played under Wilder, and that's reflected in the fact that he's getting into scoring positions.

Avert your eyes now if you think data analysis is a crime against the sport of football:

McBurnie's xG in his first season with us was 8 from 2100 minutes: he scored 6 goals
McBurnie's xG in our relegation season was 3.5 from 1300 minutes played: he scored 1 goal

McBurnie's xG this season is 1.85 from 130 minutes played. So it's already halfway to his total from the relegation season, in 10% of the minutes played.

It's just a way of expressing through numbers what most people could see with their eyes: under Wilder he was played as a target man, often coming deep to link play, rarely getting into the box, almost never looking like a goal threat. Now he's the focal point, getting into the box, playing between the goalposts (as Hecky likes to say), making good runs. Only poor finishing, back luck, and good goalkeeping has prevented him from scoring.

I think he deserves a run of games to see if he can turn the goal threat into actual goals. If he plays another 5-8 games and is getting into good positions but is still missing his chances, then yeah, maybe his finishing is just never going to be good enough at this level.

That's a separate consideration from the idea of selling him to a promotion rival, which is just daft on the face of it.
 
I think the most important question is, would Mcb likely want to sign a new contract once his current one runs out.

I think the answer is more leaning towards no than yes.

So if we can get something for him, (obviously will be at a loss regardless ) then we should definitely consider it.

Think $9 mill and above with addons may just about do it.
 
I was about to say I'd go for Ellis Sims at Sunderland. But have just seen he's on loan from Everton. A similar player is needed though. Pace, power and hold up.
 
dc_blade said:
McBurnie under Heckingbottom is playing a totally different role to the one he played under Wilder, and that's reflected in the fact that he's getting into scoring positions.

Avert your eyes now if you think data analysis is a crime against the sport of football:

McBurnie's xG in his first season with us was 8 from 2100 minutes: he scored 6 goals
McBurnie's xG in our relegation season was 3.5 from 1300 minutes played: he scored 1 goal

McBurnie's xG this season is 1.85 from 130 minutes played. So it's already halfway to his total from the relegation season, in 10% of the minutes played.

It's just a way of expressing through numbers what most people could see with their eyes: under Wilder he was played as a target man, often coming deep to link play, rarely getting into the box, almost never looking like a goal threat. Now he's the focal point, getting into the box, playing between the goalposts (as Hecky likes to say), making good runs. Only poor finishing, back luck, and good goalkeeping has prevented him from scoring.

I think he deserves a run of games to see if he can turn the goal threat into actual goals. If he plays another 5-8 games and is getting into good positions but is still missing his chances, then yeah, maybe his finishing is just never going to be good enough at this level.

That's a separate consideration from the idea of selling him to a promotion rival, which is just daft on the face of it.
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2B48A346-5FEB-4328-9545-30969526D303.jpeg
 
dc_blade said:
McBurnie under Heckingbottom is playing a totally different role to the one he played under Wilder, and that's reflected in the fact that he's getting into scoring positions.

Avert your eyes now if you think data analysis is a crime against the sport of football:

McBurnie's xG in his first season with us was 8 from 2100 minutes: he scored 6 goals
McBurnie's xG in our relegation season was 3.5 from 1300 minutes played: he scored 1 goal

McBurnie's xG this season is 1.85 from 130 minutes played. So it's already halfway to his total from the relegation season, in 10% of the minutes played.

It's just a way of expressing through numbers what most people could see with their eyes: under Wilder he was played as a target man, often coming deep to link play, rarely getting into the box, almost never looking like a goal threat. Now he's the focal point, getting into the box, playing between the goalposts (as Hecky likes to say), making good runs. Only poor finishing, back luck, and good goalkeeping has prevented him from scoring.

I think he deserves a run of games to see if he can turn the goal threat into actual goals. If he plays another 5-8 games and is getting into good positions but is still missing his chances, then yeah, maybe his finishing is just never going to be good enough at this level.

That's a separate consideration from the idea of selling him to a promotion rival, which is just daft on the face of it.
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XG works on the basis of what the average striker would achieve.

The above analysis confirms also that whilst Hecky is getting him into the right areas more often, it's also showing that McBurnie's conversion rate is significantly lower than the average.

I've not been in the Grabban fan club but I am coming around to some logic.

I don't see how odd it seems when you lay this equation out based on one season given both players could apparently leave in a year if you offered a one year deal to Grabban:

Would you consider swapping player A, on 28k per week, who scored zero league goals in 28 games last season plus 5-10m cash in your favour for player B, to be paid 28k per week, who scored 12 league goals in 32 matches last season?

McBurnie has scored 2 goals in 58 appearances in the last 3 years. Grabban has scored 39 in 108. So not only has he got a far superior goal record, despite his age, he's also been available far more.

I'm not suggesting there aren't mutliple factors like will McBurnie extend instead of walking for free i.e. do we have a year's option, is he on the cusp of something after Saturday etc.

But there is a conversation to be had and it's not outlandish to weigh up the above.
 

Champagneblade said:
XG works on the basis of what the average striker would achieve.

The above analysis confirms also that whilst Hecky is getting him into the right areas more often, it's also showing that McBurnie's conversion rate is significantly lower than the average.

I've not been in the Grabban fan club but I am coming around to some logic.

I don't see how odd it seems when you lay this equation out based on one season given both players could apparently leave in a year if you offered a one year deal to Grabban:

Would you consider swapping player A, on 28k per week, who scored zero league goals in 28 games last season plus 5-10m cash in your favour for player B, to be paid 28k per week, who scored 12 league goals in 32 matches last season?

McBurnie has scored 2 goals in 58 appearances in the last 3 years. Grabban has scored 39 in 108. So not only has he got a far superior goal record, despite his age, he's also been available far more.

I'm not suggesting there aren't mutliple factors like will McBurnie extend instead of walking for free i.e. do we have a year's option, is he on the cusp of something after Saturday etc.

But there is a conversation to be had and it's not outlandish to weigh up the above.
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Yeah, I think my post sort of concluded with the question of his finishing. I'd want to see some sign of him starting to take some of these chances in the next half-dozen or so games to feel confident that his new role in the team was going to lead to a decent goal return. I don't think underperforming his xG this season so far is a big deal because it's a small sample size. But he underperformed it in both of the PL seasons, too. The bigger issue in the second PL season was how a striker ends up with an xG of 3.5. That's very low--I think his role in the team and the overall weakness and defensiveness of the squad were a big part of it. But overall I'd say, yeah, his finishing needs to improve.

If someone says: "I don't think his finishing is ever going to be good enough at this level" then I think that's fair enough. I can see the logic behind it. It's a much better debate to be having/question to be asking than "he's not trying," "he doesn't want to be here," or "he can't run properly." Those just aren't very good explanations for his travails, in my opinion.

I don't think wanting to get someone like Grabban in is an outlandish idea at all. I disagree, but I think there's a case to be made for it. And if the club coming in for McBurnie was someone like Rangers, I'd take it more seriously. But selling the guy to a direct promotion rival is crackers, in my view, and people suggesting it are letting their dislike of the player trump their good sense.
 
dc_blade said:
Yeah, I think my post sort of concluded with the question of his finishing. I'd want to see some sign of him starting to take some of these chances in the next half-dozen or so games to feel confident that his new role in the team was going to lead to a decent goal return. I don't think underperforming his xG this season so far is a big deal because it's a small sample size. But he underperformed it in both of the PL seasons, too. The bigger issue in the second PL season was how a striker ends up with an xG of 3.5. That's very low--I think his role in the team and the overall weakness and defensiveness of the squad were a big part of it. But overall I'd say, yeah, his finishing needs to improve.

If someone says: "I don't think his finishing is ever going to be good enough at this level" then I think that's fair enough. I can see the logic behind it. It's a much better debate to be having/question to be asking than "he's not trying," "he doesn't want to be here," or "he can't run properly." Those just aren't very good explanations for his travails, in my opinion.

I don't think wanting to get someone like Grabban in is an outlandish idea at all. I disagree, but I think there's a case to be made for it. And if the club coming in for McBurnie was someone like Rangers, I'd take it more seriously. But selling the guy to a direct promotion rival is crackers, in my view, and people suggesting it are letting their dislike of the player trump their good sense.
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I suppose a lot depends on McBurnie's ability to rediscover his scoring form. If his Swansea and initial United form is the actual blip then it is a consideration.

Sell an ineffectual player to a rival. Get a decent fee into the club, remove his wages and handicap a rival with a non scoring forward. Meanwhile replace with a player who has a recent scoring record.

It's all on him to show more than promise. Encouraging as it was, he isn't going to have chances served up on a plate anymore than on Saturday. Sharp would have dreamed of a day like Saturday as a centre forward.

He doesn't have much time before the window shuts to change the club's mind if a very tempting offer was to arrive. Plus there's the small matter of an inconvenient court case hanging over him too.

Setting Grabban to one side, you might be able to go out and spend the fee on Emil Riis Jakobson of Preston or Gyokeres of Coventry. Imagine that. McBurnie out and one of those two in. Net flat.
 
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blades14 said:
It was 1 game. Still missed 3 clear cut chances. Get rid whilst we can charge a fee
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The only one he could've done anything different at all with was the first one in the second half when he had a bit of time, he could've snatched at it. You'd probably be on here hammering him for that too mind after it blazed over the bar. The others were point blank blocks.
 
Some people are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think we're getting 7, 8, 9 million for Mcburnie.

If I were a West brom fan I'd be disappointed at paying even half those figures.

And thinking we'd be able to sign Stewart, Riis or Gyokeres needs to give their head a wobble.
 
Gyokeres must be around the £12m mark.
There's no way we sell McBurnie and bring someone of his caliber in.
 
Nelson1889 said:
Some people are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think we're getting 7, 8, 9 million for Mcburnie.

If I were a West brom fan I'd be disappointed at paying even half those figures.

And thinking we'd be able to sign Stewart, Riis or Gyokeres needs to give their head a wobble.
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Totally agree. No club is going to let go of their top strikers at this time of the window, so getting rid of McBurnie is not an option I'd like to see us take. Some may say they'll "drive him their myself" but then you've got to consider that there is a player in there with McBurnie, particularly in the Championship. We all saw from Saturday's performance how much of an asset he can be to United, whether he scores or not he creates chances for others. We don't have another to do the same job, Jebbo the nearest but he's not ready yet to be relied upon week in week out at this level.

At best we'd end up getting a young player in on loan to replace McBurnie, someone likely who hasn't played much football. Then there's selling a decent forward to one of your main rivals to consider. The only argument for selling McBurnie is if he is likely to be given a sentence in December then you could argue it will be worth selling him now, but I would imagine that's difficult to tell and even then we may want to keep him after, especially if th sentence amounts to a couple of months say so he's still available this season.
 
I do wonder whether Robinsion may be thrown into the equation? I still wouldn't sell McBurnie even if Robinson came the other way because I don't feel what McBurnie offers can be replicated by Robinson and Robinson has always operated best as a left forward which we'll not offer. But saying all of that, I still like Robinson and I wouldn't be surprised if he does well this season if he leaves Albion; Chris Wilder may well be interested!?
 
Nelson1889 said:
Some people are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think we're getting 7, 8, 9 million for Mcburnie.

If I were a West brom fan I'd be disappointed at paying even half those figures.

And thinking we'd be able to sign Stewart, Riis or Gyokeres needs to give their head a wobble.
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Boro we’re quoted 8m for Riis. If we got anywhere near that, given he’ll be on about a quarter of what McBurnie will be on, then why would that be an impossible deal to do? You’re also getting 1.5m in wages of which you could probably offer half or two thirds.

We spent 20m on McBurnie. Not even Bruce is dumb enough to approach us and say “I’ll give you 3m”.
 
Champagneblade said:
Boro we’re quoted 8m for Riis. If we got anywhere near that, given he’ll be on about a quarter of what McBurnie will be on, then why would that be an impossible deal to do? You’re also getting 1.5m in wages of which you could probably offer half or two thirds.

We spent 20m on McBurnie. Not even Bruce is dumb enough to approach us and say “I’ll give you 3m”.
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We're not getting anything like £8m for mcburnie, at best I think we'd be lucky to get £5m based on the last 2 years and the fact he's up in court in a few months (not that anything will come of it I'd guess)

Then where do we get the £3m shortfall from?
 
Mouth of the South said:
Really - a 34 year old who hasn't played since last season?

Tbh - I wouldn't have been again him being added to the ranks as I still feel Utd are a striker short, but not at the expense of McB surely
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Grabbon has always scored goals wherever he's played. McBurnie has seven in ninety apps for us. There's no faulting McB's effort but that should be the norm whereas his function as a goalscorer is frankly appalling. If he stays I fervently hope he scores for fun, and with the creativity we now possess and his apparent return to full fitness there are no more excuses.
 
bongleblade said:
It would be poor business to sell McBurnie right now. He’s said himself it’s the first time he’s felt fit in the past 2 years, and clearly looks that way with his performance on Saturday too
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Whether he’s truly fit remains to be seen, but he certainly looks better equipped physically now than he has at any other time at the club.

The thing is as a supporter, what I want to know, is why he hasn’t made an effort to get himself fit in the previous 2 years? Why hasn’t he got his fucking arse in the gym before now? A lot of his failings as a player, are down to his lack of strength and general fitness, his touch is good, but his pace and physicality could improve with some targeted strength and conditioning? The fact that he hasn’t addressed this obvious weakness before, shows a complete lack of professionalism, which has been evident in his off field behaviour.

I’m not a betting man, but I’d wager we’ll see a lot more of McBurnie on the pitch this season and he’ll spend a lot less time on the treatment table, as the end of his contract looms large on the horizon.

Perhaps the way to get the best out of him, is to just give him a twelve month extension every year? 🤔
 
1889 said:
Whether he’s truly fit remains to be seen, but he certainly looks better equipped physically now than he has at any other time at the club.

The thing is as a supporter, what I want to know, is why he hasn’t made an effort to get himself fit in the previous 2 years? Why hasn’t he got his fucking arse in the gym before now? A lot of his failings as a player, are down to his lack of strength and general fitness, his touch is good, but his pace and physicality could improve with some targeted strength and conditioning? The fact that he hasn’t addressed this obvious weakness before, shows a complete lack of professionalism, which has been evident in his off field behaviour.

I’m not a betting man, but I’d wager we’ll see a lot more of McBurnie on the pitch this season and he’ll spend a lot less time on the treatment table, as the end of his contract looms large on the horizon.

Perhaps the way to get the best out of him, is to just give him a twelve month extension every year? 🤔
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hmmm not sure it's about making effort to be fit, but more about illness and injuries? He's had a rough time apparently, i don't know what exactly but he does look a different player this season so it adds up
 
dc_blade said:
McBurnie's xG this season is 1.85 from 130 minutes played. So it's already halfway to his total from the relegation season, in 10% of the minutes played.
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1.849 xG all came last Saturday. It’s a bit of a misleading figure when he gets 3 easy chances in 1 game where we completely dominated.
 
derekacorah said:
1.849 xG all came last Saturday. It’s a bit of a misleading figure when he gets 3 easy chances in 1 game where we completely dominated.
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If anything it reinforces the point: in one game he had half the xG he had for the whole of the relegation season.

You're right, though. It's one game (plus a promising cameo against Sunderland). It's not enough to draw any strong conclusions but there are promising signs that he'll be more dangerous in this new role. Give him a handful of games to see if he can maintain the same level of performance and add some goals to his game. If not, fair enough, we move on. I think the circumstances now are different enough that it's worth a shot.
 

dc_blade said:
If anything it reinforces the point: in one game he had half the xG he had for the whole of the relegation season.

You're right, though. It's one game (plus a promising cameo against Sunderland). It's not enough to draw any strong conclusions but there are promising signs that he'll be more dangerous in this new role. Give him a handful of games to see if he can maintain the same level of performance and add some goals to his game. If not, fair enough, we move on. I think the circumstances now are different enough that it's worth a shot.
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I’d say any striker playing in a promotion chasing team should have umpteen more opportunities than one playing in a dismal relegation season.

He’s played ok the last couple of games but we need a much bigger sample to judge this season as a success.
 
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