Pathway to the Playoffs

[nottingham blades]

I would like us to reach the play offs when we have a team that would have a sniff of competing in the top tier, last time was a complete season long embarrassment and that side was stronger than this.

I’m happy to just get the money and yoyo with a big advantage I championship

 

[Fjortoft's Aeroplane]

This season it’s felt like every time there has been an opportunity to get into that midtable pack we’ve shot ourselves in the foot.

Monday is must win, we can’t let another opportunity pass us by. It’s unlikely we get many, if any more.

I don't see Monday as a "must win", however should we not win then Portsmouth away is probably a "must win".

 

[Fjortoft's Aeroplane]

Win Monday and we're down to 5pts

Was great seeing both Wrexham and Derby lose yesterday. Hoping we can pick up at least 3 pts from the next 2 games, then a win over the pigs should see us offically "in the race".

 

[Champagneblade]

Keep saying it but win to it home games and draw to it away games.

There is of course the argument that means getting 7 points from the next three. I don’t suppose it really matters how they come.

Then again I’m not against us hitting 87 points and going up automatically

 

[mattbianco1]

Whilst it is impressive we actually haven't gained more than 5 points on anyone currently in the playoffs in 15 matches, and there are only 16 to go

I bet we have.

Who was 6th and 7th 15 games ago? Wrexham were down in bottom half for ages.

 

[SUFCScorecard]

Updated:

6W1D (2.7pts/Game) - 19pts (+0.3pts)
Home: Oxford (W), Wednesday, Wrexham, Swansea, Hull, Blackburn, PNE

3W2D (2.2pts/Game) - 11pts (-3.6pts)
Home: Boro (L), Ipswich (W), Coventry, WBA
Away: Charlton (L)

2W2L (1.5pts/Game) - 6pts (-0.5pts)
Away: Millwall (D), Norwich, Bristol, Derby

2W3L (1.2pts/Game) - 6pts (-1.2pts)
Away: Southampton (L), Portsmouth, QPR, Birmingham, Watford


Based on Months and fixture strength that looks like this:

Jan: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
CHA (A), SOU (A), IPS (H), MIL (A)
Jan: 4pts from 4 games (1pt/game - 1W1D2L) -3pts

Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2.0pts/Game - 4W2L)
OXF (H), MID (H), POR (A), SHW (H), COV (H), QPR (A)

March: 8pts from 4 games (2.0pts/Game - 2W2D)
WBA (H), NOR (A), BIR (A), WRE (H)

April/May: 15pts from 7 games (2.14pts/Game - 5W2L)
SWA (H), BRI (A), HUL (H), WAT (A), BLA (H), PNE (H), DER (A)

Probably too much to ask now. Going to have to be close to perfect. We are 5pts behind schedule now, and for us to recover that we'll need to win the next 4. I'm currently giving us a 20% chance we make it to 74pts, though I'm increasingly convinced that the standard is going to be higher than that with so many teams chasing that 6th spot, its likely someone will go on a run.

 

[Champagneblade]

I think we are all getting to the point where we see us falling short in key moments that you need to go your way.

If you’re going up then you don’t go in 0-0 at Charlton and you don’t go down to 9 men.

You don’t get to 1-1 with Millwall then have O’Hare head wide of an open goal.

You don’t miss the first half chance Bamford had vs Boro or Gus’ and you don’t reduce yourself to ten men when you finally have the opposition on the back foot.

We’re seldom totally outplayed, in fact we’re often the better team for periods but it’s these key moments we are simply not taking enough of.

From an entertainment aspect I suppose the positive is that we are edging towards going for it being the only way and that should lead to entertainment.

I’ve long said with 11 homes and 8 always we needed to win the homes and draw the aways to get us to 73 which I thought would be a good points total for play off involvement.

We won the first two home games and drew the first of the away games.

We need to pick up that Boro points loss from somewhere.

So for the rest of the month we need to win. We need to take our frustration out on Portsmouth and claw back 2 points with a win instead of a draw. We then need to be ruthless vs the Pigs and finally put a top team to bed against Coventry. Then we need to turn up against QPR and win.

If we did that then you might start to have some interesting conversations again.

Otherwise it looks like it’s a lost season.

Wilder opted for using budget on Phillips and Rothwell. One looked good and one let us down. If this was money well spent then these two have to make the difference and see us finally put a run together like we did in November/December time.

It’s all unlikely, I get it. But if football isn’t about hope and overturning the odds then why bother?

 

[SharpAsAblade]

Other than Boro (who are best by far) I genuinely think we’re second/third best in league (when at home anyway). We’ve got 45 points to play for and we need atleast 37 to make playoffs (76 pts I reckon would do it). We need to be near perfect with very few hiccups to have a chance. Playoff wise we’ve still got plenty of teams up there to play against (Hull, Preston, Wrexham, Watford, Birmingham, Bristol city and derby). Doable but it’s gonna be very tough. UTB

 

[JPBrods]

I think it’s gone now, sadly. We are sort of the bizzaro version of ourselves from last season. Many games in that campaign we looked dross and dull, were bettered by the opposition but won. This time lots of games we look absolutely electric at times but conspire against ourselves to drop points. Either way it’s (sadly) another case of classic Blades poor timing. Our points total from last season would likely win the league this term by a margin. We also look like one of the better sides in the league now, in this campaign, but we have left it just a few weeks too late to break into form.

 

[biggiesablade]

Hopefully we are planning for next season and not pinning all our hopes on stumbling into play offs and spozzing promotion. We havent had a dead rubber season for a long time and its taking some time for a lot of fans to get their heads around that.

 

[Weasel]

Beat Pompey and win against the porkers and suddenly things change and we have a sniff again. Got to beat Portsmouth away at the weekend now. Has to happen or it really is looking a forlorn hope.

 

[ATL Recs]

Beat Pompey and win against the porkers and suddenly things change and we have a sniff again. Got to beat Portsmouth away at the weekend now. Has to happen or it really is looking a forlorn hope.

I’d take promotion via any dodgy route tbh but can you imagine this lot even with our future 40 million pounds of additions in the summer and our style and identity in the premiership

 

[Uganda Blade]

I think we are all getting to the point where we see us falling short in key moments that you need to go your way.

If you’re going up then you don’t go in 0-0 at Charlton and you don’t go down to 9 men.

You don’t get to 1-1 with Millwall then have O’Hare head wide of an open goal.

You don’t miss the first half chance Bamford had vs Boro or Gus’ and you don’t reduce yourself to ten men when you finally have the opposition on the back foot.

We’re seldom totally outplayed, in fact we’re often the better team for periods but it’s these key moments we are simply not taking enough of.

From an entertainment aspect I suppose the positive is that we are edging towards going for it being the only way and that should lead to entertainment.

I’ve long said with 11 homes and 8 always we needed to win the homes and draw the aways to get us to 73 which I thought would be a good points total for play off involvement.

We won the first two home games and drew the first of the away games.

We need to pick up that Boro points loss from somewhere.

So for the rest of the month we need to win. We need to take our frustration out on Portsmouth and claw back 2 points with a win instead of a draw. We then need to be ruthless vs the Pigs and finally put a top team to bed against Coventry. Then we need to turn up against QPR and win.

If we did that then you might start to have some interesting conversations again.

Otherwise it looks like it’s a lost season.

Wilder opted for using budget on Phillips and Rothwell. One looked good and one let us down. If this was money well spent then these two have to make the difference and see us finally put a run together like we did in November/December time.

It’s all unlikely, I get it. But if football isn’t about hope and overturning the odds then why bother?

According to the thread by ucandomagic (how do you tag usernames, by the way?), we are now one point behind his schedule for playoffs possible and probable.
Win the next three and we're a point ahead.
Effectively then, as you imply, it's shit or bust time, but hope springs eternal, eh.

 

[Balham]

I bet we have.

Who was 6th and 7th 15 games ago? Wrexham were down in bottom half for ages.

After 15 matches and after 30 matches:

After 15
1 - Coventry - 1st after 30
2 - Middlesbrough - 2nd
3 - Stoke City - 12th
4 - Preston - 9th
5 - Hull - 3rd
6 - Millwall - 5th
7 - Ipwich - 4th
8 - Bristol C - 10th
..
10th Derby - 7th
13th Wrexham - 6th
15th Watford - 8th

 

[Down the Channels]

Losing last night made little difference in my opinion. They have looked like the best team in the league for weeks now.
Before last night I felt we needed to win 10, draw 3 and lose 3. I had us losing last night as one of those 3.
We needed to go on a hell of a run before last night, we still do.
I thought it would be out of reach, but win the next 3 (which if do-able if we play like we did for a lot of last night) and we might be within touching distance.

 

[mattbianco1]

After 15 matches and after 30 matches:

After 15
1 - Coventry - 1st after 30
2 - Middlesbrough - 2nd
3 - Stoke City - 12th
4 - Preston - 9th
5 - Hull - 3rd
6 - Millwall - 5th
7 - Ipwich - 4th
8 - Bristol C - 10th
..
10th Derby - 7th
13th Wrexham - 6th
15th Watford - 8th

View attachment 230728

That's hurt my little head.

To simplify it, here is the table after 15 games which proves my point I was making to wak1889 - we were 15pts off 6th place, now we are 8. We were 11pts off Wrexham, now we are 8.

Stoke were 3rd and Preston 4th. We were 17 & 16pts behind them, now we are 4 & 8.



To say we haven't closed any gaps in 15 games is nonsense. The top 5 have pulled away, but 6th downwards has become a lot closer.

We've also climbed 6 places.

 

[Balham]

That's hurt my little head.

To simplify it, here is the table after 15 games which proves my point I was making to wak1889 - we were 15pts off 6th place, now we are 8. We were 11pts off Wrexham, now we are 8.

Stoke were 3rd and Preston 4th. We were 17 & 16pts behind them, now we are 4 & 8.



To say we haven't closed any gaps in 15 games is nonsense. The top 5 have pulled away, but 6th downwards has become a lot closer.

We've also climbed 6 places.

The top 2 have stayed where they were. Behind them, Millwall and Hull have retained a play off spot with Ipswich moving in from just outside. Wrexham and Derby have come from the bottom half over the past 15 matches, swapping places with Stoke (who have been in free-fall since the Autumn) and Preston (who seem to have run out of ideas).

I still maintain that the top 2 at the end of the season will be Boro and Ipswich. 3rd to 5th will realistically come from the rest of the current top 8 but 6th place could go to anyone - including us but our margin for error is basically zero now.

 

[Blade In Flame]

Playoffs this way

 

[JPBrods]

Hopefully we are planning for next season and not pinning all our hopes on stumbling into play offs and spozzing promotion. We havent had a dead rubber season for a long time and its taking some time for a lot of fans to get their heads around that.

What was our last dead rubber? Does 17-18 count? In and around the autos for a bit and probs realistically in the playoff hunt until around game 41.

 

[Selly]

What was our last dead rubber? Does 17-18 count? In and around the autos for a bit and probs realistically in the playoff hunt until around game 41.

I genuinely think its probably 01-02. Never in danger of relegation, never really in with a shout of the playoffs (very similar to this season in terms of where we are right now - not the start)

00-01 was very similar. 99-00 needed Warnock to get us out of the relegation fight when he joined in Dec - we were absolutely in a relegation scrap that season. 98-99 was the Steve Bruce season and probably also counts as a bit of a dead rubber. Prior to that I would say the last "dead rubber season" was probably in the mid 80's.

So that's 3 dead rubber seasons in 40 years - of course dead rubber seasons are preferable to relegation fights (given our record in those)

 

[biggiesablade]

What was our last dead rubber? Does 17-18 count? In and around the autos for a bit and probs realistically in the playoff hunt until around game 41.

Compared to someone like Preston or some other smaller shitter local clubs thats a season to remember lol we really arent a boring club to follow

 

[SUFCScorecard]

Updated:

6W1D (2.7pts/Game) - 19pts (+0.6pts)
Home: Oxford (W), Wednesday (W), WBA, Swansea, Hull, Blackburn, PNE

3W2D (2.2pts/Game) - 11pts (-3.6pts)
Home: Boro (L), Ipswich (W), Coventry, Wrexham
Away: Charlton (L)

2W2L (1.5pts/Game) - 6pts (-0.5pts)
Away: Millwall (D), Norwich, Bristol, Derby

2W3L (1.2pts/Game) - 6pts (+0.6pts)
Away: Southampton (L), Portsmouth (W), QPR, Birmingham, Watford


Based on Months and fixture strength that looks like this:

Jan: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
CHA (A), SOU (A), IPS (H), MIL (A)
Jan: 4pts from 4 games (1pt/game - 1W1D2L) -3pts

Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2.0pts/Game - 4W2L)
OXF (H), MID (H), POR (A), SHW (H), COV (H), QPR (A)

March: 8pts from 4 games (2.0pts/Game - 2W2D)
WBA (H), NOR (A), BIR (A), WRE (H)

April/May: 15pts from 7 games (2.14pts/Game - 5W2L)
SWA (H), BRI (A), HUL (H), WAT (A), BLA (H), PNE (H), DER (A)

A couple of wins since I last updated this, but we are still off schedule by about 3pts to get to 74 pts, and I give us a 29% chance of getting that total. Those red cards against Charlton and Boro have had serious consequences and we've got to avoid them down the stretch as we have very little wiggle room left. I don't know if 74pts will do it. I think the 3 teams to catch are Wrexham (-6pts), Birmingham (-4pts) and Hull (-9pts), and I actually think Hull will finish below Wrexham and Brum. We play all of them. Wrexham look the best of the 3 statistically, but the good news is the xG gods are finally catching up with Hull, with a tough schedule, I am more confident that we can wittle down their 9pt lead on us than catching Wrexham or Birmingham.

We need to get at least 4pts from the next 2 to not fall further behind this schedule. I don't fancy us to do that with Phillips suspended (unless Jairo miraculously comes back match fit vs. Coventry). Onyeka was just the player Coventry needed, and we'll lose this game in midfield if we start with Peck and Arblaster/Soumare. Got to feel for Wilder, as he's signed 3 players to fix the obvious midfield issue, and to have none available for the game on Wednesday is awful luck.

One final note, I switched WBA and Wrexham in the strength categories. When I initially put this together, it was all based on underlying stats. It took some time, and I'm not going to redo it all yet, but since then WBA have totally fallen off under their new manager (WBA under Ryan Mason had good underlying stats even if the results weren't coming - the inverse Hull), and Wrexham have kicked on with some January spending.

 

[ISZA ⚔️]

If we don’t get a win tomorrow we’ll be 9 (8 with a draw) behind 6th. As well as we have done the gap doesn’t seem to be getting any smaller. Wrexham are in excellent form. Southampton put 5 past QPR tonight. Bristol City with a big away win.

 

[Klaatu Barada Nikto]

If we don’t get a win tomorrow we’ll be 9 (8 with a draw) behind 6th. As well as we have done the gap doesn’t seem to be getting any smaller. Wrexham are in excellent form. Southampton put 5 past QPR tonight. Bristol City with a big away win.

There's just too many teams in between us and the playoffs.

 

[YES Blade]

There's just too many teams in between us and the playoffs.

It’s always been the issue, 6 points has seemed a small margin to catch but we’ve still needed to rely on 10 teams having worse records than us.

I think these next two matches will finally end our playoff hopes, I reckon we need 4 points bare minimum (really need 6) and we won’t get them. Coventry is an opportunity to get really in the mix and we’ve failed to take those opportunities all season. Then our away form is too patchy to rely on for a win at QPR.

 

[Champagneblade]

It’s always been the issue, 6 points has seemed a small margin to catch but we’ve still needed to rely on 10 teams having worse records than us.

I think these next two matches will finally end our playoff hopes, I reckon we need 4 points bare minimum (really need 6) and we won’t get them. Coventry is an opportunity to get really in the mix and we’ve failed to take those opportunities all season. Then our away form is too patchy to rely on for a win at QPR.

The ironic thing is that this week’s fixtures can fix that.

A win takes us to joint 11th.

Then every team above us can be overtaken by beating them with the exception of Wrexham who we’d still be 3 behind and Saints, who we’d be 2 behind if we win.

At some stage to be the man, you’ve got to beat the man.

At some stage you need to put in a marqué performance that makes teams and your fans sit up.

We’ve only done that against Ipswich at home.

If the players and management are serious and they believe they are good enough then they need to show up.

Especially if Seriki, Brooks, Hamer, O’Hare and Bamford are on it, we can beat anyone. There’s no Leeds or Burnley running over teams relentlessly this year.

Our start was appalling, but how far off the team that finished 20 ahead of Coventry last year are we?

We just need everyone at it from the off and to put in a memorable performance.

 

[Uganda Blade]

The ironic thing is that this week’s fixtures can fix that.

A win takes us to joint 11th.

Then every team above us can be overtaken by beating them with the exception of Wrexham who we’d still be 3 behind and Saints, who we’d be 2 behind if we win.

At some stage to be the man, you’ve got to beat the man.

At some stage you need to put in a marqué performance that makes teams and your fans sit up.

We’ve only done that against Ipswich at home.

If the players and management are serious and they believe they are good enough then they need to show up.

Especially if Seriki, Brooks, Hamer, O’Hare and Bamford are on it, we can beat anyone. There’s no Leeds or Burnley running over teams relentlessly this year.

Our start was appalling, but how far off the team that finished 20 ahead of Coventry last year are we?

We just need everyone at it from the off and to put in a memorable performance.

You're right about needing a memorable performance tonight, as the gap is starting to look unbridgable.
However, if we lose we're still only two points off the schedule in the ucandomagic thread.
Draw, and we remain one point behind; win and we're one point ahead.
And our odds of reaching 6th have shortened again overnight

 

[Chezzy Blades]

Will be a good test of where we’re at tonight as we haven’t done brilliant against top half sides.

30 of our 45 points have come from the bottom three, Pompey and Stoke as we’ve done the double on all five.

Ipswich are the only side we’ve beat in the top 8, fingers crossed we can increase that number a few times in the run in.

Hope Jairo is fit, our results are much better with him on the pitch.

 

[mattbianco1]

If we don’t get a win tomorrow we’ll be 9 (8 with a draw) behind 6th. As well as we have done the gap doesn’t seem to be getting any smaller. Wrexham are in excellent form. Southampton put 5 past QPR tonight. Bristol City with a big away win.

Wrexham don't seem to be letting anything slip.

If we win 3-0, we climb 4 places to 11th.
Any kind of win puts us just 2 points off 7th & 8th - unless Birmingham win at Millwall. That would put them 7th and we'd be 4 behind them still.

The key is to just keep winning

 

[Carlton Blade]

Can probably only afford to drop points in 4 or maybe even 3 matches to make it. Have to beat Wrexham and probably Birmingham. 10 wins, 3 defeats is very likely enough, but maybe not if one of those 3 losses is against Wrexham

It seems counterintuitive but tonight is probably the closest thing to a 'free hit' we have left