The Run-in points predictor............

[DifferentClass]

See L**ds doing their annual bottle job. They didn't look too convincing against Notlob yesterday by all accounts.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

See L**ds doing their annual bottle job. They didn't look too convincing against Notlob yesterday by all accounts.

big 2/3 weeks for them, 5 fixtures, WBA, Brizzle and us to play

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

We might be able to drop FLD soon

Based on season average:

Norwich 89
Leeds 89
Blades 87
WBA 81
Boro 79
Brizzle 76
FLD 71

Based on the more volatile form guide (last 8):

Norwich 92
Brizzle 90
Blades 90
Leeds 85
Boro 81
WBA 81
FLD 66

 

[leichhardtblade]

Based on the more volatile form guide (last 8):

Norwich 92
Brizzle 90
Blades 90
Leeds 85
Boro 81
WBA 81
FLD 66

And wouldn't we be above Leeds on goal difference there?

 

[Sid1978]

And wouldn't we be above Leeds on goal difference there?

No. Above Leeds by 5 points.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

And wouldn't we be above Leeds on goal difference there?

Presuming you mean Brizzle, strictly speaking they're ahead of us on that list by 0.25 pts

 

[leichhardtblade]

No. Above Leeds by 5 points.

Jetlag. I'm blaming jetlag.

 

[Sparky The Blade]

The thing is though, everyone else has to play at least one of the top 6 as well. Add to that that you get strange results from here on in anyway as lower teams invariably start picking up unexpected points.

Saw these stats yesterday, current average oppostion placings for run-in, Brizzle's would seem to be the hardest and you'd expect them not to keep up their run anyway;

Norwich 14.76
Leeds 12.85
Blades 12.86
WBA 12.76
Brizzle 10.87
Boro 14.07
FLD 13.86

It looks quite different when you use home and away records. Makes good reading for Blades.

https://www.whoscored.com/Articles/...Who-has-the-easiest-and-most-difficult-run-in

 

[Booker4]

I've got us to finish on 88 points but that included losing to West Brom, as I did the predictions before the Boro game - which I had to win, and Reading. So as it stands, we're all set to reach 90 points if my calculations come true! Ha ha! That will hopefully do us. Norwich have an easy run in, but in the last few weeks you don't want to be playing teams in and around the relegation zone - unless there already relegated - which I bet Ipswich will be when we play them. Teams at the bottom tend to pick up points around that time that they wouldn't previously.

Biela's teams are supposed to dip after near the end according to football expert who have followed his previous teams, I seem to recall. They also didn't sign anyone where they needed to in January and have lost Roofe or course.

Also, United's pre January form is less of a guide then our post January form, because we've signed three players since who are making a huge difference, whereas Leeds and Norwich didn't strengthen, not really, and West Brom are a team of good players but, haven't put a consistent run to hold a top two spot all season. Then they lost to us of course. A draw at Elland Road would do nicely I think between those two.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Updated following those two great results last night I've added a couple of decimals rather than rounding to make it bit more precise (yes, someone did message me about this) I've also added another team for those starting to get twitchy

Based on season average:

Norwich 89.29
Blades 86.59 (ahead on GD )
Leeds 86.59
WBA 81.18
Boro 79.45
Brizzle 73.88
FLD 71.09
Pigs 63.59

Based on the more volatile form guide (last 8):

Norwich 91.5
Blades 89.5
Leeds 83.5
Brizzle 82.25
Boro 81.38
WBA 81
Pigs 69.5
FLD 65.63

 

[boss hog]

Is it me or is all this utterly pointless.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Is it me or is all this utterly pointless.

dunno, start a poll

 

[8lade]

I'll settle for that scenario right now.

What United going from 1st to 3rd on the last day, when it would take a monumental collapse for us not to make the play offs as things stand?
Either you didn't understand the scenario or you are just plain daft.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

FLD were in danger if being removed but they clung on last night.

Based on season average:

Norwich 90.69
Leeds 88.06
Blades 85.43
WBA 78.86
Boro 78.47
Brizzle 73.06
FLD 70.97
Pigs 63.09

Based on the more volatile form guide (last 8):

Norwich 95.13
Blades 85.63
Leeds 84.88
Boro 80.50
Brizzle 78
WBA 77.88
FLD 69.13
Pigs 68.63

 

[Booker4]

This weekends huge for me. Obviously we need to beat Rotherham, but what Leeds do at Bristol is almost of the same importance, because if they win away at Bristol, after spanking West Brom, I fear they'll go on a run of a few games. But if Bristol draw or beat Leeds the momentum from the West Brom game is less. I do fear that their win v West Brom could be a pivotal point in their season, but Bristol away is a tough game to follow.

I've virtually given up on Norwich dropping many points with their run in and current form.

 

[Blend-it-like-Harris]

Chill out folks - sit back and enjoy the ride; we're going up. Still got 4 defeats in hand to equal Bassett's similar shit-or-bust promotion.

 

[Fulwood Blade]

Chill out folks - sit back and enjoy the ride; we're going up. Still got 4 defeats in hand to equal Bassett's similar shit-or-bust promotion.

do you think we can lose 4 games and still finish in the autos

UTB

 

[Seth Rollins]

Chill out folks - sit back and enjoy the ride; we're going up. Still got 4 defeats in hand to equal Bassett's similar shit-or-bust promotion.

We lost 9 games the season Bassett took us up in second place behind Leeds. Not 12.

 

[Silent Blade]

Chill out folks - sit back and enjoy the ride; we're going up. Still got 4 defeats in hand to equal Bassett's similar shit-or-bust promotion.

That was in 1988-89 when we were in 3rd division

 

[YorkBlade]

If we go up this season we keep JOC and might have a fair chance of Hendo either resigning on loan or signing permanently but mostly I'd be excited to see how 'Wilderball' works in the Premier League. It would be nice to shake things up and prove to the big boys that you don't need to spend millions or have 9 foreign players in your starting 11 to compete. Promotion will help with our appeal to a potential new owner, the Prince will smell money and I'm sure want to sell and forget he ever had any involvement.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

If we go up this season we keep JOC and might have a fair chance of Hendo either resigning on loan or signing permanently but mostly I'd be excited to see how 'Wilderball' works in the Premier League. It would be nice to shake things up and prove to the big boys that you don't need to spend millions or have 9 foreign players in your starting 11 to compete. Promotion will help with our appeal to a potential new owner, the Prince will smell money and I'm sure want to sell and forget he ever had any involvement.

Smell money, they get a cheque for about £120M immediately don't they

I doubt there's ever been a squad made up of entirely UK and Irish players, well not in this century anyway, the likes of Oldham etc might have had back in the day.

 

[Bladesman]

If we go up this season we keep JOC and might have a fair chance of Hendo either resigning on loan or signing permanently but mostly I'd be excited to see how 'Wilderball' works in the Premier League. It would be nice to shake things up and prove to the big boys that you don't need to spend millions or have 9 foreign players in your starting 11 to compete. Promotion will help with our appeal to a potential new owner, the Prince will smell money and I'm sure want to sell and forget he ever had any involvement.

I think Bournemouth have proved it’s possible. They seem to have a good balance.

I know they have money to spend but they stuck with most of the squad that got them there. It’s only recently where they have started to slowly replace those players.

Fulham are proving why you don’t throw the squad in the bin and replace when you get promoted.

 

[BushBlade]

Is it me or is all this utterly pointless.

My mate’s done his own spreadsheet. I asked him why didn’t you just use one of the predictor sites: ‘I wanted to make my own’. Why? It’s still just guessing.

 

[SHOREHAMST.com]

https://thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php

I used this one earlier. Let’s you select only the teams you want. First time round we finished third. I then realised I’d predicted us, Leeds and Norwich to draw way too many of the remaining games. Had a play around and we were still third. I then changed a draw to a win at Stoke on the final day and we won the league.

It’s gonna be some run in and one I’d be very envious of if we weren’t involved. I’m going to try and prepare myself for the play offs.

 

[Topplayersleave]

I'm glad FLDC won, we need a bit of consistency from Derby, Brizzle, Scabs, Villa, Brum for the next few games to finally kill off the deluded

 

[I should coco]

used this one earlier. Let’s you select only the teams you want. First time round we finished third. I then realised I’d predicted us, Leeds and Norwich to draw way too many of the remaining games. Had a play around and we were still third. I then changed a draw to a win at Stoke on the final day and we won the league.

I've got the top 6 close to the same order as now.
1 Norwich 96
2 Leeds 90
3 Sheffield Utd 86
4 Middlesbrough 82
5 West Brom 81
6 Bristol City 73

Norwich just seem to have more obviously winnable fixtures but I surprised myself by the number of draws I gave everybody.

Pigs on 67 points so a miniscule gap of just 19 points.

 

[bibbity bobbity boo]

1 Norwich 46 +41 96
2 Leeds 46 +31 90
3 Sheffield Utd 46 +35 89
4 West Brom 46 +31 87
5 Middlesbrough 46 +25 84
6 Derby 46 +8 74


Pigs to finish 14th on 63 points

I just can't see Norwich fucking it up, they seem to be constantly lucky and grind out wins without being overly spectacular (apart from when they bummed Leeds)

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

I can't see 2 teams getting 90 or more this season (average at least 2 pts a game for the remainder), OK you can try and analyse the fixtures and say one run-in is easier than another but 'lower' teams traditionally start picking up unexpected points from here on in and there's 7 or 8 teams including the likes of Forest, PNE, Villa, Brum etc who will still think they can sneak into the play-offs.

It may well be that 86pts might be good enough this season.

 

[I should coco]

I can't see 2 teams getting 90 or more this season (average at least 2 pts a game for the remainder),

It may well be that 86pts might be good enough this season.

I thought that too mate, but when I picked the top 7 and put results in I was surprised by the gap between us and the top 2. I tried it again allowing their predictions with no input from me and it still came out Norwich 96 pts, DirtyLeeds 91 and us on 86.

We can make auto but we need a good run of form. Sadly I think draws with DirtyLeeds, Preston, Brizzle, Brum and Stoke will derail us.

 

[Blend-it-like-Harris]

That was in 1988-89 when we were in 3rd division

Yes I know - but we got 84 points to go up in 2nd spot and the following season just 1 point more to go up with Leeds. My point was that Wilder, similar to Basset, plays shit-or-bust football. Unfortunately he didn't quite go that way in the derby but I still trust him to proceed to the end of season with that policy and we go up, though Leeds may have to wait till next season this time around!