From a statistical point of view, we seem very likely to pick up a 1 or 2 goal win here.
Hull have struggled offensively so far this season. That can be at least partially attributed to their significant squad turnover from last season, however we have performed much better with a similar degree of turnover.
From their 4 league games so far, Hull have a combined xG of 4.76, around 1.19 per game. This doesn't look too bad, as they look to be creating chances. However, they have only scored 2 goals so far, in draws with Bristol City and Plymouth. So even when they create, they are wasting those opportunities often. This is best shown in their game with Millwall, where despite having 14 shots (joint best for the season so far), 7 on target (best outright), and their best individual xG return of the season so far (1.58), they failed to score at all.
Compare these offensive stats to our defensive numbers, and it doesn't look any better for Hull. We have conceded a total of 3.06 xG so far, roughly 0.77 per game. That is bang on, with us having conceded only 3 goals so far. The game vs Norwich is where we conceded the most xG (0.95), from only 7 shots in total, however I think that is more indicative of the creative quality that Norwich have, rather than being any particular damnation of our defence.
These numbers all seem to indicate that we are likely to be quite comfortable against a side which has form for failing to convert their opportunities.
At the other end of the pitch, we look likely to also do well at Hull's expense.
We've created a total of 5.77 xG across our 4 games, averaging around 1.44 xG per game. Having scored 6 so far, we're slightly exceeding that expectation. Admittedly, a large portion of that xG will be the penalty we missed vs Watford, however we can somewhat cancel that out with the own goal that won us that game, which will have produced 0 xG at all. The only game we failed to reach 1.0 xG was Norwich, where we struggled a little to create against a side which was very defensively organised, and closed down space on the edge of the box very well.
On the other hand, Hull's defensive numbers are a sign of concern. 5.99 xG conceded over 4 games effectively works out at 1.5 xG per game. So far, they have only conceded 4, and have 1 clean sheet, but allowing chances at such a rate can only go on for so long before something gives. One point of note, is that surprisingly, their best defensive performance in terms of xG conceded, came in their game at Leeds, where they only allowed 1.35 xG. This is compared to the 1.50, 1.62, and 1.52 xG they allowed to Bristol City, Plymouth, and Millwall respectively.
So, Hull are quite leaky defensively, and prone to allowing some decent chances, while they are wasteful in attack. Meanwhile, we have been decent creatively so far, whilst being comparatively stingy in defence.
Of course, this could all go completely out of the window once the game is underway later, but the numbers suggest we can pick up a win tonight.
vs 
just a realist.
