Why are we pre-season favourites?

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Grecian2000 said:
and the complete ignoring of form (i.e what actually happened) and betting based on perceived history (i.e what perhaps should have happened but actually didn't) is why you don't find a poor bookmaker.

Lump on Dazzler, the 5/1 is there for all to have a go at. As with last season (when I wouldn't touch us at under 20's) I'll stay clear until I like the look of the odds, and until we have more goals in us I wouldn't want any part of anything under 12/1.
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The only bets I have ever had in my life are 2 joke bets when we were in the PL that we would win at Arsenal and Chelsea 1-0 with Hulse scoring. I got 100-1 + on those for a £1 stake. I am still gnashing my teeth at the £2 thrown away, so whatever odds they put on I won't be betting anything. It really is a mug's game unless you just do it for the thrills and excitement of betting per se.

On the general point, aren't you going on short term history? I.e. last season;s history?
 
Darren said:
On the general point, aren't you going on short term history? I.e. last season;s history?
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Yes I am. Because that is the most relevant from a form point of view.

I love the fact we are a much bigger club than any we'll come across next season and our history is fantastic and relevant to me as a supporter. When I'm assessing where my money will go I take a different attitude entirely and am back in the real world of the here and now.
I think we have a way to go before we deserve to be favourites for the league and therefore won't be troubling the bookies at 5/1.

I was only trying to point out that's what the bloke was saying as well. He isn't saying we wont storm the league, just that he won't be backing us to do so at those prices.
 
5/1 may well look like a cracking price a few months into the season but I agree it's not at this stage given all the variables. Yes we played well in the 2nd half of last season but at least 3 of the key players won't be lining up a week on Saturday for example.

You won't get rich on these but better bets could be;

2/1 Top Northern club - PNE, Donny and Barnsley next in betting
7/4 Promotion - better than backing e/w for 2nd and 3rd albeit covering pesky play-offs !

If you're doing e/w doubles and trebles across the divisions then back away :)
 
Grecian2000 said:
Yes I am. Because that is the most relevant from a form point of view.

I love the fact we are a much bigger club than any we'll come across next season and our history is fantastic and relevant to me as a supporter. When I'm assessing where my money will go I take a different attitude entirely and am back in the real world of the here and now.
I think we have a way to go before we deserve to be favourites for the league and therefore won't be troubling the bookies at 5/1.

I was only trying to point out that's what the bloke was saying as well. He isn't saying we wont storm the league, just that he won't be backing us to do so at those prices.
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He may be right on the general point, but the Clough and 19 point gap arguments are crap. Clough has shown himself to be a competent 2nd tier manager ergo he should be able to manage a third tier team successfully (as indeed he did last season); and plenty of clubs have been 19 points off the pace a previous season and then won the league.

It has all the air of an article he wrote off the top of his head in 10 mins to fill up the website.
 
Darren said:
He may be right on the general point, but the Clough and 19 point gap arguments are crap. Clough has shown himself to be a competent 2nd tier manager ergo he should be able to manage a third tier team successfully (as indeed he did last season); and plenty of clubs have been 19 points off the pace a previous season and then won the league.

It has all the air of an article he wrote off the top of his head in 10 mins to fill up the website.
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I didn't bother with point two. As soon as a managers "win percentage" comes into the equation I'm out of there.

I have no doubt a 19 point defecit from the previous year can be overcome BUT only if you improve significantly. I don't think we have but we still have 9 days before we'll know a bit better.
 
Grecian2000 said:
I didn't bother with point two. As soon as a managers "win percentage" comes into the equation I'm out of there.

I have no doubt a 19 point defecit from the previous year can be overcome BUT only if you improve significantly. I don't think we have but we still have 9 days before we'll know a bit better.
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But that 19 point deficit only occurred because we had the most shit manager ever to walk the earth for the firts 10 games.

In those 10 games, I think Orient got 25 points. We got 5. Hence we actually did better than Orient during Clough's reign. I suspect the article writer did not know that. I respectfully suggest it is hugely relevant.
 
Grecian2000 said:
Like I said "dwelt at the start".

Is the loss of Brayford, Coady and Harry just as huge a relevance though? We aren't (on this day, 31st July) as good a first eleven as we were in May (in my view).
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You may be right.

All I am saying is that it is a shit article and anyone who doesn't bet on United because of the Clough and 19 point deficit points wants their head looking at....
 
Grecian2000 said:
Ok. Last go.

It's Clough, a 19 point deficit, + the big one, ONLY 5/1 odds.
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I'd agree with you that 5-1 at the start of the season is not generous. That's because we are not so hugely better than everyone else that 5-1 would seem to warrant.

As I say, the 19 point deficit as a false stat as it takes in the Weir diasaster.

We are agreed that the Clough stat is bollocks

See we are big mates really :-)
 
Personally I think the team we currently have will finish top 6 comfortably and would definitely fight for a top 2 finish. You do not need a '20 goals striker' to be promoted. We have many players that can score and I'm confident that a few players will hit double figures. I'm not saying don't sign one! I'm merely saying that our current squad is good enough and fills me with confidence. Admittedly I've only watched this pre-season.
 
true99blade said:
Personally I think the team we currently have will finish top 6 comfortably and would definitely fight for a top 2 finish. You do not need a '20 goals striker' to be promoted. We have many players that can score and I'm confident that a few players will hit double figures. I'm not saying don't sign one! I'm merely saying that our current squad is good enough and fills me with confidence. Admittedly I've only watched this pre-season.
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Trouble is ..top 6 isnt good enough for us ! Remember our play off record ?
We've got to be top 2....hence the need for a decent striker ,PLUS if a few players knock in 10 a piece,then we are good to go :)
 



JOEYDEE said:
Trouble is ..top 6 isnt good enough for us ! Remember our play off record ?
We've got to be top 2....hence the need for a decent striker ,PLUS if a few players knock in 10 a piece,then we are good to go :)
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Personally I'm more than confident that we'll finish top 2. People moaning about the quality of our squad not being as good as fellow promotion rivals really need a bit of a reality check because the squad is definitely capable.
 
true99blade said:
Personally I'm more than confident that we'll finish top 2. People moaning about the quality of our squad not being as good as fellow promotion rivals really need a bit of a reality check because the squad is definitely capable.
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You are right,the quality of the squad is ok,just much of a muchness,all interchangeable with each other,which aint so bad,but we still need that quality up front,which up to now we havn't got..we must have that because it could really come back to bite us ...
 
There is no 19 point deficit. Each season starts dead level for all.

Football is very different to the turf. There are no handicaps.

The article is bollocks on any level.
 
blader said:
Is it simple weight of betting, or are we missing something? I don't believe any impartial onlooker would look at our squad and think it's the best in the league, I'm pretty sure hardly anyone on here believes we will win the league, so what's it all about? Thoughts?
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Because we beat a champions league team 2-1, thats why are pre season favourites;):p:D:cool::rolleyes:
 
Cant wait to get going now. Really do think we have a very good chance of pulling this one off. Lets hope we pass the Titanic from Swillsborough on the way up
 
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