The Numbers Thread (Will Be Updated After Each Game)

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Take his goals out and you'd have Hoskins or Beattie or Porter or O'Halloran on the pitch - they might not score as many but they'd get something! The leaking goals are a worry, but to be fair some of them were whilst coasting in the lead, and some of them were just ridiculous (yes I'm talking about the weekend). Except for that stupid goal, whilst the game is still in contention we've been alright. Kept the clean sheet against Hartlepool, conceded one at Colchester who were playing very well at the time. Fell asleep a bit tonight and against County, but we had scored 5 goals, very easy to switch off in that situation. Should never have let Chesterfield score theirs to be fair, but even that was a deflected outside the box effort!

Also, Wednesday have only played one team recently who I would consider 'in form' and that was Walsall, which they very nearly lost. They've also been playing Orient (bottom of the form table), Oldham (second bottom) and Huddersfield (sinking down the table). Can't wait for them to play a couple of in form sides like Carlisle and Brentford!
 

Except Hoskins has been ill for the last two games, Beattie i don't think will ever score for us again (Total waste of Money copyright Ollessendro :)), porter can't hit a cows arse with a banjo, and by the sounds of it o'halloran has mainly ran and fallen over the last couple of games.

Agree with you on the form of the teams that wednesday has left to play apart from colchester.

I think we'll both get victories this weekend,and then the real test starts with us away at Franchise FC and them at home to Carlisle
 
Highbury_Blade said:
Were only first in that form table by virtue of how many goals we've scored. We've still got a leaky defence(7 conceded in last 6) compared to Wednesday(3 in 6). If our main goalscoring threat gets banged up then we could be in trouble. Ched scored half the goals we've scored in the last six games. Take his goals out and our form is W2 D3 L1 which would put us 10th in the form table.
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So if we'd played with 10 men for the last 6 we'd still be 10th in the form table?

Impressive.

:)

UTB
 
Highbury_Blade said:
Were only first in that form table by virtue of how many goals we've scored. We've still got a leaky defence(7 conceded in last 6) compared to Wednesday(3 in 6). If our main goalscoring threat gets banged up then we could be in trouble. Ched scored half the goals we've scored in the last six games. Take his goals out and our form is W2 D3 L1 which would put us 10th in the form table.
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While I agree in regards to having big concerns about our goals papering over the obvious cracks in our defence, I think other players would have taken some of the chances. It would be daft to say a 30+ goal player hasn't contributed greatly to our current position, but that doesn't mean we would be 30 goals down if he hasn't played at all this season.
 
Without going back through the highlights, a lot of Ched's goals have been 'self-made' in that he's not just been there to finish moves off, he's conjured something up from outside the area and that's where I don't think we have a replacement. Porter et al would have scored a few in his absence but Ched has made the difference in tight games where he's pulled something out of the bag. On the flip side, he's also missed chances where he's been greedy when he could have laid it on a plate for someone else so it's swings and roundabouts.
 
I'm all for proving stuff with maths (especially that 95 points wouldn't be enough for Wednesday to go up in third!) BUT I can't help but think that going down from the Prem with the highest points total for X years (ever?) should keep our feet firmly placed on the firmament. Tevez was our undoing in the Prem, Ched could be our undoing in the third!

If Ched's out, it's Porter for me.
 
BladeInBC said:
I'm all for proving stuff with maths (especially that 95 points wouldn't be enough for Wednesday to go up in third!) BUT I can't help but think that going down from the Prem with the highest points total for X years (ever?) should keep our feet firmly placed on the firmament. Tevez was our undoing in the Prem, Ched could be our undoing in the third!

If Ched's out, it's Porter for me.
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Didn't Wet Spam go down with 42 points once?
 
Well United really hit the high points today being the first side to obtain maximum form over 6 games and becoming the form team at the moment. On the face of it we are nailed on for 2nd but a court in Wales may have a different view!

On the caution side MK and Stevenage might now be turning things round and Carlisle have now entered a dodgy spell so their game away at Stevenage next week is vital. We must surely be wanting a Carlisle win to make Stevenage’s visit to the Lane less meaningful.

The updated 6 game form predictor indicates the following final table points total. As Colchester are now well out of it I have deleted them from the stats. As previously the previous points totals are in brackets:

Charlton 102 (100-96-92-90-95-94)
United 97 (96-94-93-89-84-82)
Wednesday 91 (94-93-90)
MK Dons 78 (76-73-75-76-79-83-81)
Huddersfield 77 (80-82-85-84-87-83-82)
Notts Co 73 (71-68-66-69-76)
Carlisle 72 (74-75-78-77-72-75-76)
Brentford 71 (74-75-71-67-65-59-53)
Stevenage 68 (64-68-69-69-69-68)

The effect of today’s results is to make 6th place a four-way race so it really is game on against MK, Stevenage and Wednesday against Carlisle and Brentford.

Based on the season’s average ppg (as opposed to the current form) the out turn looks like

Charlton 101 (100)
United 94 (93)
Wednesday 90 (91)
MK Dons 79 (78)
Huddersfield 79 (81)
Notts Co 72 (71)
Carlisle 72 (74)
Stevenage 69 (67)
Brentford 68 (69)

As for performance against the seasons average we can see how current form (last 6 games) compares against the seasons form and which sides are doing better or worse than their current season's average. Figures in brackets are a comparison with the best and worst previous fixtures performance over the last few weeks.

Charlton 114% (100%-78%)
United 147% (132%-69%)
Wednesday 119% (139%-123%)
MK Dons 77% (78%-85%)
Huddersfield 58% (107%-85%)
Notts Co 118% (113%-89%)
Carlisle 95% (125%-96%)
Brentford 157% (178%-104%)
Stevenage 78% (88%-57%)

United and Brentford are really flying now but Brentford may have peaked and Carlisle are falling away a bit. Huddersfield have dropped away alarmingly too but probably have too many points to finish outside the play offs.
 

So far we have been strong defensively away from home we have conceded more at home than on the road.
wendy do have an advantage against Carlisle as they lost two main players just before the Charlton game. Lee Miller (15 goal scorer) and Chris Chanter were both lost for the season with injuries .
wendy again play a team that has had to play a midweek game while they sit rested.
Carlisle play at Stevenage on Tuesday tough game for them.
 
Right, just had mi tea (pizza, as you ask ;)). Is this what you want? Maximum potential points.

maxpotential.jpg


Charlton 103
Sheff. Utd 97
Pigs 93
MK Dons 83
Huddersfield 83
Notts. C. 76
Carlisle 78
Brentford 73
Stevenage 75
 

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grafikhaus said:
Right, just had mi tea (pizza, as you ask ;)). Is this what you want? Maximum potential points.

View attachment 4930
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No sorry, what I meant was what was the maximum ever achieved (you quote averages) for winning the league, 2nd etc. I pressumed you have the data in order to build the graph in the first place as you quote averages in the box on the right.
 
Charlton
- 3 Games to Play (Average Pos 16th, Average Form 15th)
- Promoted
- Champions Magic Number: 4 = 1.33 PPG (1 win, 1 draw, 1 left)

Sheff Utd
- 3 Games to Play (Average Pos 12th, Average Form 14th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 6 = 2.00 PPG (2 wins)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 3 = 1.00 PPG (1 win, 2 left)

Sheff Wed
- 3 Games to Play (Average Pos 12th, Average Form 8th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 14 = 4.67 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 11 = 3.71 PPG (Out of their hands)

Huddersfield
- 3 Games to Play (Average Pos 17th, Average Form 14th)

MK Dons
- 3 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 11th)

Carlisle
- 4 games to Play (Average Pos 13th, Average Form 15th)

Stevenage
- 4 Games to Play (Average Pos 8th, Average Form 5th)

Notts County
- 3 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 13th)


Max Possible Points

Charlton - 103
Sheff Utd - 97
Wednesday - 93
Huddersfield - 83
MK Dons - 83
Carlisle - 78
Notts County - 76
Stevenage - 75

Projected Points

Charlton - 101
Sheff Utd - 94
Wednesday - 90
Huddersfield - 79
MK Dons - 79
Carlisle - 72
Notts County - 72
Stevenage - 69

Form Scores

Sheff Utd - 5.38
MK Dons - 5.00
Carlisle - 4.75
Notts County - 4.66
Charlton - 4.38
Sheff Wed - 3.60
Huddersfield - 3.17
Stevenage - 2.97

First off, congratulations Charlton, you're not champions yet though :p I've removed a lot of Magic/Projected numbers that are impossible to achieve, hopefully a bit easier to read now! Form scores suggests it could be a cracker next weekend with ourselves and MK topping the charts. Wednesday's form score has dipped as they haven't played a top 10 form side in their last 6 (with 3 against bottom 4 sides), yet have drawn 2, whilst MK are flying having played 4 of the top 10 form sides in their last 6, and coming out with 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. And we're just flying with 6 wins from 6. UTB.
 
BladeFisher said:
Well United really hit the high points today being the first side to obtain maximum form over 6 games and becoming the form team at the moment. On the face of it we are nailed on for 2nd but a court in Wales may have a different view!
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We got 16 points from 6 games at the start of the season, Why cant we do it with out him now?

OR
Do you believe all that "one man team" bollocks?
 
BladeFisher said:
Thanks for that. Looks like on a season's average the top 3 teams are the best ever over the last 5 years as expected totals are 101, 94 and 90 points.

Next stop the Premiership! :D
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Not with that defence, but hey let's get to the championship before we get into that.
 
Not convinced on Harry, certainly still had a lot to learn.
Plus as a unit the back 5 don't look secure. Too many silly mistakes which will be punished at a higher level.

Decent result but let's not get carried away. Lots of hard work ahead.
 
Flatulent_Bob said:
Not convinced on Harry, certainly still had a lot to learn.
Plus as a unit the back 5 don't look secure. Too many silly mistakes which will be punished at a higher level.

Decent result but let's not get carried away. Lots of hard work ahead.
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Harry of course has a lot to learn, but for his age I think he's been nothing short of sensational this season. With LJF and our regular back 4 we weren't conceding nearly as many stupid goals. Not all goals have been Hill's fault of course, today's was solely down to Harry, but with our regular back 4 I'm fairly happy with the defence to be honest. And I never thought I'd say that with Collins in the side! :O

Also, strikers have a knack for getting great finishes against us! Fantastic strike today, and Chesterfield likewise!
 

Charlton
- 2 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 16th)
- Promoted
- Champions

Sheff Utd
- 2 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 9th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 6 = 3.00 PPG (2 wins)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 4 = 1.98 PPG (1 win, 1 draw)

Sheff Wed
- 2 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 14th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 8 = 4.00 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 6 = 3.00 PPG (2 wins)

Huddersfield
- 2 Games to Play (Average Pos 18th, Average Form 16th)

MK Dons
- 2 Games to Play (Average Pos 22nd, Average Form 18th)

Carlisle
- 2 games to Play (Average Pos 21st, Average Form 18th)

Stevenage
- 2 Games to Play (Average Pos 7th, Average Form 3rd)

Notts County
- 2 Games to Play (Average Pos 16th, Average Form 21st)


Max Possible Points

Charlton - 103
Sheff Utd - 94
Wednesday - 93
Huddersfield - 83
MK Dons - 83
Stevenage - 75
Notts County - 73
Carlisle - 72

Projected Points

Charlton - 101
Sheff Utd - 92
Wednesday - 91
Huddersfield - 81
MK Dons - 81
Stevenage - 72
Notts County - 70
Carlisle - 69

Form Scores

MK Dons - 5.63
Sheff Utd - 5.31
Notts County - 4.35
Stevenage - 4.13
Carlisle - 3.02
Charlton - 3.02
Sheff Wed - 2.89
Huddersfield - 2.46

Winning against a team that has lost 3 in a row doesn't boost your form much ;) We're still in the driving seat, lost 1-0 to a team that has been playing very well against decent sides lately to secure a play off place. Wednesday yet again seem to have played a team at just the right time, after their good run of form. Brentford will hopefully get something next week. If Wednesday drop points, we only need 1 win to effectively secure promotion remember. UTB.
 
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