points for the play offs

[blade too long]

The official average is 74 for 6th spot
the most ever was 80 by Fulham. but they finished 5 points more than 7th so 76 would have sufficed

4 wins and a draw would get us to the average required 5 wins and a draw to 77 which would be about as certain as it gets

 

[Big.Dane.w]

Certainly doable, some tough games left though

 

[blade too long]

The only time 78 points was needed was 14 15

but that is highly unlikely as the points spread this season shows the top 2 will get far more points than 90 and 89 the top 2 did then and the bottom 3 will get 7 /8 points more this season than that year as theyve already got more which means less points across the table. and
there's been more drawn games this season

 

[CoatesyBlade]

I got my abacus out after the Barnsley game and thought 5 more wins was the number.
It helps (me) with keeping a bit of perspective when there is the odd blip. Plus it’s good to tick them off as you go.
I honestly think we will do it. This international break is perfect timing for us. One last push… before another ‘one last push’ in the playoffs! Haha
Would be nice to secure a spot before the last game of the season also as who knows what Fulham side will be turning up!

 

[bongleblade]

Is it bad that all i got from that graph is that only 4x 6th place teams have gone up?

Let's hope we do even better... i think we'll have a spark in us post-international break, refreshed team with lots back from injury. I will stick my neck out now and say 6 wins and 2 draws (placing between 3rd-5th)

 

[blackydog]

Bookies have us 2/1 for promotion (behind Fulham and Bournemouth) Forest are 4/1

 

[CPB]

We need at the very least 12 points.
Could be 4 wins.
Or 3 wins 3 draws

Or 15 points to secure would do it. 76 pts.
5 wins or 4 wins 3 draws.

We do have some tough games left.
I guess everyone does.

QPR home and away, Bournemouth at home and Fulham at home stand out of course.
But Reading are scrapping to survive and stoke, Bristol city and Cardiff fall into that mid table danger team category.

 

[blade too long]

Is it bad that all i got from that graph is that only 4x 6th place teams have gone up?

Let's hope we do even better... i think we'll have a spark in us post-international break, refreshed team with lots back from injury. I will stick my neck out now and say 6 wins and 2 draws (placing between 3rd-5th)

doesnt mean we need to finish 6th just saying to actually get into 6th to get the play offs
75 has been enough to finish 3rd

 

[blade too long]

We need at the very least 12 points.
Could be 4 wins.
Or 3 wins 3 draws

Or 15 points to secure would do it. 76 pts.
5 wins or 4 wins 3 draws.

We do have some tough games left.
I guess everyone does.

QPR home and away, Bournemouth at home and Fulham at home stand out of course.
But Reading are scrapping to survive and stoke, Bristol city and Cardiff fall into that mid table danger team category.

not really worried about fulham at home last day as theyll already be up and worrying about having the right level of sun protection for their hols

 

[blade too long]

out of interest wendies in 15 16 with 8 games left had 62 points , got 12 points from their last 8 won 3 drew 3 lost 2 to finish with 74 points 5 points clear of 7th who had 69 Ipswich

 

[blade too long]

as the above tables finish in 2019 here is the seasons since which alter none of the figures

1	Leeds United (C, P)	46	28	9	9	77	35	+42	93	Promotion to the Premier League
2	West Bromwich Albion (P)	46	22	17	7	77	45	+32	83
3	Brentford	46	24	9	13	80	38	+42	81	Qualification for Championship play-offs[a]
4	Fulham (O, P)	46	23	12	11	64	48	+16	81
5	Cardiff City	46	19	16	11	68	58	+10	73
6	Swansea City	46	18	16	12	62	53	+9	70
7	Nottingham Forest	46	18	16	12	58	50	+8	70

you have to feel for forest missing out by 1 goal but only 70 points
and last season

Pos	Team v t e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Promotion, qualification or relegation
1	Norwich City (C, P)	46	29	10	7	75	36	+39	97	Promotion to the Premier League
2	Watford (P)	46	27	10	9	63	30	+33	91
3	Brentford (O, P)	46	24	15	7	79	42	+37	87	Qualification for Championship play-offs
4	Swansea City	46	23	11	12	56	39	+17	80
5	Barnsley	46	23	9	14	58	50	+8	78
6	Bournemouth	46	22	11	13	73	46	+27	77
7	Reading	46	19	13	14	62	54	+8	70

6th got 77 points but 7th only got 70 so 71 would have sufficed

 

[LS16Blade]

Another factor that may well mean that the points totals required to get in the top 6, will be relatively low this season, is the sheer number of fixtures remaining between clubs currently sitting in the top 10 (ie down to and including Millwall).

There are 18 fixtures still to be played between teams in the top 10. There won’t be any match days when all the contenders win. There will always be someone dropping points.

In fact, the win that Bournemouth got at Huddersfield on Saturday might well prove vital for them because whilst they appear to have a comfortable 6 point buffer now, Bournemouth feature in 6 of the remaining head-to-heads (Boro, Fulham, Forest and Millwall at home and Us and Blackburn away). That’s a tough run - 2nd place might well not be settled yet.

 

[Moan? Nope-I saw Longhorn]

We need at the very least 12 points.
Could be 4 wins.
Or 3 wins 3 draws

Or 15 points to secure would do it. 76 pts.
5 wins or 4 wins 3 draws.

We do have some tough games left.
I guess everyone does.

QPR home and away, Bournemouth at home and Fulham at home stand out of course.
But Reading are scrapping to survive and stoke, Bristol city and Cardiff fall into that mid table danger team category.

Whilst agreeing with the “tough games” suggestion we don’t ‘deserve’ owt if we can’t / don’t beat Reading & Cardiff @ home & get < 1 point from each of Stoke, Brizzle & QPR (home) leaving us ‘needing’ 3 points from 3
Not sure it will pan out like that & I reckon there’ll be a ‘shock’ or 2 afore we’re done - everything about Stoke is horrible on & off the field (promotion celebration excluded) but having seen QPR a couple of times recently I can see 4 (if not 6) points from them

 

[Eels]

It's doable. If we're saying four wins and a draw then maybe we could do that at home but I don't see it. I reckon one of them will have to be away.

 

[blade too long]

It's doable. If we're saying four wins and a draw then maybe we could do that at home but I don't see it. I reckon one of them will have to be away.

well our current home form says 4 wins and a draw is possible especially as we have only conceded 2 goals in our last 10 home games
but if we can get 1 win away it could be the difference
QPR have only won 2 of their last 10 and we could be playing them at a good time for us

 

[ChipButtyBlade]

In #1 only 4 teams (capitals)over the 24 seasons got promoted when finishing 6th, is that an 18% chance.

 

[LS16Blade]

Bookies have us 2/1 for promotion (behind Fulham and Bournemouth) Forest are 4/1

The bookies will surely have reviewed all of the remaining fixtures just as, let’s face it, many of us often do.

My own, arguably rose-tinted, review of the remaining games has us finishing 3rd and playing 6th place Huddersfield in the play-off semi-final. Forest and Boro finish 4th and 5th respectively and contest the other semi, but I don’t want to even think about where that whole scenario will end up…

 

[Stevo]

Certainly doable, some tough games left though

To coin an old cliché, there are no easy games left at this stage, I feel very optimistic of our chances as we are a team to be feared .........our chances in the play offs......hmmmmm

 

[Danny_Blade]

If we carry on in the current form I can't see us getting another 13 points from our last 8 matches. Like winning 6 out of our last 12 we will need to win around half of our last 8 and certainly can't afford to lose more than two of them, so on current form (only 2 wins out of our last 6) we need to win 4 or 5 of the next 8 and this is the bit I can't see us doing. We'll probably pick up some more injuries along the way too (despite this break) as we get further into April the congestion will catch up with us, but it will with our rivals also.

Not saying we won't make the top 6 just that I think another 12 or 13 will be slightly beyond us.

On some teams Forest have 3 games in hand and Boro have 2, but as we all know the month of April in the Football League is always ridiculously crammed with fixtures (the busiest month of the season isn't it?) so the extra 2 or 3 games those two have to play will be added to their April schedule as we are now on an international break for the remainder of March. That will take its toll on both teams and so they will inevitably drop further points and its this that I think may see us just ahead of them at full time in match 46.

But on the flip side we went on long runs in both cup comps in 2002/03 and still made the Play Offs so who knows whether they can make it work for them or if it turns out to be to their detriments?

 

[blade too long]

.......our chances in the play offs......hmmmmm

are one in four

 

[blade too long]

1 If we carry on in the current form I can't see us getting another 13 points from our last 8 matches.

2 Not saying we won't make the top 6 just that I think another 12 or 13 will be slightly beyond us.

3 On some teams Forest have 3 games in hand and Boro have 2,

1 we have 5 at home and 3 away so have the biggest advantage in that respect
2 winning half of 8 matches isnt beyond us with 5 home games
3 we too have a game in hand over huddersfield and blackburn
boro have been poor away from home in 2022 and have most away games left

 

[Danny_Blade]

1 we have 5 at home and 3 away so have the biggest advantage in that respect
2 winning half of 8 matches isnt beyond us with 5 home games
3 we too have a game in hand over huddersfield and blackburn
boro have been poor away from home in 2022 and have most away games left

1 we have 5 at home and 3 away so have the biggest advantage in that respect - Agreed.

2 winning half of 8 matches isnt beyond us with 5 home games - True but we won't likely win all 5 though, especially as 2 of them are in the autos and another a Play Off contender. Who knows what Fulham will be like on that crucial last day though when they'll already have been crowned Champions.

3 we too have a game in hand over huddersfield and blackburn - Yes thats true I forgot about that, but for balance that means they have less games to play than us.

boro have been poor away from home in 2022 and have most away games left - Like I said I'm slightly optimistic we might finish above both Forest and Boro with them having a few more matches to catch up on.

Bottom line is that it is all swings and roundabouts.

 

[blade too long]

- True but we won't likely win all 5 though

we dont have to 4 is enough you said be hard getting 12 points
in league one we won 8 of last 9 and drew the other

 

[raimond]

There's plenty going for us though compared to an average season's stats;

1) Everyone's taken points off each other so the total's likely to be lower than normal.

2) Everyone up there has to play one another so bringing the required total even lower. I'm sure someone a hell of a lot smarter than me could take this into account and work out what the total's likely to be (as opposed to comparing to previous years).

3) Boro and Forest have played extra games in their cup runs. It'll make catching up a hell of a lot harder for them and they'll pick up injuries too.

4) We have QPR (bottom of the form table) twice, are likely to play Fulham reserves, and play Stoke, Cardiff and Bristol City who have precisely fuck all to play for. As well as the majority being home games and getting players back. The big thing is avoiding injuries and let's see how we go- but it'd take some doing even for us to fuck up.

 

[Torrix1889]

i think we'll have a spark in us post-international break, refreshed team with lots back from injury.

I said the same when we came back after the first Lockdown....

 

[Danny_Blade]

we dont have to 4 is enough you said be hard getting 12 points
in league one we won 8 of last 9 and drew the other

Still can't see us even winning 4 of the 5 though.

As for League One that was a vastly different scenario wasn't it? We were completely dominating the league being head and shoulders above the rest, knew we were going up after 36 games played and probably even knew we'd likely be Champions as Bolton were nowhere near us!

As I say I think we have a great chance of getting into the top 6 but I'm just disputing that I can't see us winning either half or nearly half of the remaining 8 on current form, ditto for us to win 4 or 5 of our remaining home games because looking at our last 6 we're in indifferent form at the moment so we'd need to improve a fair bit in order to do that.

 

[Pollingtonblade]

What is the point in us getting to play offs anyway?

 

[Broomhall Blade]

Yes but has anyone factored in that we might be playing with McBurnie up front for the rest of the season ?


BTW I have faith in you Olly if that should be the case.

 

[CoatesyBlade]

What is the point in us getting to play offs anyway?

To gain promotion to the PL

 

[djbaldken]

Love all the speculation. Whatever the points needed I think we ll be there or there abouts. Knowing us we'll probably finish 7th on goal difference.
If/when we make the play offs there is the elephant in the room regarding our many attempts at being successful here. (sorry I ve been a Blade for far too long)

Then of course there is the prospect of getting to 'The Promised Lands'.

Which raises the following:
A) Is the current squad good enough to compete?
Answer: obviously not. (IMHO) With several aging members and some squad members not performing to past glories.
B) Will the Prince have the money to bring in the required quality required to survive?
Answer: It would appear not to be the case.

Still, its great to be a Blade. Whatever happens I want us to win and compete at the highest level.