ekke287
Arrives precisely when he means to.
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- Sep 9, 2016
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So three losses in three mean the gap to second is now 5 points with 4 to play. Obviously we all feel negative and down but really it’s not over, so I thought I’d work out scenarios where we can gain autos from here on in:
Scenario 1 - Win 2 more games than either Burnley or Leeds
We have Cardiff, Burnley, Stoke and Blackburn. If we can get two wins from those and one of Leeds or Burnley lose two whilst we match their other two results we’re above them. Highly unlikely either Burnley or Leeds lose two however, and current form suggests we don’t win our last four.
Scenario 2 - Beat Burnley and win one more game than them.
Burnley is now a must win to have any hope, and then we’d have to hope they lose another whilst we gain an extra win. It’s not unheard of that we could beat Burnley if we play to our potential, however I dont feel Burnley are likely to lose 2 of their last 4, regardless of if we beat them.
Scenario 3 - Win all our games and hope for multiple crumbles
Leeds have to play Plymouth and Oxford who’ve shown they are fighting hard, so no easy games. Also need to play Bristol City trying to keep a play off spot. Burnley have a tricky run away at Watford, QPR and home to a tricky Millwall side, though all these fixtures could be dead rubbers by the time they come around. Unlikely to happen.
Realistically I think it’s over now, although following Oxford there was talk of twists and turns still to come I believe the result at Plymouth has killed of all hope. Leeds and Burnley know that two wins from four should do it.
It’s a tough pill to swallow but it’s where we are, and shows how much it can change in a week. Hopefully we can settle and find some form going into the play offs.
Scenario 1 - Win 2 more games than either Burnley or Leeds
We have Cardiff, Burnley, Stoke and Blackburn. If we can get two wins from those and one of Leeds or Burnley lose two whilst we match their other two results we’re above them. Highly unlikely either Burnley or Leeds lose two however, and current form suggests we don’t win our last four.
Scenario 2 - Beat Burnley and win one more game than them.
Burnley is now a must win to have any hope, and then we’d have to hope they lose another whilst we gain an extra win. It’s not unheard of that we could beat Burnley if we play to our potential, however I dont feel Burnley are likely to lose 2 of their last 4, regardless of if we beat them.
Scenario 3 - Win all our games and hope for multiple crumbles
Leeds have to play Plymouth and Oxford who’ve shown they are fighting hard, so no easy games. Also need to play Bristol City trying to keep a play off spot. Burnley have a tricky run away at Watford, QPR and home to a tricky Millwall side, though all these fixtures could be dead rubbers by the time they come around. Unlikely to happen.
Realistically I think it’s over now, although following Oxford there was talk of twists and turns still to come I believe the result at Plymouth has killed of all hope. Leeds and Burnley know that two wins from four should do it.
It’s a tough pill to swallow but it’s where we are, and shows how much it can change in a week. Hopefully we can settle and find some form going into the play offs.
