Last season I looked at the ten previous winners of League One to try to find common characteristics and patterns. The aim was identify a profile for a typical League One winner.
In doing so, I looked at factors including: the previous season’s finishing position, the size and age of each winning squad, number of goals scored and the relevance of having a settled team. I also examined the impact of new signings – both permanent and loan – in a winning season. Some clear patterns emerged and the 2016/17 Blades provided an almost perfect match for a title winner.
This season I have taken a similar approach in examining The Championship, with a few refinements added. I have disregarded areas where strong trend patterns were not evident and explored the significance of new categories: Money and Managers.
Finally, I have made an assessment of how well Chris Wilder’s Blades fit the profile of a typical Championship winner.
Previous finish
The ignominy of relegation from the top tier is no handicap to bouncing straight back as Champions, as three of the last ten Championship winners proved.
Whereas League One winners show a strong tendency to find substantial improvement from a disappointing, prior season, Championship winners are more likely to have been knocking on the Premier League door, either in or around the Play-offs.
Only one team managed to win the league after finishing outside of the previous season’s top ten and that was QPR in 2011, with Mr Warnock at the helm.
No team, in the past ten years, has gone on to win The Championship on the back of a previous year’s promotion, although Southampton and Norwich did match the achievement of Bassett’s Blades in winning back-to-back promotions.
Points
West Brom somehow managed to win the 2008 Championship with just 81 points – a full 6 points less than Cardiff who had the next lowest total. Both were relegated the following season. In fact, of the four teams to have won the title with less than 90 points only QPR (88) escaped the drop next time around.
Conversely, the only two teams to beat the 100-point barrier – Newcastle and Leicester – achieved the best, subsequent Premier League, finishing positions.
In short, achieving a healthy points total when winning The Championship makes Premier League survival much more likely. This augurs well for Newcastle’s ‘class of ‘17’ who accumulated 94 points - the third best, Championship, tally in a decade.
Goals
Scoring a bucketful of goals is no pre-requisite for winning The Championship, as Reading proved in 2012, when taking the title on the back of a modest 69 league goals. By flamboyant contrast, Bournemouth’s 2015 success was achieved on the back of 98 goals, with the remainder at various points in between.
Of greater relevance than goals scored is goal difference; if you’re not scoring too many you can’t afford to be profligate in defence. Here, some interesting patterns emerge. The minimum goal difference required in winning The Championship over the past ten years is the 27 achieved by Cardiff in 2013. Next lowest was Reading a year earlier. Both went straight back down. The best goal difference over the same period was Newcastle’s 55 achieved in 2010, which corresponded with the best finishing position (12th), of all Championship winners in their first season back in the top flight. Next best goal difference was Bournemouth’s (53) who finished their next, Premier League, season in a comfortable 16th position and third best was Leicester (40) who achieved the second best finishing position of 14th.
Tight defences can win championship titles but if the next mission is to stay up then goals, and more specifically, goal difference, matter.
A settled team
In assessing the importance of a ‘settled team’ I repeated the formula used for League One and looked at three aspects. Firstly, the number of players starting a significant number of games during the winning season: a minimum of 10 starts for permanent players and 6 for loans was the benchmark. We call this group: contributors.
Next, I looked at the total number of players given starts during the winning season. We call this group: starters.
Finally, I applied the 75% rule (more specifically, 73.9%), which meant looking at the number of players, from each team, who had started 34 or more league games during the winning season. We call this group: regulars.
Using this analysis for League One, last year, strong trends emerged. League One winners, including the 2017 Blades, had a higher number of contributors and regulars than teams below them in the table, and a lower number of starters. Therefore backing up the claim that a settled team provides a greater likelihood of success.
An almost identical pattern emerged for The Championship. The last ten winners averaged 16.7 contributors and 7 regulars, which matched the averages for League One winners. The average number of starters used was slightly lower at 24 as opposed to 26 used in League One. The best example of a settled team was Eddie Howe’s, 2015, table-toppers, Bournemouth who won their title using just 20 starters, of which only 12 were contributors. Remaining faithful to the maxim, ‘if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it,’ Howe’s team included 8 players who started 40+ league games during their winning campaign. A further two qualified as regulars by virtue of playing in at least 75% of all league games. Indeed, every Championship winning team in the past ten years has included at least 5 players who played in a minimum of 34 league games.
Assembling a squad of players with both the technical and physical capability to deal with the demands of a 50+ games season is a key factor in winning teams.
Average age
Mick McCarthy’s 2009 Wolves team, which included 21year-old Richard Stearman and former Blade, Neill Collins, was the most youthful Championship winning team of the last ten years with an average age of 24. At the other end of the age spectrum was Cardiff’s 2013 winning team, which was 5 years older. The overall, ten-year, average was 27, one year older than for League One winners.
New signings
In examining the impact of new signings on a Championship winning team, I looked at the number of signings and the level (same, higher or lower) that new signings arrived from. Given Kevin McCabe’s suggestion that significant investment could be made available in January if The Blades are within striking distance of a promotion challenge, I also looked at the relevance of January signings to providing a late push for glory.
All winners invested in new players prior to their title winning campaign, with an overall average of 6 being recruited just prior or during the season of conquest. This bare number conceals an inconsistent pattern in terms of the numbers recruited, which varies from Nigel Pearson’s, 2014, Leicester team shelling out for just 3 new signings to Warnock’s QPR bringing in a transformative 10.
A more regular pattern emerges when looking at where champions shop for new talent, with a large majority arriving from either other Championship clubs or the Premier League. In fact the number of players, signed from lower league clubs, who have contributed to Championship winning teams in the last ten years can be counted on a single hand: Tendayi Darikwa, Callum Wilson, Adam Le Fondre, Jamie Mackie and Richard Stearman.
Championship winners show a strong preference for doing the great majority of their transfer business during the summer window with relatively little activity in January. The one exception in the last ten years was Newcastle’s 2010 team, which recruited Simpson (loan to permanent), Williamson, Routledge and Best in the January window. No other winning team included more than a single January signing though that’s not to say that these interventions should be ignored as the three others, signed on a permanent basis, were: Berra (Wolves 2009), Campbell (Cardiff 2013) and Mahrez (Leicester 2014). Thereby, emphasising the point that whether it’s August or January, quality always counts more than quantity where new signings are concerned.
Loan players
There is no discernible pattern regarding the use of loan players by Championship winners. Four winners had just one loan contributor, whilst Bournemouth and Burnley used none at all.
Newcastle’s 2010 winners made most use of the loan system with 4 players, including Marlon Harewood who scored 5 goals from 9 starts. A similarly impressive goal-to-appearance, ratio was achieved by West Brom’s Bednar and Miller who, collectively, managed 22 from 42.
Other loans that can be considered significant in a Championship winning season include Warnock’s acquisition of Kyle Walker in the first half of the campaign and Wayne Routledge’s return for the run-in. Between them the pair contributed 20 starts each with Routledge chipping in with 5 valuable goals.
The significant factor in acquiring new players is whether they deliver on the pitch, irrespective of if they arrive via loan or permanent transfer.
Money matters (or does it?)
A point of perennial debate amongst football supporters is the issue of money and how much needs to be invested to achieve success.
Notwithstanding the limitations imposed by the, frankly ludicrous, system which perpetuates the phenomenon of ‘undisclosed’ transfers, I looked at the amount invested by winning teams in the summer and January transfer windows connected to their winning season.
I also looked at the cost of players recruited in previous seasons to gain a picture of overall squad value.
Finally, using data from the excellent Swiss Ramble blog site, I looked at money spent on Championship player wages in the 2015/16 season.
Despite the eye-watering sums being invested (some would say gambled) by clubs in their desperation to reach the Premier League, there is no clear pattern of big spending on transfer fees amongst Championship winners. Indeed, the gap in reported squad value between the highest and lowest is almost incomprehensible.
At one extreme is Newcastle’s 2017 winning squad, with a disclosed value of £67.3m whereas Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth included only the £400k paid for Matt Richie as a confirmed fee. Even allowing for the reported £3m invested in Callum Wilson, Howe’s squad, like Nigel Pearson’s Leicester before them, was obtained through careful, long-term planning rather than just extreme spending. Howe’s 12 contributors included 4 signed from Woking, Swindon, Hereford and Orient, whilst Pearson made extensive use of 4 players developed from Leicester’s own academy system. Pearson’s squad included just a single player costing a seven-figure sum – Jamie Vardy who cost £1m.
Money spent on buying players forms only part of the story, with player salaries and signing-on fees usually far outstripping any transfer activity. It is here where the sums involved become truly eye watering and the outrageous risks being taken by some clubs and their benefactors becomes apparent. Bournemouth reportedly spent £17m on player wages in winning their 2015 Championship title – a sum that looks decidedly measly by comparison with what followed.
Swiss Ramble identifies QPR as the top wage spenders of 2015/16 Championship season, ‘spunkin’ an astonishing £41m in the process of finishing 12th. Not far behind were Fulham and Cardiff, who spent £36m and £34m respectively in finishing 20th and 8th. 2016 Champions, Burnley, who, like the three clubs mentioned, had the benefit of parachute payments were 10th in the wages table with an investment of £27m.
Another point worth noting is that Championship clubs lost an average of £10m in the 2015/16 season with just one club, Wolves, achieving a profit – and then only because of a player sale. Middlesboro lost a staggering £32m in winning promotion. Meanwhile Burnley, providing a case study in astute football club management, used their parachute cash wisely and lost a relatively modest £5m. Three other clubs (Newcastle twice and West Brom) were in receipt of parachute payments when winning their title.
The above numbers reinforce the extent of David Wagner’s achievement in getting Huddersfield promoted to the Premier League in 2017 with a wage bill of less than £13m. However, our interest is in winning The Championship, not merely gaining promotion and whilst it is perfectly possible to blow the GDP of a small country in doing so, champions can also be made through stealthier means – as Burnley and Bournemouth have recently proved.
Managers
Alex Ferguson once pointed out that the most important person in a football club is the Manager. Manchester United’s record immediately before, during and after Ferguson’s reign would seem to support his point.
In searching for a formula for a Championship winning team I decided it would have been remiss not to look for patterns in table-topping managers over the past ten years.
One reasonable assumption could have been to look first at those who had been previously successful in getting teams promoted from The Championship, and that approach would have yielded Mick McCarthy, Neil Warnock and Sean Dyche as likely winners.
If we include managers who had achieved a previous Championship play-off position we would add Brian McDermott, Malky Mackay and Nigel Pearson to our list.
Of the remainder, Tony Mowbray had managed Hibernian to 3rd and 4th placed finishes in the Scottish Premier League prior to winning The Championship with West Brom. Eddie Howe had taken Bournemouth into The Championship from League Two and even managed a one-season sojourn at Burnley in between promotions, and Rafa Benitez had won two La Ligas, a UEFA Cup, a Champions League, a Europa Cup, FA Cup and an Italian Cup before adding the 2017 Championship to his cv.
Benitez was extraordinary for the extent of his achievements, but the outlier from the past ten years is Chris Hughton who had previously served, only briefly, as caretaker manager at Spurs and Newcastle before winning The Championship in his first full managerial season.
Interestingly, given the modern trend for overseas managers, Benitez was the only foreign national in the past decade to lead a march to Championship glory.
Conclusion
In summary, based on my analysis, the 2017/18 Championship winners will have the following characteristics:
Previous finish: relegated from Premier League or top 10 in Championship
Squad size: 24
Average age: 27
New signings (overwhelmingly from Prem or Championship): 3+
Regulars (starting 75%+ league games): 5+
Points required: 87+
Goal difference: 27+
Manager: British, with a strong, previous Championship record having already won a promotion or at least a play-off place.
Money: either spend loads, like QPR and Newcastle, or spend more modestly but wisely, like Burnley and Bournemouth or spend somewhere in between, like the rest. Parachute money is handy but not essential.
So where does our criteria lead us in compiling a short list of likely winners of the 2017/18 Championship?
If we start with teams with a British manager, relegated from The Premier League or finishing in the top 10 of last season’s Championship, we are left with: Middlesboro, Sunderland, Norwich, Derby and Brentford. By adding the requirement for a winning Manager to have a previous Championship promotion or play-off on their cv we lose all of those remaining, which means we have to look a little closer. Both Garry Monk and Simon Grayson led Leeds to 7th place Championship finishes and their new clubs, Boro and Sunderland, have the benefit of parachute payments. Boro are worthy 13/2 favourites to win the league but Grayson is a good manager who knows The Championship inside out can spring a surprise with the Mackems who can be backed at a tasty 33/1.
The Blades
Let’s acknowledge from the outset that The Blades do not have an ideal profile for a Championship winner, failing on the key indicators of ‘previous finish’ (no newly promoted club has won The Championship in the past ten years) and the previous league status of ‘new signings.’
On a more positive note, Wilder is building a squad of the appropriate size (currently 21 likely starters with a couple more arrivals likely) and the right age profile (average 27). We also know how important a settled team is to winning both League One and The Championship and The Blades need a minimum of 5, but ideally 7, players capable of playing in 34 or more league games. There is reason for optimism that Wilder’s squad contains enough consistent and physically robust performers to qualify against this criterion.
Wilder has made it clear that he doesn’t have the financial firepower to compete with the biggest spenders in the second tier, so The Blades hope to emulate Burnley and Bournemouth who both won the title without breaking the bank. To do so requires a high calibre manager capable of building a squad with a modest budget and inspiring it beyond its obvious capabilities. Wilder has demonstrated these attributes throughout his career and provides the greatest reason for optimism that The Blades could defy the bookies and outperform their current odds of 33/1.
One final footnote: the only two teams, in the past ten years, to win League One with a points tally of 100+ were Wolves and Charlton, who finished 7th and 9th respectively. My prediction for The Blades is an 8th placed Championship finish – a slot they have occupied on 5 previous occasions in the last 22 seasons.
At this stage there really is all to play for – UTMB!
