BalticBlade
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- Joined
- Feb 10, 2023
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I woke up this morning convinced we’re doomed to…
To lift myself from the mire , and inspired by the excellent work of ucandomagic, I decided to take a close look at the run-in of the last 10 Championsip seasons (I couldn’t be arsed to look at any more than that and I believe 10 seasons is a big enough sample). Apologies, unlike the aforementioned ucandomagic, there are no fancy graphs from me.
The methodology is a bit skewed by the fact we’ve got 15 more matches to play and Boro have 14.
Last 14 matches of the last 10 seasons
The most points a team has amassed during the last 14 matches of any of the last 10 campaigns was Leeds with 37 points in 2019/20. If Boro were to match this they would finish the season on 91 points
The average number of points gained over the last 14 games by the team with the best run in during this period 32.9 points. If you round that up to 33* and Boro hit that average they will finish on 87 points.
(*The median points number for the team who gained most points from each of the last 10 seasons is also 33)
The above is all assuming that Boro have the best run in of any team in the Championship between now and the season (which may or may not happen).
Now, Boro’s good run actually dates back to game week 16 of the season, so if we rewind each of the past 10 Championship seasons to that point and then see what happens from there this is what we find…
The most points gained between match 16 and the end of the season was 70 points, by Leicester in 2013/14. For any team to better that this season would be some achievement, so let’s assume Boro will at best equal Leicester’s tally. Boro have gained 38 points since GW which means to equal what Leicester did they would need a further 32 points. At the end of the season they would have 86 points. If Boro were to finish on more than 86 points they would have had the best final two thirds to a Championship season of any team in more than 10 years. The balance of probability would say 86 (or there abouts, is their ceiling).
The last 15 matches of the last 10 seasons
So we’ve looked at how Boro might fare (and assumed they’ll have a better run-in thaan anyone else). Now, let’s look at what might happen to us - to do this we have to look at 15 game run-ins over the last decade.
We’ve got 15 matches left. The most points we’ve gained over 15 matches this season was between GW 17 and 31 - 36 points. If we were to match this form in the remaining 15 games we’d end the season on 97 points.
Our poorest 15 game run was GW3 to GW17 - 23 points. If were to finish the season in that form we’d have 84 points.
Our rolling 15 game average is 30.4 points (rounding it down this would leave us on 91 points).
Our 15 match medium is 27/28. Rounding that down we’d finish the season on 87 points.
From our last 15 matches last season we totalled 23 points (7th best in the league). If we equalled that we’d finish on 84 points.
From the last 15 games of our 2018/19 promotion season we got 34 points. Matching that would give us 95 points.
Our only other season in the Championship in the last decade was 2017/18 where we got 20 points from the final 15 matches. If we matched that this time around we’d finish on 81 points.
For the purposes of this exercise we’ve assumed Boro will have the best run-in, so let’s assume we’ll have (at best) the third most points from the final 15 games.
Looking at the Final 15 matches Championship league table for each of the last 10 shows us…
The teams finishing 3rd in the Final 15 matches Championship league table average 30.2 points. This would leave us on 91 points. The best was 32 points (which would leave us on 93 points) and the worst 26 (we’d finish on 89 points).
The teams finishing 4th in the Final 15 matches Championship league table average 28 points (which would see us get to 89 points). The best was 30 (91 points for us) and the worst 25 points (we’d finish on 86pts).
If we’re the 5th best team between now and the end of the season, if the last 10 seasons are anything to go by, we’d be looking at a further 25-28 points, giving us a final tally of 86-89 points.
If we’re the 6th or 7th best team over the last 15 matches we can look to pick up 23-26 more points, based on recent history. That would see us end the season somewhere between 84 and 87 points.
If we come 8th in this run-in league table we should get around 22-25 more points given us a final points total for the season of 83-86 points.
I didn’t look any lower than that.
My conclusions?
We don’t need to be the best, second or even third best team in the run-in to get automatic promotion. Even if we have the fourth or fifth best run in that will probably be enough (even if Boro’s good form continues). But in all likelihood it’sm going to be very tight.
I’m going for a lie down now!
- Miss out on promotion
- Lose all our best players this summer in a massive firesale
- Go into administration
- Be handed a points deduction
- Freefall through the leagues
To lift myself from the mire , and inspired by the excellent work of ucandomagic, I decided to take a close look at the run-in of the last 10 Championsip seasons (I couldn’t be arsed to look at any more than that and I believe 10 seasons is a big enough sample). Apologies, unlike the aforementioned ucandomagic, there are no fancy graphs from me.
The methodology is a bit skewed by the fact we’ve got 15 more matches to play and Boro have 14.
Last 14 matches of the last 10 seasons
The most points a team has amassed during the last 14 matches of any of the last 10 campaigns was Leeds with 37 points in 2019/20. If Boro were to match this they would finish the season on 91 points
The average number of points gained over the last 14 games by the team with the best run in during this period 32.9 points. If you round that up to 33* and Boro hit that average they will finish on 87 points.
(*The median points number for the team who gained most points from each of the last 10 seasons is also 33)
The above is all assuming that Boro have the best run in of any team in the Championship between now and the season (which may or may not happen).
Now, Boro’s good run actually dates back to game week 16 of the season, so if we rewind each of the past 10 Championship seasons to that point and then see what happens from there this is what we find…
The most points gained between match 16 and the end of the season was 70 points, by Leicester in 2013/14. For any team to better that this season would be some achievement, so let’s assume Boro will at best equal Leicester’s tally. Boro have gained 38 points since GW which means to equal what Leicester did they would need a further 32 points. At the end of the season they would have 86 points. If Boro were to finish on more than 86 points they would have had the best final two thirds to a Championship season of any team in more than 10 years. The balance of probability would say 86 (or there abouts, is their ceiling).
The last 15 matches of the last 10 seasons
So we’ve looked at how Boro might fare (and assumed they’ll have a better run-in thaan anyone else). Now, let’s look at what might happen to us - to do this we have to look at 15 game run-ins over the last decade.
We’ve got 15 matches left. The most points we’ve gained over 15 matches this season was between GW 17 and 31 - 36 points. If we were to match this form in the remaining 15 games we’d end the season on 97 points.
Our poorest 15 game run was GW3 to GW17 - 23 points. If were to finish the season in that form we’d have 84 points.
Our rolling 15 game average is 30.4 points (rounding it down this would leave us on 91 points).
Our 15 match medium is 27/28. Rounding that down we’d finish the season on 87 points.
From our last 15 matches last season we totalled 23 points (7th best in the league). If we equalled that we’d finish on 84 points.
From the last 15 games of our 2018/19 promotion season we got 34 points. Matching that would give us 95 points.
Our only other season in the Championship in the last decade was 2017/18 where we got 20 points from the final 15 matches. If we matched that this time around we’d finish on 81 points.
For the purposes of this exercise we’ve assumed Boro will have the best run-in, so let’s assume we’ll have (at best) the third most points from the final 15 games.
Looking at the Final 15 matches Championship league table for each of the last 10 shows us…
The teams finishing 3rd in the Final 15 matches Championship league table average 30.2 points. This would leave us on 91 points. The best was 32 points (which would leave us on 93 points) and the worst 26 (we’d finish on 89 points).
The teams finishing 4th in the Final 15 matches Championship league table average 28 points (which would see us get to 89 points). The best was 30 (91 points for us) and the worst 25 points (we’d finish on 86pts).
If we’re the 5th best team between now and the end of the season, if the last 10 seasons are anything to go by, we’d be looking at a further 25-28 points, giving us a final tally of 86-89 points.
If we’re the 6th or 7th best team over the last 15 matches we can look to pick up 23-26 more points, based on recent history. That would see us end the season somewhere between 84 and 87 points.
If we come 8th in this run-in league table we should get around 22-25 more points given us a final points total for the season of 83-86 points.
I didn’t look any lower than that.
My conclusions?
We don’t need to be the best, second or even third best team in the run-in to get automatic promotion. Even if we have the fourth or fifth best run in that will probably be enough (even if Boro’s good form continues). But in all likelihood it’sm going to be very tight.
I’m going for a lie down now!
