The Task

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ucandomagic said:
I'm sticking with Geordie's original dream, as a set of results that are not impossible, and then progressively bolting his future results on top of our actual results as they happen. That way, it produces a credible final points total from a set of not incredible future game predictions.

As you can see below, that makes Geordie's original dream now project to a 37 point season.

Keep dreamin' Geordie

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Loving the support, but I can't be clear enough that my table shows what is needed not my forecast! (Although a part of me did look at the results needed and think "yeah, come on... we can do this")
 
Here's the latest. We are still two points better off than 'needed'. However, yesterday's defeat means there is even less room for error now. 5 points from the next 5 games will keep us on par. I'm sure some will point out that the target should also be higher after Newcastle's win but I'm not getting into that - just concentrating on us.

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I'm just watching Burnley absolutely destroy Palace. We will not be catching Burnley!
 
vas borbokis said:
I'm just watching Burnley absolutely destroy Palace. We will not be catching Burnley!
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Burnley or not, it doesn't change the fact that 35 points gives you a chance.

I don't for one minute think we'll get 35 points like. Just saying Burnley winning doesn't really make any difference.
 
Working Class Hero said:
Burnley or not, it doesn't change the fact that 35 points gives you a chance.

I don't for one minute think we'll get 35 points like. Just saying Burnley winning doesn't really make any difference.
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I agree. Its not an impossible task to get 35 but is extremely unlikely. 38 or 40 is even less likely, but if we do/did get 40, 3 other teams will be below us. We can't give it up until we can't actually do it.
 
Around 30 points would be a great achievement to finish with. Were down because of the first half of the season.
 
Working Class Hero said:
Burnley or not, it doesn't change the fact that 35 points gives you a chance.

I don't for one minute think we'll get 35 points like. Just saying Burnley winning doesn't really make any difference.
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I think given the strange circumstances/results we’ll see 17th achieve mid 40’s this season.
 
SilkyBlade said:
I think given the strange circumstances/results we’ll see 17th achieve mid 40’s this season.
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No chance, that's literally never happened.

If it carries on though it could well be higher than usual. Big teams and bottom 3 dropping more points than usual.
 
So it's a forum. Everybody's entitled to their opinion, but could I suggest that anyone who wants to comment that we are down already just adds a like to the first person who posted that on this thread?

We all know what the situations is. Not one of us expects to be playing in the Prem next season, but unless you are 100% certain, there is no sense in adding another post saying 'no chance'. If you ARE 100% certain, I'll bet you a quid we stay up. You give me your house/car/contents of your bank account if we stay up*.

* conditions apply, e.g. if your name is Mousset, you can keep the Lamborghini.
 

35 -37 points probably won't be enough

The bottom three are so far behind that the other clubs have more points than they normally would

We could win nine games and get to 39 points but four wins for the other two above the relegation zone will still mean relegation

It would be just like us,

Fulham and West Brom get cut adrift and every other club including us gets 20 points above them, but we still go down on goal difference.
 
The time we should have stopped fretting about other teams around us picking up points making our escape harder was about 2 months ago, I think we should now collectively make peace with relegation and move on, and enjoy what we can of the remainder of the season, thanks for the £300m or so prem, I won't miss the diving and shitty VAR, keep the kettle warm as we will be back
 
Oh dear - not quite so rosy now. I've upped the target to 36 (admittedly it might need to be higher). Last night's loss (which was always down as a much needed point) has meant that I've had to upgrade the home game against Southampton to a 'must win'. After the West Brom game, I'd said that 5 points from the next 6 games would be an ok return. We now probably need 9 from the next 5, just to stay on target.

Still, if anyone wants to be optimistic, my original 'target' said that we needed to be on 10 points (total) by now, and we're actually on 11.

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Working Class Hero said:
No chance, that's literally never happened.

If it carries on though it could well be higher than usual. Big teams and bottom 3 dropping more points than usual.
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Has it ever happened before where all 3 teams in the relegation zone have been this far adrift at this stage of the season?

I wouldn’t be surprised to see 17th get 40 points
 
Geordie Blade - a quick thanks...

I love this “what we need” thread. It may or may not give us enough points in the end anyway, but it has made me enjoy the games a lot more since you first posted this.

I was obviously gutted to lose to both Chelsea and West Ham, but all the time I had in my head that we are ahead of the “target”, so it helped me keep things in perspective (a bit).

Clearly this effect will change if/when we fall behind the target, but thanks anyway Geordie Blade. Top work fella.
 
e17blade said:
Geordie Blade - a quick thanks...

I love this “what we need” thread. It may or may not give us enough points in the end anyway, but it has made me enjoy the games a lot more since you first posted this.

I was obviously gutted to lose to both Chelsea and West Ham, but all the time I had in my head that we are ahead of the “target”, so it helped me keep things in perspective (a bit).

Clearly this effect will change if/when we fall behind the target, but thanks anyway Geordie Blade. Top work fella.
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You've written it much better than i could Lol, but i endorse the "thanks" The time taken by some people on here to put these stats/reports together is a real credit to them all - a big well done and thanks.
 
e17blade said:
Geordie Blade - a quick thanks...

I love this “what we need” thread. It may or may not give us enough points in the end anyway, but it has made me enjoy the games a lot more since you first posted this.

I was obviously gutted to lose to both Chelsea and West Ham, but all the time I had in my head that we are ahead of the “target”, so it helped me keep things in perspective (a bit).

Clearly this effect will change if/when we fall behind the target, but thanks anyway Geordie Blade. Top work fella.
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Espania blade said:
You've written it much better than i could Lol, but i endorse the "thanks" The time taken by some people on here to put these stats/reports together is a real credit to them all - a big well done and thanks.
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Awww shucks! :rolleyes: Thanks! The perspective thing is exactly why I made the thread - as an antidote to the knee-jerk reactions after each game. I’m going to doggedly stick with it until it is all ‘W’s. I think I’ll stop once we’re banking on a points deduction for Newcastle.
 
Geordie Blade said:
Awww shucks! :rolleyes: Thanks! The perspective thing is exactly why I made the thread - as an antidote to the knee-jerk reactions after each game. I’m going to doggedly stick with it until it is all ‘W’s. I think I’ll stop once we’re banking on a points deduction for Newcastle.
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"Good lad" as my mate Brian would say!
 
Update after Fulham.

Realist corner: That's hit us hard. It's one thing losing to Chelsea or West Ham, but there really wasn't any room for error in this one, which was always down as a must win. We now have to find an extra three points from somewhere (again a reminder that this is what we need, not what I think we'll do!). It's hard to know where to get them from, but I've gone for Leicester away (we now need to avoid defeat) and Leeds away (which we now need to win). So the last 13 games would need to be W7 D4 L2.

Optimist corner: In the original column, I'd hoped that we'd be on 13 points at this stage. We're on 11. Beat an out of form Liverpool next week and we'll be ahead of schedule.

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Unfortunately that was the game we had to win. That was the last chance saloon really, not because it's now impossible, but because if we can't beat the clubs just above us then we can't be expected to go on the run we need to go on. If Wilder does pull it off, I won't now be able to say to everyone, "see, I told you so". It's a real shame that they weren't up for this game, it was a real shocker, but as far as I can see their confidence is just shot to shreds - they don't tackle, don't take players on, don't try through balls, don't pass forwards unless it's a long, hopeful hoof and the defending is headless chicken stuff. It's no wonder Wilder looks to have aged 10 years.
 

Thanks buddy. Fyi we have Villa next not Saints

Other than that good to know we can still drop 11 points over next 12 games and still somehow potentially survive 🙈
 
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