The Run-in points predictor............

[Blend-it-like-Harris]

do you think we can lose 4 games and still finish in the autos

UTB

Yes - of course; if we win the other 7 we get 86 points.

 

[Blend-it-like-Harris]

We lost 9 games the season Bassett took us up in second place behind Leeds. Not 12.

Yes I know - but we got 84 points to go up in 2nd spot and the following season just 1 point more to go up with Leeds. My point was that Wilder, similar to Basset, plays shit-or-bust football. Unfortunately he didn't quite go that way in the derby but I still trust him to proceed to the end of season with that policy and we go up, though Leeds may have to wait till next season this time around!

If we lose another 4, we need to win the other 7, and that would give us 86 points.... beating both promotion totals of 84 in 1989/90 and 85 in 1990/91. Would you bet against it?

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

If we lose another 4, we need to win the other 7, and that would give us 86 points.... beating both promotion totals of 84 in 1989/90 and 85 in 1990/91. Would you bet against it?

Tufty always target wins but I suspect he's thinking if we win our home games that gives us 83 points and an excellent chance of top 2. A draw at Leeds and a couple of wins elsewhere and we'd be pretty much there. Now, just need to nail those wins at BDTBL

 

[blade too long]

I reckon 88 would ensure auto
Maybe one club breaking 90 points

As to who will do it
There's the rub

 

[Fulwood Blade]

Yes - of course; if we win the other 7 we get 86 points.

we can't lose 4 games and expect autos by winning the others.

Doubt 86 will be enough.

UTB

 

[Pilley-Blade]

Looking at past stats, it suggests that 87 points is the average needed to finish second and 93 is the most ever for second spot in the Championship. Blades can achieve 98 points, we would damn unlucky to only drop 6 points in the next 11 games and still not get second spot. Even with the average of 87, it gives us space for dropping 9 points and still in with a chance, but with the league so tight, you want 90.

 

[Blend-it-like-Harris]

we can't lose 4 games and expect autos by winning the others.

Doubt 86 will be enough.

I wasn't predicting we'd lose 4 and win 7, but trying to make the point that we'd gone up auto under Bassett having lost a dozen games because he played shit or bust football, and that Wilder was cut from similar cloth - go out to win every game.

I doubt very much we'll lose 4 of our remaining 11 games. I do think we'll win no less than 7 though, and I also think 86 points will be enough. Please don't hang me out to dry though if it all goes tits-up from here on in.

I thought before the season started we'd be top two. I had a right belly-laugh when I saw Deadbat's League predictions (especially Stoke City to win the League), so I'm certainly not going to change my opinion now just because we're a massive 2 points behind Super Leeds and 4 behind the all-conquering certs for Champions Norwich City.

Apologies for being such an optimist!

 

[Carlton Blade]

I think 85 could still be enough.

But I also think we are going to lose at least 1stupid home game. Millwall is my bet

 

[WORKSOPBLADE]

Chew on this one.

https://www.leeds-live.co.uk/sport/leeds-united/what-stats-say-leeds-united-15941100

 

[The Vicar]

8 wins required

 

[raimond]

Chew on this one.

https://www.leeds-live.co.uk/sport/leeds-united/what-stats-say-leeds-united-15941100

I've always thought ELO were shit but they rate us by the look of it

 

[Patrick Suffaux]

I think you’ll need 89 points for automatic promotion this season, 93 to win the division. Basing accrual of points on season averages Norwich would finish on 92, Leeds on 88. We’re currently tracking for 85 but have been steadily improving over the course of the season so I think 89 is achievable. Perhaps with our GD 88 would be enough?

When you look at how many wins are needed for Norwich and Leeds to reach those totals it’s quite conceivable. Leeds would only need 7 wins from 11 games so we need to go some to finish above them. It’s possible.

Basically we need 24 points I think, 8 wins.

 

[NotTheSharpest]

I think you’ll need 89 points for automatic promotion this season, 93 to win the division. Basing accrual of points on season averages Norwich would finish on 92, Leeds on 88. We’re currently tracking for 85 but have been steadily improving over the course of the season so I think 89 is achievable. Perhaps with our GD 88 would be enough?

When you look at how many wins are needed for Norwich and Leeds to reach those totals it’s quite conceivable. Leeds would only need 7 wins from 11 games so we need to go some to finish above them. It’s possible.

Basically we need 24 points I think, 8 wins.

All of this seems to suggest that if we take the points off Leeds then we are in pole position...... a big ask but I wouldn’t put it past us.

 

[Harry's Game]

We need to win 8.

Also we need to win both these next home games and hope Leeds drop points at Bristol or Hull. If we fail to take six points from the next two games and Leeds win both theirs it will probably be over.

Those four dropped points from winning positions against Villa and Rotherham away are possible auto killers.

 

[FYT]

We need to win 8.

Also we need to win both these next home games and hope Leeds drop points at Bristol or Hull. If we fail to take six points from the next two games and Leeds win both theirs it will probably be over.

Those four dropped points from winning positions against Villa and Rotherham away are possible auto killers.

Not to mention the dropped point at home to Leeds right at the death.

 

[dc_blade]

Not to mention the dropped point at home to Leeds right at the death.

Yes, we cost ourselves one point and gave them two. That might be the difference in the end.

 

[Fulwood Blade]

Looking back at what has happened, we can all look at the silly games that has cost us points. Those have gone, we can only effect what's coming.

The season we dropped out of the prem - that last game v Wigan and all the excuses we put on it. For those that saw that season, how about the stupid penalty Paddy gave away when we played Everton at home - that was a daft loss of two points what would have made all the difference.

All we can effect is games going forward.

Today, we try and put Rotherham to bed and as well as 3 points if we can get 3+ goals, it helps with the goal difference. We should try and put the difference up so if it comes down to that last few games of the season it's one less thing to be concerned about. If goal difference is in our favour it may mean the difference (as an example) of going to Stoke needing just a point instead of winning.

Again back to the Wigan season - goal difference was what sent us down in the end.

UTB

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Updated after the weekend

Based on season average:

Norwich 92
Leeds 89.44
Blades 86.89
WBA 77.94
Boro 76.23
Brizzle 70.97
FLD 70.28

Pigs 62.61


Based on the more volatile form guide (last 8):

Norwich 95.75
Blades 90.50
Leeds 90
WBA 74.75
Boro 74.50
Brizzle 71.88
Pigs 66.50
FLD 66.25

 

[grafikhaus]

Looking back at what has happened, we can all look at the silly games that has cost us points. Those have gone, we can only effect what's coming.

True. We can look back on Hendo's error v Leeds, the last-minute equaliser at Rotherham, the missed penalty v the pigs, the 3 late goals at Villa etc. Fact is, no team has a perfect season or they'd get 138 points. Whatever happens, we've had a bloody good season.

 

[Tynemouth Blade]

The one stat for promotion you're all missing is our own promotion talisman Oliver Norwood, who is on for a hat trick of promotions from the Championship this year!

 

[WORKSOPBLADE]

Another missing when either season averages or form guides are used is the fact that teams will play each other in the last 10 games. So the teams meeting cannot both maintain either “average “.

The “strange” result period of the season will be soon upon us when pressure affects some and sudden motivation at the wrong end of the table affects others. I’d rather we played lower ranked teams at home, which we have.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Another missing when either season averages or form guides are used is the fact that teams will play each other in the last 10 games. So the teams meeting cannot both maintain either “average “.

The “strange” result period of the season will be soon upon us when pressure affects some and sudden motivation at the wrong end of the table affects others. I’d rather we played lower ranked teams at home, which we have.

The only time they both can't maintain their average is when only games between them are left, otherwise they still can;

Team A averages 2 pts a game
Team B averages 2 pts a game

Team A beats Teams C and D but loses to Team B, average 2pts
Team B beats teams A and D but loses to C, average 2pts.

 

[WORKSOPBLADE]

The only time they both can't maintain their average is when only games between them are left, otherwise they still can;

Team A averages 2 pts a game
Team B averages 2 pts a game

Team A beats Teams C and D but loses to Team B, average 2pts
Team B beats teams A and D but loses to C, average 2pts.

If teams C and/or D average 2pts in either “table” also your theory is disproved.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

If teams C and/or D average 2pts in either “table” also your theory is disproved.

OK then, replace with Teams L and M which are both rubbish but manage one of your unexpected results against Team B

 

[WORKSOPBLADE]

OK then, replace with Teams L and M which are both rubbish but manage one of your unexpected results against Team B

True. As the saying goes lies,dammed lies and statistics !

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

True. As the saying goes lies,dammed lies and statistics !

Yep, as said elsewhere, we can analyse as much as we want, it's a rough guideline as to where we are and where we could be but just that.

 

[Greenwich Blade]

I've always thought ELO were shit but they rate us by the look of it

After reading that, I Can't Get It Out Of My Head.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Updated after the midweek games. Before anyone gets twitchy about the 2nd list, there would be another 5 clubs in and around Brizzle>Pigs if I included them all

Based on season average:

Norwich 93.24
Leeds 90.76
Blades 88.27
WBA 79.57
Boro 74.11
Brizzle 70.28
FLD 69.62

Pigs 64.65


Based on the more volatile form guide (last 8):

Norwich 98.63
Blades 93.50
Leeds 91.00
WBA 79.75
Boro 71.75
Brizzle 68.75
Pigs 67.75
FLD 66.13

 

[lakedistblade]

So second or third still a toss up. That's just how it feels. How critical is getting a result Saturday.COYRAWW.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

So second or third still a toss up. That's just how it feels. How critical is getting a result Saturday.COYRAWW.

Yep, obviously it gets more accurate as the weeks go on, still in our own hands

2 play-off places look secure but after that, there's at least 10 clubs who could nick 5th and 6th.