I’m taking my stats from the world statistics web site because now the figures are close to nil....the media have chosen to stop reporting daily deaths.
In the last few days the daily numbers are 11, 3, 5, 3, 12 and 16.....so current rate is less than 10 deaths per day (less than 1 in 6,000,000 death risk).
The weekend death rate is 1 in 20,000,000, more chance of winning the jackpot on the national lottery (that’s a 1 in 14 million chance).
And thats the figures with an easing of the lock down. Pubs and restaurants don’t need masks, my local Tesco don‘t require masks.
I think we're talking about different things here. As mentioned, I was talking about the infection mortality rate, which is still thought to be slightly less than 0.9%. You're talking about the
daily risk of dying from Covid-19, which is
not the overall risk of dying from Covid-19.
Also it’s now been admitted that the initially reported figures were massaged/ fiddled to make them higher than they were.
No it hasn't.
For example if someone was instantly killed in a car accident and they happened to have covid...they were included in the covid death figures.
We are now reporting deaths the same as Scotland...which explains why they’ve had many days with ZERO deaths.
That's how mortality rates are always reported. It's definitely true that it will mostly likely overstate the mortality, but that's not the same as saying that they were "massaged" or "fiddled". In epidemiology, whichever way you do these things, it is never quite accurate. They could have done it a different way and underestimated the 'true' figures (whatever that means). That would almost certainly have been much more dangerous.
If you take as fact that 1 in 150 covid cases will die.....the fact that hardly anyone is in hospital and hardly anyone is dying
must mean that its relatively rare to find anyone with covid in England. However returning PL footballers have already tested positive and you hear cases of local lock downs because most people in certain factory have it. How come there’s no increase in hospitalisations or deaths in Leicester, Oldham or Blackburn.
Quite simply, there aren't that many cases at the moment. Most likely, because we're being reasonably sensible and keeping the R
0 down.
Overall, there have been somewhere between 40,000 (if you take the very narrow definition of 'Covid-related') and 65,000 (if you look at all excess deaths since March) deaths due to Covid-19 in the UK. Using the 1 in 150 figure, that would imply something like 6 million to 9.75 million cases in the UK. If what you're saying is correct, then there must have been a lot more cases. In which case, we probably now have herd immunity. Great!
The initial mantra was “protect the NHS” but if there’s no strain on the NHS then why we can’t we return to normal quicker but monitor the situation at each stage.
Because it's very delicate. If it gets out of quick (which it did in February/March, very quickly), it's very hard to reverse it.
There are simple equations of logic that I’m sure you’ll agree.
I agree that they are simplistic.
If many people currently (high positive test rate) have covid but hardly anyone is becoming ill or dying then it’s not that dangerous.
If not many people have it because it is a dangerous desease that kills 1 in 150 (like you say) then it obviously can’t be that infectious.
The first point isn't true. Not that many people currently have it. But that situation could change if things aren't handled properly.
The data proves it’s either infectious or dangerous....it can’t be both.....otherwise even with masks there would still be 1000’s of many deaths every day.
The reason is because now there are millions either don’t wear masks, fiddle around with their mask and don’t wear it properly, stopped washing their hands and stopped practising social distancing weeks ago...a 2nd spike was predicted many weeks ago....why is it not happening?
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info
No. The data prove that it
is infectious (an R
0 of about 3.0) and relatively dangerous (IFR = about 0.9%). The data you need to look at are from February, March in Europe. Or Latin America over the summer. Or the USA over the last six months. Second spikes
are happening. It's not happening in the UK now, because we still have a lot of extreme measures in place. I'd be absolutely delighted to be proved wrong, but I'm afraid that it is a lot more dangerous than you're implying.
