The Numbers Thread (Will Be Updated After Each Game)

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All this talk of catching Charlton is baffling me.

Let's concentrete on getting a head of steam up to finish 2nd. That's the icing on the cake, 1st would be the cherry on the top !
 
mattbianco1 said:
All this talk of catching Charlton is baffling me.

Let's concentrete on getting a head of steam up to finish 2nd. That's the icing on the cake, 1st would be the cherry on the top !
Click to expand...

Win all our remaining games and we will be Champions (IMO).

And if we do get Charltons lead down to 2 points at some point in the next week or 2, i reckon there is more chance of both us and Wendy catching them than Wendy catching just us...
 
mattbianco1 said:
All this talk of catching Charlton is baffling me.
Click to expand...



Tend to agree. There seems to be a bit of inconsistency of logic going around. The opinion seems to be that a six point gap (to first place) is bridgeable, and yet if we are fortunate enough to find ourselves 5 points ahead of third place by Saturday night that will be virtually insurmountable!
 
oldblade said:
Tend to agree. There seems to be a bit of inconsistency of logic going around. The opinion seems to be that a six point gap (to first place) is bridgeable, and yet if we are fortunate enough to find ourselves 5 points ahead of third place by Saturday night that will be virtually insurmountable!
Click to expand...

It's certainly not insurmountable. It's a massive step in the right direction though.

But to gain by a point a game at this end of the table is generally going to be fairly tricky.

Unless the team you are chasing is in poor form. And Charlton aren`t in great form. Current form indicates that both ourselves and Wendy may very well catch Charlton.
 
I have this funny feeling about Huddersfield. They have a good goal average and if they beat the pigs they will be on a roll. I do think they are a distant threat, but football is a funny game. I would fancy Hudders against pigs in the play offs. :)
 
huddersfield to win tonight and saturday so they go 4th, just so I can photoshop Madines star headline we can pinch 2nd and put 4th, we should be 5 points clear sat night and safe by the 21st
 
blade too long said:
huddersfield to win tonight and saturday so they go 4th, just so I can photoshop Madines star headline we can pinch 2nd and put 4th, we should be 5 points clear sat night and safe by the 21st
Click to expand...

If this was a game of poker I'd prefer to see opponents drop out as early as possible leaving the competition less cluttered. I don't see why Hudds need the motivation of a win tonight to beat Wendy. They can beat 'em anyway.
 
but if they think they cant catch us whats the point, play off berth is virtually assured, so if they think , no matter how small , a shot at 2nd is on as they play before us theyll go for it, then we knock them back by sweeping aside bournemouth
 
JohnDenver said:
If this was a game of poker I'd prefer to see opponents drop out as early as possible leaving the competition less cluttered. I don't see why Hudds need the motivation of a win tonight to beat Wendy. They can beat 'em anyway.
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I tend to agree with this.

Get them dead and buried, and then move onto Wendy.

Especially as Hudds have an easier run in than Wendy.
 
this is football not poker
lets get rid of both, hudders win tonight then on saturday take out the pigs then draw a few as they do
and we go marching on
 



SellyOakBlade said:
I tend to agree with this.

Get them dead and buried, and then move onto Wendy.

Especially as Hudds have an easier run in than Wendy.
Click to expand...

Tough shit lads. Wednesday will be cacking their pants now. :)

Our run in is the easiest of the lot.
 
The chasers

Tonight saw two of the chasing pack play, Huddersfield who have a chance of automatic promotion and Brentford who are trying to reach the play offs.

A win for Huddersfield would maintain their form, whilst a win for Brentford would up their current performance.

As it turned out both won and after today’s results the current 6 game form predictor indicates the following final table points total. As previously the previous points totals are in brackets:

United 93 (89-84-84-82)
Wednesday 93 (90-90-90-90)
Charlton 92 (90-95-94)
Huddersfield 85 (84-87-83-82)
Carlisle 78 (77-72-75-76)
MK Dons 75 (76-79-83-81)
Brentford 71 (67-65-59-53)
Stevenage 68 (69-69-69-68)
Notts Co 68 (66-69-76)
Colchester 58 (58-63-66-67)

The effect of tonight’s results is to move Brentford in with an increasing outside chance of a play off place. On current form they overtake Notts County and Stevenage, but won’t get into the play offs unless MK really collapse. They are however ‘flying’ and along with our neighbours are currently exceeding their seasons performance by nearly a third.

For what it’s worth for the Easter games Charlton will need to lose and United and Wednesday to both win to maintain their current form.

Based on the season’s average ppg (as opposed to the current form) the out turn looks like

Charlton 98 (97)
United 91 (90)
Wednesday 89 (87)
Huddersfield 85 (84)
MK Dons 77 (79)
Carlisle 75 (74)
Stevenage 70 (70)
Notts Co 69 (67)
Brentford 68 (66)
Colchester 61 (61)

As for performance against the seasons average we can see how current form (last 6 games) compares against the seasons form and which sides are doing better or worse than their current season's average. Figures in brackets are a comparison with the best and worst previous fixtures performance over the last few weeks.

United 118% (94%-69%)
Wednesday 139% (123%-125%)
Charlton 55% (55%-77%)
Huddersfield 99% (107%-91%)
Carlisle 122% (125%-96%)
MK Dons 80% (78%-85%)
Stevenage 88% (87%-87%)
Notts Co 89% (91%-113%)
Brentford 136% (108%-104%)
Colchester 63% (62%-97%)

The other thing which has changed tonight is Orient’s slide back in towards the relegation zone. This means out of United’s remaining 6 games 5 are against teams in or near the relegation or promotion zones. By contrast Wednesday have 4 against such teams (Colchester are no longer likely to get in the play offs). It is too simplistic to say, “oh our opposition is lower ranked than theirs” in reference to Wednesday’s games.

As the season gets to its finale things obviously become clearer, teams start to drop out of the promotion/relegation race, but at the moment it is just too close to call.
 
BladeFisher said:
The other thing which has changed tonight is Orient’s slide back in towards the relegation zone. This means out of United’s remaining 6 games 5 are against teams in or near the relegation or promotion zones. By contrast Wednesday have 4 against such teams (Colchester are no longer likely to get in the play offs). It is too simplistic to say, “oh our opposition is lower ranked than theirs” in reference to Wednesday’s games.
Click to expand...

But has has been pointed out by the time we play our last 3 fixtures, MKD (safely in the play offs), Stevenage (no longer in play off contention) and Exeter (down) are likely to have nothing to play for.
 
Update...

Charlton
- 6 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 13th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 11 = 1.83 PPG (3 wins, 2 draws. 1 left)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 5 = 0.76 PPG (1 win, 2 draws, 3 left) (5 draws, 1 left)
- Champions Magic Number: 13 = 2.17 PPG (4 wins, 1 draw, one left)

Sheff Utd
- 6 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 16th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 17 = 2.83 PPG (Impossible from 6 Games)
-'Real' Top 2 Magic Number: 18 = 3.00 PPG (6 wins)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 11 = 1.76 PPG (3 wins, 2 draws, 1 left)

Sheff Wed
- 6 Games to Play (Average Pos 11th, Average Form 9th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 21 = 3.50 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 15 = 2.58 PPG (5 wins, 2 left)

Huddersfield
- 6 Games to Play (Average Pos 14th, Average Form 12th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 24 = 4.00 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 18 = 3.00 PPG (6 wins)

MK Dons
- 6 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 11th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 31 = 5.17 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 25 = 4.14 PPG (Out of their hands)

Carlisle
- 7 games to Play (Average Pos 12th, Average Form 11th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 34 = 4.86 PPG (Out of their hands)
-Top 2 Projected Number: 28 = 3.98 PPG (Out of their hands)

Stevenage
- 7 Games to Play (Average Pos 11th, Average Form 10th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 39 = 5.57 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 33 = 4.69 PPG (Out of their hands)

Notts County
- 6 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 13th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 38 = 6.33 PPG (Impossible)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 32 = 5.33 PPG (Out of their hands)


Max Possible Points

Charlton - 103
Sheff Utd - 97
Wednesday - 95
Huddersfield - 92
MK Dons - 85
Carlisle - 85
Stevenage - 80
Notts County - 78

Projected Points

Charlton - 98
Sheff Utd - 91
Wednesday - 89
Huddersfield - 85
MK Dons - 77
Carlisle - 75
Stevenage - 70
Notts County - 69

Form Scores

Sheff Utd - 6.32
Notts County - 5.56
Sheff Wed - 5.11
Carlisle - 4.50
Huddersfield - 3.59
MK Dons - 3.61
Charlton - 3.40
Stevenage - 3.39
 
SotonBlade said:
Still don't get this o_O
Click to expand...

To be fair I've said very little about how the form scores are worked out, but everything else is simple.

Magic Number - amount of points required for your team to gain, or your rivals to lose to guarantee promotion.

Projected Number - number of points required to gain promotion based on season form.

Max Points - the points you would achieve if you won every remaining game.

Projected Points - the points you will achieve if you maintain your season PPG until the end.

Form Scores - a score that takes into account the current form of the last 6 teams you've played. The highest theoretical score you could get here would be 15.38, which would be achieved by playing the entire top 6 form teams and winning all 6 games. And I'm fairly sure that's impossible as you would have to be amongst that top 6 if you won 6 on the bounce! Meaning the top possible score is actually 14.63...

Basically, it uses the average form position of the last 6 teams you've played as a modifier against the points you gained to give a score, the higher the score is, the better you are performing!
 
Darren said:
But has has been pointed out by the time we play our last 3 fixtures, MKD (safely in the play offs), Stevenage (no longer in play off contention) and Exeter (down) are likely to have nothing to play for.
Click to expand...

It may be Darren bit presuming that now is risky. With MK's current form they might lose a couple of games and Stevenage win so its all back in the melting pot. Similarly with Exter playing other relegation threatened teams anything can happen.

If it was three games to go and one was relying on MK to lose all three and Stevenage to win all three, I'd agree, but steady as she goes. One game at a time and all that!

It is better to be at this end of the table than the other but no chicken counting now, we do have recent (unpleasant) memories of that.
 
BladeFisher said:
It may be Darren bit presuming that now is risky. With MK's current form they might lose a couple of games and Stevenage win so its all back in the melting pot. Similarly with Exter playing other relegation threatened teams anything can happen.

If it was three games to go and one was relying on MK to lose all three and Stevenage to win all three, I'd agree, but steady as she goes. One game at a time and all that!

It is better to be at this end of the table than the other but no chicken counting now, we do have recent (unpleasant) memories of that.
Click to expand...

The operative word is "likely". MKD 7 points clear of 7th are likely to have their play off place guaranteed with 3 games left, Stevange (5 points off 6th) are likely to have nothing to play for with 2 games left and Exeter (8 points from safety) are likely to be down with 1 game left.

As you say things can change, but these look the most likely outcomes.
 
Darren said:
The operative word is "likely". MKD 7 points clear of 7th are likely to have their play off place guaranteed with 3 games left, Stevange (5 points off 6th) are likely to have nothing to play for with 2 games left and Exeter (8 points from safety) are likely to be down with 1 game left.

As you say things can change, but these look the most likely outcomes.
Click to expand...

Lets concentrate on beating Bournemouth, then Rochdale, then Orient.

Do that and we'll be in a cracking position IMO.
 
dannycorker said:
To be fair I've said very little about how the form scores are worked out, but everything else is simple.

Magic Number - amount of points required for your team to gain, or your rivals to lose to guarantee promotion.

Projected Number - number of points required to gain promotion based on season form.

Max Points - the points you would achieve if you won every remaining game.

Projected Points - the points you will achieve if you maintain your season PPG until the end.

Form Scores - a score that takes into account the current form of the last 6 teams you've played. The highest theoretical score you could get here would be 15.38, which would be achieved by playing the entire top 6 form teams and winning all 6 games. And I'm fairly sure that's impossible as you would have to be amongst that top 6 if you won 6 on the bounce! Meaning the top possible score is actually 14.63...

Basically, it uses the average form position of the last 6 teams you've played as a modifier against the points you gained to give a score, the higher the score is, the better you are performing!
Click to expand...
thanks danny.

However, I will attempt to read this on Friday when I have no work to think about and will have probably had a lye-in till about 10am. I may then be able to process it! :D
 
The average (8 game form) form position of teams around us:

Charlton - H 10.00 A 13.33
Blades H 18.33 A 18.67
Wendy H8.33 A7.67
Udds H6 A 16.33

On current form, we undoubtedly have the easiest run-in.
 



The play off chasers

Today saw four of the play off chasers in action and Notts County got their campaign back on track, whilst Carlisle’s form dipped conceding a late goal at Wycombe and Stevenage have now not won in six games.

The updated 6 game form predictor indicates the following final table points total. As previously the previous points totals are in brackets:

United 93 (89-84-82)
Wednesday 93 (90)
Charlton 92 (90-95-94)
Huddersfield 85 (84-87-83-82)
MK Dons 75 (76-79-83-81)
Carlisle 75 (78-77-72-75-76)
Brentford 71 (67-65-59-53)
Notts Co 71 (68-66-69-76)
Stevenage 64 (68-69-69-69-68)
Colchester 58 (58-63-66-67)

The effect of today’s results is to move Brentford and Notts County much closer to 6th place by virtue of Carlisle’s late slip. If MK only get a point tomorrow they will be predicted on form to finish only one point above Brentford and County.

Based on the season’s average ppg (as opposed to the current form) the out turn looks like

Charlton 98 (97)
United 91 (90)
Wednesday 89 (87)
Huddersfield 85 (84)
MK Dons 77 (79)
Carlisle 75 (75)
Notts Co 71 (69)
Stevenage 68 (70)
Brentford 68 (66)
Colchester 61 (61)

As for performance against the seasons average we can see how current form (last 6 games) compares against the seasons form and which sides are doing better or worse than their current season's average. Figures in brackets are a comparison with the best and worst previous fixtures performance over the last few weeks.

United 118% (94%-69%)
Wednesday 139% (123%-125%)
Charlton 55% (55%-77%)
Huddersfield 99% (107%-91%)
MK Dons 80% (78%-85%)
Carlisle 103% (125%-96%)
Brentford 136% (108%-104%)
Notts Co 108% (89%-113%)
Stevenage 56% (88%-87%)
Colchester 63% (62%-97%)

Orient continue their slide back towards the relegation zone, whilst Wycombe look increasingly likely to escape. Shame their last game is away!
 
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