The Numbers Thread (Will Be Updated After Each Game)

[Pinchy]

I think it comes down to that game. Hudds win, 88 ints is probably enough. Wendy win, probably need 92...

Absolutely no chance at all that 92 will be required!

£100 to Foxy?

 

[Flatulent_Bob]

A fiver donation to Foxy?

I say nearer to 87 than 90.

As for the chasing pack - its just the Pigs now. Forget the others.

Done!

I can't really lose, if we go up with less than 88 points I'll be more than happy to throw a fiver in.

 

[Pinchy]

Done!

I can't really lose, if we go up with less than 88 points I'll be more than happy to throw a fiver in.

I like your style, Bob.

But if it's 88 I win - nearer to 87 than 90: 89 you win. Of course it's not actual points gained - I hope we get 97 naturally - but how many would secure 2nd place e.g. Pigs get 87 or 88 and we go up, I win even if we get lots more (superior goal difference)

Phew! All that for a fiver.

P.S. If I win I'll buy you a pint (of real ale) out of Foxy's winnings.

 

[Flatulent_Bob]

Thanks for the explanation Pinchy, but I had grasped the whole nearer to 87 than 90

If the porkers don't get many more points this season I'll be a happy bunny, but I think 3rd will be over 88 unfortunately.

Pint of real ale? Before a match? I'd be interested in the venue although as you are a Derbyshire lad, I may bump into you in "The Poets" sometime over the summer.

 

[Selly]

Whatever, it is much better to be 2 points ahead and so far a superior GD. But it ain't over till its over and just because we hate Wednesday you just can't underestimate them.

Apparently Jones lost 2 in 20 when Wolves got into the play-offs and beat us at Cardiff. You under estimate him and them at your peril.

Spot on. I think a lot of people are seeing Easter Saturday as a chance to increase our lead (myself included)

Wednesday could win at Huddersfield, we did after all, and results would seem to indicate that we are somewhat comparable across the season...

 

[Selly]

Absolutely no chance at all that 92 will be required!

£100 to Foxy?

Er, no. I am notoriously bad at predictions...

 

[blade too long]

Still think Wednesdays recent results have been very flattering for them , theyve had some real easy fixtures, which its now our turn to get as they play 4 top 10 sides in their last 6 and we get 4 bottom 10 teams, and the 2 top 10 we play are stuttering badly

 

[blade too long]

for all our piggy loving fans who say last 6 results are important heres the recent form table

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2011-2012/form-table/full

1

Sheffield Wednesday​

6 5 1 0 3 0 14 4 +10 16 2.67
2

Sheffield United​

6 4 2 0 2 0 14 5 +9 14 2.33​

repeat that next 6 and we go up on GD
so even that favours us now

 

[Darren]

Indeed I think the fixtures are very even now. Weds have Town and Carlisle, we have MK and Stevenage and both might be out of their crap runs in a few games time. Last game of the season its advantage Pigs as they are at home, both of us playing relegation threatened sides. We must get 9 points from the next three games.

But the difference is that by the time we play MKD they will have probably have confirmed their play off place and be unable to get automatic. Their priority in their game against us will thus be to avoid injuries. They may even rest 1 or 2 players. As for Stevanage, I fully expect them to have nothing to play for by the time they play us.

Contrast that with Wed v Carlise and Hudds. Both of the latter will be giving their all to get the points they need for automatic/the play offs....

 

[blade too long]

I think both rochdale and exeter are resigned to going down , by the time we play Exeter theyll be long gone
Bournemouth are mid table , their players are booking their summer holidays
Orient .ditto
Stevenage are on the crest of a slump as are MK Dons who have blown it big style last 4

 

[Selly]

But the difference is that by the time we play MKD they will have probably have confirmed their play off place and be unable to get automatic. Their priority in their game against us will thus be to avoid injuries. They may even rest 1 or 2 players. As for Stevanage, I fully expect them to have nothing to play for by the time they play us.

Contrast that with Wed v Carlise and Hudds. Both of the latter will be giving their all to get the points they need for automatic/the play offs....

This was kind of my point above. The fact that our games against the "tougher" opponants is towards the end of the season is a good thing as.

1. It allows us to potentially build a lead whilst Wendy play their "tough" fixtures (Next 3 - Hudds (A), Oldham (H), Colchester (A)) - we get 9 points for our next 3 (Bournemouth (H), Rochdale (A), Orient(H)) and we leave ourselves with every chance of a 6 point gap (or more) with 3 to play.
2. They might be on the beach/avoiding injuries by the time we play them

 

[BusheyBlade]

But the difference is that by the time we play MKD they will have probably have confirmed their play off place and be unable to get automatic. Their priority in their game against us will thus be to avoid injuries. They may even rest 1 or 2 players.

This can work against us though as the players they bring in will be determined to get a place in the play offs whereas the others would be potentially more likely to be put less effort in to avoid injury ahead of the play offs.

 

[blade too long]

This can work against us though as the players they bring in will be determined to get a place in the play offs whereas the others would be potentially more likely to be put less effort in to avoid injury ahead of the play offs.

like how much better we were at walsall when we brought in 4 new defenders you mean

 

[BusheyBlade]

like how much better we were at walsall when we brought in 4 new defenders you mean

Exactly Though there's a difference between 4 new defenders including 2 loanees signed the day of the game and using some squad players who have been involved all season.

Having said all that, does this conversation matter? It's in our own hands and we have a run of 3 games coming up after which everything could be a lot more rosy.

 

[anglian blade]

Stevenage are on the crest of a slump as are MK Dons who have blown it big style last 4

Stevenage have not lost in their last 9 games - the best run in the division - they are just drawing too many

 

[Selly]

Exactly Though there's a difference between 4 new defenders including 2 loanees signed the day of the game and using some squad players who have been involved all season.

Having said all that, does this conversation matter? It's in our own hands and we have a run of 3 games coming up after which everything could be a lot more rosy.

We could, theoretically, be promoted after the third of those games as well...although thats fairly unlikely...

 

[Ollessendro]

Interesting thread this.

We have the advantage. No mistake about that. However, we cannot disrgard Wednesday. They are not a great team, but are very much on form. Personally I think they'll drop points between now and the end of the season. Even when we were flying we lost a couple of games, for example. Next week will hopefully be one of those, Carlisle will be tricky and the trip to Colchester might be the place too. I have been saying for a while that this will go down to the wire. Jones has got them fired up and they will run us close. It is up to us to do our stuff.

My last sentance is key for me. We have a fully fit squad. This squad deserves to be in 2nd on the seasons form. Look at our goal difference and the points total. We deserve to be where we are. Our fixtures are not particularly tricky (though the pressure may tell). We have a striker on fire, the best midfielder in the division and a rock solid defence. We have quality that can open teams up all over the pitch (Cressy, Quinn, Willo, Lowton etc) and teams should be dreading playing us. Let's concentrate on this. Our next 3 games are straight forward. Let's stay calm, get focused, not be complacent and dispatch these teams. Then hopefully we'll have a bit more distance between us and the pack by the time we travel to Stadium MK.

 

[Selly]

Interesting thread this.

We have the advantage. No mistake about that. However, we cannot disrgard Wednesday. They are not a great team, but are very much on form. Personally I think they'll drop points between now and the end of the season. Even when we were flying we lost a couple of games, for example. Next week will hopefully be one of those, Carlisle will be tricky and the trip to Colchester might be the place too. I have been saying for a while that this will go down to the wire. Jones has got them fired up and they will run us close. It is up to us to do our stuff.

My last sentance is key for me. We have a fully fit squad. This squad deserves to be in 2nd on the seasons form. Look at our goal difference and the points total. We deserve to be where we are. Our fixtures are not particularly tricky (though the pressure may tell). We have a striker on fire, the best midfielder in the division and a rock solid defence. We have quality that can open teams up all over the pitch (Cressy, Quinn, Willo, Lowton etc) and teams should be dreading playing us. Let's concentrate on this. Our next 3 games are straight forward. Let's stay calm, get focused, not be complacent and dispatch these teams. Then hopefully we'll have a bit more distance between us and the pack by the time we travel to Stadium MK.

I suspect that by the time we go to Stadium MK, Huddersfield might just be the closest team to us...

 

[oldblade]

I the last 10 years, the highest return by a third placed team has been 87 points, so get 88 and you'd think we would be extremely unlucky to not go up automatically...

Season form says we need 90 points, recent form says we need 93. So you may be right...

I know it was in a different division, but Sunderland once failed to get promoted from the championship to premier league after getting 90 points.

 

[BladeFisher]

Interesting thread this.

We have the advantage. No mistake about that. However, we cannot disrgard Wednesday. They are not a great team, but are very much on form. Personally I think they'll drop points between now and the end of the season. Even when we were flying we lost a couple of games, for example. Next week will hopefully be one of those, Carlisle will be tricky and the trip to Colchester might be the place too. I have been saying for a while that this will go down to the wire. Jones has got them fired up and they will run us close. It is up to us to do our stuff.

My last sentance is key for me. We have a fully fit squad. This squad deserves to be in 2nd on the seasons form. Look at our goal difference and the points total. We deserve to be where we are. Our fixtures are not particularly tricky (though the pressure may tell). We have a striker on fire, the best midfielder in the division and a rock solid defence. We have quality that can open teams up all over the pitch (Cressy, Quinn, Willo, Lowton etc) and teams should be dreading playing us. Let's concentrate on this. Our next 3 games are straight forward. Let's stay calm, get focused, not be complacent and dispatch these teams. Then hopefully we'll have a bit more distance between us and the pack by the time we travel to Stadium MK.

You're spot on Ollie. Its just the one game at a time stuff really. OK it's football but it could be any other sport/game/business.

Say its a marathon, which it is, Mr Wednesday has caught Mr Blade but Mr Wednesday (he with the pointy ears) then sees Mr Blade (he with the grey steely complexion) pulls ahead a bit. So Mr Wednesday (who is not Israeli) has to push harder to catch Mr Blade or guess where he might tire (coming up to a tougher obstacle) so that he can catch him up. All that is happening at the moment is Mr Wednesday gets close or even overtakes Mr Blade, who then catches him up passes him and remains just in front of him.

It is a battle of wills. Mr Blade has the advantage all he has to do is match Mr Wednesday's performance from now on in (note BTL not the previous 6 sectors), whilst Mr Wednesday has to virtually go superhuman to catch him and hope Mr Blade stumbles on a bit of academic material discarded by a Milton Keynes professor or a committe paper from a Hertfordshire councillor.

 

[BladeFisher]

But the difference is that by the time we play MKD they will have probably have confirmed their play off place and be unable to get automatic. Their priority in their game against us will thus be to avoid injuries. They may even rest 1 or 2 players. As for Stevanage, I fully expect them to have nothing to play for by the time they play us.

Contrast that with Wed v Carlise and Hudds. Both of the latter will be giving their all to get the points they need for automatic/the play offs....

Hang on Carlisle are 3 behind MK with a game in hand. I thought they played same day as we play MK surely the argument might be the other way around? Whatever edge of seat stuff!

 

[Bladesway]

What about catching Charlton? All our talk is about those below us and of course they should be taken into account, but win our remaining games and I think we can win the league. 6 points isn't all that much to claw back. They are probably the team in the worst form out of the top 3.

I've said it since the start however, 2 points per game and we are up. Less than that and we are in the hands of fate.

Pigs have some tricky games coming up and by all accounts they have been far from winning games easy. Away at Huddersfield could make/break their season. They slip up there (assuming we win our games of course) and even a point may not be enough.

I think we are good enough and we have it in our hands. You can't ask for a better position at this point of the season.

 

[Darren]

Hang on Carlisle are 3 behind MK with a game in hand. I thought they played same day as we play MK surely the argument might be the other way around? Whatever edge of seat stuff!

Err.. Carlisle are not relevant. The relevant team from MKD's point of view is the team in 7th. That's currently Notts Co, 7 points behind MKD.

I fully expect MKD to have a play off place wrapped up when we play them.

 

[BladeFisher]

What about catching Charlton? All our talk is about those below us and of course they should be taken into account, but win our remaining games and I think we can win the league. 6 points isn't all that much to claw back. They are probably the team in the worst form out of the top 3.

I've said it since the start however, 2 points per game and we are up. Less than that and we are in the hands of fate.

Pigs have some tricky games coming up and by all accounts they have been far from winning games easy. Away at Huddersfield could make/break their season. They slip up there (assuming we win our games of course) and even a point may not be enough.

I think we are good enough and we have it in our hands. You can't ask for a better position at this point of the season.

If you look at Charlton's fixtutes the best chance of them blowing up is the next three games. Say they lost at Oldham 0-1, Walsall scrapping get a point at the Valley. Charlton then go to Brunton Park the day we play Orient. Could happen we catch them then, but I think the Oldham game is key for them. If they screw that up Walsall may do them.

 

[blade too long]

Steady as she goes , its like 2 steamers heading for port , who will dock first , the one in front by 2 sea miles should unless they lose steam , but all the stokers are fully fit and have big shovels, on the other steamer though stoker madine thinks his crew are better, , bigger shovellers, but normally a much browner substance than coal but if they maintain their momentum Captain Redbeard and his crew , should have the jollier time

 

[metalblade]

Fascinating stuff on this thread, I think the 2 auto spots are open to 3 teams now at a stretch add Huddersfield into the mix. They have to win their next two games to have any hope of catching us and could easily overtake the pigs due to their better GD, even then to catch us they would virtually need to take a point more than us in each remaining game......... it aint gunna happen. I do though see them beating the pigs which could possibly see us 5pts clear next Saturday night, the pigs would then need to take a point per game more than us in the remaining games......... a big ask whatever form the pigs are in.
Our GD is at this stage worth an extra point over the pigs and the games left are fast running out we can maybe live with one slip up the pigs can't, I reckon 88pts might be enough but then again Charlton could still be caught, anything can still happen and the only thing certain is 5 wins and a draw takes us up but reality says less than that will be required.

 

[Blade58]

Fascinating stuff on this thread, I think the 2 auto spots are open to 3 teams now at a stretch add Huddersfield into the mix. They have to win their next two games to have any hope of catching us and could easily overtake the pigs due to their better GD, even then to catch us they would virtually need to take a point more than us in each remaining game......... it aint gunna happen. I do though see them beating the pigs which could possibly see us 5pts clear next Saturday night, the pigs would then need to take a point per game more than us in the remaining games......... a big ask whatever form the pigs are in.
Our GD is at this stage worth an extra point over the pigs and the games left are fast running out we can maybe live with one slip up the pigs can't, I reckon 88pts might be enough but then again Charlton could still be caught, anything can still happen and the only thing certain is 5 wins and a draw takes us up but reality says less than that will be required.

it is my belief hudders will be out the equation for auto after the wendy game, as I have a feeling in mi water that wendy are goner beat them

 

[cooperblade]

Latest spreads

Charlton Points
85/40
95 - 96
Sheffield United Points
79/40
90.5 - 91.5
Sheffield Wednesday Points
77/40
86.5 - 87.5
Huddersfield Town Points
71/39
82.5 - 83.5
MK Dons Points
67/40
77.5 - 78.5
Carlisle Utd Points
64/39
73 - 74

Latest promotion (not auto promotion) betting

Charlton 1/33
SUFC 4/9
weds 5/6
Hudds 7/4
MK Dons 3/1
Carlisle 13/2

 

[Ollessendro]

Say its a marathon, which it is, Mr Wednesday has caught Mr Blade but Mr Wednesday (he with the pointy ears) then sees Mr Blade (he with the grey steely complexion) pulls ahead a bit. So Mr Wednesday (who is not Israeli) has to push harder to catch Mr Blade or guess where he might tire (coming up to a tougher obstacle) so that he can catch him up. All that is happening at the moment is Mr Wednesday gets close or even overtakes Mr Blade, who then catches him up passes him and remains just in front of him.

It is a battle of wills. Mr Blade has the advantage all he has to do is match Mr Wednesday's performance from now on in (note BTL not the previous 6 sectors), whilst Mr Wednesday has to virtually go superhuman to catch him and hope Mr Blade stumbles on a bit of academic material discarded by a Milton Keynes professor or a committe paper from a Hertfordshire councillor.

Good metaphor fisher.

Steady as she goes , its like 2 steamers heading for port , who will dock first , the one in front by 2 sea miles should unless they lose steam , but all the stokers are fully fit and have big shovels, on the other steamer though stoker madine thinks his crew are better, , bigger shovellers, but normally a much browner substance than coal but if they maintain their momentum Captain Redbeard and his crew , should have the jollier time

Choo choo (noise of a steam boat). Loving these metaphors boyz. Can see you both drink ale and like proper football.

 

[BusheyBlade]

Good metaphor fisher.

Yes, though still not quite sure about the Israeli reference to Mr Wednesday!