We Can Still Finish 6th - Pre Matchday 29 - New Graphs & Charts

[Tickhill Blade]

We get a shitload of money to help keep the football team competitive and can build again.

I'm dreading next season in the Championship with our current squad and no parachute payments

It won't be our current squad, as at least a couple of the better players will have been sold to pay the bills. If that makes you feel any better

 

[bruce]

It isn’t realistic, but if some draws become wins then the odd loss isn’t a problem.

The odd loss not a problem, maybe. But with the best will in the world a side that has lost more than 50% of it's games to date is likely to lose more than one or two of the next 18 matches.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

The odd loss not a problem, maybe. But with the best will in the world a side that has lost more than 50% of it's games to date is likely to lose more than one or two of the next 18 matches.

We might beat Millwall as well, and then we'd be 2 points ahead of target straight away - and that would balance losing 2 of the draws in the list.
UTB & FTP!

 

[SUFC Guy]

9 points from 6th place and a game in hand. We are on 35 points with 54 points to play for.

We may or may not make it, but it will be close and exciting so instead of just giving up let's be positive and enjoy it while we can because next season if we don't go up, players are going to leave and with no parachute payments we are going to stuggle to offer the wages that we currently offer. The squad will be less competive, we won't go up and Wilder will leave again. Back to where we were 12/13 years ago.

Let's go for it you mother fkers

UTMB

 

[djbaldken]

As a well known manager once said 'we look great on paper, unfortunately we play our games on head's

Love the graphs. Love the optimism. Keep the faith.

I don't think for a minute we'll make the play offs. And even if we do we know the outcome.

It's the Blades way.

 

[mattbianco1]

To reach 71 pts from here is 12 wins, which allows for 6 defeats.

There are 9 games left where we HAVE to be targeting 3pts, 8 of them are at home:

• Oxford
• Pigs
• WBA
• Birmingham (a)
• Wrexham
• Swansea
• Hull
• Blackburn
• Preston

Win those and we are on 62 points with the following games not accounted for:

• Millwall (a)
• Boro (h)
• Portsmouth (a)
• Coventry (h)
• QPR (a)
• Norwich (a)
• Bristol City (a)
• Watford (a)
• Derby (a)

We would need to achieve 1PPG from those 9 games to hit 71 points

 

[bruce]

We might beat Millwall as well, and then we'd be 2 points ahead of target straight away - and that would balance losing 2 of the draws in the list.
UTB & FTP!

You are ignoring the possibility that we may lose one or two of the projected wins. Given that we have the highest losing rate in the division (apart from Wednesday) I would say losing one or two expected wins is probable rather than possible.

 

[KMC-1889]

Which is impossible to do, but...

Here is the current league table with points extrapolated till the end of the season using actual PPG.

View attachment 229833

In the table predicyted by ucandomagic he has us on 71 pts and 77 pts.

71 would have us level with 6th and 77 would have us 6 clear of them.

In order to stand a chance we have to outperform our PPG over the season so far. But this is a quick calculation based on if everybody maintains theirs...

I think this is a much more accurate way of forecasting, which pretty much says we need to average league winning form for the rest of the season. Given how bipolar our results are this feels incredibly unlikely but happy to concede that others might disagree.

 

[SUFC Guy]

You are ignoring the possibility that we may lose one or two of the projected wins. Given that we have the highest losing rate in the division (apart from Wednesday) I would say losing one or two expected wins is probable rather than possible.

You are ignoring the possibilty that the other play off contenders may not win the games that they're expected to

 

[KMC-1889]

We get a shitload of money to help keep the football team competitive and can build again.

I'm dreading next season in the Championship with our current squad and no parachute payments

We wouldn’t build though, we don’t have the infrastructure for it. We’d spunk the money on shite players and be back here in 3 years.

We’ve had two stabs at the PL in a period of flux and we’ve fucked it up both times.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

We need to start turning losses into draws first.

no, no and no again.

Our hypothetical performance is top 6. Our actual performance is 17th.

We have scored less goals than expected and conceded more than expected. That does not make us a better side than the stats show. it shows we don't score or defend as well as we should.

I have posted about this on other threads.

The xg Table is a good representation of chances created and achieved - your actual league position then reflects how above or below average you are at taking and preventing those actual chances. In other words the xgTable represents your general play, assuming average finishing and saving - the real table reflects how well you match the average for those chances at both ends of the pitch.

The reason we underperform is that we have underscored our xg by about 7 or 8 and exceeded xgagainst by about 8. Ings is the largest culprit at -2.7 for the strikers and Cooper is most to blame for those conceded, at -8.5 for on target shots.

However, we have been improving a lot - if you look at Coolblade 's post on the Ipswich game - we outperformed both xg and xga.

Hull are the very opposite from us - they are 19th in most xGTables and yet they are 4th in the actual table.

Improving striker confidence and Coops getting over whatever was his niggling injury and we are seeing what can happen.

We are Top 6 performers, and if the results match our performances we can still get close to the playoffs - we probably need Top 2 form to make 6th - but we just convincingly beat the top performer - so it is possible.

UTB & FTP!

 

[mattbianco1]

You are ignoring the possibilty that the other play off contenders may not win the games that they're expected to

We also have to play the following teams in the run-in who are between us and the PO's. If we beat these, we definitely close in on them by 3pts*

Brackets show how many points behind them we currently are

-QPR (5) + game in hand
-Birmingham (4) + game in hand
-Wrexham (9) + game in hand
-Swansea (1) + game in hand
-Bristol C (8) + game in hand
-Watford (8)
-Preston (8) + game in hand
-Derby (7) + game in hand

*obviously losing to these teams stretches our chances significantly

 

[Revolution]

I have posted about this on other threads.

The xg Table is a good representation of chances created and achieved - your actual league position then reflects how above or below average you are at taking and preventing those actual chances. In other words the xgTable represents your general play, assuming average finishing and saving - the real table reflects how well you match the average for those chances at both ends of the pitch.

The reason we underperform is that we have underscored our xg by about 7 or 8 and exceeded xgagainst by about 8. Ings is the largest culprit at -2.7 for the strikers and Cooper is most to blame for those conceded, at -8.5 for on target shots.

However, we have been improving a lot - if you look at Coolblade 's post on the Ipswich game - we outperformed both xg and xga.

Hull are the very opposite from us - they are 19th in most xGTables and yet they are 4th in the actual table.

Improving striker confidence and Coops getting over whatever was his niggling injury and we are seeing what can happen.

We are Top 6 performers, and if the results match our performances we can still get close to the playoffs - we probably need Top 2 form to make 6th - but we just convincingly beat the top performer - so it is possible.

UTB & FTP!

One game is very, very small sample size for xg though.

There’s no doubt we are better than, say, we were up to and including Derby, but to make the playoffs requires a level of performance we haven’t reached consistently.

 

[Flumps]

Were fucking gash, utter shite.Have you not been watching this season

Hmm...sounds alot like something a Wednesday fan would say that does.

 

[SUFC Guy]

Hmm...sounds alot like something a Wednesday fan would say that does.

Think that was tongue in cheek mate

 

[SwitchBLADE Smiles]

Is it mathematically possible? Absolutely.

Is it likely? Absolutely not.

We have to best about half the leagues performances, for the rest of the season, by at least 3 wins to their 0, just to scrape in.

 

[Flumps]

Think that was tongue in cheek mate

I know but what he said definitely sounds like something I'd be saying if I was a Wednesday fan right now

 

[ATL Recs]

I have posted about this on other threads.

The xg Table is a good representation of chances created and achieved - your actual league position then reflects how above or below average you are at taking and preventing those actual chances. In other words the xgTable represents your general play, assuming average finishing and saving - the real table reflects how well you match the average for those chances at both ends of the pitch.

The reason we underperform is that we have underscored our xg by about 7 or 8 and exceeded xgagainst by about 8. Ings is the largest culprit at -2.7 for the strikers and Cooper is most to blame for those conceded, at -8.5 for on target shots.

However, we have been improving a lot - if you look at Coolblade 's post on the Ipswich game - we outperformed both xg and xga.

Hull are the very opposite from us - they are 19th in most xGTables and yet they are 4th in the actual table.

Improving striker confidence and Coops getting over whatever was his niggling injury and we are seeing what can happen.

We are Top 6 performers, and if the results match our performances we can still get close to the playoffs - we probably need Top 2 form to make 6th - but we just convincingly beat the top performer - so it is possible.

UTB & FTP!

One game !!!!

 

[mattbianco1]

We wouldn’t build though, we don’t have the infrastructure for it. We’d spunk the money on shite players and be back here in 3 years.

We’ve had two stabs at the PL in a period of flux and we’ve fucked it up both times.

I meant be competitive in the Championship.
My worry is that now parachute money is going, we'll be unable to compete next season.

We really need some shrewd signings this summer.

At least if we go up and stink the place out, we have the PL money to back us up for a few more years

 

[elgoog44]

One game at a time and safe from Relegation first, then maybe just maybe sixth who knows but still not at the right end of the Table yet by a long way.

another question in all this is who goes and who comes in during the window, as that would then set a marker for if it is realistic to still get play offs.

 

[bruce]

You are ignoring the possibilty that the other play off contenders may not win the games that they're expected to

No, I'm not. I'm just looking at the probability that we will need to get to at least 70 points from our remaining 18 games. And that is quite a low total, but Looking at the current table table Wrexham are in 6th and Bristol City in 7th, with 44 and 43 points respectively. Both have played 29 games Wrexham are accumulating points at slightly more than 1.5 per game, Bristol City at1.48 per game Watford are in 8th and have 43 points, but from from 28 games. Again, accumulating at over 1.5 points per game. If they all continue at their current rate, 70 is going to be the likely target.
It seems to me unlikely that all three will fail to do that over their remaining games. Just as It is possible that one or more may slip up, it is also possible that one or more of them may put in a good run and accumulate more points. Just as some of the clubs behind them may do.

For us to get above 70 points, we need 2 points per game for 18 more games. Not impossible and we have shown we can do it for a time. But to do it over 18 more games is a big ask.

 

[bruce]

9 points from 6th place and a game in hand.

UTMB

8 points from 8th place with no games in hand.

 

[Houston_Blade]

Not sure if it’s been mentioned by others but we’ve only drawn 2 so far, I’d say it’s unlikely we draw 5+ games between now and the end of the season.

The song should be changed to “Win or Lose, we’re going on the booze” or summat!

 

[SUFC Guy]

8 points from 8th place with no games in hand.

We beat them at their place and then it's down to 5 points.

It is far too early to give up. I could understand being 9 points off with 5 or 6 games to go would be unlikely (not impossible) but we have18 games left to play. 10 are at home and 8 are away.

Nobody is saying it's a cert that we will do it, but on the other hand there are so many saying it's a cert that we won't. It's too early to call.

*Just to add to this, let's keep this thread going until the time that we can all agree that it's impossible

 

[SUFC Guy]

No, I'm not. I'm just looking at the probability that we will need to get to at least 70 points from our remaining 18 games. And that is quite a low total, but Looking at the current table table Wrexham are in 6th and Bristol City in 7th, with 44 and 43 points respectively. Both have played 29 games Wrexham are accumulating points at slightly more than 1.5 per game, Bristol City at1.48 per game Watford are in 8th and have 43 points, but from from 28 games. Again, accumulating at over 1.5 points per game. If they all continue at their current rate, 70 is going to be the likely target.
It seems to me unlikely that all three will fail to do that over their remaining games. Just as It is possible that one or more may slip up, it is also possible that one or more of them may put in a good run and accumulate more points. Just as some of the clubs behind them may do.

For us to get above 70 points, we need 2 points per game for 18 more games. Not impossible and we have shown we can do it for a time. But to do it over 18 more games is a big ask.

There's a lot of 'if's' in there when relating to form.

 

[sitwell]

We wouldn’t build though, we don’t have the infrastructure for it. We’d spunk the money on shite players and be back here in 3 years.

We’ve had two stabs at the PL in a period of flux and we’ve fucked it up both times.

4 posts to project your misery on this thread alone ,we get it .

 

[Missing Spark]

It isn’t realistic, but if some draws become wins then the odd loss isn’t a problem.

Well for starters we’re beating and not drawing with Cov and Boro. Exciting times x

 

[mattbianco1]

We have to best about half the leagues performances, for the rest of the season, by at least 3 wins to their 0, just to scrape in.

Not quite.
We aren't out of the Play Off race yet because the run-in is stacked with the teams we need to catch.

• We still have to play 8 of the teams between us and the Play‑Off places.
• We have a game in hand on 7 of them.
• We’re currently a maximum of 9 points behind the highest of those teams (Wrexham).

Lets assume we’ve beaten Oxford, the gap to Wrexham drops to 6 points, and we still have to play them. Beat Wrexham and we’re 3 points behind the current 6th‑placed side.
From there, we’d only need to outperform Wrexham by 4 points across the remaining fixtures. If we were sitting in 7th, that’s exactly the kind of scenario we’d call “well in the mix”.

The complication is the number of teams in between. Assuming we win our game in hand, we’d need to outperform the other teams by the following points:

• QPR: 3
• Birmingham: 2
• Swansea: game in hand puts us above
• Bristol City: 6
• Watford: 9
• Preston: 6
• Derby: 5

Now imagine we’ve:

• won the game in hand, and
• beaten every one of those teams (plus Wrexham).

At that point, the remaining gaps become:

• Watford: 6
• Wrexham: 3
• Bristol City: 3
• Preston: 3
• Derby: 2
• QPR: already above
• Birmingham: already above
• Swansea: already above

Watford are the only side we don’t have a game in hand on.

A very simplified scenario...
If our next 8 games were against all those teams, and we won the lot, +the game in hand, while every other team won 7 of their 8 matches (losing only to us), the table with 9 games left would look like this:

Team	Points
Stoke*	66
Leicester*	62
Wrexham	62
Southampton*	61
Bristol City	61
Watford	61 (game in hand)
Preston	61
Derby	60
United	59
QPR	58
Birmingham	57
Swansea	54

*as we don't have to play these teams, i've given them 8 wins from 8, which puts them in a false position

The point i'm trying to make is that even in a conservative scenario where everyone else keeps winning, beating the teams around us drags us right into the mix.

The fixtures give us a direct route back into contention — we just need to take advantage of them.

 

[vas borbokis]

You are ignoring the possibility that we may lose one or two of the projected wins. Given that we have the highest losing rate in the division (apart from Wednesday) I would say losing one or two expected wins is probable rather than possible.

But clearly we are not the same team that lost so many games early on.

 

[SUFC Guy]

But clearly we are not the same team that lost so many games early on.

Exactly. Can you imaging where we would be if Selles was still in charge now? We'd be not that many points above the grunters.