Historically, it doesn't look good.

[PeterNdlovu081]

Why does everyone assume Villa will have a play off place secured by time they play Leeds?

Villa play Bolton on Friday.

If they win that then they're practically home and dry.

 

[HolmesfieldBlade]

In my opinion, 12 points will definitely get the job done and there is a strong possibility that 10 points will.

Bielsa has undoubtedly squeezed a lot out of some Leeds players who looked mediocre last season, but the reality is that, since 'spygate' curtailed their dodgy surveillance methods, they've lost 7 out of 17 league games.

That more recent history suggests that it would be extremely surprising if Leeds were now to win all of their remaining games, meaning that they would have finished the season on a 6 match winning run. They can drop points in any of their remaining fixtures. Obviously, Brentford and Villa look the most difficult but even Norwich - a much more potent attacking team than Leeds - have just found Wigan to be problematic.

After Saturday's sickener, the team will hopefully get back to staying on the front foot and play the way that we're used to. If it doesn't work and it costs us goals, so be it, because, after all the Manager and the fans have made it clear that that is what we want them to do, and there can be no complaints.

If I’m brutally honest... after last weekend I think it’s the playoffs. And I’m an optimist...

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Villa have, arguably, peaked slightly too early, teams don't go on 10, 11, 12 game winning runs. PNE, Brizzle are 2 recent examples of 7/8 game runs quickly halted by a run of lesser results. Villa are a better team than those 2 but stats wise, they 'shoudn't' continue this run into the play-offs.

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

Ah, I couldn't find a website that gave a table on a given date. I was using a final table and looking at the last four results of 2nd and 3rd place finishers.
The point I was trying to make is that in most last 4 game run ins there has been ample opportunity. Often, by this stage, the gap is too big and even a good finish isn't enough, but those occasions where it was close but the 2nd place team didn't make it are still too few for it to be compelling. Because of 3 points for a win, I don't see a big difference between 1 and 3 points, particularly as we have a better goal difference. I find statistics to be misleading and in this case I think the margin of change to close - just 1 game - for historical stats like this to be relevant.
The biggest problem for me is the final game. I think we already have to be 3 points ahead with a decent goal difference going into the last match, which is a lot to ask, but we'll see.

Ironically HB, It's the very thing you mentioned (all the variables) that will most likely impact the end result this time.
The Goal difference is one such factor.
We win all 4 and realistically, Leeds MUST win 3 and draw one at least.
That brings in the factor of the run in. We appear to have the better chance of winning all four than Leeds do of winning three and drawing one....just about.
Then chuck in our injuries and suspension, Roofe coming back in for Leeds.
Allow for our heads going down because of the manner of the equaliser against Millwall.
Allow for Leeds backsides tweaking because of the pressure of having to win 3 times after we have won.
I don't agree about the last game scenario though mate.
If we can pull back the 3 points before that game and maintain a decent goal difference, I think we'll go up.
Level with a better gd going into the Stoke game would be a great achievement in itself, but an essential one imo.

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

Ah, I couldn't find a website that gave a table on a given date. I was using a final table and looking at the last four results of 2nd and 3rd place finishers.
The point I was trying to make is that in most last 4 game run ins there has been ample opportunity. Often, by this stage, the gap is too big and even a good finish isn't enough, but those occasions where it was close but the 2nd place team didn't make it are still too few for it to be compelling. Because of 3 points for a win, I don't see a big difference between 1 and 3 points, particularly as we have a better goal difference. I find statistics to be misleading and in this case I think the margin of change to close - just 1 game - for historical stats like this to be relevant.
The biggest problem for me is the final game. I think we already have to be 3 points ahead with a decent goal difference going into the last match, which is a lot to ask, but we'll see.

Ipswich up next HB, but FOOOOOOOOOOOOKKKINELL

 

[Hamburg Blade]

Ipswich up next HB, but FOOOOOOOOOOOOKKKINELL

Come on you BLADES!!!

 

[Harrisblade]

Indeed. 'king Wilder, 'king Blades, the season is turning to 'king rat sh*t!

Shouldn't you be eating some right now after today's result?
(Irrespective of how the season ends)

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

First time ever in the history of the the Championship (as it's now called) that a team more than 2 points behind with 4 games to go have turned it round.
COYRAWWizaaaaaaaaaards!!!
BTW, Although it seemed right at the time, turns out I know f**k all about statistics, ain't that right Hamburg Blade?!

 

[PokerBlade]

Actually, bollox to that, let's win 'em all, watch Leeds fall apart again and make history

Prophecy fulfilled.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

First time ever in the history of the the Championship (as it's now called) that a team more than 2 points behind with 4 games to go have turned it round.
COYRAWWizaaaaaaaaaards!!!
BTW, Although it seemed right at the time, turns out I know f**k all about statistics, ain't that right Hamburg Blade?!

Statistics always lie, mate, I told you that