ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
They always say that form is temporary but class is permanent.
Back in August, I went through all of the Championship teams and forecast the final league table, in order to develop the benchmark sets of results that I use for my comparison graphs. I posted that forecast table on August 9th, and my Top 5 were Ipswich, Southampton, Blades, Birmingham, Coventry.
If you look at the league table today, you see those teams in 1st , 3rd,11th,14th and 18th positions – so my forecast looks pretty bad!
However, if you look at the footballxg.com table below, based on xg performance, lo and behold those 5 are the top 5, with Blades in 3rd position on 34 points.
xgPoints Table:
The difference for us comes from scoring 28 compared to an xg of 35.5 and conceding 31 compared to an xgAgainst of 26.6.
xg Comparison:
Generally over a season, unless you have a really bad keeper or really bad strikers, your outcome tends towards your xg figures – so that xgPoints table should provide us with real optimism for the rest of the season. Michael Cooper has conceded 5 more than "xg On Target" says he should have done – and that won’t continue. We’ve scored 7 less than we should have – with Ings (-3) and Peck (-2) the biggest negatives. I’m sure Ings will get back to scoring form, and Sydie had already started to outperform his xg before his injury. We have generally started to outperform xg recently - so look at that xgPoints Table and believe that playoffs are possible.
With regard to Wrexham – they generally score 1 or 2 at home and concede 1 or 2, although they did score 3 against Coventry and conceded 3 against West Brom and QPR. We’ve scored 3 away three times and conceded 3 or more three times – so you would say that both teams should certainly score and 2-2 and 1-1 are probably the most likely outcomes – with 2-1 either way after that (or have we started another run of scoring 3-goals?!).
I want at least 5 points from Wrexham, Stoke and Leicester – so 3 points from the Racecourse Ground would be a great start!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
Back in August, I went through all of the Championship teams and forecast the final league table, in order to develop the benchmark sets of results that I use for my comparison graphs. I posted that forecast table on August 9th, and my Top 5 were Ipswich, Southampton, Blades, Birmingham, Coventry.
If you look at the league table today, you see those teams in 1st , 3rd,11th,14th and 18th positions – so my forecast looks pretty bad!
However, if you look at the footballxg.com table below, based on xg performance, lo and behold those 5 are the top 5, with Blades in 3rd position on 34 points.
xgPoints Table:
The difference for us comes from scoring 28 compared to an xg of 35.5 and conceding 31 compared to an xgAgainst of 26.6.
xg Comparison:
Generally over a season, unless you have a really bad keeper or really bad strikers, your outcome tends towards your xg figures – so that xgPoints table should provide us with real optimism for the rest of the season. Michael Cooper has conceded 5 more than "xg On Target" says he should have done – and that won’t continue. We’ve scored 7 less than we should have – with Ings (-3) and Peck (-2) the biggest negatives. I’m sure Ings will get back to scoring form, and Sydie had already started to outperform his xg before his injury. We have generally started to outperform xg recently - so look at that xgPoints Table and believe that playoffs are possible.
With regard to Wrexham – they generally score 1 or 2 at home and concede 1 or 2, although they did score 3 against Coventry and conceded 3 against West Brom and QPR. We’ve scored 3 away three times and conceded 3 or more three times – so you would say that both teams should certainly score and 2-2 and 1-1 are probably the most likely outcomes – with 2-1 either way after that (or have we started another run of scoring 3-goals?!).
I want at least 5 points from Wrexham, Stoke and Leicester – so 3 points from the Racecourse Ground would be a great start!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
