The Numbers Thread (Will Be Updated After Each Game)

[dannycorker]

Bit of a late update, had a busy week!

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 14 = 1.75 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 5 = 0.62 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 16 = 2.00 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 23 = 2.88 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 14 = 1.74 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 30 = 3.33 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 21 = 2.37 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 32 = 3.56 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 23 = 2.60 PPG

Notts County- Top 2 Magic Number: 42 = 5.25 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 33 = 4.17 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 27 = 3.38 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 18 = 2.30 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 106
Sheff Utd - 97
Wednesday - 95
Huddersfield - 95
MK Dons - 93
Notts County - 80

Projected Points

Charlton - 99
Sheff Utd - 88
Wednesday - 86
Huddersfield - 85
MK Dons - 82
Notts County - 68

 

[BladeFisher]

Bit of a late update, had a busy week!

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 14 = 1.75 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 5 = 0.62 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 16 = 2.00 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 23 = 2.88 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 14 = 1.74 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 30 = 3.33 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 21 = 2.37 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 32 = 3.56 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 23 = 2.60 PPG

Notts County- Top 2 Magic Number: 42 = 5.25 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 33 = 4.17 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 27 = 3.38 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 18 = 2.30 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 106
Sheff Utd - 97
Wednesday - 95
Huddersfield - 95
MK Dons - 93
Notts County - 80

Projected Points

Charlton - 99
Sheff Utd - 88
Wednesday - 86
Huddersfield - 85
MK Dons - 82
Notts County - 68

One major flaw with your system is that your out turn is based upon the average points over the whole season from now, whereas in reality that is not likely to happen because teams go on runs or get stuck in ruts.

I have done a similar thing but based on the last six results ie form. This predicts

Charlton 95
Wednesday 90
United 84
MK Dons 83
Huddersfield 83
Carlisle 75
Stevenage 69
Notts Co 66
Colchester 66

In order to maintain their average points per game over the season the teams would need to get additional points as follows

Charlton 17
Wednesday 15
United 15
MK Dons 16
Huddersfield 17
Carlisle 16
Stevenage 16
Notts Co 12
Colchester 12

but current form (last 6 games) shows that some sides are doing better or worse than their current season's average.

In fact the details are

Charlton 77%
Wednesday 125%
United 69%
MK Dons 103%
Huddersfield 91%
Carlisle 116%
Stevenage 86%
Notts Co 113%
Colchester 121%

Now it would appear that teams on a good run, like Wednesday are performing 25% better now than their season's average and Utd are 31% worse. In going forward it is much more likely that current form is a better guide. However, ..... it is unlikely Wednesday would maintain such a ratio from now to the end of the seson, but not impossible and indeed for them to get 19 points is well within their capabilities.

What we need to do is step it up. The Notts result was more than welcome, but we cant just drop points against Chesterfield, it is a must win, because the more the pressure is put on Wednesday to continually play catch up, the harder it gets for them psychologically even if they were to maintain this 2.3 points per game they are now on (I think they will lose to Huddersfield and Carlisle and that's it).

Its all good stuff and it would be interesting to see how the model I have done works.

Away from analysis and into gut reaction I think it is just too close to call. Ironically I think Utd's achilles heel is Evans not McDonald. If we lose him ... Anyhow come on you O's (buys packet of Cheerio's).

 

[Mad Mick]

Cheerio? You leavin?

 

[blade too long]

Now it would appear that teams on a good run, like Wednesday are performing 25% better now than their season's average and Utd are 31% worse. In going forward it is much more likely that current form is a better guide. However, ..... it is unlikely Wednesday would maintain such a ratio from now to the end of the seson, but not impossible and indeed for them to get 19 points is well within their capabilities. (wtf is that all about)

.

The editor of monster trucks isnt that confident about Wednesday ,your bulling them up (sure your not GM) , wish you had that much confidence in us

recent form 6 games shows wednesday playing the shittiest form teams in the division, while we played 3 play off contenders away

take the form guide to 10 games and we are more or less level,you see a flaw in his analysis but think last 6 is flawless ,, nah
Wednesdays only scored more than 2 3 times in 2012 v bury bournemouth and a then poor scunny team , hardly the divisions elite

Why not use the old adage your only as good as your last result , then we piss it

 

[BladeFisher]

The editor of monster trucks isnt that confident about Wednesday ,your bulling them up (sure your not GM) , wish you had that much confidence in us

recent form 6 games shows wednesday playing the shittiest form teams in the division, while we played 3 play off contenders away

take the form guide to 10 games and we are more or less level,you see a flaw in his analysis but think last 6 is flawless ,, nah
Wednesdays only scored more than 2 3 times in 2012 v bury bournemouth and a then poor scunny team , hardly the divisions elite

Why not use the old adage your only as good as your last result , then we piss it

Oh so you reckon Utd are one of the shittiest teams in the division eh (Weds played us 6 games ago)?

Ah what you're forgetting is all I am doing is playing with a 6 game model (ooh er missus). Put it another way, if you were to move to a parallel universe aka the Premiership would you argue Spurs are going to "piss it" because on average over the season so far they have performed better than Chelsea even though at the moment they have clearly wobbled?

All good stuff, but McDonald and Ched are the key. What's the latest on Mr Evans, when does he have his day in court so to speak?

 

[dannycorker]

Oh so you reckon Utd are one of the shittiest teams in the division eh (Weds played us 6 games ago)?

Ah what you're forgetting is all I am doing is playing with a 6 game model (ooh er missus). Put it another way, if you were to move to a parallel universe aka the Premiership would you argue Spurs are going to "piss it" because on average over the season so far they have performed better than Chelsea even though at the moment they have clearly wobbled?

All good stuff, but McDonald and Ched are the key. What's the latest on Mr Evans, when does he have his day in court so to speak?

The problem with taking the last 6 games is that 6 games aren't equivalent, whilst a season more or less is. In fact we've played more tough games than Wednesday if anything throughout the season. Wednesday have played the two worst form teams in the division (Bury and Bournemouth), 2 of the bottom 3 (Walsall and Rochdale) and two teams on great runs (Us and County). All with no injuries and including a derby where form goes out of the window. Our last 6 games we played Wednesday whilst missing a key player (KMac), Oldham and Walsall who are admittedly low in the league and without form, but with the most ridiculous injuries I've ever seen since I've been going to the games. We then had a home game against an in-form Tranmere side, before 2 away games at playoff chasing, in-form teams. All missing our key midfielder save the County game. I'm not saying that now the injury crisis is almost over we're going to win every game, but when you look at the games played and the circumstances of each club during that time, it's hardly fair to make conclusions. If Wednesday played the games we just played without having Antonio fit how many points do you think they'd have got?

 

[blade too long]

wednesdays played all the bottom 5 twice, they lost 3 of them mind
we hudders and mk dons all have 3 games left v the basement boys
the average team we have left to play is 16th , wednesdays last 8 average out as 10th so they are half as hard again as ours , in theory

 

[Selly]

One major flaw with your system is that your out turn is based upon the average points over the whole season from now, whereas in reality that is not likely to happen because teams go on runs or get stuck in ruts.

I have done a similar thing but based on the last six results ie form. This predicts

Charlton 95
Wednesday 90
United 84
MK Dons 83
Huddersfield 83
Carlisle 75
Stevenage 69
Notts Co 66
Colchester 66

In order to maintain their average points per game over the season the teams would need to get additional points as follows

Charlton 17
Wednesday 15
United 15
MK Dons 16
Huddersfield 17
Carlisle 16
Stevenage 16
Notts Co 12
Colchester 12

but current form (last 6 games) shows that some sides are doing better or worse than their current season's average.

In fact the details are

Charlton 77%
Wednesday 125%
United 69%
MK Dons 103%
Huddersfield 91%
Carlisle 116%
Stevenage 86%
Notts Co 113%
Colchester 121%

Now it would appear that teams on a good run, like Wednesday are performing 25% better now than their season's average and Utd are 31% worse. In going forward it is much more likely that current form is a better guide. However, ..... it is unlikely Wednesday would maintain such a ratio from now to the end of the seson, but not impossible and indeed for them to get 19 points is well within their capabilities.

What we need to do is step it up. The Notts result was more than welcome, but we cant just drop points against Chesterfield, it is a must win, because the more the pressure is put on Wednesday to continually play catch up, the harder it gets for them psychologically even if they were to maintain this 2.3 points per game they are now on (I think they will lose to Huddersfield and Carlisle and that's it).

Its all good stuff and it would be interesting to see how the model I have done works.

Away from analysis and into gut reaction I think it is just too close to call. Ironically I think Utd's achilles heel is Evans not McDonald. If we lose him ... Anyhow come on you O's (buys packet of Cheerio's).

Argues all you like about the validity or not of 6/8/10 game form, but this is a cracking peice of analysis by BladeFisher, and is exactly the sort of thing that belongs in this thread. I like it...

 

[BladeFisher]

Following on from Saturday 24th fixtures the 6 game form predictor for the final table points total is as follows with the previous two results in brackets:

Charlton 90 (95-94)
Wednesday 90 (90-90)
Huddersfield 87 (83-82)
United 84 (84-82)
MK Dons 79 (83-81)
Carlisle 72 (75-76)
Stevenage 69 (69-68)
Notts Co 66 (69-76)
Colchester 63 (66-67)

Thus after a set of fixtures you can see the impact of what that result has done to the projected final table based on current form.

So based on the season’s average ppg (as opposed to the current form) what does the out turn look like

Charlton 97
United 88
Wednesday 87
Huddersfield 86
MK Dons 81
Carlisle 72
Stevenage 71
Notts Co 67
Colchester 63

As for performance against the seasons average we can see how current form (last 6 games) compares against the seasons form and which sides are doing better or worse than their current season's average. Figures in brackets is a comparison with the previous fixtures performance.

Charlton 55% (77%)
Wednesday 123% (125%)
Huddersfield 107% (91%)
United 69% (69%)
MK Dons 85% (103%)
Carlisle 96% (116%)
Stevenage 87% (86%)
Notts Co 91% (113%)
Colchester 97% (121%)

Now there needs to be some rationale here. I would have thought to be within 10-15% of your season's average points per game (ppg) could be expected. If it rises or falls from that it starts to show a significant change.

Basically after Saturday Wednesday and Huddersfield are doing better than expected, everyone else slightly or significantly worse. United didn’t play of course but the Notts County win obviously put our final points tally up.

What is really noticeable is Charlton are really falling away and Wednesday are on a cracking run. All the others are slightly below or around average performance.

I’ll probably have to look at adding Brentford/Hartlepool in here since Colchester are dropping at the moment and of course they might be potential play off contenders though Carlisle look odds on for 6th place at the moment.

 

[Selly]

Of course a win on Wednesday will boost our totals above as 6 games ago was the Oldham debacle...

 

[Selly]

An update...

  	                   	  	   	    	     	     	     	      	Form  	       	       	Form   	Form   
  	                   	  	   	Max 	Champ	Prom 	P-O  	Proj  	Proj  	Avg pos	Avg pos	Avg pos	Avg pos
  	Team               	P 	PTS	Pts 	Magic	Magic	Magic	Total 	Total 	Home   	Away   	Home   	Away   
1 	Charlton           	39	82 	103 	16   	14   	3    	96.66 	93.34 	17.50  	11.67  	14.00  	14.67  
2 	Sheffield Wed      	39	74 	95  	30   	24   	11   	87.70 	88.84 	13.75  	7.67   	12.00  	8.33   
--	-------------------	--	---	----	-----	-----	-----	------	------	-------	-------	-------	-------
3 	Sheffield United   	38	73 	97  	31   	23   	12   	88.37 	83.96 	15.50  	15.25  	19.00  	16.25  
4 	Huddersfield       	38	71 	95  	33   	27   	14   	85.36 	87.00 	11.67  	14.60  	7.00   	17.00  
5 	Milton Keynes Dons 	38	67 	91  	37   	31   	18   	81.65 	81.96 	10.40  	18.00  	10.60  	17.00  
6 	Carlisle           	37	58 	85  	46   	40   	27   	71.69 	71.50 	11.25  	9.60   	11.25  	7.80   
--	-------------------	--	---	----	-----	-----	-----	------	------	-------	-------	-------	-------
7 	Stevenage          	37	57 	84  	47   	41   	29   	71.23 	67.08 	13.83  	10.33  	15.33  	8.00   
8 	Notts County       	39	57 	78  	47   	41   	29   	67.67 	69.25 	14.50  	16.00  	13.75  	13.00  
9 	Colchester         	38	52 	76  	52   	46   	34   	62.61 	64.00 	8.33   	16.80  	8.00   	17.60  
10	Brentford          	37	50 	77  	54   	48   	36   	61.94 	61.25 	10.75  	12.40  	11.25  	14.60  
11	Hartlepool         	39	50 	71  	54   	48   	36   	58.71 	57.84 	13.75  	7.33   	15.75  	7.00   
12	Tranmere           	39	48 	69  	56   	50   	38   	56.11 	60.25 	11.67  	13.50  	15.33  	12.00  
13	AFC Bournemouth    	38	48 	72  	56   	50   	38   	58.11 	52.00 	11.00  	11.50  	9.50   	15.50  
14	Oldham             	37	48 	75  	56   	50   	38   	59.45 	59.25 	10.00  	11.80  	14.25  	9.60   
15	Preston            	38	47 	71  	57   	51   	39   	56.89 	55.00 	5.00   	9.00   	6.50   	13.50  
16	Yeovil             	39	46 	67  	58   	52   	40   	54.05 	57.34 	17.67  	10.75  	17.67  	12.75  
17	Scunthorpe         	39	43 	64  	61   	55   	43   	50.78 	52.59 	13.67  	11.50  	16.33  	8.50   
18	Leyton Orient      	37	43 	70  	61   	55   	43   	53.60 	48.58 	12.50  	10.40  	9.00   	15.00  
19	Bury               	39	43 	64  	61   	55   	43   	50.78 	46.50 	12.00  	8.33   	12.75  	12.00  
20	Wycombe            	39	40 	61  	64   	58   	46   	46.91 	52.25 	9.33   	8.50   	10.33  	10.25  
--	-------------------	--	---	----	-----	-----	-----	------	------	-------	-------	-------	-------
21	Walsall            	38	39 	63  	65   	59   	47   	47.21 	49.96 	12.25  	12.75  	8.25   	13.50  
22	Rochdale           	39	34 	55  	70   	64   	52   	40.43 	39.25 	13.00  	19.33  	12.75  	15.33  
23	Exeter             	39	34 	55  	70   	64   	52   	40.55 	37.50 	12.75  	15.00  	13.50  	14.00  
24	Chesterfield       	38	33 	57  	71   	65   	53   	39.95 	41.96 	17.25  	12.75  	12.50  	12.50

 

[dannycorker]

Update after no game on Saturday...

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 14 = 2.00 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 6 = 0.90 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 16 = 2.29 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 23 = 2.88 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 15 = 1.91 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 24 = 3.43 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 15 = 2.20 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 27 = 3.38 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 18 = 2.30 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 31 = 3.88 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 22 = 2.80 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 103
Sheff Utd - 97
Wednesday - 95
Huddersfield - 95
MK Dons - 91

Projected Points

Charlton - 97
Sheff Utd - 88
Wednesday - 87
Huddersfield - 86
MK Dons - 81

Removed County, almost certainly a 3 horse race for 2nd now, maybe MK could still sneak in, although their manager doesn't seem to think so! I'd be staggered if Charlton don't go up, although they seem to be doing their best to mess it up! They only need a couple of wins to be virtually unreachable though. Huddersfield are definitely the ones to watch out for, although I suspect they're more likely to lose/draw their 'easy' games rather than playing Wednesday or Charlton. As for us, same as ever - just keep winning!

 

[BladeFisher]

Following on from Tuesday’s 27th fixtures the 6 game form predictor for the final table points total is as follows with the previous two/three results in brackets:

Charlton 90 (95-94)
Wednesday 90 (90-90)
Huddersfield 87 (83-82)
United 84 (84-82)
Carlisle 77 (72-75-76)
MK Dons 76 (79-83-81)
Stevenage 69 (69-69-68)
Notts Co 66 (69-76)
Brentford 65 (59-53)
Colchester 58 (63-66-67)

After this set of fixtures you can see the impact of what that result has done to the projected final table based on current form.
The biggest improver is Carlisle who based on current form might be United’s opponents in the play-offs if we don’t improve our current form.

Based on the season’s average ppg (as opposed to the current form) the out turn looks like

Charlton 97
United 88
Wednesday 87
Huddersfield 86
MK Dons 79
Carlisle 74
Stevenage 70
Notts Co 67
Brentford 64
Colchester 61

As for performance against the seasons average we can see how current form (last 6 games) compares against the seasons form and which sides are doing better or worse than their current season's average. Figures in brackets are a comparison with the previous fixtures performance.

Charlton 55% (77%)
Wednesday 123% (125%)
Huddersfield 107% (91%)
United 69% (69%)
MK Dons 78% (85%-103%)
Carlisle 125% (96%-116%)
Stevenage 87% (87%-86%)
Notts Co 91% (113%)
Brentford 108%
Colchester 62% (97%-121%)

Carlisle now become the form team in comparison to their season’s performance. Colchester have fallen away quite badly and MK Dons have hit a bit of a dodgy spell.

Let’s hope United can improve tomorrow night.

 

[travellingblade]

After last night's results, particularly Stevenage's draw, Charlton are just 1 point off securing at least a play-off place, which is closer than anyone else in this season (Man Utd are just 2 points from securing a place in Europe, next season).

 

[blade too long]

1 more than huddersfield and wednesday after 46 should suffice

 

[stannyblade]

True Blade too long

Still dont get all this. Just because wendy has beaten shite they will finish above us. No win our games and no one can stop us

 

[Selly]

Safe to say MK Dons are out of teh race for Auto promotion now. With a max points of 88 points, they can`t afford to drop another point IMO.

cant post table, stupid new forum says its too long...

 

[dannycorker]

Update after last nights fixtures.

Charlton - Top 2 Magic Number: 14 = 2.00 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 6 = 0.90 PPG
- Champions Magic Number: 16 = 2.29 PPG

Sheff Utd - Top 2 Magic Number: 23 = 2.88 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 15 = 1.91 PPG

Sheff Wed - Top 2 Magic Number: 24 = 3.43 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 15 = 2.20 PPG

Huddersfield - Top 2 Magic Number: 27 = 3.38 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 18 = 2.30 PPG

MK Dons - Top 2 Magic Number: 31 = 4.43 PPG
- Top 2 Projected Number: 22 = 3.20 PPG

Notts County - Top 2 Magic Number: 41 = 5.86 PPG
-Top 2 Projected Number: 32 = 4.57 PPG

Stevenage - Top 2 Magic Number: 40 = 5.00 PPG
-Top 2 Projected Number: 31 = 3.92 PPG

Carlisle - Top 2 Magic Number: 37 = 3.55 PPG
-Top 2 Projected Number: 31 = 3.92 PPG

Max Possible Points

Charlton - 103
Sheff Utd - 97
Wednesday - 95
Huddersfield - 95
MK Dons - 88
Carlisle - 85
Stevenage - 82
Notts County - 78

Projected Points

Charlton - 97
Sheff Utd - 88
Wednesday - 87
Huddersfield - 86
MK Dons - 79
Carlisle - 74
Stevenage - 70
Notts County - 67

Added a few teams, why not, quite interesting to see the projected points for all the play off places. Not too much affecting us from last night, MK Dons pretty much out of the race for 2nd now though fortunately. Their max points is actually the same as our projected! Shows how fast things can change, I know a few people were worrying about them recently. Big win tonight, set the mark for the rest of the season. UTB.

 

[BladeFisher]

True Blade too long

Still dont get all this. Just because wendy has beaten shite they will finish above us. No win our games and no one can stop us

Hi TBTL, don't worry about it. Its a mathematical game, but it does show what a consistent good or bad run, whether as you put it "you beat shite or not" will do. At the moment looking over the last few games you can see that our friends from S6 are heading for 90 points, but only if they keep this run going. We need to win 3 games on the bounce and it'll start to turn around.

This isn't my personal prediction, its just based on form - that's all.

 

[dannycorker]

BladeFisher, I've been going a bit deeper into your 6 game idea, trying to take the form of the teams played into account as well. This is what I've come up with.

RESULT - TEAM (FORM POSITION)

United

L - Oldham (16th in Form Table)
L - Walsall (7)
W - Brentford (8)
D - Colchester (20)
D - Tranmere (2)
W - Notts County (13)

Average = 11th

Wednesday

D - Rochdale (21)
W - Bury (23)
W - Bournemouth (21)
W - Notts County (13)
D - Walsall (7)
W - Leyton Orient (18)

Average = 17th

Huddersfield

D - Bury (23)
W - Hartlepool (15)
D - Rochdale (21)
D - Colchester (20)
W - Chesterfield (18)
W - Charlton (14)

Average = 19th

To get really mathematical, we could assign each team a performance ratio based on who they've played. United average is 11th, 11/24 = 0.46, so take 0.54 as ratio. Wednesday 17/24 = 0.71 so take 0.29 as ratio. Hudders 19/24 = 0.79 so take 0.21 as ratio. Applying these to the achieved points totals shows United with 8*0.54 = 4.32, Wednesday 14*0.29 = 4.06 and Hudders 12*0.21 = 2.52. based on the teams we've all played, this suggests that we've performed very well, especially considering the injury crisis we suffered during this time.

Looking at the remaining games for each club:

United

Chesterfield (18)
Hartlepool (15)
Bournemouth (21)
Rochdale (21)
Leyton Orient (18)
MK Dons (9)
Stevenage (11)
Exeter (24)

Average = 17th

Wednesday

Preston (16)
Huddersfield (4)
Oldham (16)
Colchester (20)
Carlisle (3)
Brentford (8)
Wycombe (5)

Average = 10th

Huddersfield

Carlisle (3)
Leyton Orient (18)
Sheff Wed (1)
Bournemouth (21)
Preston (16)
Scunthorpe (11)
Walsall (7)
Yeovil (6)

Average = 10th

Look at the form guide in this way and things looks better than most of your 6 game predictions. We have played much tougher games (based on form) than either of our rivals for the last 6 games, and remain in the driving seat for 2nd place. We also play much lower teams based on form for the remainder of the season than either of them. The form numbers can change quickly of course, and I'll keep this updated to reflect that.

 

[dannycorker]

One interesting thing I've now noticed is that some of the magic numbers aren't possible to achieve with the number of games left. Will include a 'Real' Magic Number field in future.

Charlton

7 Games to Play
Magic Number = 14 (4 wins, 2 draws, 1 left)
Projected Number = 6 (2 wins, 5 remaining) (1 win, 3 draws, 3 remaining) (6 draws, 1 remaining)

Sheff Utd

8 Games to Play
Magic Number = 23 (Impossible from 8 games)
'Real' Magic Number = 24 (8 wins)
Projected Number = 15 (5 wins, 3 remaining) (4 wins, 3 draws, 1 remaining)

Sheff Wed

7 Games to Play
Magic Number = 24 (Out of their hands)
Projected Number = 15 (5 wins, 2 remaining) (4 wins, 3 draws)

Huddersfield

8 Games to Play
Magic Number = 27 (Out of their hands)
Projected Number = 18 (6 wins, 2 remaining)

 

[BladeFisher]

After tonight’s great result the 6 game form predictor for the final table points total is as follows:

Charlton 90 (95-94)
Wednesday 90 (90-90)
United 89 (84-84-82)
Huddersfield 87 (83-82)
Carlisle 77 (72-75-76)
MK Dons 76 (79-83-81)
Stevenage 69 (69-69-68)
Notts Co 66 (69-76)
Brentford 65 (59-53)
Colchester 58 (63-66-67)

United on current form are predicted to finish third, but the good turn round of the last two games has really compressed the title race. At this rate there is just one point in it!

Based on the season’s average ppg (as opposed to the current form) the out turn looks like

Charlton 97
United 90
Wednesday 87
Huddersfield 86
MK Dons 79
Carlisle 74
Stevenage 70
Notts Co 67
Brentford 64
Colchester 61

As for performance against the seasons average we can see how current form (last 6 games) compares against the seasons form and which sides are doing better or worse than their current season's average. Figures in brackets are a comparison with the previous fixtures performance.

Charlton 55% (77%)
Wednesday 123% (125%)
United 94% (69%-69%)
Huddersfield 107% (91%)
MK Dons 78% (85%-103%)
Carlisle 125% (96%-116%)
Stevenage 87% (87%-86%)
Notts Co 91% (113%)
Brentford 108%
Colchester 62% (97%-121%)

As they say its game on!

 

[blade too long]

beating teams 5-2 and 4 -1 and being the countries top goal scorers with 77 helps, now 3 more than man utd

Ched has amassed 24 league goals in 26 starts, truely a deano style promotion scoring spree

6 game form guides suck, cant form any outcome on such limited info

try this ,beginning of feb we were 5 points behind the owls , fact , we are now 2 in front and a 12 better gd, despite 2 games where we in 1 ended with 9 men and 1 where we had to change all the back 4 , we only have 1 top 6 side to play now

 

[grafikhaus]

Crossed the first line...

 

[BladeFisher]

Correction two teams chasing the play offs and two trying to avoid relegation.

After Hartlepool (dodgy fixture), we start imo the easier run, Bournemouth, Rochdale, Orient. Wednesday have one outright promo contender, 3 play off contenders and a relegation team to play.

It will not be as easy as you think! When Wednesday lose, I will be more confident but they are on a run of 7 undefeated and we are 5. They have played one promotion contender and won, one play off hopeful and won, four relegation contenders won 2 and drawn two. By comparison we have played one promotion contender and lost, two play off hopefuls and won both and two relegation candidates wining one and losing one.

 

[blade too long]

I wait to see how Wednesday cope with a sending off or 2
and again 7 unbeaten for wendies includes a 0-0 draw at rochdale, who missed a late penalty, an equaliser in the 96th minute in a 2-2 draw at home with walsall and wins over 3 bottom half teams

we played a bottom club tonight , surprise surprise we won , and convincingly
come back when theyve played away at huddersfield brentford and colchester like we had too and got 7 points, see if they match that

 

[BladeFisher]

I wait to see how Wednesday cope with a sending off or 2
and again 7 unbeaten for wendies includes a 0-0 draw at rochdale, who missed a late penalty, an equaliser in the 96th minute in a 2-2 draw at home with walsall and wins over 3 bottom half teams

we played a bottom club tonight , surprise surprise we won , and convincingly
come back when theyve played away at huddersfield brentford and colchester like we had too and got 7 points, see if they match that

Yeah well my prediction for them is that they will lose at Huddersfield and at home to Carlisle. All the predictor is, is a mathematical model, not what I think will happen. But it's all good fun eh?

 

[Highbury_Blade]

By the time we play Rochdale they will be pretty much relegated, as will exeter. I fancy our run in far more than Wednesday's

 

[blade too long]

SHEFFIELD UNITED


Sat 31st - Hartlepool (A) 15:00 who stand 11th in tonights table
Sat 7th April - Bournemouth (H) 15:00 12th
Tues 10th - Rochdale (A) 19:45 22nd
Sat 14th - Orient (H) 15:00 17th
Sat 21st - MKD (A) 15:00 5th
Sat 28th - Stevenage (H) 15:00 7th
Sat 5th May - Exeter (A) 15:00 23rd

HUDDERSFIELD TOWN:

Sat 31st - Carlisle (A) 15:00 6th
Tues 3rd April - Orient (A) 19:45 17th
Sat 7th - Sheff W (H) - 12:30 3rd
Mon 9th - Bournemouth (A) 15:00 12TH
Sat 14th - Preston (A) 15:00 15th
Sat 21st - Scunthorpe (H) 15:00 18th
Sat 28th - Wallsall (A) 15:00 20th
Sat 5th May - Yeovil (H) 15:00 16th

SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY:



Sat 31st - Preston (H) 12:45 15th
Sat 7th April - Huddersfield (A) 12:30 4th
Mon 9th - Oldham (H) 12:45 14th
Sat 14th - Colchester (A) 15:00 10th
Sat 21st - Carlisle (H) 15:00 6th
Sat 28th - Brentford (A) 15:00 9th
Sat 5th May - Wycombe (H) 15:00 21st


remaining fixtures of 3 chasing 2nd
united/hudders have 2 games v top 10 clubs to play
wednesday have 4 out of 7 v top 10 clubs left 3 away
next 3 wednesday play early , kicking off a couple of hours before us
huddersfield have 5 away out of 8

 

[dannycorker]

OK big update. Going to include a lot more info in each post now, including the form method that I posted earlier. For the Form Score, higher is better and it takes into account the form of the last 6 teams played against.

Charlton
- 7 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 12th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 14 = 2.00 PPG (4 wins, 2 draws, 1 left)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 6 = 0.90 PPG (2 wins, 5 left) (1 win, 3 draws, 3 left) (6 draws, 1 left)
- Champions Magic Number: 16 = 2.29 PPG (5 wins, 1 draw, one left)

Sheff Utd
- 7 Games to Play (Average Pos 14th, Average Form 17th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 20 = 2.46 PPG (Impossible from 7 Games)
-'Real' Top 2 Magic Number: 21 = 3.00 PPG (7 wins)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 12 = 1.75 PPG (4 wins, 3 left) (3 wins, 3 draws, 1 left)

Sheff Wed
- 7 Games to Play (Average Pos 11th, Average Form 10th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 24 = 3.43 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 17 = 2.38 PPG (5 wins, 2 draws)

Huddersfield
- 8 Games to Play (Average Pos 13th, Average Form 11th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 27 = 3.38 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 20 = 2.46 PPG (6 wins, 2 draws)

MK Dons
- 7 Games to Play (Average Pos 14th, Average Form 10th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 31 = 4.43 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 24 = 3.38 PPG (Out of their hands)

Carlisle
- 8 games to Play (Average Pos 11th, Average Form 11th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 37 = 4.63 PPG (Out of their hands)
-Top 2 Projected Number: 30 = 3.71 PPG (Out of their hands)

Stevenage
- 8 Games to Play (Average Pos 13th, Average Form 9th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 40 = 5.00 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 33 = 4.08 PPG (Out of their hands)

Notts County
- 7 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 14th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 41 = 5.86 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 32 = 4.57 PPG (Out of their hands)


Max Possible Points

Charlton - 103
Sheff Utd - 97
Wednesday - 95
Huddersfield - 95
MK Dons - 88
Carlisle - 85
Stevenage - 82
Notts County - 67

Projected Points

Charlton - 97
Sheff Utd - 90
Wednesday - 87
Huddersfield - 86
MK Dons - 79
Carlisle - 74
Stevenage - 70
Notts County - 67

Form Scores

Notts County - 6
Sheff Utd - 5.5
Sheff Wed - 4.06
MK Dons - 3.68
Charlton - 3.5
Carlisle - 3
Huddersfield - 2.52
Stevenage - 2.32

I know the form scores may look odd, but remember they take into account the form of the teams you've recently played, not just the results. Hope there's enough info there to satisfy even the most stat-hungry person out there