Why are we pre-season favourites?

[Bergen Blade]

5 league goals. 10 in 3 seasons. I will be surprised if he gets double figures in the league.

But even if he does, so must Baxter, and Murphy, and Scougall...the point is that the current squad will only score enough goals if everything breaks right.

We are desperate for someone who can score 15 or 20 goals.

Fun Flynn Fact: 9 of our Ryan's 10 league goals have been scored at the Lane. The only one scored away from home was at Carlisle in December 2012.

Goals scored by our current players last season (league):

Defenders:


Craig Alcock - 0
Bob Harris - 0
Harry Maguire - 5
Neill Collins - 2
Terry Kennedy - 0
Andy Butler - 2
Harrison McGahey - 0


Midfielders:

Ryan Flynn - 7
Michael Doyle - 3
Stephen McGinn - 0
Stefan Scougall - 2
Ben Davies - 3
Florent Cuvelier - 0
Callum McFadzean - 0
Connor Dimaio - 0
Otis Khan - 0
Louis Reed - 0
Jamal Campbell-Ryce - 3
Chris Basham - 2
James Wallace - 2


Strikers:

Chris Porter - 7
Joe Ironside - 0
Diego DeGirolamo - 0
Jose Baxter - 6
Jamie Murphy - 4
Marc McNulty - 17


65 goals in total, 48 without McNulty's goals. Wolves scored 89 goals last season, second placed Brentford 72.

 

[Revolution]

Goals scored by our current players last season (league):

Defenders:


Craig Alcock - 0
Bob Harris - 0
Harry Maguire - 5
Neill Collins - 2
Terry Kennedy - 0
Andy Butler - 2
Harrison McGahey - 0


Midfielders:

Ryan Flynn - 7
Michael Doyle - 3
Stephen McGinn - 0
Stefan Scougall - 2
Ben Davies - 3
Florent Cuvelier - 0
Callum McFadzean - 0
Connor Dimaio - 0
Otis Khan - 0
Louis Reed - 0
Jamal Campbell-Ryce - 3
Chris Basham - 2
James Wallace - 2


Strikers:

Chris Porter - 7
Joe Ironside - 0
Diego DeGirolamo - 0
Jose Baxter - 6
Jamie Murphy - 4
Marc McNulty - 17


65 goals in total, 48 without McNulty's goals. Wolves scored 89 goals last season, second placed Brentford 72.

Flynn got 5 not 7.

McNulty is the big unknown. He scoredd less than Lyle Taylor did the season before in the same league.

There are not enough goals in the squad for top 2 at the moment.

 

[moDtheGod]

You state we're lacking quality, the bookies make us favourites. Now you show me a poor bookie and I'll show you a wednesday fan with an inferiority complex. Fact is neither exist!

Bookmakers don't get rich off outright betting in the close season. Most people betting these are having a fiver on a four team accumulator, possibly five to eight teams if they are playing Scottish outrights too. There won't be that much money going on these.

Do you honestly think that odds compilers have got time to assess every single squad in Britain properly when pricing these markets up? Give over. They're doing exactly what most "experts" in the pub are doing. "Sheffield United? Oh they've got that defender that Wolves are looking to pay £3 million for, they get 25,000 every week and were in the Premier League recently so they must have a big budget and they made the FA Cup Semi final and beat some Premier League teams. Favourites. Next."

If after they have done that they have priced it up way out of line, the shrewdies will look to smash into their mistaken prices, at which point they adjust.

Look at the volume traded on the Premier League outright right now - it's about three quarters of a million quid. Now look at League one. Five and a half thousand pounds. You think that's a fully formed and reliable market? Do me a favour. For the World Cup outright, you were looking at £10 million before the tournament had begun.

 

[SouthEssexBlade]

Bookmakers don't get rich off outright betting in the close season. Most people betting these are having a fiver on a four team accumulator, possibly five to eight teams if they are playing Scottish outrights too. There won't be that much money going on these.

Do you honestly think that odds compilers have got time to assess every single squad in Britain properly when pricing these markets up? Give over. They're doing exactly what most "experts" in the pub are doing. "Sheffield United? Oh they've got that defender that Wolves are looking to pay £3 million for, they get 25,000 every week and were in the Premier League recently so they must have a big budget and they made the FA Cup Semi final and beat some Premier League teams. Favourites. Next."

If after they have done that they have priced it up way out of line, the shrewdies will look to smash into their mistaken prices, at which point they adjust.

Look at the volume traded on the Premier League outright right now - it's about three quarters of a million quid. Now look at League one. Five and a half thousand pounds. You think that's a fully formed and reliable market? Do me a favour. For the World Cup outright, you were looking at £10 million before the tournament had begun.

So you do know a poor bookie then? According to more than a few on here, we I'll struggle to make top 6. So they must be way out with the odds at the moment

 

[moDtheGod]

I don't know a bookie who made his fortune betting outright markets over the summer, no.

I know bookmakers make a lot of money, but it isn't from these markets. They don't put that much time into these, I can promise you.

For the record, if I had a large chunk of money that I could afford to tie up for the duration of football season, I would be very interested in laying our price. It seems terribly short to me.

 

[SouthEssexBlade]

I don't know a bookie who made his fortune betting outright markets over the summer, no.

I know bookmakers make a lot of money, but it isn't from these markets. They don't put that much time into these, I can promise you.

For the record, if I had a large chunk of money that I could afford to tie up for the duration of football season, I would be very interested in laying our price. It seems terribly short to me.

Really? You think they have the price too short? Promotion, champions or both?

 

[wizadry]

Luke ayling
Aaron wilbraham
Sam baldock
Jay Emmanuel-Thomas
Luke freeman
Wade Elliot
Scott wagstaff

If you believe that the players you mentions are better than that collection of Bristol city players, we clearly see the game in a different way.

The only one i'd even think about having is Baldock,there is not a cat in hells chance i'd have any of the others over our players,isn't this the same Bristol City we did the double over last season, and in the 1-0 away win,this was our team.Long,Mcmahon,White,Collins,Maguire,Doyle,Coady,Lappin,Mcginn,Taylor and Porter.Subs were Howard,Hill,Flynn,Baxter,Miller,Cuvelier and King.Their team started with Shorey,JET,Baldock,Wagstaff and Elliott.Now i'll try not to be too hasty with our side but if that team can beat Bristol Shity then iv'e every confidence that this one can,and thats without the further additions we make,so i guess thats me aswell who see's it different to you,but its all about opinions i suppose,we will just have to be miles apart on this one.

How much is it for a Brizzle shity season ticket now days blader?Have you renewed?

 

[wizadry]

Bloody hell, have I just joined pork talk without my knowledge?

I think he's stating simple facts as to why we are favourites,in any case whats it like on porktalk.

 

[blader]

The only one i'd even think about having is Baldock,there is not a cat in hells chance i'd have any of the others over our players,isn't this the same Bristol City we did the double over last season, and in the 1-0 away win,this was our team.Long,Mcmahon,White,Collins,Maguire,Doyle,Coady,Lappin,Mcginn,Taylor and Porter.Subs were Howard,Hill,Flynn,Baxter,Miller,Cuvelier and King.Their team started with Shorey,JET,Baldock,Wagstaff and Elliott.Now i'll try not to be too hasty with our side but if that team can beat Bristol Shity then iv'e every confidence that this one can,and thats without the further additions we make,so i guess thats me aswell who see's it different to you,but its all about opinions i suppose,we will just have to be miles apart on this one.

How much is it for a Brizzle shity season ticket now days blader?Have you renewed?

JET + baldock + wag staff + freeman = 47 goals last season

Sheffield United football club = 48 goals last season.

 

[Gavlar]

Clough is a much better manager. Doesn't matter how good he is if we dont have anyone who can put the ball in the net. Mourinho' the best manager in the world for me, but with no prolific striker even he couldn't win the league. Sam applies here.

Which Sam is that? )

Sam I am?

Sam Fox?

)

 

[wizadry]

JET + baldock + wag staff + freeman = 47 goals last season

Sheffield United football club = 48 goals last season.

So they have to find between 30 to 40 goals from somewhere then if thats your theory,and so do we but we have mcnulty plus atleast another forward,who else have they got,oh and one more thing,Baldock will not be there next season,he has championship clubs after him so minus his goals bristolian.

 

[Bristol City]

So they have to find between 30 to 40 goals from somewhere then if thats your theory,and so do we but we have mcnulty plus atleast another forward,who else have they got,oh and one more thing,Baldock will not be there next season,he has championship clubs after him so minus his goals bristolian.

I'll think you'll find that Baldock will stay unless we get an offer of over 2.5 million. He's stated he's very happy here, and his wife his pregnant. one of the most genuine and unique football player. Also has stated that he can't wait to play championship football with us soon, and is captain. Also we told Brighton to jog on after a stupidly low offer, and Baldock told Cotterill to expect a bid, and told Cotterill he didn't want to leave and for him to reject the bid

 

[wizadry]

I'll think you'll find that Baldock will stay unless we get an offer of over 2.5 million. He's stated he's very happy here, and his wife his pregnant. one of the most genuine and unique football player. Also has stated that he can't wait to play championship football with us soon, and is captain

We will see pal, we will see.There are going to be clubs like Watford,who when they sell Deeney for a large chunk are going to come knockin,middlesbrough are another club who will have money soon,and Reading are just getting the go ahead for their takeover.

 

[Lukecouchman]

Well after watching Barnsley vs Halifax town, I can't imagine they will be up there! Rochdale not much better either

 

[cooperblade]

If after they have done that they have priced it up way out of line, the shrewdies will look to smash into their mistaken prices, at which point they adjust.

Not saying they were shrewdies and not saying they 'smashed' in but William Hill opened up with United at 8s to win the league and cut them to 6s the same day.

 

[KenMcnaughtsNuts]

Well last season Portsmouth were clear favourites in league two, all their fans said they had no chance. They nearly got relegated. Bookies don't know anything or really care what the prices should be. If you turn up wanting 10 grand on a team to win the league at 10/1, trust me you wouldnt get very far. You'd get 50 quid on at 10/1, then the price would be cut to 6/1 30 seconds later.

 

[moDtheGod]

Not saying they were shrewdies and not saying they 'smashed' in but William Hill opened up with United at 8s to win the league and cut them to 6s the same day.

It won't take much money to move this market. As I already pointed out, £5,500 matched on Betfair when I looked the other day. Total lack of liquidity, it's really not a reliable guide at all and as we all know, high street bookies are linked to the exchanges these days. Nobody is putting any effort into pricing these markets up. Is it you that works in the industry, Cooper? Or did I make that up?

Really? You think they have the price too short? Promotion, champions or both?

Both. We are 7/4 for promotion last time I looked. That is insanely short. 6/1 to win this league is a ludicrous price. I'd want double that.

 

[sheffielder]

The mood will change when McNuts scores a first half hatrick on Friday. Fill your boots!

 

[true99blade]

To all of you whining about our players not scoring enough last season... Many of them only had half a season and even needed some time to gel. For instance Scougall got 3 in just less than half a season. I'm more than confident he would at the very least double that if he played a full season with us. The same goes for Baxter in a way, his fitness seems to have improved and now's his chance to kick on from a bit of a mixed season for him last year. I could see Murphy bagging double figures this season.

 

[sheffielder]

To all of you whining about our players not scoring enough last season... Many of them only had half a season and even needed some time to gel. For instance Scougall got 3 in just less than half a season. I'm more than confident he would at the very least double that if he played a full season with us. The same goes for Baxter in a way, his fitness seems to have improved and now's his chance to kick on from a bit of a mixed season for him last year. I could see Murphy bagging double figures this season.

Hopefully that will be the case. I think this is why players like Sammon at Derby have been linked. I am sure I read somewhere that Clough is looking for a player to bring the likes of Murphy,, Baxter, Flynn and Scougs into play.

 

[cooperblade]

It won't take much money to move this market. As I already pointed out, £5,500 matched on Betfair when I looked the other day. Total lack of liquidity, it's really not a reliable guide at all and as we all know, high street bookies are linked to the exchanges these days. Nobody is putting any effort into pricing these markets up. Is it you that works in the industry, Cooper? Or did I make that up?

I do.

You're right, it wouldn't have taken a lot of money but it's significant in terms of how we're viewed that enough people even noticed that we'd put our L1 prices out.

A quick look at social media shows we're going to be in a very high percentage of ante-post accas. Not a reliable indication of how we'll perform but shows why all bookmakers will keep us very short. At this time last year, you could back QPR and Wolves in a double at 43/1 (and I did unfortunately) - don't need to take much at those sort of prices to rack up a significant liability pretty quickly.

It's a shame that the liquidity is so low on the exchanges for L1 and L2 - convinced you could make a good few quid by remaining glued to twitter and backing every team who announces a 'decent' signing and then laying them off as their fans all pile in to back them. As it is, I just end up with a load of 'value' losers and, as everyone knows, you can't eat value.

Our compilers do price up the lower divisions from scratch - they will of course then sense check that against the competition. No help from the exchanges (for reasons you've detailed) on these markets.

 

[bartman]

I think out of the players you mention only freeman and baldock would possibly be worthy of a place in our squad.
I also think we need another proper striker but can see us getting goals from all areas with our current players.

I don't get this obsession with Luke Freeman. Seen him half a dozen times and he has never played well or influenced a game. I'd be disappointed if we signed him

 

[moDtheGod]

A quick look at social media shows we're going to be in a very high percentage of ante-post accas. Not a reliable indication of how we'll perform but shows why all bookmakers will keep us very short. At this time last year, you could back QPR and Wolves in a double at 43/1 (and I did unfortunately) - don't need to take much at those sort of prices to rack up a significant liability pretty quickly.

End of thread.

This is exactly why we are pre-season favourites and it has absolutely nothing to do with how good we are or aren't.

Edit: I must confess that I didn't know Hills priced those markets up themselves, I actually thought that they didn't. Not many people really compile these days. Not in the proper sense of the word.

 

[blader]

To all of you whining about our players not scoring enough last season... Many of them only had half a season and even needed some time to gel. For instance Scougall got 3 in just less than half a season. I'm more than confident he would at the very least double that if he played a full season with us. The same goes for Baxter in a way, his fitness seems to have improved and now's his chance to kick on from a bit of a mixed season

for him last year. I could see Murphy bagging double figures this season.

History shows we will need AT LEAST 70 goals, as that's being stingy, to win promotion. I'd like to see your predicted breakdown of these 70 goals in our current squad.

 

[wizadry]

History shows we will need AT LEAST 70 goals, as that's being stingy, to win promotion. I'd like to see your predicted breakdown of these 70 goals in our current squad.

You can never tell how many goals any team or player is going to score,injuries,positions,form,all of these things come into it,you could guess but thats all it would be.One thing for sure is we need another striker,didn't know if anyone knew this..

 

[blader]

You can never tell how many goals any team or player is going to score,injuries,positions,form,all of these things come into it,you could guess but thats all it would be.One thing for sure is we need another striker,didn't know if anyone knew this..

It's true, the only thing we can use to predict the future is the past. And that past doesn't suggest we will find 70 goals from these players!

 

[true99blade]

History shows we will need AT LEAST 70 goals, as that's being stingy, to win promotion. I'd like to see your predicted breakdown of these 70 goals in our current squad.

I feel that our current team would score a fair few, but it isn't a must that we out score the division. A team that knows how to win will get promoted and that can rely on defenders just as much as attackers. Our defence, to me, looks one of the strongest in the division and that could quite easily win us promotion if Murphy, Baxter, Scougall etc can provide a few goals throughout the season. Solely relying on one striker to score 20+ goals doesn't always solve how to get promoted. For instance I feel that the team that ended last season would definitely get promoted out of this league this season.

 

[true99blade]

It's true, the only thing we can use to predict the future is the past. And that past doesn't suggest we will find 70 goals from these players!

"History shows we will need AT LEAST 70 goals".... is this not looking into the past to predict the future?

 

[blader]

"History shows we will need AT LEAST 70 goals".... is this not looking into the past to predict the future?

Ye that's my point. So in the past you have always needed 70+ goals. What a strange risk you're willing to take that we could rely on only conceding very few, and winning 1-0. What a rubbish season that would be! Seems strange you are averse to us fans wanting our team to provide more goals. At the end of the day, I pay my money for my season ticket to be entertained, not my team to set out for a 1-0 home win. The year Evans got 30+ mght be my est season ever and we failed to win promotion, but we always knew we'd bag a goal or two every week. I want to be entertained, I think that's a fair demand for over £300!

 

[Woodwardfan]

My four teams for Season Accumulator Bets are: Chelsea, Wigan, SUFC and Bury.

After last week I wish I'd gone for a Burton (Albion probably worth a bet) but I'm still happy with my choices. Bit worried about Diego Costa more than the Blades actually, but I just love Fabrigas - of old anyway, I think his young lady may be distracting him these days. Wigan a bit quiet on the transfer front but great manager and still have parachute payments. Bury did great under Flitcroft and have spent well. SUFC, keep the faith, striker, hopefully Billy to arrive yet. Not really needed with Flynn, Murphy, Scougall, Wallace, Baxter, (Coady?) pouring into the box from midfield - bring it on.