Why are we pre-season favourites?

[wizadry]

It's true, the only thing we can use to predict the future is the past. And that past doesn't suggest we will find 70 goals from these players!

You can never predict whats going to happen in football when it comes down to how many goals we are going to get,if we could we would be millionaire's like swiss.

 

[LoughboroBlade]

History shows we will need AT LEAST 70 goals, as that's being stingy, to win promotion.

Actually, history has plenty of examples of teams scoring less than that and gaining promotion at this level. Going back to 1992/93, you have the following:

Nottingham Forest got 64 goals and finished 2nd in this league in 2007/08.
Colchester got 58 goals in 2005/06 and also were promoted in 2nd place.
Wigan won the division in 2002/03 with 68 goals.
Burnley finished 2nd in 1999/2000 with 69 goals.
Walsall finished 2nd in 1998/99 with 63 goals.
Watford won the division in 1997/98 with 67 goals, followed by Bristol City with 69 goals.
In 1996/97, Bury won the league with 62 goals, with Stockport 2nd with 59 goals.

It should be noted too that over the same period, not one team managed our own total of 92 goals in 2011/12 - the one where, should anyone need reminding, we finished 3rd.

I don't think it's unfair to mark post the Crewe game as the point Clough turned the club around, away from what he'd inherited immediately from Weir into something he could call his own side. In those 19 league games we scored 22, conceded 8, and picked up 41 points. Across a season that would resemble 53 goals scored, 19 conceded, and 99 points. That's obviously not going to happen, but picking an arbitrary goal total as being somehow the be all and end all isn't quite right. "Goals win games" yes, but great defending gets the maximum amount of value from those goals.

 

[blader]

Actually, history has plenty of examples of teams scoring less than that and gaining promotion at this level. Going back to 1992/93, you have the following:

Nottingham Forest got 64 goals and finished 2nd in this league in 2007/08.
Colchester got 58 goals in 2005/06 and also were promoted in 2nd place.
Wigan won the division in 2002/03 with 68 goals.
Burnley finished 2nd in 1999/2000 with 69 goals.
Walsall finished 2nd in 1998/99 with 63 goals.
Watford won the division in 1997/98 with 67 goals, followed by Bristol City with 69 goals.
In 1996/97, Bury won the league with 62 goals, with Stockport 2nd with 59 goals.

It should be noted too that over the same period, not one team managed our own total of 92 goals in 2011/12 - the one where, should anyone need reminding, we finished 3rd.

I don't think it's unfair to mark post the Crewe game as the point Clough turned the club around, away from what he'd inherited immediately from Weir into something he could call his own side. In those 19 league games we scored 22, conceded 8, and picked up 41 points. Across a season that would resemble 53 goals scored, 19 conceded, and 99 points. That's obviously not going to happen, but picking an arbitrary goal total as being somehow the be all and end all isn't quite right. "Goals win games" yes, but great defending gets the maximum amount of value from those goals.

Stil don't see these as valid arguments really. It's as if people have acknowledged this squad won't score a lot of goals, so are happy to try and be positive about our defence and hope we can win enough games 1-0. We're sheff utd in division 3, and quite frankly I aren't happy with us going into a FOURTH season and still it Chris fucking porter as our only recognised strikers how? How has this happened? We should be aiming to win the league and to win it, you certainly need over 70 goals.

 

[LoughboroBlade]

to win it, you certainly need over 70 goals.

See above.

 

[true99blade]

Stil don't see these as valid arguments really. It's as if people have acknowledged this squad won't score a lot of goals, so are happy to try and be positive about our defence and hope we can win enough games 1-0. We're sheff utd in division 3, and quite frankly I aren't happy with us going into a FOURTH season and still it Chris fucking porter as our only recognised strikers how? How has this happened? We should be aiming to win the league and to win it, you certainly need over 70 goals.

May I ask you would you rather Ched came back and scored another 30 goals as well as the team scoring 90 odd goals but yet again failing in a play off final....OR score 69 goals and win the league with a few slender victories? Keep in mind you said it was strange of me to suggest a defence can win a team the league.

 

[Pinchy]

Does anyone seriously believe that a former England, Liverpool and Nottingham Forest goalscorer doesn't know full-well we need a striker? His 131 top-flight goals might give him a clue that they are a useful commodity.

Equally, anyone who thinks he doesn't have carefully considered and meticulous plans to remedy the situation doesn't know much about NC.

 

[blader]

See above.

SO it's been 15 years since a side won the league by scoring less that 70 goals, I'd say that's pretty conclusive!

May I ask you would you rather Ched came back and scored another 30 goals as well as the team scoring 90 odd goals but yet again failing in a play off final....OR score 69 goals and win the league with a few slender victories? Keep in mind you said it was strange of me to suggest a defence can win a team the league.

Clearly they aren't the only 2 options, so it's pretty abstract. Goals win games, we don't score enough goals, ergo we won't win enough games for promotion with the current squad. We needed to find an EXTRA 20+ goals from last seasons team, plus those from Coady, which I don't feel has been replaced. I thought it was unanimous that we needed a new striker, although it appears not!

 

[true99blade]

Clearly they aren't the only 2 options, so it's pretty abstract. Goals win games, we don't score enough goals, ergo we won't win enough games for promotion with the current squad.

They clearly aren't. Well done for figuring that one out but you didn't answer my question.

We needed to find an EXTRA 20+ goals from last seasons team, plus those from Coady, which I don't feel has been replaced. I thought it was unanimous that we needed a new striker, although it appears not!

Coady hasn't been replaced? I'm pretty sure we signed James Wallace as a replacement along with a couple of others. Considering you or any other Blades haven't seen him play for us yet I find it bizarre that you're that conclusive. I think we need another striker. When did I say we shouldn't buy one? I feel that it wouldn't be the end of our season if we didn't go into August with one because I feel that our defence would be solid enough to not concede goals and for our attacking players to deliver however they can. We did it for the most part at the latter end of last season with Clough.

 

[LoughboroBlade]

SO it's been 15 years since a side won the league by scoring less that 70 goals, I'd say that's pretty conclusive!

Indeed - apology accepted!

 

[Revolution]

Nicked from another thread where I posted the research. Last 10 years of promoted clubs goals scored:

2014 - 89 and 72
2013 - 62 and 76
2012 - 82 and 81
2011 - 85 and 86
2010 - 89 and 77
2009 - 84 and 78
2008 - 82 and 64
2007 - 73 and 63
2006 - 72 and 58
2005 - 87 and 80

1st place average goals scored: 80.5 Median: 83
2nd place average goals scored: 73.5 Median: 76.5

There are occasional outliers but don't bet on promotion with 64 goals...

And of course, everyone on the above list who scored less than 70 conceded less than a goal a game - some as few as 30 odd. We aren't doing that without Maguire, and may not do it even with him.

 

[cooperblade]

Statistically, a clean sheet is more valuable than a goal in terms of the points it delivers. 0>1

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Interesting article from Laddies, tending to agree with the sceptics;

http://news.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/foo...-sheffield-utd-short-league-title_205697.html

 

[Lane Ender]

Why all the negativity and we have'nt even played a proper game yet.
The manager lives with the situation day in day out.
We all knew Harry was going and Clough made provisions signing good replacements in those areas.
I cant listen to comments about players abilities in practice matches.
This manager will progress the club and return us to our right place by playing football as it should be.
On the striker front i do believe he wanted Ogrady but he wont rush just to pacify the fans thats not his style.
So lets get a few league games before we make any judgments.

 

[alcoblade]

On the striker front i do believe he wanted Ogrady but he wont rush just to pacify the fans thats not his style.

I was right behind that a few months ago. Now, to be fair, he's got to have a bit of a rush on. We need a top striker before the season starts, unless we're happy to just be in the mi.

UTB

 

[Revolution]

Interesting article from Laddies, tending to agree with the sceptics;

http://news.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/foo...-sheffield-utd-short-league-title_205697.html

An acknowledgement from a neutral source that we have no forward line to speak of.

There is no good striker with a proven scoring record coming in. It's Chris Porter, a couple of kids and cross your fingers.

 

[JOEYDEE]

Just took this from Ladbrokes summary thingy,
3. There isn’t a double-figure goal scorer in the squad

What every self-respecting title-winning side needs in their team is a predatory goal scorer.

Unfortunately for the Blades that isn’t the case, with Chris Porter’s tally of seven in the league last term, the most of anyone on their books

Not since notorious striker Ched Evans chalked up 29 during 2011/12 has any striker in red and white hit over 15 league goals.
Sums us up at the moment

 

[Latters]

Interesting that nobody has really commented on the section on Clough's managerial record. I like Clough a lot. He comes across well in his interviews and he worked wonders for us last season after the massive mistake that was David Weir. I do, however, worry that we may be getting a little carried away with Cloughie's ability. He doesn't really have a track record of taking teams by the scruff of the neck and dragging them up the leagues, more one of steadying the ship and maintaining a level.

Derby are a decent sized club, so regular second-tier, mid-table finishes with them isn't really pulling any trees up. Add to this the fact that we have just sold one of our best players from last season ("reluctantly" or not, the result is the same) and we lost another two as soon as the season finished, but only seem to have signed squad fillers, and it is difficult to see why we are favourites.

Last season we had momentum on our side. The cup run, and the fans' affinity with players such as Brayford in particular helped this. This season we don't have that cult figure in the playing staff and, after a long summer, I am worried that the momentum may have been lost.

As I say, I like Clough, I was happy when we got him in as manager and his first season with us was excellent. I hope he picks up where he left off. But I said the same about Danny Wilson...

I still think we need two or three "game changing" signings to give us a real crack at promotion this season. If we re-invest the Maguire fee, then we will see that times are indeed changing for the better at the Lane, until that happens, I've yet to see any compelling evidence, other than better communication from the club, which doesn't win matches.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Interesting that nobody has really commented on the section on Clough's managerial record. I like Clough a lot. He comes across well in his interviews and he worked wonders for us last season after the massive mistake that was David Weir. I do, however, worry that we may be getting a little carried away with Cloughie's ability. He doesn't really have a track record of taking teams by the scruff of the neck and dragging them up the leagues, more one of steadying the ship and maintaining a level.

Derby are a decent sized club, so regular second-tier, mid-table finishes with them isn't really pulling any trees up. Add to this the fact that we have just sold one of our best players from last season ("reluctantly" or not, the result is the same) and we lost another two as soon as the season finished, but only seem to have signed squad fillers, and it is difficult to see why we are favourites.

Last season we had momentum on our side. The cup run, and the fans' affinity with players such as Brayford in particular helped this. This season we don't have that cult figure in the playing staff and, after a long summer, I am worried that the momentum may have been lost.

As I say, I like Clough, I was happy when we got him in as manager and his first season with us was excellent. I hope he picks up where he left off. But I said the same about Danny Wilson...

I still think we need two or three "game changing" signings to give us a real crack at promotion this season. If we re-invest the Maguire fee, then we will see that times are indeed changing for the better at the Lane, until that happens, I've yet to see any compelling evidence, other than better communication from the club, which doesn't win matches.

Agreed. He was in a no lose situation last season, we HAD to get better, the bonus was that we performed better than anyone expected in terms of results which has put us where we are now at the head of the bookies market.

He HAS to succeed this season which means he can't just try not to lose and pinch wins as and when, we need to be winning 2/3rds of our games which is a different pressure. Although he had no choice last season, it worries me slightly that we played under him as Derby fans said they played i.e. not to lose 1st and foremost so it will be interesting to see how we approach the opening games of the season.

There's another debate on pre-season games but Dundee apart we've struggled to put the ball away so the dreaded striker search is still the key factor. As Latters says, Danny Wilson failed to kick on 2nd season and to a certain extent, Blackwell was the same, let's hope NC bucks the recent trend.

 

[Darren]

Just took this from Ladbrokes summary thingy,
3. There isn’t a double-figure goal scorer in the squad

What every self-respecting title-winning side needs in their team is a predatory goal scorer.

Unfortunately for the Blades that isn’t the case, with Chris Porter’s tally of seven in the league last term, the most of anyone on their books

Not since notorious striker Ched Evans chalked up 29 during 2011/12 has any striker in red and white hit over 15 league goals.
Sums us up at the moment

We managed to get promoted with 3 games to spare in 05-06 with the top scorer being the far from predatory Neil Shipperley with 11.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

We managed to get promoted with 3 games to spare in 05-06 with the top scorer being the far from predatory Neil Shipperley with 11.

Who says statistics can prove anything

Baxter has around 25 goals in his career, Porters got about 15 in 4 seasons for us, it's difficult to see either of them topping HMS' total of 11, McNulty is an unknown and that's the problem. I can see the rest of the squad chipping in as they did in 05/06 but that 20 goal striker will make the difference.

 

[Darren]

Who says statistics can prove anything

Baxter has around 25 goals in his career, Porters got about 15 in 4 seasons for us, it's difficult to see either of them topping HMS' total of 11, McNulty is an unknown and that's the problem. I can see the rest of the squad chipping in as they did in 05/06 but that 20 goal striker will make the difference.

I am not saying that we don't know a forward; just querying the point that you need a Keith Edwards/Brian Deane type figure to go up.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

I am not saying that we don't know a forward; just querying the point that you need a Keith Edwards/Brian Deane type figure to go up.

True, but it's also arguable whether we've currently got a Neil Shipperley, Steve Kabba and Danny Webber.

 

[Darren]

True, but it's also arguable whether we've currently got a Neil Shipperley, Steve Kabba and Danny Webber.

Don't disagree with that.

The article itself is just very lazy. As someone else has pointed out, the 19 point gap theory is utter bollocks and Clough's record in managing an average second tier team would tend to be an argument in favour of getting a team out of the third tier than otherwise.

 

[Rossb123]

I honestly believe Leyton Orient should be title favourites, they are making some very good signings on top of the good squad they already have. John Lundstram, Shane Lowery and Jobi mcanuff will be excellent in this league and with them also set to sign Darius Henderson I think he will be another key signing.

All of them have championship experience, I wasn't a massive fan of Henderson when he was here but he definitely scared defenders with his sheer strength. There's no reason why we couldn't have brought him and Mcanuff in this season.......from the signings/ resignings we have made who would you prefer...... Campbell Ryce or Mcanuff? Chris Porter or Henderson? I know who I would prefer.

I'm not slating our Board or Clough for the signings/money we have spent because I think this summer has been quite productive but we have signed quantity and Orient look like they are bringing in quality.

 

[Westran]

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/league-one/startseite/wettbewerb/GB3

This gives an interesting spin on the bookies choice to put us favourites. Bristol with the most valuable squad in terms of transfer fees.

I really wouldn't want to guess about Uniteds finish,done that too many times. The bookies putting us favourites is down to the fact everyone is betting on us, mostly because of last seasons run. Partly Clough though. Hope he puls it off

 

[cooperblade]

Another season preview written by someone who is well respected in betting circles.

http://www.foxpunter.com/league-one-team-by-team/

Think his site will be well worth a read through the season

Sheff Utd

If Nigel Clough’s winning formula from February onwards is something he can tap into once again, then the rest of the division might be playing for second place. It’s a big if, but Clough isn’t the sort of bloke to let standards slip once he attains them and, all things considered, the Blades are worthy favourites for the title. If they capture John Brayford (although that looks increasingly unlikely) and pick up where they left off, then 100 points isn’t out of the question.

 

[Grecian2000]

The article itself is just very lazy. As someone else has pointed out, the 19 point gap theory is utter bollocks

It's a BETTING website, and from the studying of form point of view it isn't bollocks at all.

If this were a horse race we would have finished roughly 6 and a bit lengths behind Orient last time out (a length being equal to about 3lb's). If you're studying that particular piece of form (and remember this is for BETTING purposes and if you're looking to make money previous form is king and not "hunches") you would need to see a 19lb swing in your favour for you to think your horse stood a chance.
That's the bare statistics, if your a shrewd punter you would know our horse dwelt at the start but finished well and therefore probably only has to find 6lbs to turn the tables on a horse that was tiring at the finish.

As potential favourites in a BETTING market, have Orient lost that much ground to us that we should be lower odds than them in the market? I would suggest, at this moment, then no they haven't and so we are (in the BETTING world remember) too short a price and not a good value bet. That is the purpose of that article, aimed at betting people on a betting website.

 

[Darren]

It's a BETTING website, and from the studying of form point of view it isn't bollocks at all.

If this were a horse race we would have finished roughly 6 and a bit lengths behind Orient last time out (a length being equal to about 3lb's). If you're studying that particular piece of form (and remember this is for BETTING purposes and if you're looking to make money previous form is king and not "hunches") you would need to see a 19lb swing in your favour for you to think your horse stood a chance.
That's the bare statistics, if your a shrewd punter you would know our horse dwelt at the start but finished well and therefore probably only has to find 6lbs to turn the tables on a horse that was tiring at the finish.

As potential favourites in a BETTING market, have Orient lost that much ground to us that we should be lower odds than them in the market? I would suggest, at this moment, then no they haven't and so we are (in the BETTING world remember) too short a price and not a good value bet. That is the purpose of that article, aimed at betting people on a betting website.

Orient have far less resources than us. Last season they over acheived and we under acheived. I humbly suggest that the rational punter would expect a reversion to the norm this season and to that extent, last season's 19 point gap has little relevance.

 

[Grecian2000]

Orient have far less resources than us. Last season they over acheived and we under acheived. I humbly suggest that the rational punter would expect a reversion to the norm this season and to that extent, last season's 19 point gap has little relevance.

and the complete ignoring of form (i.e what actually happened) and betting based on perceived history (i.e what perhaps should have happened but actually didn't) is why you don't find a poor bookmaker.

Lump on Dazzler, the 5/1 is there for all to have a go at. As with last season (when I wouldn't touch us at under 20's) I'll stay clear until I like the look of the odds, and until we have more goals in us I wouldn't want any part of anything under 12/1.

 

[Gavlar]

It's a BETTING website, and from the studying of form point of view it isn't bollocks at all.

If this were a horse race we would have finished roughly 6 and a bit lengths behind Orient last time out (a length being equal to about 3lb's). If you're studying that particular piece of form (and remember this is for BETTING purposes and if you're looking to make money previous form is king and not "hunches") you would need to see a 19lb swing in your favour for you to think your horse stood a chance.
That's the bare statistics, if your a shrewd punter you would know our horse dwelt at the start but finished well and therefore probably only has to find 6lbs to turn the tables on a horse that was tiring at the finish.

As potential favourites in a BETTING market, have Orient lost that much ground to us that we should be lower odds than them in the market? I would suggest, at this moment, then no they haven't and so we are (in the BETTING world remember) too short a price and not a good value bet. That is the purpose of that article, aimed at betting people on a betting website.

I bet you enjoyed typing that post