6th is Still Doable “Updated Charts & Graphs After Hoops”- Matchday 35

[Chief_Froley]

Every time we pick up a win I'm always like "It's just a little 9 point gap. It's still good it's still good!"

 

[Deadbat]

It’s not going to happen mainly because Davies is going to cost us.

I didn't think we'd get close and that was before Davies ended up in goal. As comfortable as we were yesterday, the lad shows some composure after Davies' rush of blood and it's a goal. Ditto on the Hayden header - when Davies is like superman again. Similar to Cov goal away.

These were two awful pieces of goalkeeping he/we somehow got away with it. If he makes mistakes like that every week, we will lose more than we win.

I think we will win next week v WBA but the back to back at Brum/Norwich will probably kill it for good even before we play Wrexham.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

The playoff pathway only has a draw at Birmingham and Bristol City and Watford.
UTB & FTP!

 

[Living In a Fantasy World]

Wrexham has a a tough run in till the end of the season, they are facing a lot of playoff hopefuls.
all we can do is try to win the next game, we might be able to snatch the 6th spot.

 

[Constantly Optimistic...]

I don't rate Hull. Their luck can't hold imo. And they also have a tough run in. Can see them drop like a stone. If so Saints, Hollywood, us and maybe Derby might be fighting for last 2 spots. Still very tough and tge Davies factor may be tge deciding one to keep us 10th to 8th at best. And we are nowhere near ready for EPL.

 

[Guesty]

I was thinking about this earlier.

In my lifetime we've finished 8th in the second tier five times but never 7th.

I always say that 8th in the second tier is our natural point of rest.

 

[3Cheers4Ramirez]

We have basically all of the play off chasers away from home

We can win every game at home but based on the above it's a huge uphill task

 

[MayorOJC]

I don't think Wrexham will make it, they're outplaying their xG and xGA quite a bit. Riding some luck. Stil think it'll be Ipswich, Millwall, Southampton, Birmingham

 

[Flumps]

It’s not going to happen mainly because Davies is going to cost us.

I hate to agree but that was my first thought too. We've had Davies for some time and in the times he's played I can't say I've ever felt relaxed

With that being said it's his time to prove himself, gain some confidence and I am 1 million percent happy to be proved wrong.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

I always say that 8th in the second tier is our natural point of rest.

28th in the pyramid in modern times is probably about right.

But if you consider the whole of English league history we'd be in the top 20.

We'd be side by side with Wednesday at about 17th/18th.

 

[nopigfansintown]

It'd take something incredible. Beating every team we play who are above us and winning almost every game.

 

[HVR]

Both Southampton and Wrexham play in the Cup this weekend, we’re at home to WBA…

 

[bladesince64]

Davies does not exactly exude confidence in any of us and I get that but Cooper clearly has a serious knee injury and is physically unable to play.

How does that mean that Wilder has given up on the play-offs?

Bizarre to say the least!

 

[JayGreen17]

We’ll win Saturday, but it will be all or nothing from Norwich - Brum - Wrexham we need at least 7 points from those and have to beat Wrexham in that to have any chance.. I think the Norwich game will be very tough, form team in the division..

If we get through these and beat Wrexham to get within 3-6pts of 6th it could be on.. MASSIVE 3 weeks!

 

[JayGreen17]

I don't rate Hull. Their luck can't hold imo. And they also have a tough run in. Can see them drop like a stone. If so Saints, Hollywood, us and maybe Derby might be fighting for last 2 spots. Still very tough and tge Davies factor may be tge deciding one to keep us 10th to 8th at best. And we are nowhere near ready for EPL.

Who the hell cares! Get the money invest in the new training ground and facilities..

 

[Keen Blade]

Davies does not exactly exude confidence in any of us and I get that but Cooper clearly has a serious knee injury and is physically unable to play.

How does that mean that Wilder has given up on the play-offs?

Bizarre to say the least!

Both Cooper's knees are dodgy and have had previous operations - it's why his fee was below par for his quality.

It's the kind of risks we take.

 

[wavy-blade]

 

[Pedro Verde]

I don't think Wrexham will make it, they're outplaying their xG and xGA quite a bit

I think that means Fuck All if they keep winning games of football

 

[thehet]

I know I’m deluded – but I’ve been going for over 55 years, and I’ve seen that anything can happen.

Table 1:
View attachment 232277

UTB & Slava Ukraini!

This has us not losing another game all season, having so far lost the 3rd highest in the league and as many as Oxford.

Deludemol.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

This has us not losing another game all season, having so far lost the 3rd highest in the league and as many as Oxford.

Deludemol.

This has been discussed before. Pathway results are not individual game forecasts, but the easiest paths to achieve an end goal. We can lose a game, but then a win in one of the draws on the pathway would balance 2 losses.
UTB & FTP!

 

[thehet]

This has been discussed before. Pathway results are not individual game forecasts, but the easiest paths to achieve an end goal. We can lose a game, but then a win in one of the draws on the pathway would balance 2 losses.
UTB & FTP!

Easiest path based on what exactly?

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

Easiest path based on what exactly?

Based on the specific opponents.

The pathway has draws away at Bristol City, Watford and Birmingham, as our 3 most difficult fixtures, but we might equally lose 2 of them and win the other.

When you need to achieve a goal you look at the individual steps and assess relative difficulty. Only when an individual step has an unrealistic requirement do you need to abandon that goal.

At a more quantitative level you could assess an exact probability of each of the 3 results (w, l, d) for each of the 11 games and come up with an overall probability of achievement - but that is being a bit too precise with too little data in this situation.

I take the main purpose of the post to be simply to show that there is still a realistic, if unlikely, path to a 75 point goal.

On the other hand, if ucdm were to apply the same approach to Southampton’s fixtures, then they have an equally likely path to 78 points. So, in my opinion, even achieving what he takes as the most ambitious realistic target would probably not be enough for sixth place.

I do, however, very much enjoy his analyses and graphical representations.

UTB & FTP!

 

[MobileBlade]

I don't rate Hull. Their luck can't hold imo. And they also have a tough run in. Can see them drop like a stone. If so Saints, Hollywood, us and maybe Derby might be fighting for last 2 spots. Still very tough and tge Davies factor may be tge deciding one to keep us 10th to 8th at best. And we are nowhere near ready for EPL.

Hulls next three is Ipwich, Millwall, Wrexham. See where they are after those (its then West Brom, Wednesday, Oxford, Coventry).

 

[The Vicar]

No chance, Wrexham win 5 from 11, we ned to win 8 from 11 just to get level, high alone is highly improbable and virtually impossible looking at our games.

Even then if Wrexham lose 4 and draw 2, we need to win 9! Really? Enjoy the ride the destination is virtually assured.

 

[Selly]

Is it possible, yes.

Is it probable, absolutely not.

However, as we all saw last season, even a team capable of breaking the 90 point barrier is capable of losing 3 on the bounce.

Win the next one and see where we are.

 

[MayorOJC]

I think that means Fuck All if they keep winning games of football

True, but it's as good an indicator of where a team will end up as any.

 

[Bladesman]

Our season was done away at Charlton realistically.

I admire the optimism and I can see why with how poor the league is.

 

[Bartleby]

28th in the pyramid in modern times is probably about right.

But if you consider the whole of English league history we'd be in the top 20.

We'd be side by side with Wednesday at about 17th/18th.

Yep, 19th according to https://footballrates.com/average-league-position with an average position of 22.3, them lot just below.

Everton at 3rd surprises me, as does Boro being above us.

 

[thehet]

Based on the specific opponents.

The pathway has draws away at Bristol City, Watford and Birmingham, as our 3 most difficult fixtures, but we might equally lose 2 of them and win the other.

When you need to achieve a goal you look at the individual steps and assess relative difficulty. Only when an individual step has an unrealistic requirement do you need to abandon that goal.

At a more quantitative level you could assess an exact probability of each of the 3 results (w, l, d) for each of the 11 games and come up with an overall probability of achievement - but that is being a bit too precise with too little data in this situation.

I take the main purpose of the post to be simply to show that there is still a realistic, if unlikely, path to a 75 point goal.

On the other hand, if ucdm were to apply the same approach to Southampton’s fixtures, then they have an equally likely path to 78 points. So, in my opinion, even achieving what he takes as the most ambitious realistic target would probably not be enough for sixth place.

I do, however, very much enjoy his analyses and graphical representations.

UTB & FTP!

And my challenge is on what evidence is it "realistic" given we have lost 17 games this season so far.

 

[Tom Bott]

My lottery ticket for Saturday was doable for the jackpot.

I didn't even win £10 though, so I wont be submitting a bid to buy the Porkers.

Mathematical possibility V relative probability V cognitive positivity.

I wonder what James Bord's AI model shows.