Historically, it doesn't look good.

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GreasyChipBeattie

GreasyChipBeattie

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Below are a few observations from the 14 Championship promotions.
Apologies if it's a bit difficult to read, but it's most recent season first with the final points won by second place to go up, the points difference between 2nd and 3rd after 42 games and whether the positions at 42 games changed or not by the end of the season.

You'd expect the positions to remain the same where there was a 6 point, 8 point and 11 point gap with 4 to play, but 3rd only overtook 2nd where the gap was less than 2 points. Sorry ladies and gentlemen :(
Actually, bollox to that, let's win 'em all, watch Leeds fall apart again and make history :)

2018 90 2 points Same
2017 93 8 points Same
2016 89 2 points Same
2015 89 0 points Changed
2014 93 8 points Same
2013 79 6 points Same
2012 88 6 points Same
2011 84 1 point Changed
2010 91 11 points Same
2009 83 1 point Same
2008 79 1 point Changed
2007 86 1 point Changed
2006 90 9 points Same
2005 87 0 points Same
 



Talk about glass half empty! We have four matches left, all of which we could win. Leeds, on the other hand have Villa to play which both teams will be up for. I still see it as the ball is in our court.
 
Take one match at a time and remember the opposition are human beings who can and will screw up occasionally if pressure is applied. Time to show our collective mettle, if only as preparation for the play-offs. No point defeating ourselves before its over. I have followed the blades from triumph to disaster for nigh on 60 years. Blades forever.
 
In my opinion, 12 points will definitely get the job done and there is a strong possibility that 10 points will.

Bielsa has undoubtedly squeezed a lot out of some Leeds players who looked mediocre last season, but the reality is that, since 'spygate' curtailed their dodgy surveillance methods, they've lost 7 out of 17 league games.

That more recent history suggests that it would be extremely surprising if Leeds were now to win all of their remaining games, meaning that they would have finished the season on a 6 match winning run. They can drop points in any of their remaining fixtures. Obviously, Brentford and Villa look the most difficult but even Norwich - a much more potent attacking team than Leeds - have just found Wigan to be problematic.

After Saturday's sickener, the team will hopefully get back to staying on the front foot and play the way that we're used to. If it doesn't work and it costs us goals, so be it, because, after all the Manager and the fans have made it clear that that is what we want them to do, and there can be no complaints.
 
I do hope that this is a nugget of encouragement :)

"When Millwall went a goal down they had to show more ambition, but we just went backwards instead of trusting the shape. We went backwards in thought and in play and paid the price,” Wilder added.

"After the goal they deserved a point, but we never showed enough ambition to go on and score the second, which is uncharacteristic from our team.
"We played safe and didn't go for the jugular. We played backwards and square and sat in, so I'm not surprised they got back into the game and deservedly so."

https://www.thestar.co.uk/sport/foo...without-influentual-banned-defender-1-9713678
 
GreasyChipBeattie said:
Below are a few observations from the 14 Championship promotions.
Apologies if it's a bit difficult to read, but it's most recent season first with the final points won by second place to go up, the points difference between 2nd and 3rd after 42 games and whether the positions at 42 games changed or not by the end of the season.

You'd expect the positions to remain the same where there was a 6 point, 8 point and 11 point gap with 4 to play, but 3rd only overtook 2nd where the gap was less than 2 points. Sorry ladies and gentlemen :(
Actually, bollox to that, let's win 'em all, watch Leeds fall apart again and make history :)

2018 90 2 points Same
2017 93 8 points Same
2016 89 2 points Same
2015 89 0 points Changed
2014 93 8 points Same
2013 79 6 points Same
2012 88 6 points Same
2011 84 1 point Changed
2010 91 11 points Same
2009 83 1 point Same
2008 79 1 point Changed
2007 86 1 point Changed
2006 90 9 points Same
2005 87 0 points Same
Click to expand...
How do you arrive at the conclusion that it "doesn't look good"? Since 2005 there have been 8 occasions where there was only one game's result separating 2nd and 3rd at this stage of the season - 4 of those finished with 3rd overtaking 2nd. That's a 50-50 chance, just going on historical statistics, not considering anything else.
 
Dalelane01 said:
Lets concetrate on the future.history means othing .historically britain was amed great and they were.look at them now little britain we can be great the great blades of 2018/19.trust in our king .king wilder
Click to expand...

Indeed. 'king Wilder, 'king Blades, the season is turning to 'king rat sh*t! ;)
 
Leeds are only 3 points in front. So, using your data, in years where the points difference was 3 or less, the position changed 50% and stayed the same 50%. So, we're fine.
Even more encouraging, no 3rd place team in the last 14 years, who had a points difference of 3 failed to get to 2nd...
 
Hamburg Blade said:
How do you arrive at the conclusion that it "doesn't look good"? Since 2005 there have been 8 occasions where there was only one game's result separating 2nd and 3rd at this stage of the season - 4 of those finished with 3rd overtaking 2nd. That's a 50-50 chance, just going on historical statistics, not considering anything else.
Click to expand...
The fact that no team in the history of 14 Championship promotion seasons has turned round a 2 point deficit, let alone 3 point deficit lead me to that conclusion.
If that gives us a 50% chance of going up through the autos, it gives me a 100% chance of knowing f**k all about maths.
Having said that, looking at Leeds run in, we might be the first to do it if we can win all 4.
 



BladeFisher said:
Ahhaa. You missed the blindingly obvious my boy. It only ever stayed the same for a maximum of three seasons. So a change is on the cards.

Mystic Syd
Click to expand...
Yes, look:

2018 90 2 points Same
2017 93 8 points Same

2015 89 0 points Changed
2014 93 8 points Same
2013 79 6 points Same

2011 84 1 point Changed
2010 91 11 points Same
2009 83 1 point Same

2007 86 1 point Changed
2006 90 9 points Same
2005 87 0 points Same

Same, Same, Changed is the pattern. We are statistically guaranteed automatic.
Fact.
 
LS16Blade said:
In my opinion, 12 points will definitely get the job done and there is a strong possibility that 10 points will.

Bielsa has undoubtedly squeezed a lot out of some Leeds players who looked mediocre last season, but the reality is that, since 'spygate' curtailed their dodgy surveillance methods, they've lost 7 out of 17 league games.

That more recent history suggests that it would be extremely surprising if Leeds were now to win all of their remaining games, meaning that they would have finished the season on a 6 match winning run. They can drop points in any of their remaining fixtures. Obviously, Brentford and Villa look the most difficult but even Norwich - a much more potent attacking team than Leeds - have just found Wigan to be problematic.

After Saturday's sickener, the team will hopefully get back to staying on the front foot and play the way that we're used to. If it doesn't work and it costs us goals, so be it, because, after all the Manager and the fans have made it clear that that is what we want them to do, and there can be no complaints.
Click to expand...
Sorry mate but Villa will be in the play offs for sure before they play Leeds and I fully expect them to be resting their first teamers until the semi's and play the kids against Leeds.
 
Bladesthorpe said:
Sorry mate but Villa will be in the play offs for sure before they play Leeds and I fully expect them to be resting their first teamers until the semi's and play the kids against Leeds.
Click to expand...

Under EFL rules teams are required for end of season games to play a minimum of 10 outfield players who featured on the previous weeks team sheet. Doesn't stipulate whether the team sheet includes subs. Presumably it does so teams could still only name as little as four in the starting line from the previous game provided the 6 outfield subs all played in the previous game. Not much of a deterrent really!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/footbal...-new-rules-stop-teams-playing-weakened-sides/
 
Bladesthorpe said:
Sorry mate but Villa will be in the play offs for sure before they play Leeds and I fully expect them to be resting their first teamers until the semi's and play the kids against Leeds.
Click to expand...

I'd be very surprised to see Dean Smith resting players at any stage.

Villa are currently flying and on a club record-equalling run of victories. It would be very poor management to break that momentum by fielding a weakened team in the 4 remaining games. Dean Smith will be only too aware of how form can be lost given that its only about 5 weeks since they couldn't get a win for love nor money.

And that is without taking into account the fact that when Villa go to Ellland Road, the likelihood is that there will be every possibility that Villa could be playing a side that they could still meet in the play-offs. In those circumstances, why would you rock up with the second string, take a defeat and cede the psychological advantage to a side you might meet at Wembley? The memory of Leeds stealing a 3-2 win at Villa Park earlier in the season might also still be burning in Villa minds. Big noise players such as Grealish and Abraham aren't going to allow themselves to be the cannon fodder at a Leeds promotion party; they'd love to spoil it.

So, for me, the idea that Villa won't be 'at it' at Leeds is misconceived. Resting players ahead of the play-offs might seem normal to us a Blades because we've had a number of dopey managers over the years who have done precisely that, leading to us going into play-offs on the back of draws and defeats and with our first team 'cold' rather than tuned and ready to go. Other clubs tend not to be so daft.
 
GreasyChipBeattie said:
The fact that no team in the history of 14 Championship promotion seasons has turned round a 2 point deficit, let alone 3 point deficit lead me to that conclusion.
If that gives us a 50% chance of going up through the autos, it gives me a 100% chance of knowing f**k all about maths.
Having said that, looking at Leeds run in, we might be the first to do it if we can win all 4.
Click to expand...
That's because you're looking at points, rather than results. Statistics always lie. Mainly because we simplify them to give us a clear answer, but by doing that we take out too many factors.
Last year nothing changed in the last four because both teams got 7 points, but that means that Fulham were one result away - they had to win one of the games they lost or drew.
Where did you get your stats from? For 2015/16 I get a four point gap after 42 games, with Brighton catching up those 4 points and failing on goal difference. They also had two games from the four where they had only to better their result to go up. Had the gap been 2 points, they would have made it.
In 2012/13, although 3rd didn't catch up, 2nd place Hull didn't win in any of their last 4 and Watford caught up 4 points in the last 4 games, which would see us up. They also had two results where they had to win instead of lose to go up.
Similar in 2011/12, where 3rd caught up 4 points in the last four games.
2010/11 I also get different stats - 4 point difference and no change.
2008/9 was of course us, where we actually dropped 2 points. After a run of 5 unbeaten, we still had the chance to overtake Birmingham who dropped 5 points in the last 4.
It just depends how you look at it - 4 times from the last 8 seasons, 3rd place caught up 3 points or more on 2nd.
 
Bladesthorpe said:
Sorry mate but Villa will be in the play offs for sure before they play Leeds and I fully expect them to be resting their first teamers until the semi's and play the kids against Leeds.
Click to expand...
Villa will want to play at home in the 2nd leg of the play off semi final and if on the 28th, they still have a chance they will be playing their strongest team at L**ds
 
Hamburg Blade said:
That's because you're looking at points, rather than results. Statistics always lie. Mainly because we simplify them to give us a clear answer, but by doing that we take out too many factors.
Last year nothing changed in the last four because both teams got 7 points, but that means that Fulham were one result away - they had to win one of the games they lost or drew.
Where did you get your stats from? For 2015/16 I get a four point gap after 42 games, with Brighton catching up those 4 points and failing on goal difference. They also had two games from the four where they had only to better their result to go up. Had the gap been 2 points, they would have made it.
In 2012/13, although 3rd didn't catch up, 2nd place Hull didn't win in any of their last 4 and Watford caught up 4 points in the last 4 games, which would see us up. They also had two results where they had to win instead of lose to go up.
Similar in 2011/12, where 3rd caught up 4 points in the last four games.
2010/11 I also get different stats - 4 point difference and no change.
2008/9 was of course us, where we actually dropped 2 points. After a run of 5 unbeaten, we still had the chance to overtake Birmingham who dropped 5 points in the last 4.
It just depends how you look at it - 4 times from the last 8 seasons, 3rd place caught up 3 points or more on 2nd.
Click to expand...

That's because you're looking at points, rather than results. Statistics always lie. Mainly because we simplify them to give us a clear answer, but by doing that we take out too many factors.
I take your point that there are other factors to consider, but if anything, that would strengthen the case. No set of circumstances has provided a team with enough momentum, players back from injury, playing higher/lower teams, teams with nothing to play for, weather conditions, selling out of pies before half time or anything else!

Last year nothing changed in the last four because both teams got 7 points, but that means that Fulham were one result away - they had to win one of the games they lost or drew.
That's my point HB. They didn't and failed to gain enough extra points in four games compared to Cardiff's haul.

Where did you get your stats from? For 2015/16 I get a four point gap after 42 games, with Brighton catching up those 4 points and failing on goal difference. They also had two games from the four where they had only to better their result to go up. Had the gap been 2 points, they would have made it.
https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-championship/16-april-2016/
https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-championship/16-june-2016/
According to the 11v11 website the gap was 2 points after 42 games.

In 2012/13, although 3rd didn't catch up, 2nd place Hull didn't win in any of their last 4 and Watford caught up 4 points in the last 4 games, which would see us up. They also had two results where they had to win instead of lose to go up.
Watford went LWWL. If we do that, and end up on 85 points, Leeds would need to either win one and lose three or draw three and lose one for us to go up.
For every 'all Fulham had to do' there would have been an 'all Hull had to do' Bottom line is Hull didn't need to because Fulham didn't.

Similar in 2011/12, where 3rd caught up 4 points in the last four games.
Again, both Southampton and Reading were 6 ahead with 12 to play for. West ham went WDWW and would have gone up with WWWW, but couldn't manage it. If we go WDWW we finish on 89 points. Leeds would need to WDLW. Chances of both scenarios happening?

2010/11 I also get different stats - 4 point difference and no change.
https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-championship/20-april-2011/ Norwich in third, one point behind Cardiff in Second.
https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-championship/20-june-2011/ Cardiff fell away, Norwich finished second Swansea finished third

2008/9 was of course us, where we actually dropped 2 points. After a run of 5 unbeaten, we still had the chance to overtake Birmingham who dropped 5 points in the last 4.
It just depends how you look at it - 4 times from the last 8 seasons, 3rd place caught up 3 points or more on 2nd.
I agree HB, it does depend how you look at it. It seems that the more of a cushion second place is, the more likely third place catch up a bit, probably because to the team almost over the line easing off a bit?

Anyway, all will be revealed soon enough mate. Let's hope we can do it :)
 
GreasyChipBeattie said:
Below are a few observations from the 14 Championship promotions.
Apologies if it's a bit difficult to read, but it's most recent season first with the final points won by second place to go up, the points difference between 2nd and 3rd after 42 games and whether the positions at 42 games changed or not by the end of the season.

You'd expect the positions to remain the same where there was a 6 point, 8 point and 11 point gap with 4 to play, but 3rd only overtook 2nd where the gap was less than 2 points. Sorry ladies and gentlemen :(
Actually, bollox to that, let's win 'em all, watch Leeds fall apart again and make history :)

2018 90 2 points Same
2016 89 2 points Same
2015 89 0 points Changed
2011 84 1 point Changed
2009 83 1 point Same
2008 79 1 point Changed
2007 86 1 point Change
2005 87 0 points Same
Click to expand...
a bit negative really. there are no 3 point gaps to compare but looking at less than 6 points there were 8 seasons and 4 changed. stats eh ;-)
 
GreasyChipBeattie said:
That's because you're looking at points, rather than results. Statistics always lie. Mainly because we simplify them to give us a clear answer, but by doing that we take out too many factors.
I take your point that there are other factors to consider, but if anything, that would strengthen the case. No set of circumstances has provided a team with enough momentum, players back from injury, playing higher/lower teams, teams with nothing to play for, weather conditions, selling out of pies before half time or anything else!

Last year nothing changed in the last four because both teams got 7 points, but that means that Fulham were one result away - they had to win one of the games they lost or drew.
That's my point HB. They didn't and failed to gain enough extra points in four games compared to Cardiff's haul.

Where did you get your stats from? For 2015/16 I get a four point gap after 42 games, with Brighton catching up those 4 points and failing on goal difference. They also had two games from the four where they had only to better their result to go up. Had the gap been 2 points, they would have made it.
https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-championship/16-april-2016/
https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-championship/16-june-2016/
According to the 11v11 website the gap was 2 points after 42 games.

In 2012/13, although 3rd didn't catch up, 2nd place Hull didn't win in any of their last 4 and Watford caught up 4 points in the last 4 games, which would see us up. They also had two results where they had to win instead of lose to go up.
Watford went LWWL. If we do that, and end up on 85 points, Leeds would need to either win one and lose three or draw three and lose one for us to go up.
For every 'all Fulham had to do' there would have been an 'all Hull had to do' Bottom line is Hull didn't need to because Fulham didn't.

Similar in 2011/12, where 3rd caught up 4 points in the last four games.
Again, both Southampton and Reading were 6 ahead with 12 to play for. West ham went WDWW and would have gone up with WWWW, but couldn't manage it. If we go WDWW we finish on 89 points. Leeds would need to WDLW. Chances of both scenarios happening?

2010/11 I also get different stats - 4 point difference and no change.
https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-championship/20-april-2011/ Norwich in third, one point behind Cardiff in Second.
https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-championship/20-june-2011/ Cardiff fell away, Norwich finished second Swansea finished third

2008/9 was of course us, where we actually dropped 2 points. After a run of 5 unbeaten, we still had the chance to overtake Birmingham who dropped 5 points in the last 4.
It just depends how you look at it - 4 times from the last 8 seasons, 3rd place caught up 3 points or more on 2nd.
I agree HB, it does depend how you look at it. It seems that the more of a cushion second place is, the more likely third place catch up a bit, probably because to the team almost over the line easing off a bit?

Anyway, all will be revealed soon enough mate. Let's hope we can do it :)
Click to expand...
Ah, I couldn't find a website that gave a table on a given date. I was using a final table and looking at the last four results of 2nd and 3rd place finishers.
The point I was trying to make is that in most last 4 game run ins there has been ample opportunity. Often, by this stage, the gap is too big and even a good finish isn't enough, but those occasions where it was close but the 2nd place team didn't make it are still too few for it to be compelling. Because of 3 points for a win, I don't see a big difference between 1 and 3 points, particularly as we have a better goal difference. I find statistics to be misleading and in this case I think the margin of change to close - just 1 game - for historical stats like this to be relevant.
The biggest problem for me is the final game. I think we already have to be 3 points ahead with a decent goal difference going into the last match, which is a lot to ask, but we'll see.
 



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