Pathway to the Playoffs

[nottingham blades]

I would like us to reach the play offs when we have a team that would have a sniff of competing in the top tier, last time was a complete season long embarrassment and that side was stronger than this.

I’m happy to just get the money and yoyo with a big advantage I championship

 

[Fjortoft's Aeroplane]

This season it’s felt like every time there has been an opportunity to get into that midtable pack we’ve shot ourselves in the foot.

Monday is must win, we can’t let another opportunity pass us by. It’s unlikely we get many, if any more.

I don't see Monday as a "must win", however should we not win then Portsmouth away is probably a "must win".

 

[Fjortoft's Aeroplane]

Win Monday and we're down to 5pts

Was great seeing both Wrexham and Derby lose yesterday. Hoping we can pick up at least 3 pts from the next 2 games, then a win over the pigs should see us offically "in the race".

 

[Champagneblade]

Keep saying it but win to it home games and draw to it away games.

There is of course the argument that means getting 7 points from the next three. I don’t suppose it really matters how they come.

Then again I’m not against us hitting 87 points and going up automatically

 

[mattbianco1]

Whilst it is impressive we actually haven't gained more than 5 points on anyone currently in the playoffs in 15 matches, and there are only 16 to go

I bet we have.

Who was 6th and 7th 15 games ago? Wrexham were down in bottom half for ages.

 

[SUFCScorecard]

Updated:

6W1D (2.7pts/Game) - 19pts (+0.3pts)
Home: Oxford (W), Wednesday, Wrexham, Swansea, Hull, Blackburn, PNE

3W2D (2.2pts/Game) - 11pts (-3.6pts)
Home: Boro (L), Ipswich (W), Coventry, WBA
Away: Charlton (L)

2W2L (1.5pts/Game) - 6pts (-0.5pts)
Away: Millwall (D), Norwich, Bristol, Derby

2W3L (1.2pts/Game) - 6pts (-1.2pts)
Away: Southampton (L), Portsmouth, QPR, Birmingham, Watford


Based on Months and fixture strength that looks like this:

Jan: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
CHA (A), SOU (A), IPS (H), MIL (A)
Jan: 4pts from 4 games (1pt/game - 1W1D2L) -3pts

Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2.0pts/Game - 4W2L)
OXF (H), MID (H), POR (A), SHW (H), COV (H), QPR (A)

March: 8pts from 4 games (2.0pts/Game - 2W2D)
WBA (H), NOR (A), BIR (A), WRE (H)

April/May: 15pts from 7 games (2.14pts/Game - 5W2L)
SWA (H), BRI (A), HUL (H), WAT (A), BLA (H), PNE (H), DER (A)

Probably too much to ask now. Going to have to be close to perfect. We are 5pts behind schedule now, and for us to recover that we'll need to win the next 4. I'm currently giving us a 20% chance we make it to 74pts, though I'm increasingly convinced that the standard is going to be higher than that with so many teams chasing that 6th spot, its likely someone will go on a run.

 

[Champagneblade]

I think we are all getting to the point where we see us falling short in key moments that you need to go your way.

If you’re going up then you don’t go in 0-0 at Charlton and you don’t go down to 9 men.

You don’t get to 1-1 with Millwall then have O’Hare head wide of an open goal.

You don’t miss the first half chance Bamford had vs Boro or Gus’ and you don’t reduce yourself to ten men when you finally have the opposition on the back foot.

We’re seldom totally outplayed, in fact we’re often the better team for periods but it’s these key moments we are simply not taking enough of.

From an entertainment aspect I suppose the positive is that we are edging towards going for it being the only way and that should lead to entertainment.

I’ve long said with 11 homes and 8 always we needed to win the homes and draw the aways to get us to 73 which I thought would be a good points total for play off involvement.

We won the first two home games and drew the first of the away games.

We need to pick up that Boro points loss from somewhere.

So for the rest of the month we need to win. We need to take our frustration out on Portsmouth and claw back 2 points with a win instead of a draw. We then need to be ruthless vs the Pigs and finally put a top team to bed against Coventry. Then we need to turn up against QPR and win.

If we did that then you might start to have some interesting conversations again.

Otherwise it looks like it’s a lost season.

Wilder opted for using budget on Phillips and Rothwell. One looked good and one let us down. If this was money well spent then these two have to make the difference and see us finally put a run together like we did in November/December time.

It’s all unlikely, I get it. But if football isn’t about hope and overturning the odds then why bother?

 

[SharpAsAblade]

Other than Boro (who are best by far) I genuinely think we’re second/third best in league (when at home anyway). We’ve got 45 points to play for and we need atleast 37 to make playoffs (76 pts I reckon would do it). We need to be near perfect with very few hiccups to have a chance. Playoff wise we’ve still got plenty of teams up there to play against (Hull, Preston, Wrexham, Watford, Birmingham, Bristol city and derby). Doable but it’s gonna be very tough. UTB

 

[JPBrods]

I think it’s gone now, sadly. We are sort of the bizzaro version of ourselves from last season. Many games in that campaign we looked dross and dull, were bettered by the opposition but won. This time lots of games we look absolutely electric at times but conspire against ourselves to drop points. Either way it’s (sadly) another case of classic Blades poor timing. Our points total from last season would likely win the league this term by a margin. We also look like one of the better sides in the league now, in this campaign, but we have left it just a few weeks too late to break into form.

 

[biggiesablade]

Hopefully we are planning for next season and not pinning all our hopes on stumbling into play offs and spozzing promotion. We havent had a dead rubber season for a long time and its taking some time for a lot of fans to get their heads around that.

 

[Weasel]

Beat Pompey and win against the porkers and suddenly things change and we have a sniff again. Got to beat Portsmouth away at the weekend now. Has to happen or it really is looking a forlorn hope.

 

[ATL Recs]

Beat Pompey and win against the porkers and suddenly things change and we have a sniff again. Got to beat Portsmouth away at the weekend now. Has to happen or it really is looking a forlorn hope.

I’d take promotion via any dodgy route tbh but can you imagine this lot even with our future 40 million pounds of additions in the summer and our style and identity in the premiership

 

[Uganda Blade]

I think we are all getting to the point where we see us falling short in key moments that you need to go your way.

If you’re going up then you don’t go in 0-0 at Charlton and you don’t go down to 9 men.

You don’t get to 1-1 with Millwall then have O’Hare head wide of an open goal.

You don’t miss the first half chance Bamford had vs Boro or Gus’ and you don’t reduce yourself to ten men when you finally have the opposition on the back foot.

We’re seldom totally outplayed, in fact we’re often the better team for periods but it’s these key moments we are simply not taking enough of.

From an entertainment aspect I suppose the positive is that we are edging towards going for it being the only way and that should lead to entertainment.

I’ve long said with 11 homes and 8 always we needed to win the homes and draw the aways to get us to 73 which I thought would be a good points total for play off involvement.

We won the first two home games and drew the first of the away games.

We need to pick up that Boro points loss from somewhere.

So for the rest of the month we need to win. We need to take our frustration out on Portsmouth and claw back 2 points with a win instead of a draw. We then need to be ruthless vs the Pigs and finally put a top team to bed against Coventry. Then we need to turn up against QPR and win.

If we did that then you might start to have some interesting conversations again.

Otherwise it looks like it’s a lost season.

Wilder opted for using budget on Phillips and Rothwell. One looked good and one let us down. If this was money well spent then these two have to make the difference and see us finally put a run together like we did in November/December time.

It’s all unlikely, I get it. But if football isn’t about hope and overturning the odds then why bother?

According to the thread by ucandomagic (how do you tag usernames, by the way?), we are now one point behind his schedule for playoffs possible and probable.
Win the next three and we're a point ahead.
Effectively then, as you imply, it's shit or bust time, but hope springs eternal, eh.

 

[Balham]

I bet we have.

Who was 6th and 7th 15 games ago? Wrexham were down in bottom half for ages.

After 15 matches and after 30 matches:

After 15
1 - Coventry - 1st after 30
2 - Middlesbrough - 2nd
3 - Stoke City - 12th
4 - Preston - 9th
5 - Hull - 3rd
6 - Millwall - 5th
7 - Ipwich - 4th
8 - Bristol C - 10th
..
10th Derby - 7th
13th Wrexham - 6th
15th Watford - 8th

 

[Down the Channels]

Losing last night made little difference in my opinion. They have looked like the best team in the league for weeks now.
Before last night I felt we needed to win 10, draw 3 and lose 3. I had us losing last night as one of those 3.
We needed to go on a hell of a run before last night, we still do.
I thought it would be out of reach, but win the next 3 (which if do-able if we play like we did for a lot of last night) and we might be within touching distance.

 

[mattbianco1]

After 15 matches and after 30 matches:

After 15
1 - Coventry - 1st after 30
2 - Middlesbrough - 2nd
3 - Stoke City - 12th
4 - Preston - 9th
5 - Hull - 3rd
6 - Millwall - 5th
7 - Ipwich - 4th
8 - Bristol C - 10th
..
10th Derby - 7th
13th Wrexham - 6th
15th Watford - 8th

View attachment 230728

That's hurt my little head.

To simplify it, here is the table after 15 games which proves my point I was making to wak1889 - we were 15pts off 6th place, now we are 8. We were 11pts off Wrexham, now we are 8.

Stoke were 3rd and Preston 4th. We were 17 & 16pts behind them, now we are 4 & 8.



To say we haven't closed any gaps in 15 games is nonsense. The top 5 have pulled away, but 6th downwards has become a lot closer.

We've also climbed 6 places.

 

[Balham]

That's hurt my little head.

To simplify it, here is the table after 15 games which proves my point I was making to wak1889 - we were 15pts off 6th place, now we are 8. We were 11pts off Wrexham, now we are 8.

Stoke were 3rd and Preston 4th. We were 17 & 16pts behind them, now we are 4 & 8.



To say we haven't closed any gaps in 15 games is nonsense. The top 5 have pulled away, but 6th downwards has become a lot closer.

We've also climbed 6 places.

The top 2 have stayed where they were. Behind them, Millwall and Hull have retained a play off spot with Ipswich moving in from just outside. Wrexham and Derby have come from the bottom half over the past 15 matches, swapping places with Stoke (who have been in free-fall since the Autumn) and Preston (who seem to have run out of ideas).

I still maintain that the top 2 at the end of the season will be Boro and Ipswich. 3rd to 5th will realistically come from the rest of the current top 8 but 6th place could go to anyone - including us but our margin for error is basically zero now.

 

[Blade In Flame]

Playoffs this way

 

[JPBrods]

Hopefully we are planning for next season and not pinning all our hopes on stumbling into play offs and spozzing promotion. We havent had a dead rubber season for a long time and its taking some time for a lot of fans to get their heads around that.

What was our last dead rubber? Does 17-18 count? In and around the autos for a bit and probs realistically in the playoff hunt until around game 41.

 

[Selly]

What was our last dead rubber? Does 17-18 count? In and around the autos for a bit and probs realistically in the playoff hunt until around game 41.

I genuinely think its probably 01-02. Never in danger of relegation, never really in with a shout of the playoffs (very similar to this season in terms of where we are right now - not the start)

00-01 was very similar. 99-00 needed Warnock to get us out of the relegation fight when he joined in Dec - we were absolutely in a relegation scrap that season. 98-99 was the Steve Bruce season and probably also counts as a bit of a dead rubber. Prior to that I would say the last "dead rubber season" was probably in the mid 80's.

So that's 3 dead rubber seasons in 40 years - of course dead rubber seasons are preferable to relegation fights (given our record in those)

 

[biggiesablade]

What was our last dead rubber? Does 17-18 count? In and around the autos for a bit and probs realistically in the playoff hunt until around game 41.

Compared to someone like Preston or some other smaller shitter local clubs thats a season to remember lol we really arent a boring club to follow