Pathway to the Playoffs

[nottingham blades]

I would like us to reach the play offs when we have a team that would have a sniff of competing in the top tier, last time was a complete season long embarrassment and that side was stronger than this.

I’m happy to just get the money and yoyo with a big advantage I championship

 

[Fjortoft's Aeroplane]

This season it’s felt like every time there has been an opportunity to get into that midtable pack we’ve shot ourselves in the foot.

Monday is must win, we can’t let another opportunity pass us by. It’s unlikely we get many, if any more.

I don't see Monday as a "must win", however should we not win then Portsmouth away is probably a "must win".

 

[Fjortoft's Aeroplane]

Win Monday and we're down to 5pts

Was great seeing both Wrexham and Derby lose yesterday. Hoping we can pick up at least 3 pts from the next 2 games, then a win over the pigs should see us offically "in the race".

 

[Champagneblade]

Keep saying it but win to it home games and draw to it away games.

There is of course the argument that means getting 7 points from the next three. I don’t suppose it really matters how they come.

Then again I’m not against us hitting 87 points and going up automatically

 

[mattbianco1]

Whilst it is impressive we actually haven't gained more than 5 points on anyone currently in the playoffs in 15 matches, and there are only 16 to go

I bet we have.

Who was 6th and 7th 15 games ago? Wrexham were down in bottom half for ages.

 

[SUFCScorecard]

Updated:

6W1D (2.7pts/Game) - 19pts (+0.3pts)
Home: Oxford (W), Wednesday, Wrexham, Swansea, Hull, Blackburn, PNE

3W2D (2.2pts/Game) - 11pts (-3.6pts)
Home: Boro (L), Ipswich (W), Coventry, WBA
Away: Charlton (L)

2W2L (1.5pts/Game) - 6pts (-0.5pts)
Away: Millwall (D), Norwich, Bristol, Derby

2W3L (1.2pts/Game) - 6pts (-1.2pts)
Away: Southampton (L), Portsmouth, QPR, Birmingham, Watford


Based on Months and fixture strength that looks like this:

Jan: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
CHA (A), SOU (A), IPS (H), MIL (A)
Jan: 4pts from 4 games (1pt/game - 1W1D2L) -3pts

Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2.0pts/Game - 4W2L)
OXF (H), MID (H), POR (A), SHW (H), COV (H), QPR (A)

March: 8pts from 4 games (2.0pts/Game - 2W2D)
WBA (H), NOR (A), BIR (A), WRE (H)

April/May: 15pts from 7 games (2.14pts/Game - 5W2L)
SWA (H), BRI (A), HUL (H), WAT (A), BLA (H), PNE (H), DER (A)

Probably too much to ask now. Going to have to be close to perfect. We are 5pts behind schedule now, and for us to recover that we'll need to win the next 4. I'm currently giving us a 20% chance we make it to 74pts, though I'm increasingly convinced that the standard is going to be higher than that with so many teams chasing that 6th spot, its likely someone will go on a run.

 

[Champagneblade]

I think we are all getting to the point where we see us falling short in key moments that you need to go your way.

If you’re going up then you don’t go in 0-0 at Charlton and you don’t go down to 9 men.

You don’t get to 1-1 with Millwall then have O’Hare head wide of an open goal.

You don’t miss the first half chance Bamford had vs Boro or Gus’ and you don’t reduce yourself to ten men when you finally have the opposition on the back foot.

We’re seldom totally outplayed, in fact we’re often the better team for periods but it’s these key moments we are simply not taking enough of.

From an entertainment aspect I suppose the positive is that we are edging towards going for it being the only way and that should lead to entertainment.

I’ve long said with 11 homes and 8 always we needed to win the homes and draw the aways to get us to 73 which I thought would be a good points total for play off involvement.

We won the first two home games and drew the first of the away games.

We need to pick up that Boro points loss from somewhere.

So for the rest of the month we need to win. We need to take our frustration out on Portsmouth and claw back 2 points with a win instead of a draw. We then need to be ruthless vs the Pigs and finally put a top team to bed against Coventry. Then we need to turn up against QPR and win.

If we did that then you might start to have some interesting conversations again.

Otherwise it looks like it’s a lost season.

Wilder opted for using budget on Phillips and Rothwell. One looked good and one let us down. If this was money well spent then these two have to make the difference and see us finally put a run together like we did in November/December time.

It’s all unlikely, I get it. But if football isn’t about hope and overturning the odds then why bother?