We Can Still Finish 6th - Pre Matchday 29 - New Graphs & Charts

[BalticBlade]

We're not going to go the rest of the season unbeaten.

We're not going to draw eight times between now and the end of the season.

We'll win more than 9 matches between now and the remainder of the season.

11 Wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats is a more realistic permutation for getting to 71 points.

12 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats is a more realistic permutation for getting to 77 points.

 

[Uganda Blade]

Making the playoffs may be unlikely - but it is still a realistic target.

I set playoff targets for each match back on August 9th, based on my forecasts of all 24 teams’ form.

I have now reset the remaining 18 game targets, based on our current position and every other team's seasons to date.

Table 1 shows the points achieved by 6th and 7th places over the last 6 years. 71 points would have been enough to beat 7th in every one of those years. 77 points would have been enough to at least match 6th place in 5 of those 6 years. So I am taking 71 points as a Playoff Possible total and 77 points as a Playoff Probable total.

Table 1:
View attachment 229825


Table 2 shows our final 18 games and 2 series of results that achieve those 71 and 77 point totals.

There is not an unrealistic result on this table – it is just achieving all of them that is the challenge.

Table 2:
View attachment 229826

Finally, Graph 1 plots our season so far, along with the above Table 2 paths to those final points targets.
When you look at that graph, the projection doesn’t look at all over-optimistic.

I will plot our progress on this graph after each game.

Graph 1:
View attachment 229827

On the xgPoints Tables we are currently 4th – so our general performance is already certainly Top 6.

Our Best 11 is developing some great partnerships – Hamer and O’Hare, Brooks and Seriki, Tanganga and Bindon, Bamford and Cannon, Riedewald and Peck.
That is what consistent success relies on - having confidence in the players around you.

You May Say I'm a Dreamer - but just Imagine if it happened!

UTB & Slava Ukraini!

Great stuff!
Can you also update Table 2 as well as Graph 1 after each game to add a column for actual points won in each game?

 

[SUFC Guy]

Just to add, does anyone think that these teams consider themselves to be out of the play off picture?



We win our game in hand and we are only 2 points off 12th place - so I would class that as we are still in the race (as of today)

We'd be only being 6 points from 6th and all of those teams still to play except Stoke and those team's current form isn't that great of late barring Derby.

 

[mattbianco1]

These have all got to play eachother too:

 

[CoatesyBlade]

If we can win 12 out of the last 18 games that puts us on 71pts. Will that be enough this season I don’t know… but I think that’s a realistic target

 

[KMC-1889]

4 posts to project your misery on this thread alone ,we get it .

Do you need a tissue?

Don’t know why being realistic upsets you so much. If you want to believe if fairies and world peace and a promotion push your free to do so.

 

[Houston_Blade]

Not quite.
We aren't out of the Play Off race yet because the run-in is stacked with the teams we need to catch.

• We still have to play 8 of the teams between us and the Play‑Off places.
• We have a game in hand on 7 of them.
• We’re currently a maximum of 9 points behind the highest of those teams (Wrexham).

Lets assume we’ve beaten Oxford, the gap to Wrexham drops to 6 points, and we still have to play them. Beat Wrexham and we’re 3 points behind the current 6th‑placed side.
From there, we’d only need to outperform Wrexham by 4 points across the remaining fixtures. If we were sitting in 7th, that’s exactly the kind of scenario we’d call “well in the mix”.

The complication is the number of teams in between. Assuming we win our game in hand, we’d need to outperform the other teams by the following points:

• QPR: 3
• Birmingham: 2
• Swansea: game in hand puts us above
• Bristol City: 6
• Watford: 9
• Preston: 6
• Derby: 5

Now imagine we’ve:

• won the game in hand, and
• beaten every one of those teams (plus Wrexham).

At that point, the remaining gaps become:

• Watford: 6
• Wrexham: 3
• Bristol City: 3
• Preston: 3
• Derby: 2
• QPR: already above
• Birmingham: already above
• Swansea: already above

Watford are the only side we don’t have a game in hand on.

A very simplified scenario...
If our next 8 games were against all those teams, and we won the lot, +the game in hand, while every other team won 7 of their 8 matches (losing only to us), the table with 9 games left would look like this:

Team	Points
Stoke*	66
Leicester*	62
Wrexham	62
Southampton*	61
Bristol City	61
Watford	61 (game in hand)
Preston	61
Derby	60
United	59
QPR	58
Birmingham	57
Swansea	54

*as we don't have to play these teams, i've given them 8 wins from 8, which puts them in a false position

The point i'm trying to make is that even in a conservative scenario where everyone else keeps winning, beating the teams around us drags us right into the mix.

The fixtures give us a direct route back into contention — we just need to take advantage of them.

Are we going up or not?!

 

[SwitchBLADE Smiles]

Not quite.
We aren't out of the Play Off race yet because the run-in is stacked with the teams we need to catch.

• We still have to play 8 of the teams between us and the Play‑Off places.
• We have a game in hand on 7 of them.
• We’re currently a maximum of 9 points behind the highest of those teams (Wrexham).

Lets assume we’ve beaten Oxford, the gap to Wrexham drops to 6 points, and we still have to play them. Beat Wrexham and we’re 3 points behind the current 6th‑placed side.
From there, we’d only need to outperform Wrexham by 4 points across the remaining fixtures. If we were sitting in 7th, that’s exactly the kind of scenario we’d call “well in the mix”.

The complication is the number of teams in between. Assuming we win our game in hand, we’d need to outperform the other teams by the following points:

• QPR: 3
• Birmingham: 2
• Swansea: game in hand puts us above
• Bristol City: 6
• Watford: 9
• Preston: 6
• Derby: 5

Now imagine we’ve:

• won the game in hand, and
• beaten every one of those teams (plus Wrexham).

At that point, the remaining gaps become:

• Watford: 6
• Wrexham: 3
• Bristol City: 3
• Preston: 3
• Derby: 2
• QPR: already above
• Birmingham: already above
• Swansea: already above

Watford are the only side we don’t have a game in hand on.

A very simplified scenario...
If our next 8 games were against all those teams, and we won the lot, +the game in hand, while every other team won 7 of their 8 matches (losing only to us), the table with 9 games left would look like this:

Team	Points
Stoke*	66
Leicester*	62
Wrexham	62
Southampton*	61
Bristol City	61
Watford	61 (game in hand)
Preston	61
Derby	60
United	59
QPR	58
Birmingham	57
Swansea	54

*as we don't have to play these teams, i've given them 8 wins from 8, which puts them in a false position

The point i'm trying to make is that even in a conservative scenario where everyone else keeps winning, beating the teams around us drags us right into the mix.

The fixtures give us a direct route back into contention — we just need to take advantage of them.

I’m not saying it’s not possible, I’m saying the chances of us reaching the play-offs is extremely remote. The first issue I have, is that we have to go into the rest of the season in title-winning form to have a chance of catching 6th place.

The second issue I have, is that we’re all assuming that Wrexham are the team to catch. There’s every possibility that Wrexham won’t be the team to ‘drop out’ of the play-offs come May. If that team is Millwall, we need another 5 points from somewhere as a minimum.

I just don’t see a likely scenario personally.

 

[Blades1971]

We get a shitload of money to help keep the football team competitive and can build again.

I'm dreading next season in the Championship with our current squad and no parachute payments

A shitload of money doesn't guarantee anything. Look at Fulham a few years ago 100 Million invested Relegated
Minimal investment. Equals season 23/24
Prime example that lot at S6

 

[BarcaBlade]

Hmmmm

Let's just focus on beating Millwall shall we?!!

Surely if we beat Millwall, we're almost certainly going up. UCDMagic has it as a draw even in the optimistic column.
Must win game, lads.

 

[SUFCScorecard]

making the playoffs may be unlikely - but it is still a realistic target.

I set playoff targets for each match back on August 9th, based on my forecasts of all 24 teams’ form.

I have now reset the remaining 18 game targets, based on our current position and every other team's seasons to date.

Table 1 shows the points achieved by 6th and 7th places over the last 6 years. 71 points would have been enough to beat 7th in every one of those years. 77 points would have been enough to at least match 6th place in 5 of those 6 years. So I am taking 71 points as a Playoff Possible total and 77 points as a Playoff Probable total.

Table 1:
View attachment 229825


Table 2 shows our final 18 games and 2 series of results that achieve those 71 and 77 point totals.

There is not an unrealistic result on this table – it is just achieving all of them that is the challenge.

Table 2:
View attachment 229826

Finally, Graph 1 plots our season so far, along with the above Table 2 paths to those final points targets.
When you look at that graph, the projection doesn’t look at all over-optimistic.

I will plot our progress on this graph after each game.

Graph 1:
View attachment 229827

On the xgPoints Tables we are currently 4th – so our general performance is already certainly Top 6.

Our Best 11 is developing some great partnerships – Hamer and O’Hare, Brooks and Seriki, Tanganga and Bindon, Bamford and Cannon, Riedewald and Peck.
That is what consistent success relies on - having confidence in the players around you.

You May Say I'm a Dreamer - but just Imagine if it happened!

UTB & Slava Ukraini!

In both these scenarios - we don't lose another game!!

My gut says that we just miss out, we end up with 65-70pts. We are a good team, and the data backs it up, but a lot of things are going to have to go our way to get there, starting this weekend at Millwall. In my model I have set the target at 74pts, and I currently assess our chances of getting there as 31%. Win at Millwall that goes to 47%, (Needing 2.11 PPG - equivalent to 97pts across 46 games), lose and it drops to 26% (Needing 2.29 PPG - equivalent to 105pts across 46 games).

There is so little room for error between now and the end of the season.

 

[bruce]

There's a lot of 'if's' in there when relating to form.

Just as there are in the OP.

What isn't an 'if' is that there are 10 teams in between us and 6th place. All of them have to do worse than us over the next 18 games

 

[CarlMcBlade]

If we beat Millwall I might start to believe. But if we don’t…It’s over Blades.

 

[bruce]

We beat them at their place and then it's down to 5 points.

It is far too early to give up. I could understand being 9 points off with 5 or 6 games to go would be unlikely (not impossible) but we have18 games left to play. 10 are at home and 8 are away.

Nobody is saying it's a cert that we will do it, but on the other hand there are so many saying it's a cert that we won't. It's too early to call.

*Just to add to this, let's keep this thread going until the time that we can all agree that it's impossible

I'm not giving up, but I do recognise it is unlikely.

If we did make it I think we would probably finally get play off success as it would be the first time we enter the play offs with real momentum.

 

[bruce]

But clearly we are not the same team that lost so many games early on.

No, but our record under Wilder is still below what is needed to get us the 35 or so points that we need. And that's assuming the target remains at the lower end.
W11 D2 L10

 

[vas borbokis]

No, but our record under Wilder is still below what is needed to get us the 35 or so points that we need. And that's assuming the target remains at the lower end.
W11 D2 L10

When looking at Wilder's ppg track record this season, you can't count his first 5 or 6 games when the squad he inherited was a) on its knees and b) didn't have Bamford and Reiderwald.
Also he will be adding to the squad soon, and likely improving it..

 

[CarlMcBlade]

If we beat Millwall on Saturday…I’ll show my arse in Harrods.

 

[bruce]

When looking at Wilder's ppg track record this season, you can't count his first 5 or 6 games when the squad he inherited was a) on its knees and b) didn't have Bamford and Reiderwald.
Also he will be adding to the squad soon, and likely improving it..

If you take away his first 6 games his record is W8 D2 L7. Hardly any difference to now.
During the 23 games since he came back we have had one good run of 6 games unbeaten where we won 4 and drew 2. Apart from that it has been fits and starts, win 1, lose 1, win 2, lose 2.

 

[bladesince64]

I said that before the Ipswich game.

God my arse cheeks were frozen that day daan the Smowk.

 

[vas borbokis]

If you take away his first 6 games his record is W8 D2 L7. Hardly any difference to now.

Again you're looking at the 2 losses caused by 2 freak sending offs which has left us playing sub standard players and having a weak bench.
We need some luck and to avoid unreasonable refereeing but if we get going on another decent run, we definitely have a chance to make the playoffs.

 

[Tezza1889]

We get in the playoffs i will be very surprised, we have more losses on the way because the team have too many off days...

Some days, and i don't know why, they just don't seem to care..

imho

 

[Carlton Blade]

I don't think we have the consistency to get to 6th. We are too reliant on Bamford to have a real attack and we struggle away from home.

But it's been a fun time from beating Wednesday onwards. 13 matches, 8 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats. 25 points. GF 28, GA 15. 3.3 goals per game (for reference, last season was 2.15). 6 total red cards, 3 for United. Plus a 7 goal cup tie.

I'm here for another 18 games of it

 

[bruce]

Again you're looking at the 2 losses caused by 2 freak sending offs which has left us playing sub standard players and having a weak bench.
We need some luck and to avoid unreasonable refereeing but if we get going on another decent run, we definitely have a chance to make the playoffs.

Almost every team in the league will have 'freak' results and games where everything goes against them. Should we only count the matches where we played well, didn't do anything stupid and won?
You are now trying to have results removed because we lost where you feel we shouldn't have lost.
Another way of looking at it is that we should have been comfortably ahead against Charlton before half time. The fact we weren't shows up our inconsistency.
We lost to West Brom when we had no excuses. Conceded 5 to Wrexham.The centre back pairing against Southampton was the same as against Ipswich, so hardly deserves to be called "sub standard".

 

[vas borbokis]

I get what you're saying. We've been too erratic but we have looked a very good team at times.
I'm living in hope that we stop shooting ourselves in the foot, and we get a fair wind from the officials.
I'll be trying hard to enjoy the rest of the season.
Hope we can do it.

 

[bruce]

I get what you're saying. We've been too erratic but we have looked a very good team at times.
I'm living in hope that we stop shooting ourselves in the foot, and we get a fair wind from the officials.
I'll be trying hard to enjoy the rest of the season.
Hope we can do it.

We have looked very good at times. Totally agree. But at other times we can just shake our heads in despair.
I think you hit the nail on the head. We are erratic. Unfortunately, I think that is what has stopped us moving up the table far quicker than we have been doing, and is why we will probably be a fair few points short of the play offs.
It wouldn't surprise me if we win at Millwall and then follow that up with a poor performance against Oxford.

 

[Missing Spark]

Are we going up or not?!

Ge’or

 

[Willglynning]

No doubt Bannan will end up scoring in his debut on Saturday to finally put this to bed.

We have lost 4 of our last 5 away games. We are not going to suddenly go on an unprecedented run and overtake 11 other teams.

 

[pedro]

If we beat Millwall on Saturday…I’ll show my arse in Harrods.

so you'll be going then!!

 

[CarlMcBlade]

so you'll be going then!!

Yup…for my sins.