Matchday 1 Graphs, Charts & Chat – Bluesology

[ucandomagic]

Not a lot to talk about from the game. Our wingers are too weak in their upper bodies to play inverted, our defence looks solid and, as I wrote in another post, the real Michael Cooper is back – which will have more effect on our league position than any signing in or out.

I mentioned earlier that I will post a couple of graphs each week – one with promotion targets and the other with comparisons to the last 2 seasons. I’m only showing the first 10 matches on the graphs at the moment, so that the difference between the lines is visible! The target lines are my forecasts for each actual match that will deliver the target totals at the end of the season.

First of all we have to decide on the targets:-

Chart 1 is Top 3 points this century – 92 still seems the target for autos - always beats 3rd.

Chart 1:


Chart 2 shows 4th, 5th , 8th and 9th positions for the last 10 years –
4th is automatic playoff semi-finals and 8th is into the playoffs.

Chart 2:


Considering Chart 2, I am taking a 70 points target for 8th and an 81 points target for 4th.


Graph 1 plots our progress against those promotion targets, with my forecast for each match that will deliver those targets. After one game, we are on the playoffs line!

Graph 1:



Graph 2 is the comparison with our last 2 seasons – and we are obviously already ahead of last season – as we had no points from our first 6 games!

Graph 2:


Overall, as I have said elsewhere, our squad is good enough for the playoffs, as long as Michael Cooper continues to be the 24/25 version that we saw against Birmingham, with his injury put behind him.

Swansea next, and I have a draw for that game for all 3 of my Paths to the Prem lines!

UTB & Slava Ukraini!

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

We didn’t create much against Brum, but Big Pat should probably have done better, and then we would have pinched a 1-0 result. If we are to get near the 70 point 8th place target on the graph, it will be by pinching scrappy games like this, like we did 2 years ago.
UTB & FTP

 

[Houston_Blade]

We didn’t create much against Brum, but Big Pat should probably have done better, and then we would have pinched a 1-0 result. If we are to get near the 70 point 8th place target on the graph, it will be by pinching scrappy games like this, like we did 2 years ago.
UTB & FTP

I sympathise with Bamford, if he gets 3 chances like that he’ll score 1 of them. With our midfield he’ll get 1 per game at most.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

I sympathise with Bamford, if he gets 3 chances like that he’ll score 1 of them. With our midfield he’ll get 1 per game at most.

We don’t make enough chances for Pat because of Wilder’s insistence on inverted wingers. We used to get round the back all the time and hammer low balls across - meat & drink for Big Pat to score. Our weak inverted wingers cut in and lose the ball rather than get it back outside to the overlapping FB. Somehow we need to find the players/ formation to create regular overloads and low crosses like the days of 3-5-2.

 

[Silent Blade]

We don’t make enough chances for Pat because of Wilder’s insistence on inverted wingers. We used to get round the back all the time and hammer low balls across - meat & drink for Big Pat to score. Our weak inverted wingers cut in and lose the ball rather than get it back outside to the overlapping FB. Somehow we need to find the players/ formation to create regular overloads and low crosses like the days of 3-5-2.

Plenty of teams play with inverted wingers including the best teams in Europe.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

Plenty of teams play with inverted wingers including the best teams in Europe.

That is the exact point. It is fashionable among managers, because it is a great tactic - but it only works if your wingers are physically up to it. Iliman would have been perfect in that role. When a winger cuts inside there is generally contact and to keep possession you need a strong upper body. Donovan, in particular, is not strong and the slightest contact knocks him off the ball and we lose possession. Going outside, where he can push the ball down the line and use his speed to beat the defender, any contact is a foul or else he gets round and has a crossing opportunity - so he is far better utilised in a traditional role where his crossing foot is then his strong foot.

 

[Silent Blade]

That is the exact point. It is fashionable among managers, because it is a great tactic - but it only works if your wingers are physically up to it. Iliman would have been perfect in that role. When a winger cuts inside there is generally contact and to keep possession you need a strong upper body. Donovan, in particular, is not strong and the slightest contact knocks him off the ball and we lose possession. Going outside, where he can push the ball down the line and use his speed to beat the defender, any contact is a foul or else he gets round and has a crossing opportunity - so he is far better utilised in a traditional role where his crossing foot is then his strong foot.

You have seen Donovan once, give him more time before making a judgement!