The Numbers Thread (Will Be Updated After Each Game)

[Revolution]

On a less scientific note, there are now more points between us and fifth placed MK Dons (9) than MK Dons have games left (8). One rule of thumb I use in these situations is that if the points gap is higher than games left, it makes it extremely unlikely that the lower placed team will pass the higher placed side. Mind you, we have bigger fish to fry than 4th place...

As for the next few games, as I have said before Hartlepool and Bournemouth will of course not lay down but at the end of the day they are the most disinterested teams in the division, having no chance of the playoffs or relegation. They may not be fighting as hard as, say, Rochdale will.

 

[2ndtenorblade]

I know the form scores may look odd, but remember they take into account the form of the teams you've recently played, not just the results. Hope there's enough info there to satisfy even the most stat-hungry person out there

Keep up the good work.

 

[travellingblade]

Sheff Utd
- 7 Games to Play (Average Pos 14th, Average Form 17th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 20 = 2.46 PPG (Impossible from 7 Games)

What's "Impossible" about 20 points from 7 games.

Improbable - YES; Impossible - NO

 

[blade too long]

you can only get 18 19 or 21 points from 7 games as you cant get 2 points from 1 game
so you cant get 20

 

[Selly]

In the last 10 seasons, the team placed third has acheived:

A maximum of 87 points (twice)
A minimum of 73 points
An Average of 82.5 points
A Mode value of 83 points
A median value of 83 points

the team placed second has acheived:

A maximum of 92 points (twice)
A minimum of 79 points
An Average of 85.2 points
A Mode value of 86 points
A median value of 85.5 points

no I suspect that we will be tending towards the maximum levels this season, but even so, if we get 4 more wins from 7 games history tells us that it would be unlikely for 2 teams to get more than us...

(of course if there were a team that could finish with the highest 3rd placed points total in 11 seasons, that team would be SUFC)

 

[dannycorker]

Just worked out form scores again using spreadsheet, a couple were a tiny bit wrong so here's fully correct numbers.

Form Scores

Notts County - 6.00
Sheff Utd - 5.50
Sheff Wed - 4.08
MK Dons - 3.61
Charlton - 3.40
Carlisle - 3.00
Huddersfield - 2.67
Stevenage - 2.50

When you look at the teams that Notts County have played recently it's easy to see why they have such a high score. They've played the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th best form teams in the league as 4 of their last 6, and to come out with 8 points isn't a bad return. Their average form faced was 6th. Compare this to Carlisle, who many are raging about and you see they have got 12 points from playing an average form position of 18th. Huddersfield have been equally under-performing, taking the same 12 points as Carlisle but against an average form position of 19th.

I know most of us are interested in ourselves and Wednesday. Our average opposition based on form has been 12th, and we have taken 11 points. Wednesday have taken 14 points but only against an average of 17th.

 

[Selly]

I know most of us are interested in ourselves and Wednesday. Our average opposition based on form has been 12th, and we have taken 11 points. Wednesday have taken 14 points but only against an average of 17th.

until such time as Huddersfield are cut adrift (if indeed they are) I'm certainly interested in them, if they win their game in hand, they have the same points as Wednesday with a better GD...

 

[dannycorker]

until such time as Huddersfield are cut adrift (if indeed they are) I'm certainly interested in them, if they win their game in hand, they have the same points as Wednesday with a better GD...

Yeah I know - I'm more worried about them myself at the moment! But I think most of our fans are more interested in Wednesday for obvious reasons.

It's encouraging too see that both Hudders and Wednesday have been playing mostly out of form teams recently, and they both have much more difficult teams coming up than we do.

 

[Highbury_Blade]

On a less scientific note, there are now more points between us and fifth placed MK Dons (9) than MK Dons have games left (8). One rule of thumb I use in these situations is that if the points gap is higher than games left, it makes it extremely unlikely that the lower placed team will pass the higher placed side. Mind you, we have bigger fish to fry than 4th place...

As for the next few games, as I have said before Hartlepool and Bournemouth will of course not lay down but at the end of the day they are the most disinterested teams in the division, having no chance of the playoffs or relegation. They may not be fighting as hard as, say, Rochdale will.

All eyes will be on that Rochdale v Walsall game on Saturday. If Walsall win, Rochdale are almost certainly goners.

I think they'll be pretty demoralised by the time that we play them, ditto for Exeter

 

[grafikhaus]

Looking bloody good!!! (The 'Like' button is down there!)

 

[BladeFisher]

A Sheffield double!?

After today’s results the current form indicates a steel city double could be on with Charlton missing out on automatic promotion. The 6 game form predictor for the final table points total is as follows with previous points totals in brackets:

United 93 (89-84-84-82)
Wednesday 93 (90-90-90-90)
Charlton 92 (90-95-94)
Huddersfield 84 (87-83-82)
Carlisle 78 (77-72-75-76)
MK Dons 75 (76-79-83-81)
Stevenage 68 (69-69-69-68)
Notts Co 68 (66-69-76)
Brentford 67 (65-59-53)
Colchester 58 (58-63-66-67)

United on current form are predicted to finish champions on goal difference from Wednesday.

You can see now that a few results have passed how changes in form influence the predicted out turns and also how teams have suddenly started to perform better e.g. United and worse e.g. MK Dons

Based on the season’s average ppg (as opposed to the current form) the out turn looks like

Charlton 98 (97)
United 91 (90)
Wednesday 89 (87)
Huddersfield 84 (86)
MK Dons 77 (79)
Carlisle 75 (74)
Stevenage 70 (70)
Notts Co 69 (67)
Brentford 66 (64)
Colchester 61 (61)

As for performance against the seasons average we can see how current form (last 6 games) compares against the seasons form and which sides are doing better or worse than their current season's average. Figures in brackets are a comparison with the previous fixtures performance.

United 118% (94%-69%)
Wednesday 139% (123%-125%)
Charlton 55 (55%-77%)
Huddersfield 101% (107%-91%)
Carlisle 122% (125%-96%)
MK Dons 80% (78%-85%)
Stevenage 88% (87%-87%)
Notts Co 89% (91%-113%)
Brentford 104% (108%)
Colchester 63% (62%-97%)

The pressure is really on now. Wednesday are unbelievable at the moment, if they win next week it could be very tight, but United are responding!

 

[Selly]

Wednesday's form has got better due to the fact hat there last loss was the first in their 8 game form. Their ration of 139% won't last long if they hit anything resembling normal form.

Even if hey win next week, we take second with a win at home to bournemouth, I suspect and hope they wil drop points, but evening they don't it is in our hands still...

 

[dannycorker]

Update after today. More crazy amounts of stats.....

Charlton
- 6 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 13th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 11 = 1.83 PPG (3 wins, 2 draws. 1 left)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 5 = 0.76 PPG (1 win, 2 draws, 3 left) (5 draws, 1 left)
- Champions Magic Number: 13 = 2.17 PPG (4 wins, 1 draw, one left)

Sheff Utd
- 6 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 16th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 17 = 2.83 PPG (Impossible from 6 Games)
-'Real' Top 2 Magic Number: 18 = 3.00 PPG (6 wins)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 11 = 1.76 PPG (3 wins, 2 draws, 1 left)

Sheff Wed
- 6 Games to Play (Average Pos 11th, Average Form 9th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 21 = 3.50 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 15 = 2.58 PPG (5 wins, 2 left)

Huddersfield
- 7 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 13th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 27 = 3.86 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 21 = 3.00 PPG (7 wins)

MK Dons
- 6 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 11th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 31 = 5.17 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 25 = 4.14 PPG (Out of their hands)

Carlisle
- 7 games to Play (Average Pos 12th, Average Form 11th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 34 = 4.86 PPG (Out of their hands)
-Top 2 Projected Number: 28 = 3.98 PPG (Out of their hands)

Stevenage
- 7 Games to Play (Average Pos 11th, Average Form 10th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 39 = 5.57 PPG (Out of their hands)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 33 = 4.69 PPG (Out of their hands)

Notts County
- 6 Games to Play (Average Pos 15th, Average Form 13th)
- Top 2 Magic Number: 38 = 6.33 PPG (Impossible)
- Top 2 Projected Number: 32 = 5.33 PPG (Out of their hands)


Max Possible Points

Charlton - 103
Sheff Utd - 97
Wednesday - 95
Huddersfield - 92
MK Dons - 85
Carlisle - 85
Stevenage - 80
Notts County - 78

Projected Points

Charlton - 98
Sheff Utd - 91
Wednesday - 89
Huddersfield - 84
MK Dons - 77
Carlisle - 75
Stevenage - 70
Notts County - 69

Form Scores

Sheff Utd - 5.93
Notts County - 5.33
Sheff Wed - 4.56
Carlisle - 4.17
Huddersfield - 3.82
MK Dons - 3.61
Charlton - 3.55
Stevenage - 3.44

 

[mattbianco1]

I dont get all this!!

All i know is if pigs lose at Huds and we win v Bournemouth, we're 5 pts above with 5 to play which "Should" be enough. Come on huds!!

 

[travellingblade]

Charlton are now certain to finish in the top six, hence have secured a Play-off place as a minimum.

(I believe that they are the first club in the Football League to be certain of something).

 

[Selly]

I dont get all this!!

All i know is if pigs lose at Huds and we win v Bournemouth, we're 5 pts above with 5 to play which "Should" be enough. Come on huds!!

And we'll be averaging 2ppg across the season as a whole. 10 points from the remaining games would, barring Hudds winning all 7 remaining games and beating us on GD, be enough.

 

[BladeInBC]

It does look good - makes better reading than the league table. I wish we were 5 points clear with 2 games in hand now!

 

[dingledog]

So I can sleep easier can you let me know when the dark side are going to slip up? Or doesn't the stat calculator tell us that? Cheers, keep crunching them numbers.

 

[Pinchy]

So I can sleep easier can you let me know when the dark side are going to slip up? Or doesn't the stat calculator tell us that? Cheers, keep crunching them numbers.

I watched the first half against Preston. Garbage v Even Worse.

They'll slip up over the next three games. They are simply not good enough to continue their current run.

 

[BladeFisher]

I watched the first half against Preston. Garbage v Even Worse.

They'll slip up over the next three games. They are simply not good enough to continue their current run.

I am not so sure. Talking with John the Carlisle supporter today. I was disappointed Huddersfield didn't get something out of yesterday's game. Had they won, auto would still be on for them as they would be in a great position to turn the Pigs over next week. We must urge Town to beat Orient because that will give them momentum to beat Wednesday. I had thought Wednesday would lose at the Galpharm and home to Carlisle but now think Wednesday might turn Huddersfield over say 2-3 or something.

Indeed I think the fixtures are very even now. Weds have Town and Carlisle, we have MK and Stevenage and both might be out of their crap runs in a few games time. Last game of the season its advantage Pigs as they are at home, both of us playing relegation threatened sides. We must get 9 points from the next three games.

 

[blade too long]

Huddersfield beat Orient on Tuesday they can overtake the pigs on Saturday , of course a draw would be ideal
1 win next week can put us 4 or 5 points clear , 4 would be better as it takes out hudersfield altogether as it means a draw, either way with our gd means they , the owls . need 2 wins out of 5 left just to catch us up , could all be over in 3 games

 

[Pinchy]

I am not so sure. Talking with John the Carlisle supporter today. I was disappointed Huddersfield didn't get something out of yesterday's game. Had they won, auto would still be on for them as they would be in a great position to turn the Pigs over next week. We must urge Town to beat Orient because that will give them momentum to beat Wednesday. I had thought Wednesday would lose at the Galpharm and home to Carlisle but now think Wednesday might turn Huddersfield over say 2-3 or something.

Indeed I think the fixtures are very even now. Weds have Town and Carlisle, we have MK and Stevenage and both might be out of their crap runs in a few games time. Last game of the season its advantage Pigs as they are at home, both of us playing relegation threatened sides. We must get 9 points from the next three games.

Any objective observer, looking at the run-in would fancy us. We see barbed wire wrapped around our fixtures and fluffy bunnies jumping around theirs. Would you truly say they were even, if reversed?

If we get 87 points, we're up.

 

[Selly]

I am not so sure. Talking with John the Carlisle supporter today. I was disappointed Huddersfield didn't get something out of yesterday's game. Had they won, auto would still be on for them as they would be in a great position to turn the Pigs over next week. We must urge Town to beat Orient because that will give them momentum to beat Wednesday. I had thought Wednesday would lose at the Galpharm and home to Carlisle but now think Wednesday might turn Huddersfield over say 2-3 or something.

Indeed I think the fixtures are very even now. Weds have Town and Carlisle, we have MK and Stevenage and both might be out of their crap runs in a few games time. Last game of the season its advantage Pigs as they are at home, both of us playing relegation threatened sides. We must get 9 points from the next three games.

The advantage for us being that Weds have the hard game first. IF they slip up, we get to press home our advantage first. By the time we have played Orient at home we could, quite conceivably be 5-6 points clear with 3 games left.

That a big gap at that stage of the season...

 

[Flatulent_Bob]

87? Don't agree I think automatic will be over the 90 point mark.

 

[Selly]

Huddersfield beat Orient on Tuesday they can overtake the pigs on Saturday , of course a draw would be ideal
1 win next week can put us 4 or 5 points clear , 4 would be better as it takes out hudersfield altogether as it means a draw, either way with our gd means they , the owls . need 2 wins out of 5 left just to catch us up , could all be over in 3 games

Whatever the result for Hudds against Orient, we want them to beat Wednesday.

Fact is, Hudds beat Wednesday, we need 14 points for promotion. A draw means we need 15 points.

I know which I prefer...

 

[Selly]

87? Don't agree I think automatic will be over the 90 point mark.

I the last 10 years, the highest return by a third placed team has been 87 points, so get 88 and you'd think we would be extremely unlucky to not go up automatically...

Season form says we need 90 points, recent form says we need 93. So you may be right...

 

[Flatulent_Bob]

I just think there are too many in the chasing pack for 3 more wins to be enough to see us over the line.

We really need Huddersfield take at least one if not three points from Wednesday next week .

 

[Selly]

I just think there are too many in the chasing pack for 3 more wins to be enough to see us over the line.

We really need Huddersfield take at least one if not three points from Wednesday next week .

I think it comes down to that game. Hudds win, 88 ints is probably enough. Wendy win, probably need 92...

 

[BladeFisher]

I think it comes down to that game. Hudds win, 88 ints is probably enough. Wendy win, probably need 92...

Whatever, it is much better to be 2 points ahead and so far a superior GD. But it ain't over till its over and just because we hate Wednesday you just can't underestimate them.

Apparently Jones lost 2 in 20 when Wolves got into the play-offs and beat us at Cardiff. You under estimate him and them at your peril.

 

[Pinchy]

87? Don't agree I think automatic will be over the 90 point mark.

A fiver donation to Foxy?

I say nearer to 87 than 90.

As for the chasing pack - its just the Pigs now. Forget the others.