The Numbers Thread (Will Be Updated After Each Game)

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Unless we get a points deduction, the lowest position we can now finish is 6th, hence we have achieved a play-off place without even playing.

Now wouldn't it be nice if we achieved automatic promotion in a similar manner ...............
 



travellingblade said:
Unless we get a points deduction, the lowest position we can now finish is 6th, hence we have achieved a play-off place without even playing.

Now wouldn't it be nice if we achieved automatic promotion in a similar manner ...............
Click to expand...

I'd have to say no. I'd rather we won promotion at home against Stevenage or Orient personally...
 
Battle resumed today with wins for the automatic chasers. Wednesday continued their outstanding run, which United can better if we beat Rochdale next week and Charlton returned to winning ways.

For the play off chasers Huddersfield finally dropped in and it seems inconceivable now they can get automatic promotion. As for the others MK now look susceptible with a range of clubs in with a realistic chance of getting 5th and 6th spot.

The updated 6 game form predictor indicates the following final table points total. As previously the previous points totals are in brackets:

Charlton 96 (92-90-95-94)
United 94 (93-89-84-82)
Wednesday 93 (90)
Huddersfield 82 (85-84-87-83-82)
Brentford 75 (71-67-65-59-53)
Carlisle 75 (78-77-72-75-76)
MK Dons 73 (75-76-79-83-81)
Notts Co 71 (68-66-69-76)
Stevenage 64 (68-69-69-69-68)
Colchester 58 (58-63-66-67)

The effect of today’s results is to move Charlton back to the champions slot and MK Dons out of the play off picture to be replaced by Brentford.

Based on the season’s average ppg (as opposed to the current form) the out turn looks like

Charlton 99 (98)
United 92 (91)
Wednesday 90 (89)
Huddersfield 83 (85)
MK Dons 76 (77)
Carlisle 75 (75)
Notts Co 71 (69)
Brentford 70 (68)
Stevenage 68 (70)
Colchester 61 (61)

As for performance against the seasons average we can see how current form (last 6 games) compares against the seasons form and which sides are doing better or worse than their current season's average. Figures in brackets are a comparison with the best and worst previous fixtures performance over the last few weeks.

Charlton 78% (55%-77%)
United 117% (118%-69%)
Wednesday 137% (123%-139%)
Huddersfield 92% (107%-91%)
Brentford 165% (136%-104%)
Carlisle 103% (125%-96%)
MK Dons 60% (78%-85%)
Notts Co 108% (89%-113%)
Stevenage 56% (88%-87%)
Colchester 63% (62%-97%)
 
I think Hudds are now out of it.

I also think that the Wendy win was a blow to (my) confidence, i was sure they would drop points and was kind of expecting to have a bit of a cushion having beaten Bournemouth.

Nevertheless, win or draw at Rochdale and we are still second.

We can afford 1 slip up, and still be within one game of second. They can't. Pressure is still on them, (until they beat Oldham of course).

Rochdale then Oriant or Oldahm then Colchester. Neither an easy set of fixtures, but I expect both team will be looking to take 6 points from them...
 
BladeFisher said:
It wont be enough mate, 92/93 will be needed unless Wdnesday or United drop points.
Click to expand...

It is looking like 3rd will get a large number of points and not go up. In the last 10 years no third place team has got more that 87 points. I expect us or Wednesday to beat that now...we of course only need 2 more wins to do so....
 
Assuming we get above 90, will that be a record points total for utd?
 
I probably won't be able to do my usual update until Monday I'm afraid, very limited internet access at the moment!
 
people give too much creedance to huddersfield , on reflection theyve only won 4 of their last 10 v 10 man charlton , exeter chesterfield and fast falling orient, theyve been indifferent at best under grayson
Wednesdays biggest tasks will be to overcome Brentford 2nd in the form table as they chase 6th and carlisle
and unbeaten in 7 Wycombe really are fighting for their lives
 
blade too long said:
I dont , theyll lose at brentford and draw with carlisle
Click to expand...


Which will still give them 90 points.

It seems fairly certain to me that 87 points will not be enough to secure second place. Probably 90 or more will be required.
 



They won't win at Colchester or Brentford. They'll drop at least a point from their 3 remaining home games. We will drop points as well. There will be surprise results, maybe even starting tomorrow.

Odd things happen. That's football! I accept 87 is now unlikely to be enough but don't rule it out.
 
'we will win 4 and draw 1 , be plenty' ​

If we do that we will go up automatically, unless Wednesday win all 5 of their remaining games and also add 12 more to their goal difference than we do - which I think we can safely say is pretty unlikely!
 
Just remember, if shit can happen it does, relegation from premier league for instance. I am less than confident, history, as a blades supporter has taught me that much. Sorry or being so negative, had too much disappointment as a ladies supporter to be anything else.
 
believe it or not we have had some good days you know
Im sure we didnt lose 1-5 at home to cardiff
dont remember losing 5;2 at leicester and blowing it
or getting beat 1-0 at cardiff
to name a few

lets realise we are a good team , and more to the point better than who we have left to play
 
That's the spirit! I was just talking to somebody about this at lunchtime. What we think will go down to the wire will, by the end of the Exeter game, seem comfortable.
 
dingledog said:
Just remember, if shit can happen it does, relegation from premier league for instance. I am less than confident, history, as a blades supporter has taught me that much. Sorry or being so negative, had too much disappointment as a ladies supporter to be anything else.
Click to expand...
That last sentence made me lol
 
Well after Easter Monday’s results it appears nearly all over for the champions slot in League One and the real interest is who goes up automatically and who gets 5th and 6th place.

Wednesday won as predicted but the concern has to be that teams that were on bad runs have got better e.g. MK and teams doing well have started to dip e.g. Carlisle and Colchester. Sadly we play the former and Wednesday play the latter. Are they ever going to drop points?

The updated 6 game form predictor indicates the following final table points total. As previously the previous points totals are in brackets:

Charlton 100 (96-92-90-95-94)
United 94 (93-89-84-82)
Wednesday 94 (93-90)
Huddersfield 80 (82-85-84-87-83-82)
MK Dons 76 (73-75-76-79-83-81)
Brentford 74 (75-71-67-65-59-53)
Carlisle 74 (75-78-77-72-75-76)
Notts Co 73 (71-68-66-69-76)
Stevenage 64 (68-69-69-69-68)
Colchester 57 (58-63-66-67)

The effect of today’s results is to virtually confirm Charlton as champions and open up 6th place in the play offs.

Based on the season’s average ppg (as opposed to the current form) the out turn looks like

Charlton 100 (99)
United 92 (91)
Wednesday 91 (90)
Huddersfield 81 (83)
MK Dons 78 (76)
Carlisle 74 (75)
Notts Co 72 (71)
Brentford 69 (70)
Stevenage 67 (68)
Colchester 59 (61)

As for performance against the seasons average we can see how current form (last 6 games) compares against the seasons form and which sides are doing better or worse than their current season's average. Figures in brackets are a comparison with the best and worst previous fixtures performance over the last few weeks.

Charlton 100% (55%-78%)
United 117% (118%-69%)
Wednesday 135% (123%-139%)
Huddersfield 85% (107%-91%)
MK Dons 79% (78%-85%)
Brentford 178% (165%-104%)
Carlisle 104% (125%-96%)
Notts Co 106% (89%-113%)
Stevenage 57% (88%-87%)Colchester 52% (62%-97%)

At last a team out playing Wednesday and it is dear old Brentford. Can they keep it up for another fortnight – we shall see. We might need them to do us a massive favour!
 
Charlton
- 4 Games to Play (Average Pos 14th, Average Form 11th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 5 = 1.25 PPG (1 win, 2 draws. 1 left)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 1 = 0.23 PPG (1 draw, 3 left)
- Champions Magic Number: 7 = 1.75 PPG (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 left)

Sheff Utd
- 5 Games to Play (Average Pos 16th, Average Form 20th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 14 = 2.80 PPG (Impossible from 5 Games)
-'Real' Top 2 Magic Number: 15 = 3.00 PPG (5 wins)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 10 = 1.98 PPG (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 left)

Sheff Wed
- 4 Games to Play (Average Pos 12th, Average Form 8th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 15 = 3.75 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 10 = 2.50 PPG (3 wins, 1 draw)

Huddersfield
- 4 Games to Play (Average Pos 16th, Average Form 11th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 24 = 6.00 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 19 = 4.75 PPG (Out of their hands)

MK Dons
- 4 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 10th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 27 = 6.75 PPG (Impossible)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 22 = 5.50 PPG (Out of their hands)

Carlisle
- 5 games to Play (Average Pos 11th, Average Form 13th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 32 = 6.40 PPG (Impossible)
-Top 2 Projected Number: 27 = 5.40 PPG (Out of their hands)

Stevenage
- 5 Games to Play (Average Pos 10th, Average Form 9th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 38 = 7.60 PPG (Impossible)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 33 = 6.60 PPG (Impossible)

Notts County
- 4 Games to Play (Average Pos 14th, Average Form 12th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 32 = 8.00 PPG (Impossible)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 27 = 6.75 PPG (Impossible)


Max Possible Points

Charlton - 103
Sheff Utd - 97
Wednesday - 95
Huddersfield - 86
MK Dons - 83
Carlisle - 81
Notts County - 78
Stevenage - 75

Projected Points

Charlton - 100
Sheff Utd - 92
Wednesday - 91
Huddersfield - 81
MK Dons - 78
Carlisle - 74
Notts County - 72
Stevenage - 67

Form Scores

Sheff Wed - 7.00
Charlton - 6.23
Sheff Utd - 6.13
Notts County - 5.83
Carlisle - 5.42
MK Dons - 4.83
Huddersfield - 4.31
Stevenage - 2.64
 
The Blades finally step up to the plate with a first half demolition job on relegation threatened Rochdale with a 5-2 win.

The effect of tonight’s result is to push United’s form up on a par with Wednesday’s, which is what is needed. The main issue now is surely Ched.

The updated 6 game form predictor indicates the following final table points total. As previously the previous points totals are in brackets:

Charlton 100 (96-92-90-95-94)
United 96 (94-93-89-84-82)
Wednesday 94 (93-90)
Huddersfield 80 (82-85-84-87-83-82)
MK Dons 76 (73-75-76-79-83-81)
Brentford 74 (75-71-67-65-59-53)
Carlisle 74 (75-78-77-72-75-76)
Notts Co 73 (71-68-66-69-76)
Stevenage 64 (68-69-69-69-68)
Colchester 57 (58-63-66-67)

The effect of today’s results is to virtually confirm Charlton as champions and open up 6th place in the play offs.

Based on the season’s average ppg (as opposed to the current form) the out turn looks like

Charlton 100 (99)
United 93 (92)
Wednesday 91 (90)
Huddersfield 81 (83)
MK Dons 78 (76)
Carlisle 74 (75)
Notts Co 72 (71)
Brentford 69 (70)
Stevenage 67 (68)
Colchester 59 (61)

As for performance against the seasons average we can see how current form (last 6 games) compares against the seasons form and which sides are doing better or worse than their current season's average. Figures in brackets are a comparison with the best and worst previous fixtures performance over the last few weeks.

Charlton 100% (55%-78%)
United 132% (118%-69%)
Wednesday 135% (123%-139%)
Huddersfield 85% (107%-91%)
MK Dons 79% (78%-85%)
Brentford 178% (165%-104%)
Carlisle 104% (125%-96%)
Notts Co 106% (89%-113%)
Stevenage 57% (88%-87%)Colchester 52% (62%-97%)

United are now playing nearly a third better than the season’s average. Looks like it now largely depends on Ched and the court.
 
We cannot get 96 points
We now have 85 points with 4 games to go.
Win all 4 and we have 97
Win 3 and draw one gives us 95
Win three and lose one gives us 94
Win 2 and draw 2 gives us 93
 
I was accidentally using some outdated numbers last time - here's a proper update after getting back from Rochdale :D

Charlton
- 4 Games to Play (Average Pos 14th, Average Form 13th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 5 = 1.25 PPG (1 win, 2 draws. 1 left)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 1 = 0.23 PPG (1 draw, 3 left)
- Champions Magic Number: 7 = 1.75 PPG (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 left)

Sheff Utd
- 4 Games to Play (Average Pos 14th, Average Form 18th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 11 = 2.75 PPG (Impossible from 4 Games)
-'Real' Top 2 Magic Number: 12 = 3.00 PPG (4 wins)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 7 = 1.73 PPG (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 left)

Sheff Wed
- 4 Games to Play (Average Pos 12th, Average Form 10th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 15 = 3.75 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 11 = 2.77 PPG (Impossible from 4 Games)
-'Real' Top 2 Projected Number: 12 = 3.00 PPG (4 wins)

Huddersfield
- 4 Games to Play (Average Pos 16th, Average Form 12th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 24 = 6.00 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 20 = 5.02 PPG (Out of their hands)

MK Dons
- 4 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 9th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 27 = 6.75 PPG (Impossible)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 23 = 5.77 PPG (Out of their hands)

Carlisle
- 5 games to Play (Average Pos 11th, Average Form 13th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 32 = 6.40 PPG (Impossible)
-Top 2 Projected Number: 28 = 5.62 PPG (Out of their hands)

Stevenage
- 5 Games to Play (Average Pos 10th, Average Form 8th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 38 = 7.60 PPG (Impossible)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 34 = 6.82 PPG (Impossible)

Notts County
- 4 Games to Play (Average Pos 14th, Average Form 12th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 32 = 8.00 PPG (Impossible)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 28 = 7.02 PPG (Impossible)


Max Possible Points

Charlton - 103
Sheff Utd - 97
Wednesday - 95
Huddersfield - 86
MK Dons - 83
Carlisle - 81
Notts County - 78
Stevenage - 75

Projected Points

Charlton - 100
Sheff Utd - 93
Wednesday - 91
Huddersfield - 81
MK Dons - 78
Carlisle - 74
Notts County - 72
Stevenage - 67

Form Scores

Sheff Utd - 6.67
Sheff Wed - 5.78
Charlton - 5.15
Notts County - 5.07
Carlisle - 4.58
Huddersfield - 4.50
MK Dons - 4.11
Stevenage - 2.26

And for what it's worth, even if you don't take account of which teams you've played, we are now the top form side in League One, with Wednesday down to 3rd behind Brentford. It's just the right position for them in any table isn't it?
 



Were only first in that form table by virtue of how many goals we've scored. We've still got a leaky defence(7 conceded in last 6) compared to Wednesday(3 in 6). If our main goalscoring threat gets banged up then we could be in trouble. Ched scored half the goals we've scored in the last six games. Take his goals out and our form is W2 D3 L1 which would put us 10th in the form table.
 
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