Title

[Aston max]

This sounds like a job for 'Permutation Man'.

Our four games and Burnley's three games have a total of 2,187 possible permutations. 4 of those allow us to finish ahead on points, 7 have us level, and 2,176 have Burnley ahead.

 

[mattbianco1]

It's not that cut and dried. Burnley's starting XI against United had 298 combined starts this season in the 39 prior games; their line up against Reading had 171. 5 players kept their place in both games (show in yellow below), of whom four (Roberts, Beyer, Cullen and Tella) were first choice with 122 combined starts while Foster made his first start against us. Two players started against us but were on the bench against Reading (shwon in green; rotation player Barnes & first choice Cork); three players did the reverse (shown in orange; rotation players Taylor, Gudmundsson and Benson). Finally, four first teamers played against us (Muric, Harwood-Bellis, Maatsen & Brownhill) but didn't get on the pitch against Reading.

All of this is moot. Kompany has 25 senior professionals in his squad and how he chooses to rotate them is up to him. There's no denying they have made a number of chances since wrapping up promotion but the upshot of those changes has been to give the fringe players gametime rather than blooding youngsters.

The only angle Warnock has is that the selection of Bailey Peacock-Farrell in goal is a clear sign of fielding a weakened team.

View attachment 158809



Yep. Three different outcomes for each game (W, D, L). Imagine if we had one game each left. The games are independent so the possible result combinations are:

W-W
W-D
W-L
D-W
D-D
D-L
L-W
L-D
L-L

Or, more simply, 3x3 or 3^2

We have four games left, Burnley 3 so the combination is simply = 3x3x3x3x3x3x3 or 3^7 = 2,187

For the next bit: Burnley are 10 points ahead of us. To overhaul them we have to win all four of our games as three wins and a draw only allows us to reach their current total of 92. They can get a maximum of 1 point from their three games if we're to stay ahead which means that the four combinations are:

United: WWWW
Burnley: LLL or DLL or LDL or LLD

To draw level either we draw one (WWWD or WWDW or WDWW or DWWW) and they lose all three (LLL) OR we win all four (WWWW) and Burnley draw two (DDL or DLD or LDD). 4+3 = 7.

BBC explains in more detail:

"The regulations also state that "from the fourth Thursday in March, any team sheet for a league game should include at least 10 outfield players who featured on the team sheet for the league game before".
The team sheet includes substitutes and Burnley had 14 players on the team sheet who had also been in the matchday squad of 18 for the previous game, a 2-0 victory over Sheffield United."

Burnley 'asked for observations' over team changes

Championship leaders Burnley are asked for their observations by the EFL after making six changes to their starting line-up for a trip to Reading.

www.bbc.co.uk

Reads like they knew exactly how far they could push it

 

[CarlMcBlade]

No chance they get a points deduction.

Not even a possibility.

Points deduction for what? Just back from Pluto

Points deduction for what? Just back from Pluto

Oi, don’t shoot the messenger spaceman.

 

[Yogi]

Worth factoring in the if we win another game we’ll likely drop off dramatically as well. Hecky jokingly said in his interview after the semi final that he’d be able to put his feet up once promotion was confirmed. If that is an attitude that’s legit and shared by the players then we may well see performance levels drop. Also worth factoring in we’d likely give some of the kids a run out.

 

[corner_flag]

BBC explains in more detail:

"The regulations also state that "from the fourth Thursday in March, any team sheet for a league game should include at least 10 outfield players who featured on the team sheet for the league game before".

Does that rule apply even if there aren't 10 players left uninjured since the previous league match?
We must have come close to that with the Shirecliffe sniper in action

 

[Geordie Blade]

Is that actually true?

It is.

Believe it or not, at the very start of the season, the number of possible permutations (excluding play off games) is 234,926,822,809,292,441,223,418,032,835,254,022,011,821,342,715,822,235,993,457,730,538,764,354,098,745,086,623,870,392,155,045,923,112,856,716,284,727,284,974,106,678,953,668,588,728,839,569,140,924,158,586,611,553,448,230,374,596,202,678,804,173,484,007,639,244,205,441,956,318,778,975,624,649,706,071,300,462,461,142,229,493,816,267,071,822,942,241

(which is 3^552).

I don't know how to say that number, but it's somewhere between a googol (10^100) and a centillion (10^303).