The Numbers Thread (Will Be Updated After Each Game)

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dannycorker

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Thought I'd make a thread to keep updated to show just how much 2nd place is in our own hands to take now. After each game I'll update it, to show the MAXIMUM points we'll need to guarantee 2nd spot, and the points that we should need based on SEASON FORM and RECENT FORM (5 matches). If nothing else it's something interesting for me to do.

MAXIMUM POINTS NEEDED

Wednesday - 57 Points, 15 Games remaining. Maximum Total = 102
Huddersfield - 55 Points, 16 Games remaining. Maximum Total = 103

United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 104 from 17 games = 45 points needed or 2.65 points per game.

PROBABLE POINTS NEEDED (SEASON FORM)

For these numbers I've taken the percentage of wins, draws and losses and applied it to the rest of the season.

Wednesday - W17, D6, L8 = W55%, D19%, L8%
- 15 Games remaining = 8 Wins, 3 Draws, 4 Losses = 27 Points
- Total = 84 Points
Huddersfield - W14, D13, L3 = W47%, D43%, L10%
- 16 Games remaining = 8 Wins, 6 draws, 2 Loss = 30 Points
- Total = 85 Points

United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 86 from 17 games= 27 points needed or 1.56 points per game.

POSSIBLE POINTS NEEDED (RECENT FORM)

For these numbers I've taken form from the last 5 games, and applied it to the rest of the season.

Wednesday - L,L,W,D,W = 7 Points from 5 games
- 15 Games remaining = 21 Points
- Total = 78 Points
Huddersfield - L,D,D,W,W = 8 Points from 5 games
- 16 Games remaining = 26 Points
- Total = 81 Points

United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 82 from 17 games = 23 points needed or 1.35 points per game.


Now I know all this is just statistics, and a lot can change, but its looking good for us at this stage. As I said, I'll update it after each round of games and see how it looks. If you don't like it, sorry but I had some fun doing it and was bored to be honest :D Hope someone finds it interesting! And let me know if you spot any errors, did this in a bit of a rush!

EDIT: Here's a link to a rather impressive spreadsheet from SellyOakBlade, lots more info than I can include in just one post and easier to look at as well I think! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkNNNnOalY5WdF9MUUthTUFtRVhfOHZCY2FCQ3ZIT0E#gid=0

EDIT 2: Going to include relevant info for us and Charlton from a spreadsheet I made that I'll be updating after each set of games. Just points per game etc below here:
Link to spreadsheet if anyone's interested - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiW7b704Nv1SdHk5SDloVHEyZGdxQTBpdGlkWFV3S0E

Charlton - Magic Number for promotion - 37 = 2.18 PPG
- Projected Number for promotion - 19 = 1.09 PPG
- Magic Number for 1st place - 44 = 2.59 PPG

Blades - Magic Number for promotion - 45 = 2.65 PPG
- Projected Number for promotion - 27 = 1.56 PPG
 

Nice effort dc! Being a bit of a statto myself I find this sort of thing interesting.

I try not to read too much into statistics as a lot can change but I agree its in our hands.

DW and the players just need to carry on as normal - take it game by game and dont get carried away.
 
Patrick Suffaux said:
DW and the players just need to carry on as normal - take it game by game and dont get carried away.
Click to expand...

Definitely agree with this. It can be dangerous realising that 1.65 points a game should see you promoted, much better to think you need 3.0 every game :D
 
dannycorker said:
Thought I'd make a thread to keep updated to show just how much 2nd place is in our own hands to take now. After each game I'll update it, to show the MAXIMUM points we'll need to guarantee 2nd spot, and the points that we should need based on SEASON FORM and RECENT FORM (5 matches). If nothing else it's something interesting for me to do.

MAXIMUM POINTS NEEDED

Wednesday - 57 Points, 15 Games remaining. Maximum Total = 102
Huddersfield - 55 Points, 16 Games remaining. Maximum Total = 103

United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 104 = 45 points from 17 games = 2.65 points per game.

PROBABLE POINTS NEEDED (SEASON FORM)

For these numbers I've taken the percentage of wins, draws and losses and applied it to the rest of the season.

Wednesday - W17, D6, L8 = W55%, D19%, L8%
- 15 Games remaining = 8 Wins, 3 Draws, 4 Losses = 27 Points
- Total = 84 Points
Huddersfield - W14, D13, L3 = W47%, D43%, L10%
- 16 Games remaining = 8 Wins, 7 draws, 1 Loss = 31 Points
- Total = 86 Points

United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 87 = 28 points from 17 games = 1.65 points per game.

POSSIBLE POINTS NEEDED (RECENT FORM)

For these numbers I've taken form from the last 5 games, and applied it to the rest of the season.

Wednesday - L,L,W,D,W = 7 Points from 5 games
- 15 Games remaining = 21 Points
- Total = 78 Points
Huddersfield - L,D,D,W,W = 8 Points from 5 games
- 16 Games remaining = 26 Points
- Total = 81 Points

United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 82 = 23 points from 17 games = 1.35 points per game.




Now I know all this is just statistics, and a lot can change, but its looking good for us at this stage. As I said, I'll update it after each round of games and see how it looks. If you don't like it, sorry but I had some fun doing it and was bored to be honest :D Hope someone finds it interesting! And let me know if you spot any errors, did this in a bit of a rush!
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I enjoy that sort of thing as well. Many thanks.

I think your middle scenario is the more realistic and what is pleasing is that we probably need no more than play off form for the rest of the season to get automatic - W8 D4 L5 will probably be enough and I think even the most pessimistic fan would not think we will lose 5 of our remaining 17 games :)
 
As of now the middle scenario is definitely the most likely one. But I'm more interested to watch that top scenario (hopefully) keep falling and falling as the games count down. Although if Wednesday and Hudders maintain their recent form for the rest of the season I'll probably have to rework it all to to include MK and Stevenage instead!
 
Darren said:
I enjoy that sort of thing as well. Many thanks.

I think your middle scenario is the more realistic and what is pleasing is that we probably need no more than play off form for the rest of the season to get automatic - W8 D4 L5 will probably be enough and I think even the most pessimistic fan would not think we will lose 5 of our remaining 17 games :)
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Spot on. I'd still like to think that the training ground target is overhauling Charlton though.
 
Table at a similar stage last term:

1 Brighton P29 Pts 59
2 Bournemouth P32 Pts 55
3 Huddersfield P31 Pts 52
4 Peterborough P31 Pts 50
5 Southampton P29 Pts 49
6 MK Dons P33 Pts 49

Think Saints finished with a run of W14 D1 L2 - I'd settle for that!
 
cooperblade said:
Table at a similar stage last term:

1 Brighton P29 Pts 59
2 Bournemouth P32 Pts 55
3 Huddersfield P31 Pts 52
4 Peterborough P31 Pts 50
5 Southampton P29 Pts 49
6 MK Dons P33 Pts 49

Think Saints finished with a run of W14 D1 L2 - I'd settle for that!
Click to expand...

On the flip side, if Hudders or Wednesday finish with a run like that we still need another 37 points to prevent them from taking second...
 
cooperblade said:
Table at a similar stage last term:

1 Brighton P29 Pts 59
2 Bournemouth P32 Pts 55
3 Huddersfield P31 Pts 52
4 Peterborough P31 Pts 50
5 Southampton P29 Pts 49
6 MK Dons P33 Pts 49

Think Saints finished with a run of W14 D1 L2 - I'd settle for that!
Click to expand...

Nice to see that Brighton were on the exact same points as us after 29 games last year!
 
Looking at the remaining fixtures, can't see us losing any of our remaining home games, and maybe losing 3 games away. It's totally in our hands. What does concern me is a game nearly every 3 days from the Pigs game onwards. A few injuries could scupper us slightly. Will be interesting to see where we are come the Tranmere home game.
 
If we get to the end of Feb with another 7 points in the bag, we will be well set...
 
Balham Blade said:
Spot on. I'd still like to think that the training ground target is overhauling Charlton though.
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This ^

This is is how Danny and the boys have to think, I'm sure they are as well.

Looking ahead is better than looking over your shoulder. Much more positive approach.
 

I prefer the Magic numbers way of looking at it.

How many points we have to get to achieve whatever, rather than averages per game.

I'm also a statistician (graduated 42 years ago)
 
Very interesting. Also would be interesting to see how many top teams the other have to play. We've got Charlton and Hudders out of the way and soon the pigs. I suppose they could argue they have got us out of the way also. I note we have Stevenage next to last game and also MK Dons just before. Gonna be an interesting run in, but we could be about there if we have a good finish, before we play them.
 
I'm happy to add in things like top teams remaining to play. As for making an excel spreadsheet of it, I know it could save a lot of time in the long run but would take a bit of setting up, and I didn't think I could embed it in here anyway? Will probably make one if I can, as it would be much easier going forward. I could add in what we need to gain on Charlton as well?

EDIT:
travellingblade said:
I prefer the Magic numbers way of looking at it.

How many points we have to get to achieve whatever, rather than averages per game.

I'm also a statistician (graduated 42 years ago)
Click to expand...

I've slightly changed the first post to show the number of points needed more clearly alongside points per game.
 
Interesting stuff. I'm a bit of a stats geek too and so enjoy this kind of stuff.

One thing you missed is United's actual points per game ratio:

- our form for the season is just over 2 points per game (P29, W18, D5, L6).
- [U]our form from the last 5 games is P5, W4, L1, which is 2.4. [/U]So based on current form and overall season form, we are serious contenders for automatic. We still have some tricky games mind, particularly away from home. We also cannot rule out freak form (see Saints last year). But I think Huddersfield have been drawing too many games for a long time and Wednesday have been punching above their weight for a long time (a play off team at best). We absolutely must keep our foot to the metal. Consistency is the key. It's the reason why the table is suddenly looking so favourable for us.
 
dannycorker said:
I'm happy to add in things like top teams remaining to play. As for making an excel spreadsheet of it, I know it could save a lot of time in the long run but would take a bit of setting up, and I didn't think I could embed it in here anyway? Will probably make one if I can, as it would be much easier going forward. I could add in what we need to gain on Charlton as well?

EDIT:

I've slightly changed the first post to show the number of points needed more clearly alongside points per game.
Click to expand...

Here is my spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkNNNnOalY5WdF9MUUthTUFtRVhfOHZCY2FCQ3ZIT0E

Has things like projected points based on Season long H/A form, average position of teh teams left to play, Magic Numbers etc etc
 
I thought about including our form etc, but thought it wasn't really relevant as based on everyone's form the table will obviously stay the way it is now! Was just trying to give an impression of what we can expect the teams below us to do, and the main number that really matters is that first one in the thread - 45 points gained by us or lost by Wednesday/Hudders and we go up.

---------- Post added at 01:11 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:08 PM ----------
SellyOakBlade said:
Here is my spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkNNNnOalY5WdF9MUUthTUFtRVhfOHZCY2FCQ3ZIT0E

Has things like projected points based on Season long H/A form, average position of teh teams left to play, Magic Numbers etc etc
Click to expand...

That's quite impressive! Does it pull in data for the league from somewhere? I've credited you with a link in the OP, will remove if you want me to though.

One difference in the numbers made from spreadsheets is in the final points tally. Obviously the spreadsheet just uses maths, whereas I've actually tried to choose how many wins, draws losses etc. On current form Hudders for instance are losing 10% of their games, leaving them with 1.6 losses left. I chose to put this down as 1 loss rather than 2, as the stats are maybe a bit skewed with them having lost just last night. But that one difference swaps round where Hudders and Wednesday would finish in the league! Could come down to tiny details this year...in the battle between 3rd and 4th for those two :p
 
Really good thanks for that. Has anyone actually looked at the fixtures for the rest? What run in do they have?
 
United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 104 from 17 games

Surely 17 games could yield 51 more points so our maximum would be 110 not 104
 
dannycorker said:
I thought about including our form etc, but thought it wasn't really relevant as based on everyone's form the table will obviously stay the way it is now! Was just trying to give an impression of what we can expect the teams below us to do, and the main number that really matters is that first one in the thread - 45 points gained by us or lost by Wednesday/Hudders and we go up.

That's quite impressive! Does it pull in data for the league from somewhere? I've credited you with a link in the OP, will remove if you want me to though.

One difference in the numbers made from spreadsheets is in the final points tally. Obviously the spreadsheet just uses maths, whereas I've actually tried to choose how many wins, draws losses etc. On current form Hudders for instance are losing 10% of their games, leaving them with 1.6 losses left. I chose to put this down as 1 loss rather than 2, as the stats are maybe a bit skewed with them having lost just last night. But that one difference swaps round where Hudders and Wednesday would finish in the league! Could come down to tiny details this year...in the battle between 3rd and 4th for those two :p
Click to expand...

No it doesn`t pull it in, I have to type the results into the Fixtures tab. Everything from there is a mathematical formula.

In terms of the W/D/L projection, it just projects on Home and Away form. So we are averaging 2.33 PPG at home, we have y games left, ergo we will get y x 2.33 POints from our home games...

---------- Post added at 01:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:51 PM ----------
Kenilworth said:
United - 59 Points, 17 Games remaining. Maximum Needed = 104 from 17 games

Surely 17 games could yield 51 more points so our maximum would be 110 not 104
Click to expand...

Yes, but the other teams can only get to 103...
 
I think you need to check your formulae again, especially for Charlton's "Promotion Magic Number", which should be 104 - 67 = 37 (not 44), and everyboy's "Playoffs", i.e. ours should 98 - 59 = 39.

Also, although not shown, our Relegation Magic Number is 76 - 59 = 17
 
if we just win our home games then we will be up to 83 (i think.. quick calculation).. that'll take some beating by the others
 
travellingblade said:
I think you need to check your formulae again, especially for Charlton's "Promotion Magic Number", which should be 104 - 67 = 37 (not 44), and everyboy's "Playoffs", i.e. ours should 98 - 59 = 39.

Also, although not shown, our Relegation Magic Number is 76 - 59 = 17
Click to expand...

Made a new spreadsheet just with top 6, and added relevant numbers from it to first post. I think they're all right on there. Not quite as pretty as SellyOaks though!
 
travellingblade said:
I think you need to check your formulae again, especially for Charlton's "Promotion Magic Number", which should be 104 - 67 = 37 (not 44), and everyboy's "Playoffs", i.e. ours should 98 - 59 = 39.

Also, although not shown, our Relegation Magic Number is 76 - 59 = 17
Click to expand...

So it is, will check whats wrong tomorrow...

---------- Post added at 09:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:58 PM ----------
SellyOakBlade said:
So it is, will check whats wrong tomorrow...
Click to expand...

Sorted it now...
 

When do you intend to produce an update after yesterday's matches?

The Automatic Promotion number hasn't changed, because Huddersfield weren't playing yesterday, but the Champions number reduced by 2 to 58 (still not achieveable), because of Charlton's failure to win, whilst we did win.
 
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