The case for the defence

[Beans]

Well, I spent a good chunk of my Sunday writing 2500 words on Sheffield United's defence, how about you?

This has been running round my head for a while so wanted to get it into written words rather than spoken podcast ones. Essentially, I make the case that our defence has been very good this year (backed up by most metrics - shots faced, shots on target, expected goals against) and is a huge part of why we've been so high up the league for pretty much the whole season. I also think that we've been unlucky insofar as we've conceded more goals (lots more goals, in fact) than we "should" have, and I had a look at why I think that might be.

Finally, I have some reasons to be cheerful for next season - god knows we all need some of that after this weekend

Contains a fair few stats but I tried to make sure it wasn't just a dry list of numbers Be very keen to hear people's takes on WHY we've conceded more goals than we deserved (I have some too, in the article) - cheers!

Link: Sheffield United - The Case for the Defence

 

[Davalon]

Well after that bloke did a detailed resume on our overlapping defenders, everyone sussed us and set up to stop It, and we started dropping down the table

Hope this doesn't have same effect

 

[Stretch]

Haven't listened yet Beans so you may cover this but we continue to let opposition players stroll through midfield at times, backing off until they take a pop at goal. We certainly don't close down loose balls quickly enough from corners and free kicks. Again allowing shots from 20 yards or so and good players get these on target.

 

[FTPE]

Well after that bloke did a detailed resume on our overlapping defenders, everyone sussed us and set up to stop It, and we started dropping down the table

Hope this doesn't have same effect

I'm sure there was one on our set pieces too and since we've been horrifyingly bad at them.

 

[BigBed]

Needs to do better!

Just like my school report, and 4 words that got the slipper too!

 

[Beans]

Haven't listened yet Beans so you may cover this but we continue to let opposition players stroll through midfield at times, backing off until they take a pop at goal. We certainly don't close down loose balls quickly enough from corners and free kicks. Again allowing shots from 20 yards or so and good players get these on target.

Yep, there's a little bit about that, plus a few other factors that I could think of - although I'm sure there are also some things that I couldn't come up with, so any other thoughts are welcome

 

[mattbianco1]

Well after that bloke did a detailed resume on our overlapping defenders, everyone sussed us and set up to stop It, and we started dropping down the table

Hope this doesn't have same effect

And the set pieces article.

 

[Beans]

Call me crazy, but I have a feeling that clubs at this level do more preparation for their opponents than reading what some guy off the internet has written

 

[IdLiketoRogerMoore]

I just think it's a byproduct of our formation that players find themselves in the inside right/left channels with space. With the advent of new footballs and players getting better/stronger - there seems to be greater emphasis on shooting from these positions. Especially as I say, with our formation the number of CBs means there's less space for a through ball.

Playing a 3-5-2 requires discipline and players 'passing' opponents to the next player depending on zones. I just think that hinterland inside the WB, just in front of the overlapping CB and just behind the midfield is one we've not quite come to terms with.

That and Moore sometimes jumps like he has lead boots on and Blackman's concentration/shot anticipation can be slow.

 

[Davalon]

Call me crazy, but I have a feeling that clubs at this level do more preparation for their opponents than reading what some guy off the internet has written

Not having a word of it mate.

The local coaches and local press spend plenty of time on here for 'work purposes

 

[Sothall_Blade]

Haven't listened yet Beans so you may cover this but we continue to let opposition players stroll through midfield at times, backing off until they take a pop at goal. We certainly don't close down loose balls quickly enough from corners and free kicks. Again allowing shots from 20 yards or so and good players get these on target.

Yep, there's a little bit about that, plus a few other factors that I could think of - although I'm sure there are also some things that I couldn't come up with, so any other thoughts are welcome

"The factors taken into account when assessing the quality of a chance (Expected goals -xG) include:

• Distance from goal
• Angle of the shot
• Did the chance fall at the player's feet or was it a header?
• Was it a one on one?
• What was the assist like? (eg long ball, cross, through ball, pull-back)
• In what passage of play did it happen? (eg open play, direct free-kick, corner kick)
• Has the player just beaten an opponent?
• Is it a rebound?"

So it doesn't take into account the position of the opposition players.
There are striking similarities between the goals we conceded recently against Brentford and then the first against Barnsley.
In both cases, all our defenders fall back towards the goal line and when the ball is half-cleared it leaves their player with time and space to take an unopposed shot at goal.

I'm not sure what the xG would be for a shot from those positions but in most cases the scorer would be under more severe pressure and therefore it's much less likely that the chance would result in a goal.
Add to that the fact that Blackman was out of position and backpedalling against Brentford and you can see at least one situation where a low xG would result in a fairly easy goal against us.

We need to start ensuring that at least one defender patrols the central area between penalty spot and box when defending set pieces.
That would have helped to prevent at least these two goals and there are probably other examples.

 

[Revolution]

"The factors taken into account when assessing the quality of a chance (Expected goals -xG) include:

• Distance from goal
• Angle of the shot
• Did the chance fall at the player's feet or was it a header?
• Was it a one on one?
• What was the assist like? (eg long ball, cross, through ball, pull-back)
• In what passage of play did it happen? (eg open play, direct free-kick, corner kick)
• Has the player just beaten an opponent?
• Is it a rebound?"

So it doesn't take into account the position of the opposition players.
There are striking similarities between the goals we conceded recently against Brentford and then the first against Barnsley.
In both cases, all our defenders fall back towards the goal line and when the ball is half-cleared it leaves their player with time and space to take an unopposed shot at goal.

I'm not sure what the xG would be for a shot from those positions but in most cases the scorer would be under more severe pressure and therefore it's much less likely that the chance would result in a goal.
Add to that the fact that Blackman was out of position and backpedalling against Brentford and you can see at least one situation where a low xG would result in a fairly easy goal against us.

We need to start ensuring that at least one defender patrols the central area between penalty spot and box when defending set pieces.
That would have helped to prevent at least these two goals and there are probably other examples.

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Bingo. When Beans last raised this in a thread, this was one of the 3 reasons why I thought our goals conceded was so out of kilter with our xG, i.e. We do not pick up enough loose balls and give the opponent too much time to set themselves and shoot. If xG isn't measuring this that reinforces my view.

We also seem bad at not clearing set pieces properly: they don't go in off the first header or shot but go in 5 or 10 seconds later. The 2 goals you highlight above are examples. So is Hull's winner.

My other 2 reasons were:

- Poor goalkeeping positioning (e.g. Moore vs Bristol City and Hull, possibly Blackman v Brum)

- A genuine small sample size fluke, i.e. Bad luck

Btw if xG is a reasonably reliable guide there's a chance we will regress to the mean and be a bit "luckier" next year. Similarly, I would back Brentford to do better if they keep the same side. Logic dictates that their shots to goals ratio has to improve!

 

[oldblade]

Well, I spent a good chunk of my Sunday writing 2500 words on Sheffield United's defence, how about you?

This has been running round my head for a while so wanted to get it into written words rather than spoken podcast ones. Essentially, I make the case that our defence has been very good this year (backed up by most metrics - shots faced, shots on target, expected goals against) and is a huge part of why we've been so high up the league for pretty much the whole season. I also think that we've been unlucky insofar as we've conceded more goals (lots more goals, in fact) than we "should" have, and I had a look at why I think that might be.

Finally, I have some reasons to be cheerful for next season - god knows we all need some of that after this weekend

Contains a fair few stats but I tried to make sure it wasn't just a dry list of numbers Be very keen to hear people's takes on WHY we've conceded more goals than we deserved (I have some too, in the article) - cheers!

Link: Sheffield United - The Case for the Defence

Interesting read, particularly the sections on long range shots.

My perception, based on no statistical evidence at all is that when opposition players receive the ball 20-30 yards out, we don't seem to regard them as posing an imminent threat and so we are not closing them down quickly enough.

Also, sometimes maybe there is a little uncertainty with regard to who should be doing the closing down, giving the attacking player that fraction more time to set himself for the shot.

 

[Groucho Blade]

It’s all a bit of a mystery to me...stats or no stats.

Sometimes I think that our defence is brilliant and then they play like they did against Barnsley. And sometimes I think they’re rubbish and they defend gods, like men possessed...

Consistency. Is it too much to ask for?

 

[Jan Age]

When we are in possession we are very good and when we’re arent we are average .... we don’t chase down enough, we don’t win enough first or 2nd balls and we certainly don’t close down on the edge of the area fast enough.

 

[AWetFlannel]

It’s all a bit of a mystery to me...stats or no stats.

Sometimes I think that our defence is brilliant and then they play like they did against Barnsley. And sometimes I think they’re rubbish and they defend gods, like men possessed...

Consistency. Is it too much to ask for?

Yes it is too much to ask for. I watched Chiellini play rubbish last week and he's one of the best CB's of this generation.

 

[robbiez666]

Interesting read, particularly the sections on long range shots.

My perception, based on no statistical evidence at all is that when opposition players receive the ball 20-30 yards out, we don't seem to regard them as posing an imminent threat and so we are not closing them down quickly enough.

Also, sometimes maybe there is a little uncertainty with regard to who should be doing the closing down, giving the attacking player that fraction more time to set himself for the shot.

I've got a theory that in League 1 this was a tactic due to the general quality of the opposition. Very occasionally we got punished, but we're up against international players now and it's something we can't afford to do. The continued backing off and allowing shots makes me incredibly angry.

 

[ucandomagic]

Any oppo set piece, put Fleck 15 yards out with responsibility for anybody in a 6 yard diameter circle and forget the ball and we have 5-10 more points this season.

 

[SUFC Handsworth]

Haven't listened yet Beans so you may cover this but we continue to let opposition players stroll through midfield at times, backing off until they take a pop at goal. We certainly don't close down loose balls quickly enough from corners and free kicks. Again allowing shots from 20 yards or so and good players get these on target.

Agree with all that pal, they lack a defensive midfield general, who'll take responsibility himself and be in the ribs of his team mates to make sure they're closing down too.

Don't agree with the OP, for me they lack a dominant leader centre half (ala Chris Morgan), who bullies the oppo centre forward and marshalls his own defence just as effectively. Basham, Stearman and O'Connell have done okay but they lack an inspiration centre half right in the middle, the glue to stick the defence together and chivies the best out of his back line. If we got someone who could fit this role he might chip in with a few at the other end too, because our corners have gone backwards this season, to the days of Clough where we might as well just take them short as opposed to giving over possession in the middle.

 

[Carlton Blade]

My tactical knowledge is pretty basic but we looked solid against Cardiff with a midfield 3 rather than a 2 + Duffy 15 yards further forward. I think if Duffy plays against the good teams we lack the athleticism to cover ground in CM. The options are push a CB forward or drop a CF back. Currently, I don't think we have the personnel to do either unless you think Clarke could play up top on his own.

I know Brooks hasn't had the individual impact we want but against Cardiff his ability to drop deeper and still be a threat up top at times meant there was an out ball for the deeper players. This stops it coming straight back when we are in transition (when most chances are created). I think this causes those big 30 yard gaps opposition players always seem to have to run in to.

 

[Stretch]

Agree with all that pal, they lack a defensive midfield general, who'll take responsibility himself and be in the ribs of his team mates to make sure they're closing down too.

Don't agree with the OP, for me they lack a dominant leader centre half (ala Chris Morgan), who bullies the oppo centre forward and marshalls his own defence just as effectively. Basham, Stearman and O'Connell have done okay but they lack an inspiration centre half right in the middle, the glue to stick the defence together and chivies the best out of his back line. If we got someone who could fit this role he might chip in with a few at the other end too, because our corners have gone backwards this season, to the days of Clough where we might as well just take them short as opposed to giving over possession in the middle.

I think the reason a lot of us were so impressed with Wright was his organisation and leadership, he doesn't have Morgs' physicality but he commands his back line. That being said he didn't come out any better than anyone else against Barnsley and Stearman has been excellent up to getting injured. It's probably an area to look at in the summer anyway.

 

[super_pig]

I've got a theory that in League 1 this was a tactic due to the general quality of the opposition. Very occasionally we got punished, but we're up against international players now and it's something we can't afford to do. The continued backing off and allowing shots makes me incredibly angry.

agree we don’t have it in the mindset yet
most shots in L1 end up on shoreham street