ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
As many will have read, I posted a set of results for the remainder of our games that would lead to a 75-point final total, which is likely to be the minimum for 6th place this season. This led to the usual assault from the doomsayers, who seem to regard any level of optimism as a capital offence! I have always tried to emphasise that these are not predictions, but simply a benchmark against which we can compare our progress.
One thing that is true, is that our progress is irrelevant if it isn’t compared to that of our closest rivals. I have, therefore, created a similar set of benchmark results (Table 1) for Wrexham and Southampton, which also lead to a 75 point finish for them. Again, I would emphasise that these are not predictions, just something against which to monitor progress. 75 points is a highly optimistic goal for us - and a fairly pessimistic goal for Wrexham and Southampton – but by monitoring the forecast change in final totals, as the actual results replace the benchmark results, we will see clearly how our chances are developing.
Table 1:
Graph 1 shows the full season, with actual results and benchmark forecasts for all 3 of us. It is interesting that, despite our bad start to the season, we were within 2 points of Wrexham after our Birmingham game, and just 1 point behind Saints from games 25 to 30 for both of us. (Remember that the graph shows points after the same number of games – not at the same moment in time.)
Graph 1:
Graph 2 is the one that I will continue to post each week, as the actual results replace the benchmarks. This will then show our progress against the benchmarks, and the resulting changes in the forecast totals for the 3 teams. (Should Hull drop down to be level or below 6th place, I will bring them into the comparison).
Graph 2:
Incidentally, in the unlikely event that we did all finish on 75 points, we would probably still only be 8th – as our goal difference is unlikely to close the gap, unless we deliver a thrashing or two to somebody!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
One thing that is true, is that our progress is irrelevant if it isn’t compared to that of our closest rivals. I have, therefore, created a similar set of benchmark results (Table 1) for Wrexham and Southampton, which also lead to a 75 point finish for them. Again, I would emphasise that these are not predictions, just something against which to monitor progress. 75 points is a highly optimistic goal for us - and a fairly pessimistic goal for Wrexham and Southampton – but by monitoring the forecast change in final totals, as the actual results replace the benchmark results, we will see clearly how our chances are developing.
Table 1:
Graph 1 shows the full season, with actual results and benchmark forecasts for all 3 of us. It is interesting that, despite our bad start to the season, we were within 2 points of Wrexham after our Birmingham game, and just 1 point behind Saints from games 25 to 30 for both of us. (Remember that the graph shows points after the same number of games – not at the same moment in time.)
Graph 1:
Graph 2 is the one that I will continue to post each week, as the actual results replace the benchmarks. This will then show our progress against the benchmarks, and the resulting changes in the forecast totals for the 3 teams. (Should Hull drop down to be level or below 6th place, I will bring them into the comparison).
Graph 2:
Incidentally, in the unlikely event that we did all finish on 75 points, we would probably still only be 8th – as our goal difference is unlikely to close the gap, unless we deliver a thrashing or two to somebody!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
